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需求萎缩就只能靠降价了?巴菲特给出了建议

Geoff Colvin
2020-07-16

价格专家们一致建议,各公司在定价时应当多一些勇气和创造性。

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沃伦•巴菲特是一个激进的定价者。大多时候,他不会过问公司经理人的工作,但如果涉及定价问题,无论是喜诗糖果的巧克力还是布法罗新闻的报纸(伯克希尔哈撒韦在1972年收购了喜诗糖果,1977年收购了《布法罗新闻报》—译者注),他总喜欢参与其中。

他曾向《财富》杂志解释说:“公司经理人手里往往就一桩生意,经过盘算,他会觉得,定价偏低可能没什么大问题,但如果定价偏高,他可能会把这辈子的事业都给毁了。”巴菲特认为,这种对风险的过度厌恶只会让他们错过赚钱的机会,所以他经常鼓励经理人把价格定得再高一些,而事实证明,他往往是对的。

即便在历史性的经济下行时期,我们依然应该牢记巴菲特的建议。许多经理人会低估定价的力量,而在经济面临重重问题的当下,价格专家们一致建议,各公司在定价时应当多一些勇气和创造性。对于那些需求大幅下降的行业而言,降价可能是个糟糕透顶的主意,而且可能完全没有必要。

在一些像洗手液这样的特殊行业,疫情大幅提升了市场需求。但即便在这些行业,经理人在定价时也需要一些勇气,控制自己不去5倍、10倍、20倍的加价,不去挑战市场承受的极限。只有那些谋划长远的人才会成为最终的赢家,虽然这一点在危机之中并不容易做到。

和洗手液行业不同,目前大多数行业都遇到了客户收入减少、市场需求萎缩的问题,对他们而言,第一要务就是要尽可能地避免降价,也即业内专家所谓的“维持价格诚信”。贝恩咨询公司全球定价业务的负责人罗恩•科尔米什表示,在B2B行业,“客户要求降价的压力很大,这也反应了客户并不确定是否应该继续采购货品。企业为了推动销售,往往也很快就同意了顾客降价的要求,而并没有真正弄明白为什么客户在采购时会犹豫不决。”

有创造力的经理人可以通过许多方法在保持价格稳定的同时减轻客户的顾虑:比如,延长付款期限。而如果客户是担心不确定性,那么则可以给其提供期限较短的合同,或者提供额外的服务,比如协助他们集成新软件等。

即便一定要给客户优惠,维持既定价格也是至关重要的。以B2C领域为例,多家四季酒店采取了与上次经济下行时期相同的策略:为客人提供第三晚或第四晚免费住宿的优惠,既让客人得到了更多实惠,也将账单上的房费价格维持在了原来的水平。丽思卡尔顿酒店为部分客人提供了每天100美元的“度假代金券”,可以用于支付餐饮、水疗或其他服务的费用,在没有降低房价的情况下降低了客人的总支出。

有人会问,难道没人看出商家是在变相降价么?如果价格不变,客户却能享受到更多服务,这不很明显是在降价么?实际上,两者之间还是有差别的,而且这种差别还很重要。在定价理论中,有种东西叫“参考价格”,也就是客户为产品或服务所支付过的最低价格。消费者往往会记住这个价格,并将未来看到的价格与之进行比较。为产品或服务提供的一次性优惠可能不太容易记住或估价,但参考价格却非常清晰,一旦降价,客户就会想,我为什么要付更多钱来享受同样的产品或服务呢?

而这只是降价危害的开始。降价的负面影响往往会大于正面效应。如果你降价20%,那么要想维持收入,你就得多卖25%的产品。在经济严重低迷的情况下,增加这么多销量的可能性有多大?要是有竞争对手匹配了你的降价幅度,那情况就更糟了。不同行业的经济状况各不相同,但麦肯锡的研究发现,如一家标准普尔1500指数成分股公司降价5%,那么要想收回成本,就必须增加19%的销量,而这种增幅几乎不可能。虽然不降价可能意味着销量减少、利润降低,但降价的危害只会有过之而无不及。

