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“整个上午都没人来”:德国汽车经销商复工,但门可罗雀

David Meyer
2020-04-29

随着疫情导致的经济副作用日益明显,而且感染人数的发展轨迹依旧存在不确定性,因此欧洲的消费者信心持续低迷。

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如果你开放汽车展厅,结果没有人来怎么办?

这正是德国许多汽车经销商所面临的两难境地。根据德国各州政府的规定,汽车经销商获准在最近几周陆续恢复营业。

德国这个“汽车王国”为防控疫情从一个多月前开始执行封城措施,迫使该国汽车经销商暂停销售。如今,大部分汽车展厅都已经恢复开放。一些小型店铺和花店、DIY商店等个别零售行业也已经恢复营业。但这些展厅里门可罗雀。

上周三下午,位于法德边境城市萨尔布吕肯的La Linea汽车展厅的经理乔基姆·尼尔斯曼说道:“从周一至今,我们的展厅可能只来了10位顾客。”在生意好的时候,每天正常的客流量就有20至25人。

Damax Automobile Berlin的老板拉乌尔·博卡拉穆在上周三说道:“今天上午没有人光顾。”Damax Automobile Berlin位于柏林威尔默斯多夫区。柏林政府当天仅允许部分店铺首批恢复营业。“大家都在隔离。估计今年不会有太多业务。”

汽车经销商的遭遇凸显出企业即使获准复工之后可能面临的诸多问题之一——随着疫情导致的经济副作用日益明显,而且新冠病毒感染人数的发展轨迹依旧存在不确定性,因此欧洲的消费者信心持续低迷。

德国经济的发动机

德国汽车行业的规模高达4,350亿欧元,但一方面它并没有摆脱柴油车排放造假丑闻的影响,同时还要面对日益严格的排放标准。对这个行业而言,形势变得异常严峻。

尼尔斯曼说:“在疫情爆发之前,客户拿不准主意该买什么车:混合动力车还是电动汽车,或者柴油车。我想未来情况会好转,但本周,他们并不想在汽车或者在病毒问题上犯任何错误。”

德国独立汽车经销商协会(Association of Independent Auto Dealers ,BVfK)似乎更加乐观。该协会坚持认为有更多顾客来看车,但它也承认客流量数据较疫情危机爆发之前有所下降。该行业组织的主席安斯加尔·克莱茵说:“形势非常艰难,但我们保持乐观。”

毫无疑问,疫情危机确实对德国汽车行业和国内经济产生了严重影响。IHS Markit上周四发布的经济活动统计数据显示,德国的经济活动水平跌至历史最低,比分析师担心的情况更加糟糕。4月初,德国汽车牌照发放机构表示,3月的汽车销量年比下降了38%。今年3月,汽车行业资深人士、瑞士圣加仑大学的费迪南德·杜登霍夫告诉《财富》杂志,西欧乘用车市场需要近十年时间才能恢复到危机之前的水平。

德国大部分工厂由于执行了严格的卫生和组织措施,因此没有停工。但德国汽车工厂大部分在3月中旬停工,现在才开始复工。例如,戴姆勒(Daimler)位于汉堡、柏林和斯图加特的动力系统工厂以及德累斯顿附近的卡门茨电池工厂,都在上周复工。

“不要冒险”

德国实行联邦制,因此各地取消隔离限制的进度并不一致。德国总理安格拉·默克尔在上周四警告称,一些州为了尽快恢复经济,可能会操之过急。德国政府在两周前表示将谨慎放宽疫情防控限制措施。默克尔说:“不要拿我们已经取得的成果冒险,以免疫情出现反扑。疫情还没有到最后阶段,而是才刚刚开始。”

德国独立汽车经销商协会主席克莱茵也批评了各州各行其是,零星允许汽车展厅重新开放的做法;例如,萨尔兰州在上周一宣布复工,柏林在上周三解除了封禁令,巴伐利亚将在这周一宣布复工。克莱茵说:“很可惜,这些行动没有统一的组织。问题出在[德国的]联邦制。由[联邦]政府统一做出指示或许效果更好。”

“第二阶段”

