就在不久前,美国还在庆祝401(k)养老金计划中资产过百万人数创下新纪录。
截至2019年年底,波士顿投资巨头富达国际管理余额超过100万美元的401(k)和IRA客户人数达到创纪录的44.1万。与此同时,富达国际401(k)计划的平均余额达到112300美元,也创下新高。
现在呢?好吧,2020年一季度的数字还在统计,但大家都心知肚明,数据不会好看。
股市一天涨1000点,一天又能跌1000点,这让多数投资者都会反复思考一个问题:“现在该怎么办?”
由于想起经常听到的警告,即世间并不存在适合每位投资者的普适方案,所以我们专门找了退休实务专家,讨论在当前情况下该如何应对。
避免“行为偏见”
当遭逢危机时刻,人类的本能感觉是要介入其中并做些大行动。但其实没有必要。”如果每天看着自己的401(k)或听到财经媒体传播的恐慌消息,你会想,‘下滑了!我要做点什么!’”丹·索林说,他常驻佛罗里达州博尼塔斯普林斯,是一位财务顾问培训师,也是《你读过最聪明的401(k)计划》(The Smartest 401(k) Book You’ll Ever Read)一书的作者。“但如果你看都不看,自然不会太在意。我就建议人们三到六个月看一次报告。”
这一建议尤其适合年轻投资者。他常接到30多岁的人打电话来说非常担心401(k)计划,索林会给出标准回答。“别冲动,为什么要这么关心现在发生的事呢?”他问道。“你应该关心25年或30年后的价值。要放眼长远,排除所有噪音。”
根据需要更改缴款比例
往401(k)计划缴款的比例并不是凭空想的,而应根据具体情况决定。如果情况出现变化,则可以调整缴款比例。
“如果经济上遇到经济困难,比如家庭收入减少,当然可以暂时降低缴款比例。”巴尔的摩金融规划公司Facet Wealth的联合创始人布伦特·韦斯表示。“降低缴款比例并不算好事,但当前最重要的任务是巩固财务状况度过难关。”
另一种情况下,如果工作没有受到影响而且有经济能力,则可以考虑增加一两个百分点的缴款比例。“这并不意味着触底,但如果算美元平均成本,而且主要考虑10年或20年后,下跌30%后买进最后受益会相当不错。”韦斯说。
别用现金
危机中很容易出现放任自己乱花钱的现象。不过,白金汉战略财富公司的首席研究官拉里·斯韦德罗表示,这么做基本上是“放弃投资组合”。
因为未来某个时候可能重返市场,谁能说清楚会是什么时候?由于多数个人投资者都不善于把握市场时机,乱花钱可能导致结果很糟糕。
“最近出现过道琼斯指数一天内上涨了11.4%,所以如果之前一天清仓出场,现在该怎么办?”斯维德罗问道。“我认识一些人2009年离开市场,之后再也没有回来过。如果只在市场看起来安全时回来,那么市场永远不会有安全的一天。”
把将精力投入到高效研究中
如果感觉应该调整投资组合才能避免自己发疯,则要至少做些可以带来长期回报的事。
进一步解释下,近年来401(k)供应商可能也增加不少资金来源,也许部分资金按照最低比例缴纳。这些投资选择可能比过去更好。要多做些调查,考虑选择缴费比例较低的渠道,不一定要赶着现在市场恐慌情绪严重的时候,等到市场恢复正常再研究不迟。
