本周许多美国人一觉醒来后发现,银行账户中多了1200美元或者更多。
通常情况下,这本应是欢天喜地的大好事,但许多美国却人高兴不起来。过去几周他们的生活彻底乱套了:非必须行业纷纷关门歇业,员工们缩在家中办公,失业率大幅攀升。那些看起来很普通很日常的活动也都被叫停了,直至进一步通知的下达。
穆迪分析公司的经济学家马克·赞迪最近发表报告称:“商业停摆扰乱了供应端,这是迄今为止经济受重创的最主要因素。”不过,来自需求端(家庭正缩减支出)的负面影响也开始显现。
人生突然脱轨,这让许多美国人无所适从。如果说黑暗中尚存些许光亮的话,那就是最近通过的《冠状病毒援助、救济和经济安全法案》了,政府将投入2.2万亿美元来刺激经济:中低收入的美国人可收到1200美元(夫妇为2400美元)的经济刺激支票,外加每个受抚养人500美元。
“刺激”这一词用在这里实在耐人寻味。在密歇根大学经济学家贾斯汀·沃尔夫斯看来,政府发放的这些支票跟以往的经济刺激措施不一样,并非为了使消费者进店购物或者刺激消费,实际上是为了帮助民众渡过难关。
“经济衰退不同以往,刺激措施也大不同。”沃尔夫斯对《财富》杂志说,“这是一场因政府要求民众停工歇业、远离商店而造成的经济衰退。”
谈及刺激措施和减税对经济的影响时,德意志银行的美国高级经济学家布雷特·瑞安指出了其中存在的“乘数效应”。
从本质上来说,这种效应是由于注入支出而产生的国内生产总值的增长。瑞安说,在市场连锁反应下,经济刺激的乘数效应在0.3美元至0.8美元之间——或者换句话说,依据你对每一美元补贴的使用情况,这一美元还能再产生0.3美元至0.8美元的效益。
瑞安称,使用现金补贴的措施表明,政府“在对经济采取应急之策”。他告诉《财富》杂志,这意味着政府拿不出多少手段来刺激经济,只能修补一下流动性缺口。现金补贴最主要的目的就是“帮民众活下去”,现时交房租、买食物以及支付其它账单是重中之重。
不过,对于基本上陷入停顿的经济,乘数效应若能达到0.8美元这一目标,当然是最好不过了。一些经济学家说,为了达到这个目标,民众应尽量把钱花在本土商家身上。
让每一块钱发挥最大作用。
有些研究表明,把钱花在本地商店,乘数效应会更显著。缅因州经济政策中心在2011年进行的一项研究发现,在本地企业身上消费100美元,对当地经济就会产生58美元的额外效益,而在连锁商店(即使是你家旁边的连锁店)则为33美元。原因是,本土企业老板更可能将赚到的钱再次投入到当地经济中,从而开启良性循环。在新冠疫情造成的停工歇业期间,把钱花在本地商家身上,有助于它们渡过难关。
哥伦比亚大学巴纳德学院的经济学助理教授贝琳达·阿奇邦指出,过往探讨现金补助的广泛影响研究表明,当民众只会把钱花在食物、住房、衣服等必需品中(正如他们现在所做的那样),而不是去帮衬本地商家时,将对宏观经济产生极大的冲击。”
经济学家建议,如果你平时经常出外就餐,那就继续出外就餐,而不是叫外卖或者把钱捐给本地超市、餐馆和咖啡店。
阿奇邦教授指出,这样“你的补助金才能发挥最大的宏观溢出效应。(现金补助)不仅帮助了你,还可以帮到本地商家。”当谈及乘数效应时,她说,经济学家从两个层面考虑这个问题:国内生产总值及其分配(流向不同区域、企业、个人和家庭的份额)。
“如果把钱尽量花在本地,那么相比花在亚马逊等大型企业身上,花在本地的商家、企业、产品身上产生的效益确实更大,对本地经济有着非常积极的影响。”阿奇邦教授说。她住在纽约布朗克斯区,自己就经常光顾附近一家当地人开的韩国杂货店。
而Bankrate.com的首席经济分析师马克·汉姆里克则对《财富》杂志说,在消费应该具有怎样的社会责任这个问题上,每个人都会有不同的态度。汉姆里克一直在帮衬华盛顿特区一家本地人开的意大利餐馆,从那里购买外带食品,他说“大家都想尽力帮助这个餐馆”。
很多人或许情愿安坐家中,想买什么就上亚马逊等购物网站。一些经济学家说,在封锁措施仍然实施的情况下,这样的做法弊大于利。
密歇根大学的沃尔夫斯指出,亚马逊的送货业务其实已经超负荷运转了。“因此,现在不要买新沙发了。”他说。他建议等限制令取消后再去买。
德意志银行的瑞安补充道,如果财力允许且有打算,那现在就预订明年的旅游出行和机票,让相关企业增加收入和现金流。“提前预订有助于帮助一些企业熬过难关。”他说。
然而限制封锁措施取消后,民众的消费能否恢复到之前的力度呢?