除了德国以外,如何执行经济复工复产这个问题,在其他国家也引起了巨大争议。

西班牙施行了欧洲最严格的封禁令。西班牙首相佩德罗·桑切斯警告,将“逐步缓慢”复工,并且一旦发现新一轮疫情爆发的迹象,可能会取消解封。

西班牙的新冠疫情非常严重,共有死亡病例超过22,000例,排在全球第三位。西班牙允许包括工厂和建筑工地在内的部分“非必要”企业在复活节后复工。从上周日开始,14岁以下儿童六周来首次被允许走出家门,在一名成年人的陪同下散步不超过一个小时。(没错,规定的时间非常精确。)

上周三,西班牙将“紧急状态”延长至5月9日。“紧急状态”授权政府执行封锁令。

与此同时,意大利总理朱塞佩·孔蒂上周早些时候通过Facebook提醒国民,意大利即将取消封锁令。意大利的封锁令在欧洲持续时间最长。他在上周一表示:“我们的合理预测是从5月4日开始解封。”

到目前为止,意大利并没有披露有关所谓的“第二阶段”的详细信息。

在复活节之后,政府向园艺商店、童装零售店和书店开了绿灯。在罗马最大的大学之一罗马第三大学的街道上,书店于上周重新开始营业,但很少有顾客光临。由于学校无限期停课,学生只能待在家里;经过书店的人屈指可数,而且人们都戴着口罩,没有心情浏览书店的新书。

丹麦在欧洲国家中率先解封。丹麦政府在4月14日宣布学校复课,结果引发了混乱。家长们组织起来抗议政府的决定,甚至建了一个Facebook群组,名字叫“我的孩子不要当实验对象。”

不止丹麦人主张缓慢恢复正常生活。

德国商业游说机构呼吁在决定经济复工复产时应该极其谨慎,以免导致疫情第二轮爆发。德国工业联合会主席迪特·肯普夫表示:“再来一次封城,将对德国产生无法预测的后果。”

本文包括来自马德里的伊恩·蒙特和来自罗马的伯恩哈德·华纳的补充报道。(财富中文网)

译者:Biz

如果你开放汽车展厅,结果没有人来怎么办?

这正是德国许多汽车经销商所面临的两难境地。根据德国各州政府的规定,汽车经销商获准在最近几周陆续恢复营业。

德国这个“汽车王国”为防控疫情从一个多月前开始执行封城措施,迫使该国汽车经销商暂停销售。如今,大部分汽车展厅都已经恢复开放。一些小型店铺和花店、DIY商店等个别零售行业也已经恢复营业。但这些展厅里门可罗雀。

上周三下午,位于法德边境城市萨尔布吕肯的La Linea汽车展厅的经理乔基姆·尼尔斯曼说道:“从周一至今,我们的展厅可能只来了10位顾客。”在生意好的时候,每天正常的客流量就有20至25人。

Damax Automobile Berlin的老板拉乌尔·博卡拉穆在上周三说道:“今天上午没有人光顾。”Damax Automobile Berlin位于柏林威尔默斯多夫区。柏林政府当天仅允许部分店铺首批恢复营业。“大家都在隔离。估计今年不会有太多业务。”

汽车经销商的遭遇凸显出企业即使获准复工之后可能面临的诸多问题之一——随着疫情导致的经济副作用日益明显,而且新冠病毒感染人数的发展轨迹依旧存在不确定性,因此欧洲的消费者信心持续低迷。

德国经济的发动机

德国汽车行业的规模高达4,350亿欧元,但一方面它并没有摆脱柴油车排放造假丑闻的影响,同时还要面对日益严格的排放标准。对这个行业而言,形势变得异常严峻。

尼尔斯曼说:“在疫情爆发之前,客户拿不准主意该买什么车:混合动力车还是电动汽车,或者柴油车。我想未来情况会好转,但本周,他们并不想在汽车或者在病毒问题上犯任何错误。”

德国独立汽车经销商协会(Association of Independent Auto Dealers ,BVfK)似乎更加乐观。该协会坚持认为有更多顾客来看车,但它也承认客流量数据较疫情危机爆发之前有所下降。该行业组织的主席安斯加尔·克莱茵说:“形势非常艰难,但我们保持乐观。”

毫无疑问,疫情危机确实对德国汽车行业和国内经济产生了严重影响。IHS Markit上周四发布的经济活动统计数据显示,德国的经济活动水平跌至历史最低,比分析师担心的情况更加糟糕。4月初,德国汽车牌照发放机构表示,3月的汽车销量年比下降了38%。今年3月,汽车行业资深人士、瑞士圣加仑大学的费迪南德·杜登霍夫告诉《财富》杂志,西欧乘用车市场需要近十年时间才能恢复到危机之前的水平。

