原油是一种宝贵资源,各国甚至会为了争夺石油资源而发动战争。上周,原油价格史上首次跌入负值。
上周一,西得克萨斯中质油期货合约价格跌至历史最低的每桶负39美元。虽然到上周四中午,期货合约的价格反弹至每桶约18美元,但依旧远远低于2月每桶约50美元的水平。
导致价格波动的原因,归根结底还是供需问题。由于通勤者和乘坐飞机的人数大幅减少,因此我们对石油和天然气的需求也随之下降。
关于此次史无前例的油价暴跌,本文一一解答了人们最关注的几个问题。
油价为什么会跌入负值区间?
由于全球经济对原油的需求减少,因此储油空间被耗尽。购买WTI期货合约的交易商,在合约到期时实际上没有能力或方法接收原油。WTI是西得克萨斯中质油的缩写,一直被作为全球基准原油。普通人也能购买这类期货合约,而且除非到了不得不交割原油的地步,否则没有人想卖掉这些合约。但由于储油空间有限,随着5月期货合约的交割日期临近,交易商在上周一开始亏本出售合约,因为他们根本找不到买家,也没有地方可以存放原油。
GasBuddy公司的石油分析主管帕特里克·德·哈恩说:“我们会看到期货合约交易商减少,实物交易商增多。许多期货交易商损失惨重。”
公司的储油空间为什么会告竭?
原油储油空间有限。建设储油空间需要耗费许多年,并且必须遵守政府的严格规定。而且新冠疫情让全世界措手不及,没有人预料到全球经济会突然停摆。
如果没有更多储油空间会发生什么?
德·哈恩表示:“如果原油无人问津,各国会停止生产。一旦储油空间耗竭,我认为[除了停产]别无选择。”
从长远来看,供需会自动恢复平衡,但在此之前,西得克萨斯中质油可能再次临时跌为负值。
加油站的油价是否会破零?
不会,加油站不会付钱让你去加油。但油价肯定会继续下跌。事实上,Gasbuddy在上周二告诉《财富》杂志,密歇根州有六个加油站的无铅汽油价格为每加仑0.88美元。
美国汽车协会(AAA)的发言人德文·格拉登说:“我们预计油价会继续下跌。”即便原油再次跌入负值,运输费用和加油站利润等其他成本,也会使加油站的油价维持在0美元以上。但当前1.79美元的全美汽油价格可能很快跌至1.5美元以下。(财富中文网)
译者:Biz
原油是一种宝贵资源,各国甚至会为了争夺石油资源而发动战争。上周,原油价格史上首次跌入负值。
上周一,西得克萨斯中质油期货合约价格跌至历史最低的每桶负39美元。虽然到上周四中午,期货合约的价格反弹至每桶约18美元,但依旧远远低于2月每桶约50美元的水平。
导致价格波动的原因,归根结底还是供需问题。由于通勤者和乘坐飞机的人数大幅减少,因此我们对石油和天然气的需求也随之下降。
关于此次史无前例的油价暴跌,本文一一解答了人们最关注的几个问题。
油价为什么会跌入负值区间?
由于全球经济对原油的需求减少,因此储油空间被耗尽。购买WTI期货合约的交易商,在合约到期时实际上没有能力或方法接收原油。WTI是西得克萨斯中质油的缩写,一直被作为全球基准原油。普通人也能购买这类期货合约,而且除非到了不得不交割原油的地步,否则没有人想卖掉这些合约。但由于储油空间有限,随着5月期货合约的交割日期临近,交易商在上周一开始亏本出售合约,因为他们根本找不到买家,也没有地方可以存放原油。
GasBuddy公司的石油分析主管帕特里克·德·哈恩说:“我们会看到期货合约交易商减少,实物交易商增多。许多期货交易商损失惨重。”
公司的储油空间为什么会告竭?
原油储油空间有限。建设储油空间需要耗费许多年,并且必须遵守政府的严格规定。而且新冠疫情让全世界措手不及,没有人预料到全球经济会突然停摆。
如果没有更多储油空间会发生什么?
德·哈恩表示:“如果原油无人问津,各国会停止生产。一旦储油空间耗竭,我认为[除了停产]别无选择。”
从长远来看,供需会自动恢复平衡,但在此之前,西得克萨斯中质油可能再次临时跌为负值。
加油站的油价是否会破零?
不会,加油站不会付钱让你去加油。但油价肯定会继续下跌。事实上,Gasbuddy在上周二告诉《财富》杂志,密歇根州有六个加油站的无铅汽油价格为每加仑0.88美元。
美国汽车协会(AAA)的发言人德文·格拉登说:“我们预计油价会继续下跌。”即便原油再次跌入负值,运输费用和加油站利润等其他成本,也会使加油站的油价维持在0美元以上。但当前1.79美元的全美汽油价格可能很快跌至1.5美元以下。(财富中文网)
译者:Biz
Last week the price of crude—a resource so valued that nations have waged wars over it—went under $0 for the first time in history.
On last Monday, the WTI contract was sitting at a record low of minus $39/barrel. It has since rebounded to around $18/barrel as of noon last Thursday, but that is still far below its February levels of around $50/barrel.
It all comes down to supply and demand. And without as many people commuting to work or flying, we just don't need as much oil and gas.
Here are a few answers to the most common questions about this unprecedented plunged in oil prices.
How can oil prices go negative?
As the global economy demands less crude, the places to store it are filling up. Traders buy WTI—which stands for "West Texas Intermediate" and is a grade of crude oil used as a global benchmark—futures contracts all the time without actually having the capacity or means to take ownership of crude when it comes due. Even average joes can buy these contracts—you'd just want to sell before you're obligated to take delivery of the crude. But with limited oil storing capacity and the delivery dates nearing on the May contracts, these traders started sell at a loss on last Monday since they couldn't find buyers or physically store the oil.
"We're going to see less paper traders and more physical traders. A lot of paper traders got burnt," says Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy.
What's the deal with companies running out of room to store oil?
There is only so much space to store crude. It takes years to build up capacity and requires meeting strenuous government regulations. And the world wasn't prepared for a scenario like a pandemic where hard brakes are applied to the global economy.
What will happen when there is no more storage at all?
"Countries will stop producing if no one will take it. And once there is no where to store it, I don't see any other option [than them halting production]," De Haan says.
In the long-term the balance between supply and demand will work itself out, however, WTI could temporarily go negative again before that point.
Will prices go down to zero at the pump?
No, gas stations aren't going to pay you to take their gasoline. However, prices will continue to fall. In fact, Gasbuddy told Fortune on last Tuesday there were six gas stations in Michigan where unleaded gas was going for $0.88 cents per gallon.
"We’re expecting to see prices to continue to decline," says Devin Gladden, a spokesperson for AAA. Even if crude goes negative again, there are other cost including transportation and gas station margins that would keep prices above $0 at the pump. But the current national gasoline price of $1.79 could soon fall under $1.50.