沃尔夫斯的答案很简短:“没人知道。”一旦限制措施取消,德意志银行的瑞安推测“市场将迎来民众受抑制的需求”,然而“不幸的是,在经历这么大的冲击之后,得经过好几年,消费者信心才能恢复到之前的水平”。
一些经济学家表示,这一轮的刺激措施,暂时对整个经济的作用不会太大。密歇根大学的沃尔夫斯说:“大家要做的就是多花钱,给家人买健康、买快乐、买食物。”(财富中文网)
译者:李耀和
本周许多美国人一觉醒来后发现,银行账户中多了1200美元或者更多。
通常情况下,这本应是欢天喜地的大好事,但许多美国却人高兴不起来。过去几周他们的生活彻底乱套了:非必须行业纷纷关门歇业,员工们缩在家中办公,失业率大幅攀升。那些看起来很普通很日常的活动也都被叫停了,直至进一步通知的下达。
穆迪分析公司的经济学家马克·赞迪最近发表报告称:“商业停摆扰乱了供应端,这是迄今为止经济受重创的最主要因素。”不过,来自需求端(家庭正缩减支出)的负面影响也开始显现。
人生突然脱轨,这让许多美国人无所适从。如果说黑暗中尚存些许光亮的话,那就是最近通过的《冠状病毒援助、救济和经济安全法案》了,政府将投入2.2万亿美元来刺激经济:中低收入的美国人可收到1200美元(夫妇为2400美元)的经济刺激支票,外加每个受抚养人500美元。
“刺激”这一词用在这里实在耐人寻味。在密歇根大学经济学家贾斯汀·沃尔夫斯看来,政府发放的这些支票跟以往的经济刺激措施不一样,并非为了使消费者进店购物或者刺激消费,实际上是为了帮助民众渡过难关。
“经济衰退不同以往,刺激措施也大不同。”沃尔夫斯对《财富》杂志说,“这是一场因政府要求民众停工歇业、远离商店而造成的经济衰退。”
谈及刺激措施和减税对经济的影响时,德意志银行的美国高级经济学家布雷特·瑞安指出了其中存在的“乘数效应”。
从本质上来说,这种效应是由于注入支出而产生的国内生产总值的增长。瑞安说,在市场连锁反应下,经济刺激的乘数效应在0.3美元至0.8美元之间——或者换句话说,依据你对每一美元补贴的使用情况,这一美元还能再产生0.3美元至0.8美元的效益。
瑞安称,使用现金补贴的措施表明,政府“在对经济采取应急之策”。他告诉《财富》杂志,这意味着政府拿不出多少手段来刺激经济,只能修补一下流动性缺口。现金补贴最主要的目的就是“帮民众活下去”,现时交房租、买食物以及支付其它账单是重中之重。
不过,对于基本上陷入停顿的经济,乘数效应若能达到0.8美元这一目标,当然是最好不过了。一些经济学家说,为了达到这个目标,民众应尽量把钱花在本土商家身上。
让每一块钱发挥最大作用。
有些研究表明,把钱花在本地商店,乘数效应会更显著。缅因州经济政策中心在2011年进行的一项研究发现,在本地企业身上消费100美元,对当地经济就会产生58美元的额外效益,而在连锁商店(即使是你家旁边的连锁店)则为33美元。原因是,本土企业老板更可能将赚到的钱再次投入到当地经济中,从而开启良性循环。在新冠疫情造成的停工歇业期间,把钱花在本地商家身上,有助于它们渡过难关。
哥伦比亚大学巴纳德学院的经济学助理教授贝琳达·阿奇邦指出,过往探讨现金补助的广泛影响研究表明,当民众只会把钱花在食物、住房、衣服等必需品中(正如他们现在所做的那样),而不是去帮衬本地商家时,将对宏观经济产生极大的冲击。”
经济学家建议,如果你平时经常出外就餐,那就继续出外就餐,而不是叫外卖或者把钱捐给本地超市、餐馆和咖啡店。
阿奇邦教授指出,这样“你的补助金才能发挥最大的宏观溢出效应。(现金补助)不仅帮助了你,还可以帮到本地商家。”当谈及乘数效应时,她说,经济学家从两个层面考虑这个问题:国内生产总值及其分配(流向不同区域、企业、个人和家庭的份额)。
“如果把钱尽量花在本地,那么相比花在亚马逊等大型企业身上,花在本地的商家、企业、产品身上产生的效益确实更大,对本地经济有着非常积极的影响。”阿奇邦教授说。她住在纽约布朗克斯区,自己就经常光顾附近一家当地人开的韩国杂货店。
而Bankrate.com的首席经济分析师马克·汉姆里克则对《财富》杂志说,在消费应该具有怎样的社会责任这个问题上,每个人都会有不同的态度。汉姆里克一直在帮衬华盛顿特区一家本地人开的意大利餐馆,从那里购买外带食品,他说“大家都想尽力帮助这个餐馆”。