德国大部分工厂由于执行了严格的卫生和组织措施,因此没有停工。但德国汽车工厂大部分在3月中旬停工,现在才开始复工。例如,戴姆勒(Daimler)位于汉堡、柏林和斯图加特的动力系统工厂以及德累斯顿附近的卡门茨电池工厂,都在上周复工。

“不要冒险”

德国实行联邦制,因此各地取消隔离限制的进度并不一致。德国总理安格拉·默克尔在上周四警告称,一些州为了尽快恢复经济,可能会操之过急。德国政府在两周前表示将谨慎放宽疫情防控限制措施。默克尔说:“不要拿我们已经取得的成果冒险,以免疫情出现反扑。疫情还没有到最后阶段,而是才刚刚开始。”

德国独立汽车经销商协会主席克莱茵也批评了各州各行其是,零星允许汽车展厅重新开放的做法;例如,萨尔兰州在上周一宣布复工,柏林在上周三解除了封禁令,巴伐利亚将在这周一宣布复工。克莱茵说:“很可惜,这些行动没有统一的组织。问题出在[德国的]联邦制。由[联邦]政府统一做出指示或许效果更好。”

“第二阶段”

除了德国以外,如何执行经济复工复产这个问题,在其他国家也引起了巨大争议。

西班牙施行了欧洲最严格的封禁令。西班牙首相佩德罗·桑切斯警告,将“逐步缓慢”复工,并且一旦发现新一轮疫情爆发的迹象,可能会取消解封。

西班牙的新冠疫情非常严重,共有死亡病例超过22,000例,排在全球第三位。西班牙允许包括工厂和建筑工地在内的部分“非必要”企业在复活节后复工。从上周日开始,14岁以下儿童六周来首次被允许走出家门,在一名成年人的陪同下散步不超过一个小时。(没错,规定的时间非常精确。)

上周三,西班牙将“紧急状态”延长至5月9日。“紧急状态”授权政府执行封锁令。

与此同时,意大利总理朱塞佩·孔蒂上周早些时候通过Facebook提醒国民,意大利即将取消封锁令。意大利的封锁令在欧洲持续时间最长。他在上周一表示:“我们的合理预测是从5月4日开始解封。”

到目前为止,意大利并没有披露有关所谓的“第二阶段”的详细信息。

在复活节之后,政府向园艺商店、童装零售店和书店开了绿灯。在罗马最大的大学之一罗马第三大学的街道上,书店于上周重新开始营业,但很少有顾客光临。由于学校无限期停课,学生只能待在家里;经过书店的人屈指可数,而且人们都戴着口罩,没有心情浏览书店的新书。

丹麦在欧洲国家中率先解封。丹麦政府在4月14日宣布学校复课,结果引发了混乱。家长们组织起来抗议政府的决定,甚至建了一个Facebook群组,名字叫“我的孩子不要当实验对象。”

不止丹麦人主张缓慢恢复正常生活。

德国商业游说机构呼吁在决定经济复工复产时应该极其谨慎,以免导致疫情第二轮爆发。德国工业联合会主席迪特·肯普夫表示:“再来一次封城,将对德国产生无法预测的后果。”

本文包括来自马德里的伊恩·蒙特和来自罗马的伯恩哈德·华纳的补充报道。(财富中文网)

译者:Biz

What if you opened a car showroom and nobody came?

That’s the dilemma facing many car dealers across Germany, who were given the all-clear to reopen last week or next—the timing depends on the authorities in specific states.

More than a month after the coronavirus lockdown forced them to suspend sales, auto showrooms—like small shops and certain retail sectors such as florists and DIY stores—are largely open to the public again. But customers are few and far between.

“Since Monday, I think we have had 10 customers in the showroom,” says Joachim Niersmann, manager of La Linea showroom in Saarbrücken, near the German border with France, on last Wednesday afternoon. In better times, the normal footfall would have been on the order of 20 to 25 customers a day.

“Nobody has come by this morning,” says Rasoul Behkalam, owner of Damax Automobile Berlin in the capital’s Wilmersdorf district, also on last Wednesday—the Berlin authorities only allowed limited store reopenings for the first time on that day. “People are distancing. We don’t expect much business this year.”

The dealers’ experience highlights one of the many problems facing businesses even once they are allowed to reopen—customer confidence around Europe remains desperately low as the scale of the economic fallout becomes ever more apparent, and as uncertainty remains over the trajectory of coronavirus infections.

