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时装业不再有投资价值,除非能解决这个问题

Misha Nonoo
2020-08-15

我们正在见证这个行业最终的崩溃。

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图片来源:COURTESY OF MISHA NONOO

分析师、专家和消费者多年来所预言的时装行业的丧钟终于敲响。尼曼集团(Neiman Marcus)、J. Crew、Centric Brands和Brooks Brothers只是开始。PVH和盖璞(Gap)今年都已经亏损超过10亿美元。路易威登(LVMH)和开云集团(Kering)最近公布的上个季度收入分别减少了38%和44%。这个行业内的关系错综复杂,它的发展建立在剥削创造性劳动的基础上,任人唯亲的现象无处不在,生产大量不受欢迎的商品然后把它们抛到了垃圾填埋场。我们正在见证这个行业最终的崩溃。

如果你熟悉许多时装公司微薄的利润和缓慢的改革速度,你就不会对媒体报道的那些巨额亏损感到意外。如果你来自知名的行业网络,还在争论修改时装日程表、Ins风的T台时装秀和稍微更受控制的降价,你并没有抓住问题的要点。

时装业的每一个问题几乎都能追溯到一个症结:库存。

对前期大批量生产的依赖,需要在消费者还没有表现出对某种款式的偏好之前,分配时间和宝贵的资源。我在按照传统时装日程表设计服装的时候,被要求大批量生产一种款式的服装,这时候距离回款还有180天的时间。还有人告诉我,售罄率达到75%可以视为“业绩出色”。我提前几个月购买的库存至少25%会滞销,这个偶然的假设让我突然醒悟。被浪费的资源变成了时装行业体系的一部分。想象一下,如果收入增加超过25%,这笔钱可以用来培养人才、进行可持续采购或者运营开发等。这些年来,时装行业对这些方面的忽视已经臭名昭著。这种投资的浪费导致整个行业出现了螺旋式下降。在漏洞百出的供应链里,领着低薪的团队不知不觉中开始生产表现不佳的衣服款式,没有任何回收再利用的方法。

如果某种款式滞销,公司处理库存的方案并不多。他们首先想到的是大减价和低价销售渠道。这些策略无处不在,已经培养了一代消费者,导致他们会低估购买的衣服的价值,使行业陷入降价大战,根本无法体现商品的实际成本。不受欢迎的商品如果通过大减价和低价渠道也卖不掉,它们就会被扔进垃圾填埋场或者烧毁[比如博柏利(Burberry)或H&M的做法]。每年有价值数十亿美元的服装被这样销毁,所造成的污染使时装业成为全球最不可持续的行业之一。仅纽约市每年就会填埋约10万吨或2亿磅服装。

库存的浪费不止这些。众所周知,时尚周期还涵盖了售后市场。不受欢迎的商品降价出售,不太可能产生效益,不会被经常穿,也无法被成功转售,甚至不会被作为捐赠品。这些商品对任何人都没有好处,但现有的体系却要求大量生产。

包括我的公司在内的许多公司都在尝试去库存经营模式。只有这样我们才能经受住当前的危机,不会遭遇竞争对手所面临的库存压力。这种观念并不新鲜。比如丰田(Toyota)等许多工业企业数十年来一直坚持准时生产模式,只是服装和配件行业对此视而不见。要实现去库存并没有哪一种方式是完全正确的。我们合作的工厂可以在10个工作日内按需生产任何商品。Betabrand的每一种款式都采取了众包的形式。Wylde是众多根据预订订单生产女装的品牌之一。我们的共同点是都希望从财务和环境方面进行更明智的资源分配。直到发生了新冠疫情和后续的经济危机,零售业巨头们才开始更深入地分析这些阻碍行业发展的落伍的模式。与此同时,多年来小公司一直在挑战行业标准,他们能够取得利润丰厚的惊人业绩,并不是依靠大量消耗资源和丧失人性。

我呼吁时装行业重新考虑应该进行哪些方面的改革,为自己挣得一线机会。包括我在内,有越来越多企业家已经在研究数字T台时装秀,完善“产品降价”和简化季节降价促销等。如果依旧依靠消耗资源生产大量库存,妨碍产品设计,继续污染地球,即使减少商品种类、调整季节性和优化网站,也不会使公司变得更健康。

有创意、有弹性和不受束缚的库存才是未来的方向。缺少了这些的服装企业没有任何投资价值。(财富中文网)