很多人或许情愿安坐家中,想买什么就上亚马逊等购物网站。一些经济学家说,在封锁措施仍然实施的情况下,这样的做法弊大于利。
密歇根大学的沃尔夫斯指出,亚马逊的送货业务其实已经超负荷运转了。“因此,现在不要买新沙发了。”他说。他建议等限制令取消后再去买。
德意志银行的瑞安补充道,如果财力允许且有打算,那现在就预订明年的旅游出行和机票,让相关企业增加收入和现金流。“提前预订有助于帮助一些企业熬过难关。”他说。
然而限制封锁措施取消后,民众的消费能否恢复到之前的力度呢?
沃尔夫斯的答案很简短:“没人知道。”一旦限制措施取消,德意志银行的瑞安推测“市场将迎来民众受抑制的需求”,然而“不幸的是,在经历这么大的冲击之后,得经过好几年,消费者信心才能恢复到之前的水平”。
一些经济学家表示,这一轮的刺激措施,暂时对整个经济的作用不会太大。密歇根大学的沃尔夫斯说:“大家要做的就是多花钱,给家人买健康、买快乐、买食物。”(财富中文网)
译者:李耀和
Many Americans woke up this week with an extra $1,200 (or more) in their bank accounts.
In ordinary circumstances, it would likely be a reason to rejoice—but for the majority of Americans everywhere, the past few weeks have meant a complete overhaul of their lives: Nonessential businesses are closed, many employees are working from home, and unemployment is on the rise. Activities that seemed so normal, mundane even, have been put on pause until further notice.
According to a recent report by Moody's Analytics' economist Mark Zandi, "The damage to the economy to date has been mostly the result of the supply-side shock from the business shutdowns." But, the demand-side of the equation (households pulling back on their spending) "is just now hitting."
If there was one meager bright spot for many Americans adjusting to this temporary new way of life, it's the recent passage of the CARES Act and a $2.2 trillion stimulus package, that will provide low-and-middle income Americans with either $1,200 or $2,400 (for couples) stimulus checks, plus an additional $500 for every dependent.
But "stimulus" is an interesting word to use here. In fact, for Justin Wolfers, an economist at the University of Michigan, these checks aren't meant to get consumers into shops or stimulate spending, in the way a normal stimulus package would: they're intended for survival.