还有一件事值得长远考虑:如果你曾在多家公司工作,很有可能在各家公司有多个401(k)计划,有些公司选择的基金很不错,有些选得很差。结果导致你很难跟踪每笔资金,保持投资计划的目标。韦斯对此建议道,可以考虑将各个账户转移并合并到单一计划里,未来掌握资金配置情况会更容易一些。
从市场历史中学习
身处危机之中,人们会感觉当前是全世界最糟糕的情况。但别惊慌失措疯狂变现,要用更宏观的视野看待事情。
根据索林计算,1928年以来市场经历过25个熊市,平均持续299天,平均损失36%。与此同时也有26个牛市,持续1003天,平均涨幅达112%。
“现在处于熊市,但一定会再迎来牛市。”索林说。“这是股票比债券获得更高回报付出的代价。如果无法处理间歇性波动,就不应该接触股票。”
利用当前重新评估风险承受能力
如果说你将能承受市场上任何危机,这其实是全世界最容易说的话。而真正去经历则要困难得多。
因此,从市场状况就可以判断出自己实际的风险承受能力。“最好不要承担超出能力的风险。”斯维德罗说。“每个人最终都会逼到极限,呼喊着‘救我出去!’然而光靠本能可做不出明智的决定,最后只会惊慌失措清仓逃离。”
这种情况要避免。如果你不能承受跌幅到30%以上,那就要考虑提升固定收益领域的投资,增加投资组合的稳定性。
尽可能避免401(k)贷款
既然已经存了一大笔钱,取出可以免费领取的新冠病毒应急资金,或利用退休金申请标准贷款可能是容易得到的救命钱。但如果不是走投无路,最好别这样做,韦斯说。
“如果申请了401(k)贷款然后丢掉工作,很快就会尝到苦果。”他说。“因为还贷的时间不会有很多年,突然间会缩短到几个月,导致经济更加困难。”虽然《新冠病毒援助、救济和经济安全法案》(CARES act)中规定的免费领取要求并不严格,但肯定会推迟退休时间,还有可能增加纳税负担。
有个方法其实比401(k)贷款,或者提前提取退休现金并导致惩罚性税收和处罚更好,就是充分了解各级政府和公司联合起来帮助人们处理当下开支的种种方式。银行在跟抵押贷款持有者合作,房东跟租房者商谈,一些信用卡公司提供无息分期付款,联邦政府也为家庭提供现金援助。考虑申请401(k)贷款前,先充分研究其他度过难关的方式。
别忽视其他退休账户
401(k)之类税前账户意味着,只要提取款项最后一定会受美国政府掌控。为了让将来的自己拥有更灵活的选择,不要把所有鸡蛋放在401(k)的篮子里,也要用一些其他退休工具。
“取钱出来时,没人会解释边际税率是多少,不过未来税率会上升的可能性比较高。”索林说。“因此,我建议将纳税策略多样化,将一部分钱存在401(k)等税前账户,一部分存在传统的IRAs账户,再拿出一部分存在Roth IRAs账户。”
索林建议,最重要的是保持深呼吸,将眼光放长远一点,不要鲁莽行事。“当前的困难终将过去。当其他人恐慌时,保持头脑清醒才是成功投资的关键。”(财富中文网)
译者:FEB
就在不久前,美国还在庆祝401(k)养老金计划中资产过百万人数创下新纪录。
截至2019年年底,波士顿投资巨头富达国际管理余额超过100万美元的401(k)和IRA客户人数达到创纪录的44.1万。与此同时,富达国际401(k)计划的平均余额达到112300美元,也创下新高。
现在呢?好吧,2020年一季度的数字还在统计,但大家都心知肚明,数据不会好看。
股市一天涨1000点,一天又能跌1000点,这让多数投资者都会反复思考一个问题:“现在该怎么办?”
