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除了恐慌,历史三大熊市还带给我们什么?

Erik Sherman
2020-04-30

我们找到几位华尔街资深人士,请教他们的看法。这些人都经历过此前的三次大熊市。

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虽然中国目前复工复产,经济似乎已走出停摆状态,但世界最大经济体美国开始衰退,欧洲、加拿大、日本、韩国等重要经济体也很可能紧跟其后。全球性的经济衰退似乎已不可避免,世界第二大经济体中国也难以独善其身。金融全球化,牵一发而动全身,最近的因国际原油价格波动而引发的中行“原油宝”就是一个例子。作为投资者而言,应该在出现熊市的时候密切关注市场环境,恐慌只会带来更大的问题。从历史角度看,熊市终会有结束的那一天。

“这次不一样。”

“这就是每一次熊市带给投资者的感觉:每一次都是感到害怕和恐慌,但每一次都觉得,这次不一样。”Haverford Trust 投资公司的联席投资总监汉克·史密斯说。

熊市中连续巨亏让投资者受到惊吓,落荒而逃。就在行情似乎开始好转时,股市再次下行。

这正是今年3月初的情况。2020年3月12日,道指创下自1987年来创纪录的最大单日跌幅,跌入熊市,标普500 指数也一并暴跌。尽管后来股市又涨了几天,其中一天还创下1933年来最大的单日涨幅,但很多投资者依旧惴惴不安。

身陷熊市让人恼火,特别对于那些从未经历过熊市的人。投资者,包括那些把养老金投资到股市里的普通人,只有在股市走熊一段时间后才明白,熊市真的来了,但他们也看不到熊市到底什么时候会结束。

我们找到几位华尔街资深人士,请教他们的看法。这些人都经历过此前的三次大熊市:1987年美股暴跌、千禧年互联网泡沫破灭和2008年的金融崩溃。

1987年熊市

现在说到1987年的黑色星期一,人们通常会想到,这次史上最大的一次股市单日跌幅。那天是10月19日,标普500指数下跌了20.5%。相比当前2500点的估值,那时标普500估值要小得多,所以其实容易一点,而且,这次熊市持续时间相对短暂,三个月后就回涨了。

这一天对于CoreCap投资公司的法律顾问和首席合规官朱迪思·维拉里尔来说,她首先想到的是另外的事情。当时,她在一家机构从事合规业务,负责芝加哥的几乎所有股指期货交易员的合规审查。

1987年10月,纽约证券交易所大厅的交易员。图片来源:JIM WILSON—NEW YORK TIMES CO./GETTY IMAGES

那是疯狂的一天。公司通常为在当时外来期货市场上交易的专业人士提供金融担保,当天行情汹涌澎湃,一位老板在第二天甚至被迫给开出一张600万美元的支票,确保所有交易能顺利进行。那时负责下单的员工全是男士,管理层给他们每人配发了剃须刀和一个空咖啡罐子(省得他们去上厕所),要他们待在岗位上。

维拉里尔坐在茶水间对面的一间小办公室里,她回忆说:“每次有人从我身边走过,都有人说:‘又跌了一百点了。’”

一些人知道,此前的好时光不可能持续,但是市场如此大乱还是超出了他们的认知。“基本面是不支持这样的股价的,但市场做出这样的自我调整,所有人还是震惊不已。”维拉里尔说:

针对目前疫情导致的危机,她说,效应是累积出来。“你先是担心自己的社保基金保不住了,接着眼看着养老金账户比昨天少了22%,然后,卫生纸也全卖完了。”她说,此次危机带来的累积效益对消费者的影响超出了1987年的崩盘,导致了更大范围的恐慌。

不过,经历过1987年危机的维拉里尔也有所建议,“我那时还很年轻,上一辈的专业人士说的是,市场大幅调整时,你应该把它看成像百货商店降价甩卖那样。投资者有机会以便宜的价格买入,这最终又会让市场反转。”

互联网熊市

你很难向没有经历过互联网狂热的人解释清楚那段日子。那时候,科技公司和它们的投资人坚信,商业已经发生前所未有的变化。无须考虑利润,只要能抓眼球,其他事以后再说。

互联网泡沫时期,到处都在疯狂撒钱。

注册投资顾问史蒂芬·亚金当时为数家大型经纪公司工作。他和妻子都爱好帆船运动,他们在圣托马斯度假时,在码头看到了一艘漂亮的风帆游艇,船尾写着名字:Dot Calm(与网站的英文词“dotcom”谐音)。