"This recession is different, which means this stimulus package is different," Wolfers tells Fortune. "This is a recession caused by the government wanting to get people out of work and out of the stores."
When it comes to thinking about the impact things like stimulus packages and tax cuts have on the economy, those like Deutsche Bank's senior U.S. economist Brett Ryan point out the "multiplier effect."
Essentially, the effect is an increase in the total GDP resulting from an injection of spending. Through a ripple effect, Ryan notes that multiples for economic stimulus are anywhere from $0.30 to $0.80 to the dollar—or, in other words, depending on how you spend each dollar of your stimulus check, it can go on to generate another $0.30-$0.80 cents.
With the checks, says Deutsche Bank's Ryan, the government is "in triage mode for the economy." That means "There’s not much you can do right now to spur on the economy—it’s all about covering a liquidity gap right now," he tells Fortune. And first and foremost, these cash grants were intended to "get people by," he notes—paying for rent, food, and other bills is the top priority.
But obviously, for an economy that has basically ground to a halt, getting closer to $0.80 to the dollar is the goal. And for those who are able, say some economists, one way is to spend your dollars locally.
Get the most bang for your stimulus bucks
Some studies suggest the multiplier effect may be more pronounced when you shop local. One study conducted in 2011 by the Maine Center for Economic Policy found that every $100 spent at locally owned businesses contributed an additional $58 to the local economy, versus $33 if spent at a chain store, even one located near you. The idea being, that local business owner is much more likely to put the proceeds from the transaction back into the local economy again, kicking off a virtuous cycle. And during the coronavirus shutdown, supporting your local businesses could help keep them afloat.
"One of the things that we’ve seen from previous studies in economics looking at the impacts of cash grants generally, is that where they’re having the biggest macroeconomic impact is when you see people spending as they would already be spending on necessities like food and housing and clothes and all of that, but directing your spending toward local businesses," notes Belinda Archibong, assistant economics professor at Barnard College of Columbia University.
If, in ordinary times, you went out to eat frequently, economists suggest keeping up those normal expenditures, instead getting takeout or donating to local supermarkets, restaurants, and coffee shops.
That's "where your stimulus money can have the biggest macro spillover effects," notes Archibong. "[The checks are] not just helping you but your local businesses as well." When it comes to the multiplier effect, Archibong says economists think of it in two ways: the big pie (GDP), and the distribution of the pie (how much is going to different regions, businesses, individuals, and households).
"If you spend more money locally, then yes, that distribution to local employers and local businesses and local producers will benefit more relative to the big Amazons and the big huge firms, which is a significant positive impact to these local economies," she says. For her part, Archibong is frequenting a local Korean grocery store in her neighborhood in the Bronx.
Others like Mark Hamrick, chief economic analyst at Bankrate.com, think each person is going to have a different response "to ultimately what they might view as their social responsibility connected to spending," he tells Fortune. Hamrick has been getting takeout from a locally-owned Italian restaurant "that we want to try to help," in the D.C. area.
While it may be tempting to spend your extra time at home online shopping on sites like Amazon, some economists suggest that may be doing more harm than good while restrictions remain in place.
In fact, the University of Michigan's Wolfers points out that Amazon delivery, for example, is already overloaded. "So, no, don’t buy a new couch today," he advises. Buy that "new couch the day the orders are lifted."
Deutsche's Ryan adds that, if you have the means and the visibility, booking travel and airline tickets now (for later in the year) could help companies' revenue and cash liquidity. "Booking things way in advance would be something to do that kind of helps companies get through," he says.
But once those restrictions are lifted, will consumer spending return to its former strength?
In short, Wolfers says, "No one has a clue." Others like Deutsche's Ryan speculate "You’re going to have the pent up demand," once restrictions are lifted, but "It takes years, unfortunately, to get [consumer] confidence back to those previous levels once people have experienced such a large shock."
While economists suggest this round of stimulus likely won't have too big an impact on the economy on the whole, for now, notes University of Michigan's Wolfers: "What you should do is spend money to keep your family healthy, happy, eating."