由于想起经常听到的警告,即世间并不存在适合每位投资者的普适方案,所以我们专门找了退休实务专家,讨论在当前情况下该如何应对。
避免“行为偏见”
当遭逢危机时刻,人类的本能感觉是要介入其中并做些大行动。但其实没有必要。”如果每天看着自己的401(k)或听到财经媒体传播的恐慌消息,你会想,‘下滑了!我要做点什么!’”丹·索林说,他常驻佛罗里达州博尼塔斯普林斯,是一位财务顾问培训师,也是《你读过最聪明的401(k)计划》(The Smartest 401(k) Book You’ll Ever Read)一书的作者。“但如果你看都不看,自然不会太在意。我就建议人们三到六个月看一次报告。”
这一建议尤其适合年轻投资者。他常接到30多岁的人打电话来说非常担心401(k)计划,索林会给出标准回答。“别冲动,为什么要这么关心现在发生的事呢?”他问道。“你应该关心25年或30年后的价值。要放眼长远,排除所有噪音。”
根据需要更改缴款比例
往401(k)计划缴款的比例并不是凭空想的,而应根据具体情况决定。如果情况出现变化,则可以调整缴款比例。
“如果经济上遇到经济困难,比如家庭收入减少,当然可以暂时降低缴款比例。”巴尔的摩金融规划公司Facet Wealth的联合创始人布伦特·韦斯表示。“降低缴款比例并不算好事,但当前最重要的任务是巩固财务状况度过难关。”
另一种情况下,如果工作没有受到影响而且有经济能力,则可以考虑增加一两个百分点的缴款比例。“这并不意味着触底,但如果算美元平均成本,而且主要考虑10年或20年后,下跌30%后买进最后受益会相当不错。”韦斯说。
别用现金
危机中很容易出现放任自己乱花钱的现象。不过,白金汉战略财富公司的首席研究官拉里·斯韦德罗表示,这么做基本上是“放弃投资组合”。
因为未来某个时候可能重返市场,谁能说清楚会是什么时候?由于多数个人投资者都不善于把握市场时机,乱花钱可能导致结果很糟糕。
“最近出现过道琼斯指数一天内上涨了11.4%,所以如果之前一天清仓出场,现在该怎么办?”斯维德罗问道。“我认识一些人2009年离开市场,之后再也没有回来过。如果只在市场看起来安全时回来,那么市场永远不会有安全的一天。”
把将精力投入到高效研究中
如果感觉应该调整投资组合才能避免自己发疯,则要至少做些可以带来长期回报的事。
进一步解释下,近年来401(k)供应商可能也增加不少资金来源,也许部分资金按照最低比例缴纳。这些投资选择可能比过去更好。要多做些调查,考虑选择缴费比例较低的渠道,不一定要赶着现在市场恐慌情绪严重的时候,等到市场恢复正常再研究不迟。
还有一件事值得长远考虑:如果你曾在多家公司工作,很有可能在各家公司有多个401(k)计划,有些公司选择的基金很不错,有些选得很差。结果导致你很难跟踪每笔资金,保持投资计划的目标。韦斯对此建议道,可以考虑将各个账户转移并合并到单一计划里,未来掌握资金配置情况会更容易一些。
从市场历史中学习
身处危机之中,人们会感觉当前是全世界最糟糕的情况。但别惊慌失措疯狂变现,要用更宏观的视野看待事情。
根据索林计算,1928年以来市场经历过25个熊市,平均持续299天,平均损失36%。与此同时也有26个牛市,持续1003天,平均涨幅达112%。
“现在处于熊市,但一定会再迎来牛市。”索林说。“这是股票比债券获得更高回报付出的代价。如果无法处理间歇性波动,就不应该接触股票。”
利用当前重新评估风险承受能力
如果说你将能承受市场上任何危机,这其实是全世界最容易说的话。而真正去经历则要困难得多。
因此,从市场状况就可以判断出自己实际的风险承受能力。“最好不要承担超出能力的风险。”斯维德罗说。“每个人最终都会逼到极限,呼喊着‘救我出去!’然而光靠本能可做不出明智的决定,最后只会惊慌失措清仓逃离。”
这种情况要避免。如果你不能承受跌幅到30%以上,那就要考虑提升固定收益领域的投资,增加投资组合的稳定性。
尽可能避免401(k)贷款
既然已经存了一大笔钱,取出可以免费领取的新冠病毒应急资金,或利用退休金申请标准贷款可能是容易得到的救命钱。但如果不是走投无路,最好别这样做,韦斯说。
“如果申请了401(k)贷款然后丢掉工作,很快就会尝到苦果。”他说。“因为还贷的时间不会有很多年,突然间会缩短到几个月,导致经济更加困难。”虽然《新冠病毒援助、救济和经济安全法案》(CARES act)中规定的免费领取要求并不严格,但肯定会推迟退休时间,还有可能增加纳税负担。
有个方法其实比401(k)贷款,或者提前提取退休现金并导致惩罚性税收和处罚更好,就是充分了解各级政府和公司联合起来帮助人们处理当下开支的种种方式。银行在跟抵押贷款持有者合作,房东跟租房者商谈,一些信用卡公司提供无息分期付款,联邦政府也为家庭提供现金援助。考虑申请401(k)贷款前,先充分研究其他度过难关的方式。
别忽视其他退休账户
401(k)之类税前账户意味着,只要提取款项最后一定会受美国政府掌控。为了让将来的自己拥有更灵活的选择,不要把所有鸡蛋放在401(k)的篮子里,也要用一些其他退休工具。
“取钱出来时,没人会解释边际税率是多少,不过未来税率会上升的可能性比较高。”索林说。“因此,我建议将纳税策略多样化,将一部分钱存在401(k)等税前账户,一部分存在传统的IRAs账户,再拿出一部分存在Roth IRAs账户。”
索林建议,最重要的是保持深呼吸,将眼光放长远一点,不要鲁莽行事。“当前的困难终将过去。当其他人恐慌时,保持头脑清醒才是成功投资的关键。”(财富中文网)
译者:FEB
Not that long ago, in a galaxy far, far away, the nation was celebrating a record number of 401(k) millionaires.
The number of 401(k) and IRA customers with a balance of $1 million or more at Boston-based investment giant Fidelity hit a record 441,000 by the end of 2019. Meanwhile the average Fidelity 401(k) plan balance hit $112,300, also a new high.
