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美股专家谈何时抄底股市

REY MASHAYEHKI
2020-04-13

《财富》杂志采访道富环球投资管理公司高管,讨论当前新冠疫情及其对金融市场和整体经济的空前破坏力,以及对今后市场走向的看法。

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图片来源:JAMIE CULLEN

当我们遇到洛里·海内尔时,她与当前大多数美国专业人士一样正在远程办公。就海内尔而言,坐标宾夕法尼亚州西部,距离道富环球投资管理公司波士顿总部甚远。海内尔是这家全球最大资产管理公司的全球副首席投资官。

当谈及自己的新工作环境时,她说:“我的家人们在这里。周边基本上一个同事都没有。”听起来,她似乎已与家人适应了这种自我隔离和社交疏离的新秩序。

虽然环境颇有田园风情,但海内尔在道富的工作也存在不小的压力,她代表全球2500多家机构客户,负责管理30多亿美元的资产。作为道富全球首席投资官理查德·拉卡伊的副手,她还帮助协调资产经理面向客户的各类服务,从市场研究到投资策略和产品,同时还专注于内部治理、监管和尽职调查。

然而,当《财富》杂志采访海内尔时,我们最先要谈的就是当前的新冠疫情、其对金融市场和整体经济的空前破坏力,以及她对今后市场走向的看法。正如她所说的那样,投资者如今面对的是“一种不同的危机”,这种危机“并非来自于驱动市场的任何传统力量。”

她说:“我们所学的一切都是按照投资者的思维进行评估,当前的这一局面让我们感到不知所措。”

为简明起见,对话经过摘编。

新冠疫情爆发的规模可能让投资者感到吃惊,你对今年的形势有什么预期?对市场的走向,是持乐观态度还是悲观态度?

如果疫情持续数月,甚至数年时间,那么影响将是颠覆性的。当前在工作层面上,我们认为它会持续一个季度的时间,也有可能是两个季度,可能会在第三季度初回归常态。如果真是这样,那么被急剧抑制的需求将在2020年下半年大量释放,而那些未出现业务中断的企业可能会因此迅速赶上。这个局面非常糟糕,但我们确实认为,疫情会给我们带来一个业绩尚可的下半年,而且2021年可能会更强劲。

道富是如何代表客户应对疫情的,例如重新分配和重新调整其投资策略?

首先,我们确实降低了对于股票的过度倚重。我们有一个月度流程,每个月都会查看相对估值和情绪指标,而且我们减少了对股票的投资,但我们在这一方面依然过重,尤其是在美国。我们相信,随着估值的回落,再加上强劲的刺激举措,市场还是有一些机会的。我们十分关注大市值而不是小市值股票的前景;因为小市值股票的逆风更大一些,尤其是考虑到信用问题。

抵押担保债券面临着不小的交易压力。但从信用质量和收益来讲,既然美联储也加入了购买大军的行列,我们认为其与固定收益产品一样还是值得关注的。当前,我们对高收益率债券更为谨慎。如果客户对此依然有兴趣,我们会建议主动一些,选择标准再高一些。

我们也对黄金持仓超过一年,并没有战略性的投资分配,但我们去年一直在策略性地购买黄金。如果债券的利率接近零,那么机会成本就几乎不存在了。但黄金这种资产有着正关联性,当市场上涨时,它与股票正相关,当股市下跌时,它与股票负相关。从资产多元化角度来看,黄金的这个特性真的不错。

鉴于公司在股票方面的投资依然过重,并且看到了一定的机会,如果按行业划分,你对股票市场的前景怎么看?

我们非常看好的一个领域是医疗。在医疗政策变化的质疑声中,该行业有其自身的波动性,但我们的确认为它是市场中为数不多拥有可持续增长潜力的行业之一,而且从估值方面来看,也很有吸引力。

最近比较低迷的行业是金融。但有鉴于近期的市场调整,这里有一些非常有吸引力的企业,我们认为它们将在经济上扬时受益,而且它们如今的估值也更具吸引力。

另一个行业是公用设施。我们近些年在这一领域投资不足,但如今正在评估利率下跌情形下的市场环境。我们认为其派息比其他行业更持久。

房地产业呢?你之前曾说道富正在围绕上市房地产投资信托基金(REITs)建仓,但鉴于当前全球房地产所面临的困境,是否依然持乐观态度?