“在圣托马斯的那艘船,是我看到的第一个警示。”亚金说。游艇的主人适时套现了,但大多数人可没有这么幸运。

“真难以想象,互联网泡沫持续了那么长时间。”亚金说,“上世纪90年代,股市形势大好,所有人都认为,它会一直涨下去。”

终于有一天涨不动了。

亚金不仅知道加杠杆和过度扩张的威力,也知道这么做的危险。“(美联储前主席)格林斯潘认为,自保意识会让银行和对冲基金好好自我控制,因为没有人想死。”这种理性的自私能确保市场出现调整时不至于失控。

“但是太多的投资者以为,总会有人来保护他们。”亚金解释说,“所以他们当中很多人过度使用了杠杆。投资者最好明白,不要指望有人救你,一定要有危险意识。”

经济大衰退熊市

08年经济大衰退造成史上最大的一次金融崩溃,其影响至今难以彻底消除。那次熊市过后,人们迎来了史上最长的一次牛市,其终结于2020年3月9日。

“08年1月就出现过一个卖股高潮,我投资的市场本来跌个10%或20%就可以见底了,”Smead 资产管理公司的首席执行官比尔·斯米德说,但当时这样有特殊性,“当时有两个利好因素:石油和中国经济。因为中国崛起,投资者极度看涨石油,认为中国会成为世界最大和最成功的经济体,二十年前,这个经济体还不存在。”

2008年6月27日,投资者挤在纽约证券交易所的交易大厅。图片来源:RICHARD DREW—AP IMAGES

过了一段时间,投资者才意识到,金融领域有一些生僻的地方,潜伏着巨大的风险。斯米德说:“人们发现,自己犯了这么多错误,根本没法知晓金融系统内部到底发生了什么,这一想法带来了巨大恐惧,最终引发股市崩盘。”

有一本书帮助了斯米德:阿米蒂·施莱斯的《被遗忘的人:大萧条新史》。“我当时觉得,我得回过头看历史,理解大萧条时期发生了什么,这样才能帮到客户。”斯米德说,这本书让他得以拉开与当下的距离,获得了亟需的视角。

例如,他发现,尽管GDP的78%都来自消费者支出,但真正自由支配的部分仅为20%,“电费是消费者支出,买房是消费者支出,这是雷打不动的。”也就是说,GDP跌再多,也会有个相对的垫底部分。

类似的,失业会出现在某些领域,不一定遍及所有行业。在2008年经济危机中,首当其冲的是楼市相关产业,如房地产中介、产权公司、房屋检查业等。“高峰时,这个行业占到美国成人就业的4%。”斯米德说。而1929年经济危机时,45%的就业人口受雇于农业,没有存款保险的银行的倒闭摧毁了储蓄和流动性,迫使大量农民破产。斯米德意识到,一定要着眼于当前,而非历史上经济危机时的市场环境。

这一次,市场因为新冠疫情而遭受重创,何时反弹也看不清楚。沙特和俄罗斯持续打压油价,导致一些企业破产,比如一些杠杆过高的美国能源公司。这一次,还是没有人预见到引发股市暴跌的导火索。

现在能做的,只有死等,记得还有买入机会,别把摊子铺得太大,时刻关注当下的市场环境,还有,不要忘了,即便是最严重的熊市,也终有反转的那一天。(财富中文网)

译者:MS

责编:雨晨

虽然中国目前复工复产,经济似乎已走出停摆状态,但世界最大经济体美国开始衰退,欧洲、加拿大、日本、韩国等重要经济体也很可能紧跟其后。全球性的经济衰退似乎已不可避免,世界第二大经济体中国也难以独善其身。金融全球化,牵一发而动全身,最近的因国际原油价格波动而引发的中行“原油宝”就是一个例子。作为投资者而言,应该在出现熊市的时候密切关注市场环境,恐慌只会带来更大的问题。从历史角度看,熊市终会有结束的那一天。

“这次不一样。”

“这就是每一次熊市带给投资者的感觉:每一次都是感到害怕和恐慌,但每一次都觉得,这次不一样。”Haverford Trust 投资公司的联席投资总监汉克·史密斯说。

