首页 500强 活动 榜单 商业 科技 领导力 专题 品牌中心
杂志订阅

美国外卖三足鼎立格局形成,配送费会涨吗?

Danielle Abril
2020-07-09

消费者的担忧是,只有百花齐放才会物美价廉,寡头垄断只会店大欺客。

文本设置
小号
默认
大号
Plus(0条)

据报道,Uber有意以26.5亿美元收购它在美国外卖市场上的主要竞争对手Postmates,这也让竞争本就十分激烈的外卖市场愈发白热化。虽然收购之后,市面上的主要竞争少了一家,但消费者关心的问题是,只有百花齐放才会物美价廉,寡头垄断只会店大欺客——我以后要想点一份披萨、炒粉或者卷饼什么的,是不是就要向平台支付更高的跑腿费了?

在三位分析师看来,从某种角度看,这是很有可能的。

投行机构D.A. Davidson的分析师汤姆•怀特对《财富》表示:“从中长期来看,我认为行业整合将导致外卖食品价格上涨。因为这些企业也是需要盈利的。”

有分析师表示,下一步,消费者可能会发现,各大外卖平台的促销活动减少了,或者是配送费用增加了,这些都会是正常现象。即便没有Postmates和Grubhub等平台被收购的事,这种改变也很可能依然会发生。(上个月,欧洲的Just Eat Takeaway公司同意以73亿美元收购Grubhub。)

投行机构Needham & Co的分析师布拉德·埃里克森也表示:“Uber的态度很明显,促销已经是过去的事情了。我的观点是,随着这些企业越做越大,促销活动也越来越少。”

过去几个月,由于很多人待在家里躲疫情的缘故,Uber Eats、DoorDash和Postmates等外卖平台的业务迎来了爆炸式增长。与此同时,美国也有很多城市规定餐馆不得开放堂食,只能做外卖业务。不过尽管各大外卖平台的业务增长迅速,这些平台的亏损额仍然是个天文数字。这是因为这些平台前期都采取了赔本赚吆喝的策略,一边给予消费者大量折扣,一边还要花钱补贴骑手,亏损也就在情理之中了。

新冠疫情带火了美国的外卖行业,不过他们仍然需要削减开支,想方设法朝盈利的方向努力——就跟网约车行业一样,一开始采用的都是赔本引流战术。当中小平台被绞杀殆尽后,就该考虑盈利的事儿了。

经纪公司AB Bernstein的分析师马克•施穆利克表示,从网约车市场的经验可以推测,外卖市场的配送费很可能也不会搞“一刀切”的提价,而是会采取“一城一策”的战略,由平台决定在哪些城市先减少促销活动和提高配送费。在接手了Postmates和它的用户群之后,Uber Eats很可能会在一些以前一直难以火起来的市场打开局面,比如洛杉矶、圣地亚哥、凤凰城和拉斯维加斯等城市。

施穆利克认为:“变化会首先在大城市里出现。这些公司会展开竞争,而且他们会决定先在哪些城市进行价格调整。”

怀特指出,各大外卖平台可能会在开源和节流上同时发力,既削减营销成本——比如取消免配送费政策,又提高配送费,以促进盈利。现在,美国外卖市场已呈现Grubhub、Uber Eats和DoorDash三足鼎立的局面,它们各自都要找到增加收入的方法。考虑到疫情给餐饮行业的生存带来了不小的压力,各大平台不太可能会增加餐馆的负担。这样一来,就只能靠消费者的“转移支付”了。

埃里克森却并不同意这种看法。他认为,促销活动的减少(最近美国各大外卖平台的促销活动已经不那么常见了),再加上需求的增长,和整合带来的效率提高,已经足以让这些平台走上盈利的道路了。他还表示,各大外卖平台都意识到了用户对价格的敏感性。在很多情况下,提高配送费用,就意味着用户会转投其他平台的怀抱。

埃里克森表示:“这些公司一直在测试消费者的价格敏感性,所以他们对什么能做、什么不能做有清醒的认识。当他们谈盈利问题是,他们谈的并不是提高消费者的配送费。”

Uber此前曾尝试收购过Grubhub,只不过由于反垄断因素而失败了。埃里克森说,出于同样的考虑,Uber很可能会保持低调,不会很快提高价格。如果反垄断机构的调查再次启动,Uber眼下的这笔收购有可能又会被推迟几个月。