当前,我们在这一行业依然投资过多。说到这,我们增持了REITs。选择非常重要,仓储这个行业依然具有十分诱人的估值,联排别墅房产亦是如此。零售领域,我们很久之前就已失去了兴趣;大型商场也在新冠疫情出现很久之前就在承受不小的压力。

我认为,受此次危机影响,有一件事是我们必须要做,而且是不分资产类别的。对支撑我们现金流的所有假设,我们都要进行压力测试。有些公司可能在历史上一直处于正现金流状态,但其现在资金消耗的速度有多快?每一家公司是如何应对的,它们是否有充足的信贷,还是前瞻性地对现金流进行了衡量?道富团队正在非常仔细地审视这些内容。

你对美联储稳定金融市场、保持信贷融通的历史性举措怎么看?对平息投资者在市场剧烈动荡期间的恐惧方面,这些举措发挥了什么重要作用?

我们的观点是,美联储扩充资产负债表要比降息重要得多,至少目前是这样。固定收益市场一潭死水;没有人投标,连国债都没人购买。这是一个不同寻常的市场,即使资产质量再好,你也无法以任何价格出售,这对于债券来说是前所未闻的。

事实上,他们已经拓展并将继续寻找向其他小众市场拓展的机遇,甚至是市政债券,这一点至关重要。我们所处的环境没有出现信用危机,至少现在还没有,但却存在一些偿付能力的危机,受此影响,投资者即便在恐慌之余也无法撤仓。第一季度即将接近尾声,我们在季度末可能会看到市场反弹,而且大多数投资者会希望抛售固定收益资产,并购入股票。但如果他们无法出售,或必须在付出巨额成本代价后才能实现,那么将为自身带来劣势。

美联储曾经历过马里奥·德拉基所称的“不计代价”的时刻。至少此举帮助信用市场恢复了一丝信心,因为那里有一位救市的买家,对象甚至包括他们以往并不支持的资产。受此影响,美国信用市场的交易秩序好了不少。

然而,人们依然对企业信誉市场的状况充满担忧,尤其是BBB评级投资级债券,如果经济条件持续恶化,其中很多都将降级为高收益率的垃圾债券。你对此是否感到担忧,对企业债市场前景又有何看法?

可能会出现大规模降级现象,这意味着高收益率市场将得到扩张,但届时流动性也会减少,且人们购买高收益债券的兴趣会下降。在很多情况下,持有指数产品的机构投资者会在这些环境下被迫抛售其持有的资产。我们对此非常关注,而且将努力与客户合作,看看是否有回旋余地,不至于出现抛售的情况。

如果出现价格暴跌、高收益潜力颇佳的证券产品,这也不失为升级资产组合的上好机会。不过难在挑选,因为我们也很难说哪些企业所面临的困难是临时的,而且今后就能恢复其评级。与此同时,我们也不知道市场上哪些领域依然可以获得低息贷款,政府的干预将至关重要。

好消息在于,这里不存在再融资的障碍;它更多地取决于企业是否有能力实现更常态化的现金流环境。贷款合约则是另一个软肋。银行不希望马上把公司列入违约名单,它们拥有巨大的风险,而且这是银行最大的软肋之一。

你的客户对此次市场波动性,以及经济会再次陷入萧条的担忧有何反应?作为投资经理,是否曾想过用什么办法来平息他们的担忧,并引导其克服当前的不利因素?

大多数机构投资者几乎都接受过培训,不会考虑策略资产配置,他们中的大多数都会遵从其投资政策,并不断地投资。我们之间大量沟通的一项内容在于季末资产组合的重新调整。他们会根据客户的配置方式,在第一季度底进行较大程度的重新规划。在某些情况下,我们将对一些资产类别进行有选择性的重新调整,并研究一下此举会对整个资产组合带来什么影响。

我们正在做的一件事就是花时间与参与者进行沟通。客户将很快会拿到季末报表,并看到其资产余额的减少;他们看到之后还能镇定自若吗?我知道我自己是不会去看自家报表的[笑]。

最后,对刚刚进入金融服务或刚刚在这一领域开始其职业生涯的年轻人,你有什么建议,尤其是在当前这个前所未有的动荡时期?