And now? Well, numbers for 2020’s first quarter are still developing, but you know as well as we do—it’s ugly out there.
With the stock market whipsawing all over the place, up 1,000 points one day and down 1,000 the next, most investors basically have one question playing over and over in their heads: “What should I do now?”
With the usual caveats in mind—namely that there are no blanket solutions that are right for every single investor—we talked to retirement experts about how to proceed in this fearful moment.
Avoid “action bias”
It’s human nature, in moments of crisis, to think that you need to step in and take dramatic action. No, you don’t. “When you look at your 401(k) every day or listen to panic in the financial media, you think, ‘It’s down! I need to do something!’” says Dan Solin, a coach for financial advisers based in Bonita Springs, Fla., and the author of The Smartest 401(k) Book You’ll Ever Read. “But when you don’t even look, all that stuff washes out. I tell people to only look at their statements every three or six months.”
That advice is especially true for younger investors. When he gets calls from thirtysomethings who are “petrified” about their 401(k)s, Solin has a standard response. “Not to be glib, but why do you even care what is happening today?” he asks. “Your main concern should be what it is going to be worth in 25 or 30 years. So focus on the long term, and tune out all the noise.”
Change contribution levels as needed
The percentage you’re putting away in your 401(k) doesn’t come down from the heavens, it was decided by you at some point. And if circumstances have changed, you can tweak that percentage.
“If you are experiencing some financial hardship, like income reduction in the household, it’s absolutely fine to reduce your contributions temporarily,” says Brent Weiss, cofounder of Baltimore financial planning firm Facet Wealth. “It’s not ideal, but your first step is to shore up your finances to get through this.”
On the flip side of that, if your job hasn’t been affected and you are financially able, you could consider upping your contributions by a percent or two. “It’s not calling a bottom, but if you’re dollar-cost averaging in and you’re thinking about 10 or 20 years from now, buying after a 30% dip will ultimately be a very good thing,” says Weiss.
Don’t go to cash.
It may seem like the simplest solution, to just throw up your hands and dash into cash. But you’re basically committing “portfolio suicide,” says Larry Swedroe, chief research officer with Buckingham Strategic Wealth.