施穆利克表示,虽然消费者以后能享受到免配送费的机会可能越来越少了,但这笔收购对消费者总归还是有利的。

“消费者可能花了很长时间,还没法决定在这些APP上吃什么。不过选择越少,大家决定自己想什么就越简单了。”(财富中文网)

译者:隋远洙

据报道,Uber有意以26.5亿美元收购它在美国外卖市场上的主要竞争对手Postmates,这也让竞争本就十分激烈的外卖市场愈发白热化。虽然收购之后,市面上的主要竞争少了一家,但消费者关心的问题是,只有百花齐放才会物美价廉,寡头垄断只会店大欺客——我以后要想点一份披萨、炒粉或者卷饼什么的,是不是就要向平台支付更高的跑腿费了?

在三位分析师看来,从某种角度看,这是很有可能的。

投行机构D.A. Davidson的分析师汤姆•怀特对《财富》表示:“从中长期来看,我认为行业整合将导致外卖食品价格上涨。因为这些企业也是需要盈利的。”

有分析师表示,下一步,消费者可能会发现,各大外卖平台的促销活动减少了,或者是配送费用增加了,这些都会是正常现象。即便没有Postmates和Grubhub等平台被收购的事,这种改变也很可能依然会发生。(上个月,欧洲的Just Eat Takeaway公司同意以73亿美元收购Grubhub。)

投行机构Needham & Co的分析师布拉德·埃里克森也表示:“Uber的态度很明显,促销已经是过去的事情了。我的观点是,随着这些企业越做越大,促销活动也越来越少。”

过去几个月,由于很多人待在家里躲疫情的缘故,Uber Eats、DoorDash和Postmates等外卖平台的业务迎来了爆炸式增长。与此同时,美国也有很多城市规定餐馆不得开放堂食,只能做外卖业务。不过尽管各大外卖平台的业务增长迅速,这些平台的亏损额仍然是个天文数字。这是因为这些平台前期都采取了赔本赚吆喝的策略,一边给予消费者大量折扣,一边还要花钱补贴骑手,亏损也就在情理之中了。

新冠疫情带火了美国的外卖行业,不过他们仍然需要削减开支,想方设法朝盈利的方向努力——就跟网约车行业一样,一开始采用的都是赔本引流战术。当中小平台被绞杀殆尽后,就该考虑盈利的事儿了。

经纪公司AB Bernstein的分析师马克•施穆利克表示,从网约车市场的经验可以推测,外卖市场的配送费很可能也不会搞“一刀切”的提价,而是会采取“一城一策”的战略,由平台决定在哪些城市先减少促销活动和提高配送费。在接手了Postmates和它的用户群之后,Uber Eats很可能会在一些以前一直难以火起来的市场打开局面,比如洛杉矶、圣地亚哥、凤凰城和拉斯维加斯等城市。

施穆利克认为:“变化会首先在大城市里出现。这些公司会展开竞争,而且他们会决定先在哪些城市进行价格调整。”

怀特指出,各大外卖平台可能会在开源和节流上同时发力,既削减营销成本——比如取消免配送费政策,又提高配送费,以促进盈利。现在,美国外卖市场已呈现Grubhub、Uber Eats和DoorDash三足鼎立的局面,它们各自都要找到增加收入的方法。考虑到疫情给餐饮行业的生存带来了不小的压力,各大平台不太可能会增加餐馆的负担。这样一来,就只能靠消费者的“转移支付”了。

埃里克森却并不同意这种看法。他认为,促销活动的减少(最近美国各大外卖平台的促销活动已经不那么常见了),再加上需求的增长,和整合带来的效率提高,已经足以让这些平台走上盈利的道路了。他还表示,各大外卖平台都意识到了用户对价格的敏感性。在很多情况下,提高配送费用,就意味着用户会转投其他平台的怀抱。

埃里克森表示:“这些公司一直在测试消费者的价格敏感性,所以他们对什么能做、什么不能做有清醒的认识。当他们谈盈利问题是,他们谈的并不是提高消费者的配送费。”

