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美国2200万人下岗,而欧洲选择了另一条路

Adrian Croft
2020-04-25

英国实施了“休假计划”。与美国工人的休假不同,英国工人即便休假也还有工资可领。

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3月初,随着英国政府开始推行社交疏离政策,许多企业难以支撑纷纷关门歇业,和大多数英国公司一样,Volcano Coffee Works对此深感错愕。

Volcano Coffee Works是一家专营特制咖啡的公司,旗下拥有两处咖啡烘焙厂和一家咖啡厅,领薪员工31人。疫情爆发时,该公司的批发业务正在快速增长,客户遍布英国各地,既有旅馆、餐厅,也有咖啡厅。该公司的主席艾玛·洛伊塞尔介绍说:“受疫情影响,我们的订单量在一周之内就下滑了91%。”

洛伊塞尔告诉《财富》杂志:“我觉得自己对公司员工负有责任。我们是一个家族企业,成绩的背后是每一个人艰辛的付出。失去这些无疑是一场悲剧。”

幸而,悲剧并未发生。

这是因为政府将从即日起开始支付洛伊塞尔员工的大部分工资。根据英国政府推出的纾困方案,对于所有受到疫情冲击的企业,政府将补贴其80%的员工工资,每人每月最高2500英镑,放眼所有发达国家,这都可以算是最慷慨的纾困方案之一。

英国人将这项举措称为“休假计划”。与美国工人的休假不同,英国工人即便休假也还有工资可领。

英国政府推出这项举措是为了防止像美国一样出现失业率飙升的情况,仅在过去的一个月中,美国便有2200万人申请了失业救济,在创下历史纪录的同时也将美国的真实失业率推升至17.9%,如此严重的失业状况自大萧条以来前所未见。

洛伊塞尔表示,如果没有英国政府的纾困措施,“我们将不得不立即进行大规模裁员”。

保障薪水

受新冠疫情影响,数以亿计的欧洲人被迫禁足家中,很多经济部门陷入停滞,欧洲的就业市场也承受了巨大压力。

但许多经济学家认为,欧洲失业率上升的情况不会像美国那样严重,持续时间也会更短。原因很简单:多数欧洲政府都在为私营企业的员工开支提供补贴,如果没有这项举措,数以百万计的私营部门员工或将因为经济不景气而丢掉自己的工作。

国际货币基金组织在上周预测,美国的失业率将从2019年远低于欧元区的3.7%上升至2020年的10.4%,达到与19个欧元区国家相当的水平,而到2021年,美国的失业率将会超过欧元区。

现在没有人知道美国的失业状况究竟会恶化到何种程度。据圣路易斯联邦储备银行的经济学家米格尔·法里亚-卡斯特罗估计,今年第二季度,美国可能会有4700万人失去自己的工作,失业率也将进一步飙高至32%。

法里亚-卡斯特罗的计算没有考虑政府为保就业而推出各项纾困计划的影响,但当看到新闻头条上,从航空公司到梅西百货等零售商以及酒店和赌场运营商,再到万豪和米高梅等企业的众多裁员消息后,很难说美国失业状况的底部究竟在哪。

在欧洲多数国家,政府希望尽可能避免企业裁员,哪怕最后要由政府(实际上是纳税人)来为此买单。德国贝伦贝格银行的经济学家表示,通过鼓励企业在危机期间留住工人,欧洲企业或能在限制令解除,工厂、办公场所、学校和餐馆重新开放后快速恢复正常运营。这些经济学家表示,欧洲方案还能降低高失业率让短期经济冲击变为长期经济衰退的风险。

在最近的一份投资者报告中,贝伦贝格的经济学家们写道:“在许多方面,美国的企业家精神、激烈竞争和充满活力的市场都值得体制相对僵化的欧洲学习。但就控制疫情期间的大规模失业问题,美国可以学习一些欧洲的经验。”

德国的“工作补贴”方案

欧洲方案的原型是德国为补贴工时损失而创立的“kurzarbeit”计划(短工津贴计划-译者注)。人们普遍认为是这一计划降低了2008-09年金融危机对德国的影响。贝伦贝格指出,作为欧洲最大的经济体,德国当时损失的就业岗位比美国要少得多,就业市场恢复到危机前水平所花的时间也比美国短了好几年。