Because presumably you are going to get back into the market at some point—and when is that going to be, precisely? Since most individual investors are notoriously bad at timing the market, that will likely be a bad choice, too.
“We recently had a day where the Dow was up 11.4% in one day—so if you got out the day before, now what the hell are you going to do?” asks Swedroe. “I know people who got out in 2009 and have never gotten back in. If you think you’re just going to get back in when the market looks safe—well, the market never looks safe.”
Channel your energy into productive research
If you feel you need to do something with your portfolio, to keep yourself from going crazy, at least take on something that will pay long-term dividends.
To wit: In recent years your 401(k) provider may have added more funds to its roster, perhaps some with rock-bottom expense ratios. Those might be superior choices to the funds you chose in the past. Do that research legwork, and consider moving into those lower-fee options—not necessarily now, at the height of market panic, but when things have normalized.
Another productive task for the long term: It’s very possible that you have multiple 401(k)s at different firms, if you have worked at a number of companies over the course of your career—some with good fund options, and some with poor ones. That makes it difficult to keep track of everything and stay on target for your investment plan. Consider moving those accounts and consolidating into a single plan, advises Weiss, which will make it much easier to stay on top of allocations in future.
Learn from market history
In the midst of a crisis, it can feel like the worst thing the world has ever gone through. But put things in a broader perspective before you freak out and go to cash.
According to Solin’s calculations, since 1928 we have had 25 bear markets, with an average length of 299 days and an average loss of 36%. Meanwhile we have had 26 bull markets, which lasted 1,003 days and gained 112%, on average.
“So we’re in a bear market now, but there will be a time again when we will be in a bull,” Solin says. “This is the price we pay to get the superior returns of stocks over bonds. And if you can’t deal with that intermittent volatility, then you shouldn’t be exposed to stocks.”
Use this moment to reassess your risk tolerance
It’s the easiest thing in the world to say that you would be able to endure any market crisis. It’s much harder to actually go through it.
So this market moment may be teaching you about what your risk tolerance actually is. “You’d better not take on more risk than you can stomach,” says Swedroe. “Every stomach eventually reaches the GMO point—‘Get me out!’—and stomachs don’t make good decisions, because you’ll just panic and sell.”
That’s the scenario you’re trying to avoid. If you’re not able to withstand a 30%-plus drop, consider bumping up your fixed-income allocation, to give your portfolio more ballast.
Avoid 401(k) loans if you can
With a pot of money sitting right there, taking out a penalty-free coronavirus distribution or a standard loan against your retirement holdings can seem like an easy financial lifeline to grab onto. But don’t do it if you don’t have to, says Weiss.
“If you take a 401(k) loan and then lose your job, that becomes immediately due,” he says. “Instead of having years to pay it back, suddenly you only have a few months—which could add to your financial hardship.” While the penalty-free distributions allowed under the CARES act don't have such stringent rules, they can certainly set back your retirement timeline, and may result in a tax bill.
A better alternative to a 401(k) loan, or taking retirement cash out early and getting hit with punishing taxes and penalties: Keep on top of the many ways that levels of government and companies are coming together to help people deal with immediate expenses. Lenders are working with mortgage holders, landlords are working with renters, some credit-card companies are offering skipped payments without interest, and the federal government is putting together cash assistance for families. Explore options like those before having to raid your 401(k).
Don’t neglect other retirement accounts
Pretax accounts like 401(k)s mean that you will eventually get hit by Uncle Sam when you withdraw money on the other end. To give yourself more flexibility in future, don’t put all your eggs in the 401(k) basket, but make sure to utilize other retirement vehicles as well.
“No one can tell you what marginal tax rates will be when you take that money out, but it would be reasonable to assume rates will go up in future,” says Solin. “So I would diversify your tax strategy, with some money in pretax accounts like 401(k)s, some in traditional IRAs, and some in Roth IRAs.”
Most important, advises Solin: Take a breath, keep a long-term view, and don’t do anything rash. “This too shall pass. Keeping your head when everyone else is losing theirs, is the key to investment success.”