降价长期影响的危害性可能更大,即便只是临时降价,客户也会对下次降价促销抱有期望,助长其“薅羊毛”的行为。更有甚者,降价可能还会有损品牌价值。

在以高昂价格为产品特征、品牌形象为关键要素的奢侈品行业尤其如此。传统观点认为,该行业已从2008-09年的金融危机中吸取了教训,当时,萨克斯第五大道和其他高档消费场所的奢侈品价格给出了低至3折的折扣。现在,这种情境又一次上演:在华伦天奴的官网上,连衣裙5折出售,而在其它地方,更是低至3折;在Matchesfashion.com上,华伦天奴的串珠礼服已从30,000美元降价至区区9,000美元。原价购买商品的消费者可能现在已经下定决心,以后再也不会犯这种错误。这种情况在多数产品与服务行业都在上演,甚为普遍。

即便你曾发誓绝不降价,但面对巨大的经济冲击,可能你仍会发现除了降价别无选择。但即便如此,你还是可以通过要求一些回报来减轻降价对你造成的损失。比如,贝恩最近的研究发现,在要求软件供应商减免费用的首席信息官中,有81%获得了费用减免,而在获得费用减免的首席信息官中,有80%提供了某种回报,比如延长合同、扩大未来合同的涵盖范围或者提早续约。科尔米什表示:“客户是会愿意给你一定回报的,作为供应商,你需要表现出自己的同理心,但同样的,客户也能理解你是要做生意的。”

那么如果销售的是疫情期间供不应求的热销产品,你该怎么办呢?建议很简单:不要漫天要价。即便市场承受得了暴涨的价格,你也无法承受因此而带来的声誉打击。从华盛顿州到华盛顿特区,美国各州总检察长已对多家零售商发起诉讼或下令要求其停止不正当竞争,原因就是这些零售商以过高价格销售次氯酸钠、洗手液和相关产品。别让这种事发生在你身上。要眼光长远,而不是急功近利。

定价是一门被低估的技术。没有哪个高管的头衔里挂着“价格”二字。Simon Kucher&Partners咨询公司的研究发现,“只有12%的公司相信自己可以通过调整价格来提高利润”。大多数管理者都应该对定价事宜多加关注,疫情期间更是如此,只有充分发挥自己所能获得的每一项优势,才能熬过寒冬。 (财富中文网)

译者:梁宇

审校:夏林

沃伦•巴菲特是一个激进的定价者。大多时候,他不会过问公司经理人的工作,但如果涉及定价问题,无论是喜诗糖果的巧克力还是布法罗新闻的报纸(伯克希尔哈撒韦在1972年收购了喜诗糖果,1977年收购了《布法罗新闻报》—译者注),他总喜欢参与其中。

他曾向《财富》杂志解释说:“公司经理人手里往往就一桩生意,经过盘算,他会觉得,定价偏低可能没什么大问题,但如果定价偏高,他可能会把这辈子的事业都给毁了。”巴菲特认为,这种对风险的过度厌恶只会让他们错过赚钱的机会,所以他经常鼓励经理人把价格定得再高一些,而事实证明,他往往是对的。

即便在历史性的经济下行时期,我们依然应该牢记巴菲特的建议。许多经理人会低估定价的力量,而在经济面临重重问题的当下,价格专家们一致建议,各公司在定价时应当多一些勇气和创造性。对于那些需求大幅下降的行业而言,降价可能是个糟糕透顶的主意,而且可能完全没有必要。

在一些像洗手液这样的特殊行业,疫情大幅提升了市场需求。但即便在这些行业,经理人在定价时也需要一些勇气,控制自己不去5倍、10倍、20倍的加价,不去挑战市场承受的极限。只有那些谋划长远的人才会成为最终的赢家,虽然这一点在危机之中并不容易做到。

和洗手液行业不同,目前大多数行业都遇到了客户收入减少、市场需求萎缩的问题,对他们而言,第一要务就是要尽可能地避免降价,也即业内专家所谓的“维持价格诚信”。贝恩咨询公司全球定价业务的负责人罗恩•科尔米什表示,在B2B行业,“客户要求降价的压力很大,这也反应了客户并不确定是否应该继续采购货品。企业为了推动销售,往往也很快就同意了顾客降价的要求,而并没有真正弄明白为什么客户在采购时会犹豫不决。”

有创造力的经理人可以通过许多方法在保持价格稳定的同时减轻客户的顾虑:比如,延长付款期限。而如果客户是担心不确定性,那么则可以给其提供期限较短的合同,或者提供额外的服务,比如协助他们集成新软件等。