我所学到的最重要的一件事,就是要精通自身业务,要熟悉你所掌握的事实,甘当学生,不要只读头条新闻,以为它会给你所需的信息。

要大胆为之。在这种环境下,客户都会希望听取你的建议。做足功课,然后做出判断。大多数时候,都会让客户感到满意。甘当学生,认真学习,如果你觉得已经进行了足够多的研究,就要大胆说出并捍卫自己的观点。此举有助于你更上一层楼。(财富中文网)

译者:FEB

当我们遇到洛里·海内尔时,她与当前大多数美国专业人士一样正在远程办公。就海内尔而言,坐标宾夕法尼亚州西部,距离道富环球投资管理公司波士顿总部甚远。海内尔是这家全球最大资产管理公司的全球副首席投资官。

当谈及自己的新工作环境时,她说:“我的家人们在这里。周边基本上一个同事都没有。”听起来,她似乎已与家人适应了这种自我隔离和社交疏离的新秩序。

虽然环境颇有田园风情,但海内尔在道富的工作也存在不小的压力,她代表全球2500多家机构客户,负责管理30多亿美元的资产。作为道富全球首席投资官理查德·拉卡伊的副手,她还帮助协调资产经理面向客户的各类服务,从市场研究到投资策略和产品,同时还专注于内部治理、监管和尽职调查。

然而,当《财富》杂志采访海内尔时,我们最先要谈的就是当前的新冠疫情、其对金融市场和整体经济的空前破坏力,以及她对今后市场走向的看法。正如她所说的那样,投资者如今面对的是“一种不同的危机”,这种危机“并非来自于驱动市场的任何传统力量。”

她说:“我们所学的一切都是按照投资者的思维进行评估,当前的这一局面让我们感到不知所措。”

为简明起见,对话经过摘编。

新冠疫情爆发的规模可能让投资者感到吃惊,你对今年的形势有什么预期?对市场的走向,是持乐观态度还是悲观态度?

如果疫情持续数月,甚至数年时间,那么影响将是颠覆性的。当前在工作层面上,我们认为它会持续一个季度的时间,也有可能是两个季度,可能会在第三季度初回归常态。如果真是这样,那么被急剧抑制的需求将在2020年下半年大量释放,而那些未出现业务中断的企业可能会因此迅速赶上。这个局面非常糟糕,但我们确实认为,疫情会给我们带来一个业绩尚可的下半年,而且2021年可能会更强劲。

道富是如何代表客户应对疫情的,例如重新分配和重新调整其投资策略?

首先,我们确实降低了对于股票的过度倚重。我们有一个月度流程,每个月都会查看相对估值和情绪指标,而且我们减少了对股票的投资,但我们在这一方面依然过重,尤其是在美国。我们相信,随着估值的回落,再加上强劲的刺激举措,市场还是有一些机会的。我们十分关注大市值而不是小市值股票的前景;因为小市值股票的逆风更大一些,尤其是考虑到信用问题。

抵押担保债券面临着不小的交易压力。但从信用质量和收益来讲,既然美联储也加入了购买大军的行列,我们认为其与固定收益产品一样还是值得关注的。当前,我们对高收益率债券更为谨慎。如果客户对此依然有兴趣,我们会建议主动一些,选择标准再高一些。

我们也对黄金持仓超过一年,并没有战略性的投资分配,但我们去年一直在策略性地购买黄金。如果债券的利率接近零,那么机会成本就几乎不存在了。但黄金这种资产有着正关联性,当市场上涨时,它与股票正相关,当股市下跌时,它与股票负相关。从资产多元化角度来看,黄金的这个特性真的不错。

鉴于公司在股票方面的投资依然过重,并且看到了一定的机会,如果按行业划分,你对股票市场的前景怎么看?

我们非常看好的一个领域是医疗。在医疗政策变化的质疑声中,该行业有其自身的波动性,但我们的确认为它是市场中为数不多拥有可持续增长潜力的行业之一,而且从估值方面来看,也很有吸引力。

最近比较低迷的行业是金融。但有鉴于近期的市场调整,这里有一些非常有吸引力的企业,我们认为它们将在经济上扬时受益,而且它们如今的估值也更具吸引力。

另一个行业是公用设施。我们近些年在这一领域投资不足,但如今正在评估利率下跌情形下的市场环境。我们认为其派息比其他行业更持久。

房地产业呢?你之前曾说道富正在围绕上市房地产投资信托基金(REITs)建仓,但鉴于当前全球房地产所面临的困境,是否依然持乐观态度?