包括法国、意大利、荷兰、西班牙、英国与丹麦在内,许多欧洲国家这次都采取了与德国模式相似的应对方案。

2020年4月20日星期一,一名戴着防护口罩的员工在位于德国吕塞尔斯海姆的展厅中移除欧宝雅特展车旁的警戒线。上月,德国企业、工厂也采取了关闭措施,但由于政府支付了企业员工的部分薪水,裁员情况被控制在了最低水平。图片来源:ALEX KRAUS—BLOOMBERG/GETTY IMAGES

各国的具体方案有所不同。德国政府向受疫情影响的雇主提供的补贴高达工人净工资的67%。法国政府的补贴则达到了工人净工资的84%,如果员工领的是最低工资,那么这笔钱将完全由政府支付,而根据意大利推出的工资补贴(Cassa integrazione guaadagn)方案,政府将最多支付9周的员工工资,支付比例为80%。

这些所谓的“短期就业补贴方案”让企业能够留住熟练的技术工人,避免了经济回暖时企业因重新招聘、培训所需承担的费用和时间成本。但是这种全面放水的政策也有自己的缺点。

这是否是一项明智的投资?

批评人士认为,此类政策最大的问题在于有可能造成经济扭曲,把原本可以投入到更具活力产业的资源用于拯救经营不善的企业或者留住夕阳产业(如实体零售)的工作机会。

政府介入、补贴私营部门员工工资似乎与美国灵活的劳动力市场所奉行的自由市场精神相违背,后者往往在经济低迷时迅速裁员,而在经济繁荣时大幅增加就业。

但也有经济学家表示,美、欧在疫情期间为应对就业市场冲击所采取的措施的差距并没有表面上看起来那么大。

在接受《财富》杂志采访时,凯投宏观的高级美国经济学家安德鲁·亨特说:“我猜大家都认为美国在保就业方面做得太少了,过去几周这种前所未见的失业潮更是进一步加深了这一印象。相反,我觉得美国其实做了很多,只是在针对的目标上跟许多欧洲国家不太一样。”

美国方案

他表示,美国薪资保护计划为小微企业提供了3500亿美元的贷款,只要这些企业不裁员,该笔贷款将被豁免,这一计划与欧洲国家的补贴计划在本质上是非常相似的,只是企业申请的步骤稍微麻烦一些。

“美国方案的另一个关键点在于其大幅扩大了失业保险的覆盖范围。”安德鲁指出,2.2万亿美元的经济刺激方案(CARES Act)提供了(比欧洲方案)更为慷慨的失业福利,覆盖面也更广,兼职员工和零工经济的从业人员也能从中受益。

纽约大学斯特恩商学院的经济学教授尼古拉斯·埃科诺米蒂斯表示,在讨论劳动力市场相关政策时,规模是重要的考量因素。

美国经济刺激方案的规模相当于其GDP的10%,而且现在还在讨论要不要进一步扩大规模,“而欧元区刺激方案的规模仅为约5000亿欧元,还不到欧元区GDP的5%。我觉得这是完全不够的。”他在接受《财富》杂志采访时如是说。

埃科诺米蒂斯表示,在最理想的情况下,许多申请失业救济金的美国人未来将会回到原来的岗位上,或者能够找到新的工作。但是否真能如此则取决于他们失业时间的长短。

埃科诺米蒂斯说:“如果失业一、两个月或者两个半月,那么我认为绝大多数人都能回到自己原来的岗位上,但是如果失业三个月或更长时间,就不好说了。在我看来,就业市场要想回到疫情之前的水平可能还需要一段时间。”

成绩显著

凯投宏观指出,截至目前,欧洲短期就业补贴方案已取得显著成绩,在法国,相关方案已覆盖400万名工人,另据估计,约62万家西班牙企业(有近300万名工人)已经申请了西班牙的短期就业补贴。