即便一定要给客户优惠,维持既定价格也是至关重要的。以B2C领域为例,多家四季酒店采取了与上次经济下行时期相同的策略:为客人提供第三晚或第四晚免费住宿的优惠,既让客人得到了更多实惠,也将账单上的房费价格维持在了原来的水平。丽思卡尔顿酒店为部分客人提供了每天100美元的“度假代金券”,可以用于支付餐饮、水疗或其他服务的费用,在没有降低房价的情况下降低了客人的总支出。

有人会问,难道没人看出商家是在变相降价么?如果价格不变,客户却能享受到更多服务,这不很明显是在降价么?实际上,两者之间还是有差别的,而且这种差别还很重要。在定价理论中,有种东西叫“参考价格”,也就是客户为产品或服务所支付过的最低价格。消费者往往会记住这个价格,并将未来看到的价格与之进行比较。为产品或服务提供的一次性优惠可能不太容易记住或估价,但参考价格却非常清晰,一旦降价,客户就会想,我为什么要付更多钱来享受同样的产品或服务呢?

而这只是降价危害的开始。降价的负面影响往往会大于正面效应。如果你降价20%,那么要想维持收入,你就得多卖25%的产品。在经济严重低迷的情况下,增加这么多销量的可能性有多大?要是有竞争对手匹配了你的降价幅度,那情况就更糟了。不同行业的经济状况各不相同,但麦肯锡的研究发现,如一家标准普尔1500指数成分股公司降价5%,那么要想收回成本,就必须增加19%的销量,而这种增幅几乎不可能。虽然不降价可能意味着销量减少、利润降低,但降价的危害只会有过之而无不及。

降价长期影响的危害性可能更大,即便只是临时降价,客户也会对下次降价促销抱有期望,助长其“薅羊毛”的行为。更有甚者,降价可能还会有损品牌价值。

在以高昂价格为产品特征、品牌形象为关键要素的奢侈品行业尤其如此。传统观点认为,该行业已从2008-09年的金融危机中吸取了教训,当时,萨克斯第五大道和其他高档消费场所的奢侈品价格给出了低至3折的折扣。现在,这种情境又一次上演:在华伦天奴的官网上,连衣裙5折出售,而在其它地方,更是低至3折;在Matchesfashion.com上,华伦天奴的串珠礼服已从30,000美元降价至区区9,000美元。原价购买商品的消费者可能现在已经下定决心,以后再也不会犯这种错误。这种情况在多数产品与服务行业都在上演,甚为普遍。

即便你曾发誓绝不降价,但面对巨大的经济冲击,可能你仍会发现除了降价别无选择。但即便如此,你还是可以通过要求一些回报来减轻降价对你造成的损失。比如,贝恩最近的研究发现,在要求软件供应商减免费用的首席信息官中,有81%获得了费用减免,而在获得费用减免的首席信息官中,有80%提供了某种回报,比如延长合同、扩大未来合同的涵盖范围或者提早续约。科尔米什表示:“客户是会愿意给你一定回报的,作为供应商,你需要表现出自己的同理心,但同样的,客户也能理解你是要做生意的。”

那么如果销售的是疫情期间供不应求的热销产品,你该怎么办呢?建议很简单:不要漫天要价。即便市场承受得了暴涨的价格,你也无法承受因此而带来的声誉打击。从华盛顿州到华盛顿特区,美国各州总检察长已对多家零售商发起诉讼或下令要求其停止不正当竞争,原因就是这些零售商以过高价格销售次氯酸钠、洗手液和相关产品。别让这种事发生在你身上。要眼光长远,而不是急功近利。

定价是一门被低估的技术。没有哪个高管的头衔里挂着“价格”二字。Simon Kucher&Partners咨询公司的研究发现,“只有12%的公司相信自己可以通过调整价格来提高利润”。大多数管理者都应该对定价事宜多加关注,疫情期间更是如此,只有充分发挥自己所能获得的每一项优势,才能熬过寒冬。

译者:梁宇

审校:夏林

Warren Buffett is an aggressive pricer. He mostly leaves the managers of Berkshire Hathaway’s portfolio companies alone, but when it comes to setting prices at companies including See’s Candies and the Buffalo News, he has often liked to be involved.

“The manager has just one business,” he once explained to Fortune. “His equation tells him that if he prices a little too low, it’s not that serious. But if he prices too high, he sees himself screwing up the only thing in his life.” Such excessive risk aversion leaves money on the table, Buffett figures, so he often pushes for higher prices. More often than not, he’s right.