当前,我们在这一行业依然投资过多。说到这,我们增持了REITs。选择非常重要,仓储这个行业依然具有十分诱人的估值,联排别墅房产亦是如此。零售领域,我们很久之前就已失去了兴趣;大型商场也在新冠疫情出现很久之前就在承受不小的压力。

我认为,受此次危机影响,有一件事是我们必须要做,而且是不分资产类别的。对支撑我们现金流的所有假设,我们都要进行压力测试。有些公司可能在历史上一直处于正现金流状态,但其现在资金消耗的速度有多快?每一家公司是如何应对的,它们是否有充足的信贷,还是前瞻性地对现金流进行了衡量?道富团队正在非常仔细地审视这些内容。

你对美联储稳定金融市场、保持信贷融通的历史性举措怎么看?对平息投资者在市场剧烈动荡期间的恐惧方面,这些举措发挥了什么重要作用?

我们的观点是,美联储扩充资产负债表要比降息重要得多,至少目前是这样。固定收益市场一潭死水;没有人投标,连国债都没人购买。这是一个不同寻常的市场,即使资产质量再好,你也无法以任何价格出售,这对于债券来说是前所未闻的。

事实上,他们已经拓展并将继续寻找向其他小众市场拓展的机遇,甚至是市政债券,这一点至关重要。我们所处的环境没有出现信用危机,至少现在还没有,但却存在一些偿付能力的危机,受此影响,投资者即便在恐慌之余也无法撤仓。第一季度即将接近尾声,我们在季度末可能会看到市场反弹,而且大多数投资者会希望抛售固定收益资产,并购入股票。但如果他们无法出售,或必须在付出巨额成本代价后才能实现,那么将为自身带来劣势。

美联储曾经历过马里奥·德拉基所称的“不计代价”的时刻。至少此举帮助信用市场恢复了一丝信心,因为那里有一位救市的买家,对象甚至包括他们以往并不支持的资产。受此影响,美国信用市场的交易秩序好了不少。

然而,人们依然对企业信誉市场的状况充满担忧,尤其是BBB评级投资级债券,如果经济条件持续恶化,其中很多都将降级为高收益率的垃圾债券。你对此是否感到担忧,对企业债市场前景又有何看法?

可能会出现大规模降级现象,这意味着高收益率市场将得到扩张,但届时流动性也会减少,且人们购买高收益债券的兴趣会下降。在很多情况下,持有指数产品的机构投资者会在这些环境下被迫抛售其持有的资产。我们对此非常关注,而且将努力与客户合作,看看是否有回旋余地,不至于出现抛售的情况。

如果出现价格暴跌、高收益潜力颇佳的证券产品,这也不失为升级资产组合的上好机会。不过难在挑选,因为我们也很难说哪些企业所面临的困难是临时的,而且今后就能恢复其评级。与此同时,我们也不知道市场上哪些领域依然可以获得低息贷款,政府的干预将至关重要。

好消息在于,这里不存在再融资的障碍;它更多地取决于企业是否有能力实现更常态化的现金流环境。贷款合约则是另一个软肋。银行不希望马上把公司列入违约名单,它们拥有巨大的风险,而且这是银行最大的软肋之一。

你的客户对此次市场波动性,以及经济会再次陷入萧条的担忧有何反应?作为投资经理,是否曾想过用什么办法来平息他们的担忧,并引导其克服当前的不利因素?

大多数机构投资者几乎都接受过培训,不会考虑策略资产配置,他们中的大多数都会遵从其投资政策,并不断地投资。我们之间大量沟通的一项内容在于季末资产组合的重新调整。他们会根据客户的配置方式,在第一季度底进行较大程度的重新规划。在某些情况下,我们将对一些资产类别进行有选择性的重新调整,并研究一下此举会对整个资产组合带来什么影响。

我们正在做的一件事就是花时间与参与者进行沟通。客户将很快会拿到季末报表,并看到其资产余额的减少;他们看到之后还能镇定自若吗?我知道我自己是不会去看自家报表的[笑]。

最后,对刚刚进入金融服务或刚刚在这一领域开始其职业生涯的年轻人,你有什么建议,尤其是在当前这个前所未有的动荡时期?