但成功总要付出代价。如果经济低迷的状况再持续几个月,那么债务缠身的欧洲政府势必难以继续推行补助计划。也正因此,财政鹰派人士格外关注都有哪些机构申请了相关纾困计划。欧洲冠军利物浦便是在其纾困申请招致球迷猛烈抨击之后最终选择了退出。

上周一,英国政府的“带薪休假”计划正式生效,Volcano Coffee Works的洛伊塞尔可以缓口气了。哪怕该计划只是延迟几天,下个付薪周期的钱就得由企业来出。

她在政府确认启动日期前表示:“不是说我们不相信政府会提供援助,只是对于中小企业而言,现金流是很现实的问题,错过时机,企业规划管理自身以撑过疫情的难度将大为增加。”

对任何人来说,处理薪资问题都殊非易事,更何况面前摆放的是整个国家的工资单。(财富中文网)

译者:Feb

3月初,随着英国政府开始推行社交疏离政策,许多企业难以支撑纷纷关门歇业,和大多数英国公司一样,Volcano Coffee Works对此深感错愕。

Volcano Coffee Works是一家专营特制咖啡的公司,旗下拥有两处咖啡烘焙厂和一家咖啡厅,领薪员工31人。疫情爆发时,该公司的批发业务正在快速增长,客户遍布英国各地,既有旅馆、餐厅,也有咖啡厅。该公司的主席艾玛·洛伊塞尔介绍说:“受疫情影响,我们的订单量在一周之内就下滑了91%。”

洛伊塞尔告诉《财富》杂志:“我觉得自己对公司员工负有责任。我们是一个家族企业,成绩的背后是每一个人艰辛的付出。失去这些无疑是一场悲剧。”

幸而,悲剧并未发生。

这是因为政府将从即日起开始支付洛伊塞尔员工的大部分工资。根据英国政府推出的纾困方案,对于所有受到疫情冲击的企业,政府将补贴其80%的员工工资,每人每月最高2500英镑,放眼所有发达国家,这都可以算是最慷慨的纾困方案之一。

英国人将这项举措称为“休假计划”。与美国工人的休假不同,英国工人即便休假也还有工资可领。

英国政府推出这项举措是为了防止像美国一样出现失业率飙升的情况,仅在过去的一个月中,美国便有2200万人申请了失业救济,在创下历史纪录的同时也将美国的真实失业率推升至17.9%,如此严重的失业状况自大萧条以来前所未见。

洛伊塞尔表示,如果没有英国政府的纾困措施,“我们将不得不立即进行大规模裁员”。

保障薪水

受新冠疫情影响,数以亿计的欧洲人被迫禁足家中,很多经济部门陷入停滞,欧洲的就业市场也承受了巨大压力。

但许多经济学家认为,欧洲失业率上升的情况不会像美国那样严重,持续时间也会更短。原因很简单:多数欧洲政府都在为私营企业的员工开支提供补贴,如果没有这项举措,数以百万计的私营部门员工或将因为经济不景气而丢掉自己的工作。

国际货币基金组织在上周预测,美国的失业率将从2019年远低于欧元区的3.7%上升至2020年的10.4%,达到与19个欧元区国家相当的水平,而到2021年,美国的失业率将会超过欧元区。

现在没有人知道美国的失业状况究竟会恶化到何种程度。据圣路易斯联邦储备银行的经济学家米格尔·法里亚-卡斯特罗估计,今年第二季度,美国可能会有4700万人失去自己的工作,失业率也将进一步飙高至32%。

法里亚-卡斯特罗的计算没有考虑政府为保就业而推出各项纾困计划的影响,但当看到新闻头条上,从航空公司到梅西百货等零售商以及酒店和赌场运营商,再到万豪和米高梅等企业的众多裁员消息后,很难说美国失业状况的底部究竟在哪。

在欧洲多数国家,政府希望尽可能避免企业裁员,哪怕最后要由政府(实际上是纳税人)来为此买单。德国贝伦贝格银行的经济学家表示,通过鼓励企业在危机期间留住工人,欧洲企业或能在限制令解除,工厂、办公场所、学校和餐馆重新开放后快速恢复正常运营。这些经济学家表示,欧洲方案还能降低高失业率让短期经济冲击变为长期经济衰退的风险。

