这是自2008年以来最严重的经济衰退。
根据美国经济分析局4月29日发布的数据,2020年第一季度,美国实际GDP比去年同期下降了4.8%。 而据Refinitiv的调查,经济学家们预计全年GDP将下降4%。
当日又有报道,与截至3月31日第一季度的下降不一样,2020年第四季度将会有2.1%的增长。
安联旗下贸易信保公司裕利安宜的高级经济学家丹·诺斯说:“需要往回看,这次尤其要往回看,一切都在3月中旬发生了变化。”在3月的最后两个星期,有将近1,020万美国人提出了失业救济申请。此后的三周内,又增加了1,630万份申请。
诺思告诉《财富》,封城措施的影响将在第二季度全面显现,他预计届时GDP将急剧下降30%。
穆迪货币政策研究部主管赖恩·斯威特写道:“美国经济在三月份陷入困境,其影响在第一季度GDP上有所显现……但这与未来的情况相比,不值一提。”(财富中文网)
译者:晨曦
这是自2008年以来最严重的经济衰退。
根据美国经济分析局4月29日发布的数据,2020年第一季度,美国实际GDP比去年同期下降了4.8%。 而据Refinitiv的调查,经济学家们预计全年GDP将下降4%。
当日又有报道,与截至3月31日第一季度的下降不一样,2020年第四季度将会有2.1%的增长。
安联旗下贸易信保公司裕利安宜的高级经济学家丹·诺斯说:“需要往回看,这次尤其要往回看,一切都在3月中旬发生了变化。”在3月的最后两个星期,有将近1,020万美国人提出了失业救济申请。此后的三周内,又增加了1,630万份申请。
诺思告诉《财富》,封城措施的影响将在第二季度全面显现,他预计届时GDP将急剧下降30%。
穆迪货币政策研究部主管赖恩·斯威特写道:“美国经济在三月份陷入困境,其影响在第一季度GDP上有所显现……但这与未来的情况相比,不值一提。”(财富中文网)
译者:晨曦
The economy had its worst contraction since 2008.
In the first quarter of 2020 the U.S. real GDP declined by 4.8% from the same period a year ago, according to data published Wednesday by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Economists polled by Refinitiv were expecting a 4% drop at an annualized rate.
Today's reported fall, for the quarter ending March 31, compares to a 2.1% increase in the fourth quarter of 2020.
"It is backward looking, and especially backward looking this time. Everything changed in the middle of March," says Dan North, senior economist at Euler Hermes. In the final two weeks of March, nearly 10.2 million Americans filed unemployment claims. In the three weeks since we've had another 16.3 million claims.
In the second quarter North told Fortune he projects a staggering 30% drop in GDP as the full impact of the coronavirus shutdowns are felt.
“The U.S. economy ran into a brick wall in March and some of the impact will be visible in first-quarter GDP… but [it's] nothing compared to what’s ahead,” wrote Ryan Sweet, Head of Monetary Policy Research at Moody’s Analytics.