我所学到的最重要的一件事,就是要精通自身业务,要熟悉你所掌握的事实,甘当学生,不要只读头条新闻,以为它会给你所需的信息。

要大胆为之。在这种环境下,客户都会希望听取你的建议。做足功课,然后做出判断。大多数时候,都会让客户感到满意。甘当学生,认真学习,如果你觉得已经进行了足够多的研究,就要大胆说出并捍卫自己的观点。此举有助于你更上一层楼。(财富中文网)

译者:FEB

When we catch up with Lori Heinel, she, like most American professionals these days, is working remotely. In Heinel’s case, she’s holed up in western Pennsylvania—a considerable distance from the Boston headquarters of State Street Global Advisors, where she serves as deputy global chief investment officer for one of the world’s largest asset management firms.

“I have family here,” she notes of her new surroundings, which sound like they lend themselves quite well to the new norms of self-isolation and social distancing. “There’s literally nobody around.”

Though the setting may be bucolic, Heinel's job at State Street, which manages over $3 trillion on behalf on more than 2,500 institutional clients globally, is a bit more high pressure. Working alongside State Street global CIO Richard Lacaille, she helps coordinate the asset manager’s myriad client-facing services—from market research to investment strategy and products—while also focusing on internal governance, oversight, and due diligence.

But in speaking with Heinel for Fortune’s Quarterly Investment Guide, there was really one place to start: the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, its devastating impact on both the financial markets and the overall economy, and where she sees things going from here. As she notes, investors are now dealing with “a different kind of crisis”—one that “doesn’t emanate from any of the traditional things that drive the markets.”

“All of the things we’ve learned to assess as investors, this [situation] throws all of that out of the window,” she says.

This conversation has been edited and condensed for clarity.

The scope of the coronavirus outbreak may have caught investors by surprise—but now that you’ve had time to consider the possibilities, what are your expectations for how this plays out? Are you more optimistic or pessimistic about what’s in store for the markets?

If this thing goes on for months—or, God forbid, years—it’s game-changing. Our working assumption right now is that this is a one-quarter, maybe two-quarter event, where maybe by the early third quarter we get somewhat back to normal. If that’s the case, then we could have pretty sharp, pent-up demand in the second half [of 2020] that should release to the degree where corporations that haven’t seen physical disruptions can ramp up pretty quickly. It’s a terrible situation, but we do believe that it can set us up for a second half that’s pretty reasonable, and a 2021 that could be stronger.

How has State Street responded to the pandemic as far as reallocating and recalibrating its investment strategies on behalf of clients?

First off, we did reduce our overallocation on equities. We have a monthly process where we look at relative valuations and sentiment indicators, and we reduced on equities—but we remain overweight, particularly in the U.S. We do believe that with the pullback in valuations—coupled with strong stimulus measures—there is some opportunity. We focus that [outlook] on large-cap [stocks], not small-cap; we think the headwinds for small-caps are greater, especially with credit concerns.

Mortgage-backed securities have encountered a fair amount of trading stress. But from the standpoint of credit quality and yield—and with the Federal Reserve coming in to make purchases—we think they’re interesting as far as the fixed-income world. We’re more cautious about high-yield [debt] right now. If clients do retain an interest, we encourage them to go active and be more selective.

We’ve also had a position on gold for over a year now. We don’t have a strategic allocation for gold, but we’ve been buying it tactically for about the last year or so. There’s almost no opportunity cost if there are [near] zero interest rates on Treasuries, and gold is one of those [assets] that has the right correlations—it’s positively correlated to equities when the market is going up, and negatively correlated when equities are going down. That gives it nice properties from a diversification standpoint.

Given that you’re still overweight on equities and see opportunities in that asset class, what is your outlook for the stock market on a sector-by-sector basis?

A sector that we’ve been very positive on has been health care. It’s had its own choppiness amid questions about changes in health care policy, but we do think it’s one of the few areas of the market with sustainable growth, and it’s relatively attractive from a valuation standpoint.

One area that’s been painful as of late has been financials. With the recent market correction, there are some pretty attractive businesses that we think will be poised to benefit on the upturn, and which now have more attractive valuations.

And another area is utilities. We were underweight on them for a few years but are now looking at the current market environment relative to interest rates that have fallen. We think the dividends are more durable than in other industries.

