由于今年的股市走势十分神秘,而且又是大选年,因此不乏有预言家们从华尔街寻找谁将在11月赢得美国总统大选的蛛丝马迹。
投资经纪商LPL Financial指出,股市可以告诉我们乔•拜登与唐纳德•特朗普之间谁将赢得美国总统大选。自1984年以来,股票市场就一直正确地预测出谁将赢得美国总统大选。而且从1928年开始,标普500指数预测谁将赢得美国总统大选的准确率高达87%。
当标普500指数在大选前三个月走高时,现任政党通常会获胜,而当指数走低时,现任政党通常会落败。
当然,目前距离选举日还有四个多月的时间,现在就从股市寻找迹象可能为时过早。但如果事情像这样继续下去,特朗普可能会遇到麻烦。标普500指数自6月8日突破3200点以来,一直下跌。
LPL Financial的高级市场策略师瑞安•德特里克说:“2016年,除了股票市场,几乎没有人预计唐纳德•特朗普会击败希拉里•克林顿。”他还指出,2016年11月大选前,道琼斯工业平均指数连续9天下跌,而铜(被投资者视为特朗普总统的基础设施投资)则连续14天上涨,创下历史新高。
LPL表示,这些动态暗示着“白宫的政党领导层换届”即将到来,并可能于2020年再次发生。
今年美国大选结果是否会被股市运行方向所印证?我们拭目以待。(财富中文网)
编译:于佳鑫
由于今年的股市走势十分神秘,而且又是大选年,因此不乏有预言家们从华尔街寻找谁将在11月赢得美国总统大选的蛛丝马迹。
投资经纪商LPL Financial指出,股市可以告诉我们乔•拜登与唐纳德•特朗普之间谁将赢得美国总统大选。自1984年以来,股票市场就一直正确地预测出谁将赢得美国总统大选。而且从1928年开始,标普500指数预测谁将赢得美国总统大选的准确率高达87%。
当标普500指数在大选前三个月走高时,现任政党通常会获胜,而当指数走低时,现任政党通常会落败。
当然,目前距离选举日还有四个多月的时间,现在就从股市寻找迹象可能为时过早。但如果事情像这样继续下去,特朗普可能会遇到麻烦。标普500指数自6月8日突破3200点以来,一直下跌。
LPL Financial的高级市场策略师瑞安•德特里克说:“2016年,除了股票市场,几乎没有人预计唐纳德•特朗普会击败希拉里•克林顿。”他还指出,2016年11月大选前,道琼斯工业平均指数连续9天下跌,而铜(被投资者视为特朗普总统的基础设施投资)则连续14天上涨,创下历史新高。
LPL表示,这些动态暗示着“白宫的政党领导层换届”即将到来,并可能于2020年再次发生。
今年美国大选结果是否会被股市运行方向所印证?我们拭目以待。(财富中文网)
编译:于佳鑫
As this year has shown, the stock market moves in mysterious ways. And since it’s an election year, there’s no shortage of prognosticators looking to Wall Street’s machinations for an indication of who will win the White House in November.
The folks at investment brokerage LPL Financial have offered one theory on what the stock market tells us about America’s upcoming choice between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. In fact, LPL notes that the performance of the S&P 500 has accurately predicted the winner of the election 87% of the time since 1928—and every single election year since 1984.
It works like this: when the S&P 500 is trending higher as of three months before the election, the incumbent party usually wins; when the index is moving lower, the incumbent usually loses.
Of course, with a little more than four months to go until Election Day, it may be too early to look to the market for signs. But if things continue as they have, President Trump could be in trouble. Since topping 3,200 points on June 8—capping off its extraordinary rebound from March’s heavy, coronavirus-induced correction—the S&P 500 has been on a downward trend.
“No one expected Hillary Clinton to lose back in 2016—no one except the stock market, that is,” according to LPL senior market strategist Ryan Detrick. Detrick also points to examples even closer to election day as an indication; he notes the Dow’s “nine-day losing streak directly ahead of the election” in November 2016, while the price of copper—which investors viewed as a “President Trump infrastructure play”—increased for a record 14 days in a row.
Those dynamics hinted at "the change in party leadership in the White House” to come, and may do so again in 2020, according to LPL.
So far, both the polls and the bookies seem to believe that a change could be in the cards. As Election Day inches closer, we’ll see whether the stock market agrees.