熊市中连续巨亏让投资者受到惊吓,落荒而逃。就在行情似乎开始好转时,股市再次下行。

这正是今年3月初的情况。2020年3月12日,道指创下自1987年来创纪录的最大单日跌幅,跌入熊市,标普500 指数也一并暴跌。尽管后来股市又涨了几天,其中一天还创下1933年来最大的单日涨幅,但很多投资者依旧惴惴不安。

身陷熊市让人恼火,特别对于那些从未经历过熊市的人。投资者,包括那些把养老金投资到股市里的普通人,只有在股市走熊一段时间后才明白,熊市真的来了,但他们也看不到熊市到底什么时候会结束。

我们找到几位华尔街资深人士,请教他们的看法。这些人都经历过此前的三次大熊市:1987年美股暴跌、千禧年互联网泡沫破灭和2008年的金融崩溃。

1987年熊市

现在说到1987年的黑色星期一,人们通常会想到,这次史上最大的一次股市单日跌幅。那天是10月19日,标普500指数下跌了20.5%。相比当前2500点的估值,那时标普500估值要小得多,所以其实容易一点,而且,这次熊市持续时间相对短暂,三个月后就回涨了。

这一天对于CoreCap投资公司的法律顾问和首席合规官朱迪思·维拉里尔来说,她首先想到的是另外的事情。当时,她在一家机构从事合规业务,负责芝加哥的几乎所有股指期货交易员的合规审查。

那是疯狂的一天。公司通常为在当时外来期货市场上交易的专业人士提供金融担保,当天行情汹涌澎湃,一位老板在第二天甚至被迫给开出一张600万美元的支票,确保所有交易能顺利进行。那时负责下单的员工全是男士,管理层给他们每人配发了剃须刀和一个空咖啡罐子(省得他们去上厕所),要他们待在岗位上。

维拉里尔坐在茶水间对面的一间小办公室里,她回忆说:“每次有人从我身边走过,都有人说:‘又跌了一百点了。’”

一些人知道,此前的好时光不可能持续,但是市场如此大乱还是超出了他们的认知。“基本面是不支持这样的股价的,但市场做出这样的自我调整,所有人还是震惊不已。”维拉里尔说:

针对目前疫情导致的危机,她说,效应是累积出来。“你先是担心自己的社保基金保不住了,接着眼看着养老金账户比昨天少了22%,然后,卫生纸也全卖完了。”她说,此次危机带来的累积效益对消费者的影响超出了1987年的崩盘,导致了更大范围的恐慌。

不过,经历过1987年危机的维拉里尔也有所建议,“我那时还很年轻,上一辈的专业人士说的是,市场大幅调整时,你应该把它看成像百货商店降价甩卖那样。投资者有机会以便宜的价格买入,这最终又会让市场反转。”

互联网熊市

你很难向没有经历过互联网狂热的人解释清楚那段日子。那时候,科技公司和它们的投资人坚信,商业已经发生前所未有的变化。无须考虑利润,只要能抓眼球,其他事以后再说。

互联网泡沫时期,到处都在疯狂撒钱。

注册投资顾问史蒂芬·亚金当时为数家大型经纪公司工作。他和妻子都爱好帆船运动,他们在圣托马斯度假时,在码头看到了一艘漂亮的风帆游艇,船尾写着名字:Dot Calm(与网站的英文词“dotcom”谐音)。

“在圣托马斯的那艘船,是我看到的第一个警示。”亚金说。游艇的主人适时套现了,但大多数人可没有这么幸运。

“真难以想象,互联网泡沫持续了那么长时间。”亚金说,“上世纪90年代,股市形势大好,所有人都认为,它会一直涨下去。”

终于有一天涨不动了。

亚金不仅知道加杠杆和过度扩张的威力,也知道这么做的危险。“(美联储前主席)格林斯潘认为,自保意识会让银行和对冲基金好好自我控制,因为没有人想死。”这种理性的自私能确保市场出现调整时不至于失控。

“但是太多的投资者以为,总会有人来保护他们。”亚金解释说,“所以他们当中很多人过度使用了杠杆。投资者最好明白,不要指望有人救你,一定要有危险意识。”