What about real estate? You’ve previously spoken of State Street building a position in publicly traded real estate investment trusts (REITs)—but given the struggles currently facing the world of brick-and-mortar real estate, are you still optimistic on that sector?

At the moment we are still overweight; if anything, we have added to our position in REITs. Selection matters a lot. Warehouses continue to be an area where there are attractive valuations, as is multifamily [residential real estate]. Retail is an area that we’ve been less interested in for a long time; malls have been under pressure well before COVID-19.

What I think this crisis is leading us to do across our entire book—whether it’s real estate or anything else—is pressure-testing all of the assumptions that underlie our cash flow. There are companies that may have been cash-flow-positive historically, but what’s the burn rate right now? How is each company responding, whether they have lines of credit or are doing things proactively to measure cash flow? Our teams are looking at that very carefully right now.

What’s your perspective on the historic measures taken by the Federal Reserve to stabilize the financial markets and keep credit flowing? How important were those measures as far as assuaging investors’ fears amid severe market volatility?

Our view is that the Fed’s expansion of its balance sheet is significantly more important than its reduction in interest rates, at least right now. The fixed-income markets were seizing up; there were no bids to be found, even for Treasuries. It was an extraordinary market where you couldn’t sell even the highest quality assets for any price—that was unheard-of for Treasuries.

The fact that they extended, and continue to look at extending, to other niche areas—even municipal bonds—is also critical. We’re in an environment where there’s not a credit crisis—at least not yet—but there is a bit of a solvency crisis in the sense that investors cannot exit positions that create their own kind of panic. We’re heading to a quarter-end where we may see a rebound, and most investors are going to want to sell fixed-income [assets] and buy equities. If they can’t sell, and have to do so at draconian costs, it’s going to be disadvantageous.

The Fed had their Mario Draghi “Whatever it takes” moment, and at least that restored some degree of confidence in the credit markets that there was a buyer of last resort, even for assets that they historically have not supported. The U.S. credit markets have traded in a much more orderly way on the back of that.

Yet there continue to be concerns about the state of the corporate credit markets—particularly the sheer volume of BBB-rated investment-grade debt, much of which could be downgraded to high-yield, junk bond status should economic conditions continue to worsen. How concerned are you about these dynamics, and what is your outlook on the corporate debt space at large?

We’re likely to have massive downgrades, which means by definition that the high-yield market will expand at a time when there’s less liquidity and less interest in buying high-yield bonds. You also have, in many cases, institutional investors in indexed products who become forced sellers in those environments. We’re very much watching that and trying to work with clients on whether there is flexibility to not divest.

But it’s also a great opportunity to upgrade a portfolio, if there are fallen angels that look more impressive from a high-yield perspective. It will be a challenge to navigate. Which are the businesses where you can say that this is a temporary disruption, and they can restore their credit ratings? Where are the areas [in the market] where there is access to low-interest loans? Government intervention will matter a lot.

The good news is that there isn’t a wall of refinancings [coming due]; it’s more about [companies’] ability to get to a more normal cash-flow environment. And covenants are another vulnerability. Banks don’t want to throw companies into default right now—they have huge exposures, and that’s one of the big vulnerabilities for the banks.

How have your clients been responding to all of this market volatility and the fear that we’re slipping into another recession? As investment managers, how have you looked to assuage their concerns and guide them through these conditions?

Most institutional investors have been almost trained not to think about tactical allocations; the vast majority are following their investment policies and staying invested. The one thing we’re having a lot of conversations about is quarter-end rebalancing; depending on how [clients] were allocated, they're looking at a rebalancing of decent magnitude at the end of the [first] quarter. In some cases, we’re looking at a selective rebalancing of some asset classes and not others, and what that means from an overall profile perspective.

One of the things we’re doing is spending time on participant communication. [Clients are] going to get quarter-end statements and see declines in their balances; how do they stay buckled in? I know I’m not looking at my statement [laughs].

Lastly, what advice would you have for young people entering or starting careers in financial services, particularly at such a historically volatile time?

The most important lesson that I ever learned was to know your stuff—know your facts, be a student, and don't just read the headlines and assume that gives you the information you need.

And be bold. These are the kinds of environments where our clients are looking for advice. Do the homework and create the scenarios and make the judgments, and most of the time, that will serve your clients well. Be a student, learn—and if you feel you’ve done enough research, be bold enough to put a view out there and defend it. That will serve you well.

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