Uber此前曾尝试收购过Grubhub,只不过由于反垄断因素而失败了。埃里克森说,出于同样的考虑,Uber很可能会保持低调,不会很快提高价格。如果反垄断机构的调查再次启动,Uber眼下的这笔收购有可能又会被推迟几个月。

施穆利克表示,虽然消费者以后能享受到免配送费的机会可能越来越少了,但这笔收购对消费者总归还是有利的。

“消费者可能花了很长时间,还没法决定在这些APP上吃什么。不过选择越少,大家决定自己想什么就越简单了。”(财富中文网)

译者:隋远洙

Uber’s planned $2.65 billion acquisition of rival Postmates is turning up the heat in an already hot food-delivery market. But as the number of competitors shrinks, one question remains: Will fewer delivery services result in higher prices for people who want their pizza, pad thai, and tacos delivered to their homes?

The answer, according to three analysts is: probably, in some form.

“Over the intermediate and long term I would expect that consolidation will lead to higher prices for diners,” Tom White, analyst for investment banking firm D.A. Davidson, told Fortune. “These businesses need to get profitable.”

Analysts said consumers will likely see either fewer promotions for free delivery or an increase in delivery fees in the future. But they said such changes would have likely occurred even without the recent proposed acquisitions of Postmates and Grubhub, which Europe’s Just Eat Takeaway agreed to buy for $7.3 billion last month.

“Uber has been pretty clear that [promotions are] a thing of the past,” said Brad Erickson, an analyst at investment banking firm Needham & Co. “My view is, as these businesses get bigger, it’ll happen less and less.”

Food delivery companies like Uber Eats, DoorDash, and Postmates have experienced explosive growth in the past few months, as more people stayed home because of the coronavirus pandemic. Meanwhile, more restaurants turned to the services following city mandates that allowed eateries to fulfill only takeout and delivery orders, analysts said. But the rapidly growing food delivery services are still suffering from big losses, mainly the result of steep diner discounts and big driver incentives.

Though the coronavirus has altered the outlook for these services, they’re still expected to crack down on expenses and start working toward profitability—following a similar approach to ride-sharing services.

Mark Shmulik, analyst at brokerage firm AB Bernstein, said that as seen with ride-sharing, price changes will likely happen city by city, as food delivery services determine where they can pull back on promotions or raise delivery fees. Acquiring Postmates and its clientele will likely help Uber Eats in places—including Los Angeles, San Diego, Phoenix, and Las Vegas—where it has historically struggled to gain popularity.

“This is going to play out on a metro-market level,” Shmulik said. “These companies are going to battle it out, and they’re going to pick and choose which cities’ [prices]” will change.

Food delivery services will likely have to both cut some marketing costs, such as free delivery promotions, and raise delivery fee prices to reach profitability, White said. With three large players, Grubhub, Uber Eats, and DoorDash, in competition, each will have to find some way to increase revenue. Given the economic pressures the coronavirus has placed on restaurants, White said, the services likely won’t increase fees for eateries. Therefore, consumers will likely have to pay more.

But Erickson disagreed. He said fewer promotions, which already aren’t as common these days, combined with increasing efficiency fueled by growing demand and consolidation will be enough to get these companies on the path to profitability. He added that food delivery services are aware of their customers’ price sensitivity, and that driving up delivery fees in a lot of cases means driving away customers.

“[The companies] test that all the time, so they have a keen sense of what they can do and can’t do,” Erickson said. “When they talk about getting to profitability, it’s not about raising the [delivery fee] for consumers.”

Because Uber’s proposed acquisition of Grubhub reportedly fell apart owing to antitrust concerns, Erickson said Uber will likely lie low and not raise prices anytime soon. An antitrust investigation could postpone the deal for several months, at least.

At the end of the day, though consumers may have less opportunities for free delivery, the acquisition works in their favor, said Shmulik.

“Consumers probably spend way too much time figuring out what to eat on these apps,” he said. “The fewer there are, the simpler it is to figure out what we want to eat.”

财富中文网所刊载内容之知识产权为财富媒体知识产权有限公司及/或相关权利人专属所有或持有。未经许可,禁止进行转载、摘编、复制及建立镜像等任何使用。
0条Plus
精彩评论
评论

撰写或查看更多评论

请打开财富Plus APP

前往打开