在最近的一份投资者报告中,贝伦贝格的经济学家们写道:“在许多方面,美国的企业家精神、激烈竞争和充满活力的市场都值得体制相对僵化的欧洲学习。但就控制疫情期间的大规模失业问题,美国可以学习一些欧洲的经验。”

德国的“工作补贴”方案

欧洲方案的原型是德国为补贴工时损失而创立的“kurzarbeit”计划(短工津贴计划-译者注)。人们普遍认为是这一计划降低了2008-09年金融危机对德国的影响。贝伦贝格指出,作为欧洲最大的经济体,德国当时损失的就业岗位比美国要少得多,就业市场恢复到危机前水平所花的时间也比美国短了好几年。

包括法国、意大利、荷兰、西班牙、英国与丹麦在内,许多欧洲国家这次都采取了与德国模式相似的应对方案。

各国的具体方案有所不同。德国政府向受疫情影响的雇主提供的补贴高达工人净工资的67%。法国政府的补贴则达到了工人净工资的84%,如果员工领的是最低工资,那么这笔钱将完全由政府支付,而根据意大利推出的工资补贴(Cassa integrazione guaadagn)方案,政府将最多支付9周的员工工资,支付比例为80%。

这些所谓的“短期就业补贴方案”让企业能够留住熟练的技术工人,避免了经济回暖时企业因重新招聘、培训所需承担的费用和时间成本。但是这种全面放水的政策也有自己的缺点。

这是否是一项明智的投资?

批评人士认为,此类政策最大的问题在于有可能造成经济扭曲,把原本可以投入到更具活力产业的资源用于拯救经营不善的企业或者留住夕阳产业(如实体零售)的工作机会。

政府介入、补贴私营部门员工工资似乎与美国灵活的劳动力市场所奉行的自由市场精神相违背,后者往往在经济低迷时迅速裁员,而在经济繁荣时大幅增加就业。

但也有经济学家表示,美、欧在疫情期间为应对就业市场冲击所采取的措施的差距并没有表面上看起来那么大。

在接受《财富》杂志采访时,凯投宏观的高级美国经济学家安德鲁·亨特说:“我猜大家都认为美国在保就业方面做得太少了,过去几周这种前所未见的失业潮更是进一步加深了这一印象。相反,我觉得美国其实做了很多,只是在针对的目标上跟许多欧洲国家不太一样。”

美国方案

他表示,美国薪资保护计划为小微企业提供了3500亿美元的贷款,只要这些企业不裁员,该笔贷款将被豁免,这一计划与欧洲国家的补贴计划在本质上是非常相似的,只是企业申请的步骤稍微麻烦一些。

“美国方案的另一个关键点在于其大幅扩大了失业保险的覆盖范围。”安德鲁指出,2.2万亿美元的经济刺激方案(CARES Act)提供了(比欧洲方案)更为慷慨的失业福利,覆盖面也更广,兼职员工和零工经济的从业人员也能从中受益。

纽约大学斯特恩商学院的经济学教授尼古拉斯·埃科诺米蒂斯表示,在讨论劳动力市场相关政策时,规模是重要的考量因素。

美国经济刺激方案的规模相当于其GDP的10%,而且现在还在讨论要不要进一步扩大规模,“而欧元区刺激方案的规模仅为约5000亿欧元,还不到欧元区GDP的5%。我觉得这是完全不够的。”他在接受《财富》杂志采访时如是说。

埃科诺米蒂斯表示,在最理想的情况下,许多申请失业救济金的美国人未来将会回到原来的岗位上,或者能够找到新的工作。但是否真能如此则取决于他们失业时间的长短。

埃科诺米蒂斯说:“如果失业一、两个月或者两个半月,那么我认为绝大多数人都能回到自己原来的岗位上,但是如果失业三个月或更长时间,就不好说了。在我看来,就业市场要想回到疫情之前的水平可能还需要一段时间。”

成绩显著

凯投宏观指出,截至目前,欧洲短期就业补贴方案已取得显著成绩,在法国,相关方案已覆盖400万名工人,另据估计,约62万家西班牙企业(有近300万名工人)已经申请了西班牙的短期就业补贴。