经济大衰退熊市

08年经济大衰退造成史上最大的一次金融崩溃,其影响至今难以彻底消除。那次熊市过后,人们迎来了史上最长的一次牛市,其终结于2020年3月9日。

“08年1月就出现过一个卖股高潮,我投资的市场本来跌个10%或20%就可以见底了,”Smead 资产管理公司的首席执行官比尔·斯米德说,但当时这样有特殊性,“当时有两个利好因素:石油和中国经济。因为中国崛起,投资者极度看涨石油,认为中国会成为世界最大和最成功的经济体,二十年前,这个经济体还不存在。”

2008年6月27日,投资者挤在纽约证券交易所的交易大厅。

过了一段时间,投资者才意识到,金融领域有一些生僻的地方,潜伏着巨大的风险。斯米德说:“人们发现,自己犯了这么多错误,根本没法知晓金融系统内部到底发生了什么,这一想法带来了巨大恐惧,最终引发股市崩盘。”

有一本书帮助了斯米德:阿米蒂·施莱斯的《被遗忘的人:大萧条新史》。“我当时觉得,我得回过头看历史,理解大萧条时期发生了什么,这样才能帮到客户。”斯米德说,这本书让他得以拉开与当下的距离,获得了亟需的视角。

例如,他发现,尽管GDP的78%都来自消费者支出,但真正自由支配的部分仅为20%,“电费是消费者支出,买房是消费者支出,这是雷打不动的。”也就是说,GDP跌再多,也会有个相对的垫底部分。

类似的,失业会出现在某些领域,不一定遍及所有行业。在2008年经济危机中,首当其冲的是楼市相关产业,如房地产中介、产权公司、房屋检查业等。“高峰时,这个行业占到美国成人就业的4%。”斯米德说。而1929年经济危机时,45%的就业人口受雇于农业,没有存款保险的银行的倒闭摧毁了储蓄和流动性,迫使大量农民破产。斯米德意识到,一定要着眼于当前,而非历史上经济危机时的市场环境。

这一次,市场因为新冠疫情而遭受重创,何时反弹也看不清楚。沙特和俄罗斯持续打压油价,导致一些企业破产,比如一些杠杆过高的美国能源公司。这一次,还是没有人预见到引发股市暴跌的导火索。

现在能做的,只有死等,记得还有买入机会,别把摊子铺得太大,时刻关注当下的市场环境,还有,不要忘了,即便是最严重的熊市,也终有反转的那一天。(财富中文网)

译者:MS

责编:雨晨

“It’s different this time.”

That, says Hank Smith, co–chief investment officer at The Haverford Trust Co., is what every bear market feels like. “The common theme is fear and panic,” he says, and a feeling that “we have not been here before.”

A series of big losses, repeating in cycles, spooks investors, who then start to panic. Just as conditions seem to be getting better, things fall again.

That’s exactly what happened earlier this month. The Dow had its biggest one-day loss on March 12, 2020, since the 1987 all-time record and dropped into bear market territory, with the S&P 500 following. Though there have since been a few up days—including the best day percentage-wise since 1933—many investors are settling in for an unsettling time.

Understanding a bear market, especially for those who haven’t experienced one before, can be maddening. Investors—including everyone with a 401(k) or IRA—can’t know they’re in one until after it begins. And there’s no telling how long it will last.

For perspective, we turned to Wall Street veterans who lived through the three most recent big bear markets—the 1987 crash, the dotcom crash, and the financial collapse.

1987 bear market

When people talk of the 1987 crash—Black Monday—it’s typically a reference to one of the biggest one-day percentage market drops ever. On Oct. 19 of that year, the S&P 500 fell by 20.5%, which was a lot easier back then given how much smaller the values were compared with current values over 2,500. Remarkably, that bear market only lasted a relatively short three months.

What comes first to mind for Judith Villarreal, general counsel and chief compliance officer for CoreCap Investments, is something else. At the time, she was working in compliance at a firm that cleared almost all of the market index futures traders in Chicago.

It was a manic day. The company ordinarily guaranteed the finances of the professionals trading on the then exotic futures markets. Business was so furious that one of the owners had to write a $6 million check to the firm the next day to cover all the trades. Employees placing the transactions from traders were all men. Management gave each a razor and a coffee can (to avoid bathroom breaks), and told them to stay in place.