The engine of the German economy

In the case of the 435 billion euro German auto industry, still reeling from the diesel scandal and ever-tightening emissions standards, the problem is particularly acute.

“As before the virus, customers don’t know what they have to buy: hybrids or electric vehicles or diesel,” says Niersmann. “I think it will be better in coming times, but this week they don’t want to make a mistake with the car, or with the virus.”

Germany’s Association of Independent Auto Dealers (BVfK) sounds more upbeat about the situation, insisting that ever more customers are visiting showrooms—but conceding that numbers are down since before the crisis struck. “It’s very difficult, but we are optimistic,” says Ansgar Klein, the trade group’s chairman.

There’s no mistaking how bad the crisis has been for Germany’s auto sector, and indeed for the wider economy—IHS Markit’s economic-activity statistics, released last Thursday, showed a record low that far outstripped analysts’ fears. At the start of April, Germany’s vehicle licensing authority said March car sales were down 38% year on year. In March, industry veteran Ferdinand Dudenhöffer of the University of St. Gallen in Switzerland told Fortune that the Western European market for passenger cars would take around a decade to return to pre-crisis levels.

Unlike most factories in Germany, which have kept running thanks to the imposition of strict hygiene and organizational measures, the country’s car factories largely shuttered in mid-March and are only now starting to fire up again. Daimler, for example, last week reopened powertrain plants in Hamburg, Berlin, and Stuttgart, and its Kamenz battery factory near Dresden.

‘Let’s not gamble’

Germany’s federated nature has led to some inconsistency in the lifting of restrictions. Chancellor Angela Merkel, whose administration signaled the cautious relaxation of coronavirus restrictions a couple of weeks back, warned last Thursday that some states could be moving too quickly as they try to get their economies humming again. “Let’s not gamble what we’ve achieved and risk a setback,” she said. “We are not in the final phase of this pandemic; we’re just at the beginning.”

BVfK chairman Klein is also critical of the way state authorities have handled auto showroom reopenings in piecemeal fashion; for example, the state of Saarland gave the all-clear for last Monday, Berlin for Wednesday, and Bavaria for Monday next week. “Unfortunately this is very inconsistently organized,” he says. “The problem lies in [Germany’s] federal structure. It would be better if the [federal] government could prescribe these things uniformly.”

Spain, Italy, and Denmark enter ‘Phase 2’

How to reopen the economy has become a big debate beyond Germany.

In Spain, which has imposed one of the tightest lockdowns in Europe, Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has warned the reopening will be “slow and gradual,” and if there are signs of new outbreaks, the “de-escalation” may be reversed.

The hard-hit country, which has the third highest confirmed COVID-19 death toll in the world at over 22,000, allowed some “nonessential” businesses—including factories and construction sites—to reopen after Easter. And, began on last Sunday, children up to 14 years of age will be allowed to leave their homes for the first time in six weeks, to take walks of up to an hour with an adult. (Yes, the rules are that precise.)

On last Wednesday, Spain extended its “state of alert”—which gives the government the power to impose the lockdown—until May 9.

Meanwhile, Italy’s Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte took to Facebook earlier last week to alert Italians that the lifting of Europe’s longest ongoing lockdown is imminent. “A reasonable expectation is that we will apply it from May 4,” he said on last Monday.

So far, details have been scant on what “Phase 2,” as it’s being called in Italy, would look like.

After Easter, the government gave the green light to garden shops, children’s clothing retailers, and bookstores. Across the street from L’Università degli Studi Roma Tre, one of Rome’s biggest universities, bookshops opened their doors last week to few customers. With classes suspended indefinitely, however, students are staying home; the few people walking past the bookshops were all donning masks and were in no mood to browse for new titles.

One European country that’s ahead of most of its neighbors is Denmark, where the government reopened schools on April 14, a move that caused a bit of a stir. Groups of parents protested the move, even forming a Facebook group called “My kid is not going to be a guinea pig.”

The Danes aren’t the only ones advocating a go-slow return to normal life.

Germany’s business lobby is calling for the reactivation of the country’s economy to take place with extreme caution, lest it trigger a second wave of COVID-19. “A new shutdown would have unforeseeable consequences for the country,” said Dieter Kempf, president of the Federal Association of German Industry, last week.

Additional reporting from Ian Mount in Madrid and Bernhard Warner in Rome.

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