本文作者米莎·诺努是一位纽约市的时装设计师,她最知名的是以其姓名命名的女士成衣。诺努是美国时装设计师协会(Council of Fashion Designers of America)成员。

翻译:刘进龙

审校:汪皓

分析师、专家和消费者多年来所预言的时装行业的丧钟终于敲响。尼曼集团(Neiman Marcus)、J. Crew、Centric Brands和Brooks Brothers只是开始。PVH和盖璞(Gap)今年都已经亏损超过10亿美元。路易威登(LVMH)和开云集团(Kering)最近公布的上个季度收入分别减少了38%和44%。这个行业内的关系错综复杂,它的发展建立在剥削创造性劳动的基础上,任人唯亲的现象无处不在,生产大量不受欢迎的商品然后把它们抛到了垃圾填埋场。我们正在见证这个行业最终的崩溃。

如果你熟悉许多时装公司微薄的利润和缓慢的改革速度,你就不会对媒体报道的那些巨额亏损感到意外。如果你来自知名的行业网络,还在争论修改时装日程表、Ins风的T台时装秀和稍微更受控制的降价,你并没有抓住问题的要点。

时装业的每一个问题几乎都能追溯到一个症结:库存。

对前期大批量生产的依赖,需要在消费者还没有表现出对某种款式的偏好之前,分配时间和宝贵的资源。我在按照传统时装日程表设计服装的时候,被要求大批量生产一种款式的服装,这时候距离回款还有180天的时间。还有人告诉我,售罄率达到75%可以视为“业绩出色”。我提前几个月购买的库存至少25%会滞销,这个偶然的假设让我突然醒悟。被浪费的资源变成了时装行业体系的一部分。想象一下,如果收入增加超过25%,这笔钱可以用来培养人才、进行可持续采购或者运营开发等。这些年来,时装行业对这些方面的忽视已经臭名昭著。这种投资的浪费导致整个行业出现了螺旋式下降。在漏洞百出的供应链里,领着低薪的团队不知不觉中开始生产表现不佳的衣服款式,没有任何回收再利用的方法。

如果某种款式滞销,公司处理库存的方案并不多。他们首先想到的是大减价和低价销售渠道。这些策略无处不在,已经培养了一代消费者,导致他们会低估购买的衣服的价值,使行业陷入降价大战,根本无法体现商品的实际成本。不受欢迎的商品如果通过大减价和低价渠道也卖不掉,它们就会被扔进垃圾填埋场或者烧毁[比如博柏利(Burberry)或H&M的做法]。每年有价值数十亿美元的服装被这样销毁,所造成的污染使时装业成为全球最不可持续的行业之一。仅纽约市每年就会填埋约10万吨或2亿磅服装。

库存的浪费不止这些。众所周知,时尚周期还涵盖了售后市场。不受欢迎的商品降价出售,不太可能产生效益,不会被经常穿,也无法被成功转售,甚至不会被作为捐赠品。这些商品对任何人都没有好处,但现有的体系却要求大量生产。

包括我的公司在内的许多公司都在尝试去库存经营模式。只有这样我们才能经受住当前的危机,不会遭遇竞争对手所面临的库存压力。这种观念并不新鲜。比如丰田(Toyota)等许多工业企业数十年来一直坚持准时生产模式,只是服装和配件行业对此视而不见。要实现去库存并没有哪一种方式是完全正确的。我们合作的工厂可以在10个工作日内按需生产任何商品。Betabrand的每一种款式都采取了众包的形式。Wylde是众多根据预订订单生产女装的品牌之一。我们的共同点是都希望从财务和环境方面进行更明智的资源分配。直到发生了新冠疫情和后续的经济危机,零售业巨头们才开始更深入地分析这些阻碍行业发展的落伍的模式。与此同时,多年来小公司一直在挑战行业标准,他们能够取得利润丰厚的惊人业绩,并不是依靠大量消耗资源和丧失人性。

我呼吁时装行业重新考虑应该进行哪些方面的改革,为自己挣得一线机会。包括我在内,有越来越多企业家已经在研究数字T台时装秀,完善“产品降价”和简化季节降价促销等。如果依旧依靠消耗资源生产大量库存,妨碍产品设计,继续污染地球,即使减少商品种类、调整季节性和优化网站,也不会使公司变得更健康。