Villarreal had a tiny office across from the kitchen. “Every time someone walked by me, they said, ‘Another hundred points down,’” she recalls.

Some people knew the previous good times wouldn’t last, but that didn’t help when the market orders hit the fan. “The fundamentals didn’t support the prices, and yet everyone was shocked that the markets corrected themselves,” Villarreal says.

“If you’re worried about whether social security is going to be there, and your 401(k) is worth 22% less today than yesterday, and you can’t buy toilet paper, the effects are cumulative and affecting consumers in ways the 1987 crash didn’t,” she adds. “That makes it a wider-spread panic.” But she has advice from then.

“I was very young in ’87," remembers Villarreal. “What the older professionals were saying was, when the market does this, you should look at it like when Macy’s puts stuff on sale. You have the opportunity to buy good stuff cheap. And that’s eventually what turns the market around.”

Dotcom bear market

For those who don’t remember dotcom madness, it can be hard to explain. Tech companies, and their investors, swore that business was different than ever before. No need to think of profits. Just get eyeballs—and figure out what to do with them later.

The money tossed around was outrageous.

Stephen Akin, a registered investment adviser who worked for some major brokers back then, and his wife were sailing enthusiasts. On a vacation in St. Thomas, they saw a sweet sailing yacht at the dock. On the back was painted the name, Dot Calm.

“When I saw that boat in St. Thomas, that was the first red flag for me,” Akin says. The owners had cashed out while they could. Most were not so lucky.

“It was amazing how long it went,” Akin says. “When you’re in a rising market like we had in the ’90s, everyone kept thinking it would go and go and go.”

Until it didn’t.

Akin remembers not just the power, but the danger, of leverage and overextension. “[Former Federal Reserve chair Alan] Greenspan’s philosophy thought self-preservation would keep the banks and hedge funds in line, because no one wanted to die.” That rational self-interest would be the corrective safety brake.

“But [too many investors] thought someone would protect them,” explains Akin. “That’s why so many of them got so leveraged out.” It’s wiser to realize that, in investing, you can’t count on a rescue and should assume you’re working without a net.

Great recession bear market

Even today, it’s hard to get away from the biggest financial meltdown since the Great Depression. The aftermath has had a long reach even after the bear market turned to the longest bull run ever—one that finally ended Mar. 9, 2020.

“We had a selling climax in January of ’08 that would have bottomed at 80% or 90% of the markets I’d been in,” says Bill Smead, CEO and lead portfolio of Smead Capital Management.

But the time wasn’t normal. “There were two things doing well: energy and China-related activities,” Smead recalls. “People were incredibly bullish about oil because of the emergence of what people thought would be the largest and most successful economy in the world that didn’t exist 20 years before.”

It took a while for investors to realize how much danger was lurking in arcane parts of the financial world. “What exacerbated the final part of [the collapse] was the complete and total fear that came from the idea that because of all the mistakes they made, you couldn’t know what was inside the financial system,” Smead says.

What helped Smead was a book: The Forgotten Man: A New History of the Great Depression by Amity Shlaes. “I felt like I had to go back and understand what had happened in the Depression to be useful to my clients,” Smead recalls. What he got was some distance from the current times and much-needed perspective.

For example, he realized that while 78% of GDP owes to consumer spending, only 20% was really discretionary. “Your electric bill is consumer spending,” Smead notes. “Your housing is consumer spending.” In other words, there was a relative bottom to how low GDP could fall.

Similarly, unemployment happens in sectors, not necessarily everywhere. In the 2008 crash, the heart of the impact came in housing: real estate brokerages, title companies, inspection businesses. “At the peak, it was 4% of all U.S. adult employment,” he says. That was unlike the 1929 crash where “45% of adults were employed in agriculture,” and the crash of banks without deposit insurance destroyed savings and liquidity, forcing many farmers out of business.

Smead realized that he had to look at current market conditions, not those of the previous downturn.

This time, markets are struggling with COVID-19 and the accompanying lack of clarity about when things will turn around. Saudi Arabia and Russia continue to drive down oil prices and push others, like over-leveraged U.S. energy companies, out of business. Again, the triggers are things no one expected.

All people can do is hang in, remember buying opportunities, avoid overextension, look at the conditions governing current markets—and remember that even the worst bear markets eventually turn around.

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