但成功总要付出代价。如果经济低迷的状况再持续几个月,那么债务缠身的欧洲政府势必难以继续推行补助计划。也正因此,财政鹰派人士格外关注都有哪些机构申请了相关纾困计划。欧洲冠军利物浦便是在其纾困申请招致球迷猛烈抨击之后最终选择了退出。

上周一,英国政府的“带薪休假”计划正式生效,Volcano Coffee Works的洛伊塞尔可以缓口气了。哪怕该计划只是延迟几天,下个付薪周期的钱就得由企业来出。

她在政府确认启动日期前表示:“不是说我们不相信政府会提供援助,只是对于中小企业而言,现金流是很现实的问题,错过时机,企业规划管理自身以撑过疫情的难度将大为增加。”

对任何人来说,处理薪资问题都殊非易事,更何况面前摆放的是整个国家的工资单。(财富中文网)

译者:Feb

Like most British firms, Volcano Coffee Works watched, stunned, as business collapsed at the beginning of March, just as the country started social-distancing measures.

“We saw a 91% drop in our orders literally within a week,” recounts Emma Loisel, chair of the specialty coffee business. Volcano Coffee Works runs two coffee roasting sites and a café, and had, at the time of the outbreak, a fast-growing wholesale business supplying hotels, restaurants and cafes around the country. It has 31 people on payroll.

“I feel very responsible for those people,” Loisel tells Fortune. “We’re a real family-run business where everyone has worked really hard to build what we have. And to lose that, would be a real tragedy.”

Tragedy was averted.

That's because the government, as of today, will step in to pay most of Loisel’s wage bill. Under a U.K. government rescue plan, 80% of wages, or up to 2,500 pounds ($3,100) a month per employee, are covered for coronavirus-hit businesses in one of the most generous aid packages anywhere in the developed world.

The Brits call the measure a furlough plan. Unlike in the United States, the furloughed workers in Britain still get paid.

The hope is to keep unemployment from sky-rocketing, as is the case in the United States where a record 22 million Americans have filed for unemployment benefits in the past month, pushing the real unemployment rate in the U.S. to 17.9%, a level not seen since the Great Depression.

Without that lifeline, Loisel says, “we would have had to do mass redundancies”—lay-offs—“immediately.”

Guaranteeing payrolls

European job markets are also showing the strain of the coronavirus crisis that's confined hundreds of millions of people to their homes and brought large sectors of the economy grinding to a halt.

But some economists say that the leap in unemployment is likely to be less severe and less prolonged in much of Europe. There's one simple reason for that: most European governments are paying all or part of the wages of millions of private-sector workers who might otherwise have been laid off because of the slump.

The International Monetary Fund forecast last week that U.S. unemployment would rise from the 2019 rate of 3.7%—which was considerably lower than the euro zone—to 10.4% in 2020, on a par with the 19 countries using the euro currency. In 2021, it projects the U.S. will have a higher unemployment rate than the euro zone.

How bad the U.S. unemployment rate will get is still an open debate. An economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Miguel Faria-e-Castro calculated in a “back-of-the-envelope” estimate that 47 million Americans could be laid off, sending unemployment soaring to 32% in the second quarter.

Faria-e-Castro did not take into account the effects of the various government bailout measures to mitigate job losses, but when you see the steady flow of job-cuts headlines from the airlines, retailers like Macy's and hotel and casino operators, Marriott and MGM, it becomes hard to call a floor on the number of Americans soon to be out of a job.

In much of Europe, the aim has been to keep staff on payrolls as long as possible, even if ultimately governments—in essence, taxpayers—pick up the tab. Economists at Germany’s Berenberg bank say that by encouraging firms to hang on to their workers during the crisis, Europe is making it more likely that business can quickly get back to normal once the restrictions are lifted, and factories, offices, schools and restaurants re-open. The European approach also limits the risk of high unemployment turning a short-term shock into a longer slump, they say.