Even in a historic downturn, Buffett’s instinct is worth keeping in mind. Many managers underestimate the power of pricing, and the unanimous advice from pricing experts in this troubled economy is to price with courage and creativity. In businesses where demand has plunged, slashing prices may be a terrible idea—and it may not be necessary at all.

In a few special cases—think hand sanitizer—the pandemic has turbocharged demand. Yet even here, managers need courage. It’s the courage to abstain from multiplying prices by five or 10 or 20, or whatever the market will bear. The winners will be those who think long-term, difficult as that is in a crisis.

For the vast majority of businesses—those facing strapped customers and shrunken demand—the No. 1 imperative is to avoid cutting prices if at all possible, what experts in the field call “maintaining price integrity.” In the B2B world, “you get a lot of pressure back from your customers to reduce price, which can manifest itself as hesitancy to move forward with the purchase,” says Ron Kermisch, a Bain consultant who leads the firm’s global pricing practice. “Companies too quickly move to price as the lever, without really understanding what’s driving the customer hesitancy.”

Creative managers can find many ways to allay customers’ concerns while maintaining price: for example, by extending payment terms, or by offering a shorter-term contract if the customer is worried about uncertainty, or by offering additional services such as help with integrating new software.

Even when financial concessions are unavoidable, maintaining the established price is crucial. In B2C commerce, several Four Seasons hotels are offering a third or fourth night free, the same strategy they followed in the last downturn; the customer gets more, but the room rate on the bill remains the same. Ritz-Carlton is offering some guests a daily “resort credit” of $100 to be applied toward meals, spa treatments, or other services, reducing the customer’s total cost without cutting the room rate.

But wait: Is anyone really fooled? If customers are being given more for a stated price, isn’t it obvious that the price has been cut? In fact, there is a difference, and it’s important. In pricing theory there’s something called the reference price, which is the lowest price customers ever paid for a product or service. They tend to remember it and compare all future prices against it. One-time add-ons to a product or service may be hard to remember or hard to value, but the reference price is clear. Reduce it, and customers will wonder why they should ever pay more.

That’s just the beginning of the damage that price cuts can do. They rarely pay for themselves. If you cut prices 20%, you have to sell 25% more units just to maintain revenue. In a severe downturn, how likely is that? And if a competitor matches your price cut, the pain will be much worse. The economics of every business are different, but McKinsey research has found that in a typical S&P 1500 company, a 5% price cut would have to spark a 19% volume increase just to pay for itself, and that hardly ever happens. Even if holding prices steady reduces sales and profits, price cuts may reduce them even more.

The long-term effects can be more harmful. Price cuts, even temporary ones, train customers to behave badly, always waiting for the next sale. Perhaps worse, they destroy brand equity.

The problem is especially acute in the luxury goods business, where a breathtaking price is a product feature and a key element of the brand identity. Conventional wisdom held that the industry had learned its lesson in the financial crisis of 2008–09, when some luxury items were offered for 70% off at Saks Fifth Avenue and other temples of upscale consumption. But it’s happening again. Valentino dresses are being discounted 50% at Valentino’s own website, for example, and 70% elsewhere; at Matchesfashion.com, a beaded Valentino gown has been reduced from $30,000 to a mere $9,000. Customers who paid full price may resolve never to make that mistake again. The same general phenomenon plays out in most product and service categories.

Having vowed to avoid price cuts no matter what, you may nonetheless find that in this downturn, which has been so traumatic for so many, you sometimes have no choice. Yet even then, you can mitigate the damage by asking for something in return. For example, recent Bain research finds that 81% of chief information officers who asked software vendors for payment relief received it—and 80% of those who received relief gave something back. Some agreed to extend their contract or to expand the scope of their contract in the future; others agreed to renew early. “Customers are willing to do that,” says Kermisch. “You need to show empathy as a provider, but they understand you’re running a business.”

And if you sell one of those white-hot pandemic products that are still in short supply? The advice is simple: Don’t gouge. Even if the market will bear it, your reputation might not. Attorneys general from Washington State to Washington D.C. have sued retailers or hit them with cease-and-desist orders for selling Clorox, hand sanitizer, and related products at exorbitant prices. Don’t let that happen to you. Forgo the quick profits and think long-term.

Pricing is an undervalued discipline. No one in the C-suite has “price” in their title. Research by the Simon Kucher & Partners consulting firm finds that “only 12% [of companies] believe they can boost profits by adjusting prices.” Pricing is worth far more attention than most managers give it—especially now, when you need every advantage you can get.

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