有创意、有弹性和不受束缚的库存才是未来的方向。缺少了这些的服装企业没有任何投资价值。(财富中文网)

本文作者米莎·诺努是一位纽约市的时装设计师,她最知名的是以其姓名命名的女士成衣。诺努是美国时装设计师协会(Council of Fashion Designers of America)成员。

翻译:刘进龙

审校:汪皓

The death knell for the fashion industry—heralded for years by analysts, pundits, and consumers alike—has finally arrived. Neiman Marcus, J. Crew, Centric Brands, and Brooks Brothers are only the beginning. PVH and Gap have both lost over $1 billion this year. LVMH and Kering recently reported revenue drops of 38% and 44%, respectively, last quarter. We are witnessing the final crumbling of a tightly knit industry built on exploiting creative labor, wholesale cronyism, producing vast amounts of undesirable goods and dumping said goods into landfills.

For those familiar with the razor-thin margins and glacial pace of change found in many fashion organizations, the monstrous deficits making headlines are no surprise. For those in prominent industry networks hotly debating a revised fashion calendar, Instagram runway shows, and vaguely more controlled markdowns, you are missing the point.

Nearly every flaw in the fashion system can be traced back to a single issue: inventory.

The reliance on upfront, bulk production requires time and valuable resources to be allocated before consumers are able to indicate a preference for a style. When I produced collections on the traditional fashion calendar, I was asked to mass-produce a style 180 days before I could expect payment. I was also told a 75% sell-through rate was considered “great performance.” This casual assumption—that at least 25% of the inventory I bought months beforehand would go unsold—was a rude awakening. Wasted resources are built into the system. Imagine if upwards of 25% more revenue could be allocated to nurturing talent, sustainable sourcing, or operational development—all of which the fashion industry has become notorious for neglecting in recent years. This wastage of investment has enforced a downward spiral across the industry, where under-compensated teams in flawed supply chains unknowingly commit to producing underperforming styles without any way to recover.

When a style does not sell, there are few options to get rid of the inventory. Markdowns and off-price channels are the first ports of call. The ubiquity of these strategies has trained a generation of consumers to underestimate the value of the clothes they buy and resulted in a race to rock-bottom pricing that is unreflective of the actual cost of goods. When markdowns and off-price channels fail to sell the unwanted product, it is thrown into landfills or burned (see Burberry and H&M). Billions of dollars in clothing is discarded in this way annually, contributing levels of pollution that make the fashion industry one of the least sustainable in the world. New York City alone landfills around 100,000 tons, or 200 million pounds, of clothing every year.

The wastefulness of inventory does not stop here. As we know, the fashion cycle continues in the after-sale market. Undesirable product that is sold at a markdown is far less likely to have a productive life, is less likely to be worn frequently, to be successfully resold, or to be wanted even as a donation. These are products that serve no one well, and the existing system requires that they be made by the thousands.

A handful of businesses, including my own, have pioneered an inventory-less fashion model. It is down to this that we are weathering the current crisis without the inventory strains our competitors face. This concept is not new. Many industrial businesses, such as Toyota, have produced just-in-time for decades, though it has generally eluded apparel and accessories. There is not one right way to do this. We have partner factories that produce every item on demand within 10 business days. Betabrand vets each style by crowdsourcing. The Wylde is one of many brands producing women’s wear by preorder. What we have in common is a commitment to allocate our resources wisely, both financially and environmentally. It took nothing short of a pandemic and subsequent economic crisis for the retail giants to even take a closer look at these archaic models stifling the industry. Meanwhile, small businesses have been challenging the norm head-on for years, with profitable, impressive results not brought on by resource gluttony and dehumanizing practices.

I urge the industry to reconsider its perspective on which changes should be made in order to give fashion a fighting chance. I am among a growing number of entrepreneurs who have already tackled the digital runway show, perfected the “product drop,” and streamlined seasonal markdowns. The arguments for fewer collections, adjusted seasonality, and better websites will not result in healthier businesses if bulk inventory production still ties up resources, hamstrings design, and pollutes our planet.

The future is creative, resilient, and liberated of inventory. Anything less is no longer worth the investment.

Misha Nonoo is a fashion designer based in New York City, best known for her eponymous line of women’s ready-to-wear clothing. Nonoo is also a member of the Council of Fashion Designers of America (CFDA).

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