“In many ways, the U.S., with its entrepreneurial spirit and rough and tumble dynamic markets, is a role model for the less flexible parts of Europe. But on the specific problem of containing mass dismissals during a crisis, the U.S. could take a leaf out of Europe’s book,” Berenberg economists wrote in a recent investor note.

The German word for jobs subsidies

The prototype for the European schemes is Germany’s “kurzarbeit” subsidy for reduced working hours. This tool was credited with cushioning the impact of the 2008-09 financial crisis in Germany. Back then, Berenberg notes, Europe’s biggest economy lost proportionally far fewer jobs than the United States and employment recovered to pre-crisis levels in Germany several years before it did so in the United States.

This time around, many European countries have adopted similar schemes to the German model, including France, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, Britain and Denmark.

The details vary from country to country. In Germany, the government will pay employers affected by the crisis up to 67% of workers’ net salaries. In France, the state will pay 84% of net salary, with 100% for those on the minimum wage, while under Italy’s Cassa integrazione guadagni scheme, the state will pay 80% of wages for up to nine weeks.

Short-time working schemes, as they’re called, allow firms to hang on to skilled workers, avoiding the costs and delays of retraining new ones when business picks up. But the float-all-boats policy has its foes.

A good investment?

The biggest criticism is that it can create economic distortions by keeping inefficient firms on life support or by retaining workers in a declining sector, such as bricks-and-mortar retail, when resources might better be shifted to more dynamic industries.

Having government step in to pick up the pay checks of private-sector workers seems to conflict with U.S. free market ethos of flexible labor markets, which tend to shed jobs quickly in a downturn and strongly increase them in a boom.

But other economists say that the differences between the U.S. and European approaches to labor shocks during coronavirus are not as great as they seem.

“I guess the general narrative is that the U.S. is doing a lot less in terms of trying to keep people in jobs and that’s been reinforced by the unprecedented wave of jobless claims we’ve had over the past few weeks. I think in reality though, the general picture is the U.S. is still doing quite a lot. It’s just that it is targeted in a different way to a lot of these European countries,” Andrew Hunter, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics, told Fortune.

The U.S. approach

The U.S. Paycheck Protection Program, which provides $350 billion of small business loans, forgivable if firms keep workers on the payroll, is “essentially pretty similar” to the European schemes although the steps firms had to go through were slightly more complicated, he said.

“The other key aspect of the U.S. response is the big expansion of unemployment insurance,” he said, noting that the $2.2 trillion CARES Act offers more generous unemployment benefits, and to more portions of the labor market—including part-time and gig economy workers.

Nicholas Economides, economics professor at New York University’s Stern School of Business, said when it comes to policies directed at the labor market, size matters.

In the U.S., the stimulus package was about 10% of GDP and there was a discussion about increasing it “while in the euro zone they’ve talked about 500 billion euros which is less than 5% of the GDP of the euro zone. I think that would be totally inadequate,” he told Fortune.

In the best-case scenario, many Americans claiming unemployment benefits would go back to their former jobs, or find new ones, when the lockdown ends. But that depends on how long they are unemployed, says Economides.

“If we are talking about a month, two months or two-and-a-half months, I think it is very likely that the vast majority are going to go back to their work … but if we are talking about three months or longer, we don’t know,” he said. “I think it will take time for employment to come back to previous levels.”

Strong take-up

So far, take-up of the European short-time working schemes has been strong, Capital Economics said, noting that 4 million workers were covered by the scheme in France, while an estimated 620,000 companies covering almost 3 million workers have already applied for the Spanish scheme.

But its success comes at a cost. Highly indebted European governments will have difficulty extending the programs should the downturn last several months. For that reason, fiscal hawks are paying close attention to who applies. Liverpool F.C., the European champions, backed out of the program after the move drew strong criticism from fans.

The U.K. government's furlough payment went live on Monday, a relief for Loisel, of Volcano Coffee Works. A delay of even a few days would have meant the company covering another payroll cycle.

“It’s not that we don’t think it’s coming," she said last week before the government confirmed the start date. "It’s just the reality of timing of cashflow that this is making it much harder for small and medium businesses to plan, and to manage their way through this.”

For anyone who’s had to deal with payroll, the task can be daunting. Try doing it for an entire country.

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