本月,美国高校十大联盟(Big Ten)和太平洋十二校联盟(Pac-12)都宣布由于新冠疫情,将推迟所有秋季橄榄球比赛。美国的高校橄榄球球迷,尤其是中西部和西海岸的球迷们,仍陷在这些消息带来的震惊中无法自拔。
十大联盟和太平洋十二校联盟属于美国高校体育赛事中的“五大联盟”,它们推迟秋季比赛意味着俄亥俄州立大学、密歇根大学、南加州大学和俄勒冈大学等高校的球迷们,最早要等到明年春天,才能看到最喜爱的球队重回赛场。
虽然五大联盟中的另外三个—— 东南联盟(SEC)、大西洋海岸联盟(ACC)和大十二联盟(Big 12)目前计划秋季赛季如期开赛,但这项赛事中的一些重量级院校缺席,将产生巨大的经济影响。如今围绕高校橄榄球比赛已经诞生另一个达数十亿美元的行业。
但有一批利益相关者应该能够轻松应对这种状况,它们就是电视广播网,尽管它们可以播出的比赛将大幅减少。迪士尼(Disney)、福克斯(Fox)和ViacomCBS等投资了数十亿美元购买美国顶级高校橄榄球比赛的转播权,但美国银行(Bank of America)的分析师认为,对于这些传媒业巨头及其股东们来说,比赛减少应该“相对容易接受”。
一个原因是,美国国家橄榄球联盟(NFL)计划在下个月开始新赛季的比赛,这三家公司都有该联盟的转播权。美国银行的分析师认为,高校橄榄球比赛停赛在周六“留下的节目空缺,有望被NFL填补”,但在此之前可能有许多监管问题需要解决。
另外,假设十大联盟和太平洋十二校联盟能在春季恢复比赛,推迟一部分高校橄榄球比赛的时间也有潜在的好处。美国银行的分析师写道:“如果一部分比赛在秋季进行,另一部分则在春季开赛,由于比赛场次减少,可以提高每一场比赛的收视率,同时在春季为广告商创造出更有吸引力的广告时段。”
秋季比赛减少意味着“广告收入减少和会员退费”,这肯定会导致广播公司的收入“大幅”减少,但它们也可以节省与高校橄榄球比赛转播有关的大笔支出。美国银行的报告称,如果比赛没有如期举行,广播公司“可能不会向联盟支付动辄每年几亿美元的[转播]权费”,或者会得到退费或补偿,可能是以“因价值损失延长合同”的形式。
在大型传媒公司中,迪士尼在高校橄榄球比赛中所占的比例最大。迪士尼通过ESPN拥有赛季末的大学橄榄球季后赛(College Football Playoff)的转播权,并且在东南联盟电视网(SEC Network)和大西洋海岸联盟电视网(ACC Network)持有多数股份,还拥有多数联盟的比赛转播权。
与此同时,ViacomCBS每年支付约6,000万美元,成为东南联盟的主要转播方。美国银行的分析师认为,如果东南联盟决定取消本赛季的比赛,该公司今年的息税折旧摊销前利润将减少约5,000万美元,但这笔损失可以“通过替代节目部分抵销”。
福克斯目前每年支付约5.5亿美元,获得大十二联盟、太平洋十二校联盟和十大联盟的比赛转播权(并在十大联盟电视网(Big Ten Network)拥有多数股份)。有趣的是,美国银行指出,如果本赛季的高校橄榄球比赛全部取消,广播公司的“盈利能力或许会有所改善”,因为“尽管支出减少了,但电视会员收入仍在增加。”
Simpler Trading公司的股票业务总监TG•沃特金斯表示,从股市的角度,这三家广播公司的规模及其业务范围意味着,任何高校橄榄球比赛取消,都不会对公司盈亏产生显著的影响。
沃特金斯告诉《财富》杂志:“我认为这些上市公司已经有足够大的规模,因此依旧会有很好的表现。”他提到对迪士尼上一财年的收入贡献最大的是主题公园部门(37.7%)。“高校橄榄球比赛当然在这些公司的业务中有重要的地位,但它们都很好地实现了业务多元化,因此它们可以随时调整,转向可以提供的内容。”
或许目前的情况不会有太大问题,但高校橄榄球粉丝们却要继续等待,不知道今年秋天、明年春天或者未来是否还能观看到他们最爱的球队的比赛。(财富中文网)
翻译:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
本月,美国高校十大联盟(Big Ten)和太平洋十二校联盟(Pac-12)都宣布由于新冠疫情,将推迟所有秋季橄榄球比赛。美国的高校橄榄球球迷,尤其是中西部和西海岸的球迷们,仍陷在这些消息带来的震惊中无法自拔。
十大联盟和太平洋十二校联盟属于美国高校体育赛事中的“五大联盟”,它们推迟秋季比赛意味着俄亥俄州立大学、密歇根大学、南加州大学和俄勒冈大学等高校的球迷们,最早要等到明年春天,才能看到最喜爱的球队重回赛场。
虽然五大联盟中的另外三个—— 东南联盟(SEC)、大西洋海岸联盟(ACC)和大十二联盟(Big 12)目前计划秋季赛季如期开赛,但这项赛事中的一些重量级院校缺席,将产生巨大的经济影响。如今围绕高校橄榄球比赛已经诞生另一个达数十亿美元的行业。
但有一批利益相关者应该能够轻松应对这种状况,它们就是电视广播网,尽管它们可以播出的比赛将大幅减少。迪士尼(Disney)、福克斯(Fox)和ViacomCBS等投资了数十亿美元购买美国顶级高校橄榄球比赛的转播权,但美国银行(Bank of America)的分析师认为,对于这些传媒业巨头及其股东们来说,比赛减少应该“相对容易接受”。
一个原因是,美国国家橄榄球联盟(NFL)计划在下个月开始新赛季的比赛,这三家公司都有该联盟的转播权。美国银行的分析师认为,高校橄榄球比赛停赛在周六“留下的节目空缺,有望被NFL填补”,但在此之前可能有许多监管问题需要解决。
另外,假设十大联盟和太平洋十二校联盟能在春季恢复比赛,推迟一部分高校橄榄球比赛的时间也有潜在的好处。美国银行的分析师写道:“如果一部分比赛在秋季进行,另一部分则在春季开赛,由于比赛场次减少,可以提高每一场比赛的收视率,同时在春季为广告商创造出更有吸引力的广告时段。”
秋季比赛减少意味着“广告收入减少和会员退费”,这肯定会导致广播公司的收入“大幅”减少,但它们也可以节省与高校橄榄球比赛转播有关的大笔支出。美国银行的报告称,如果比赛没有如期举行,广播公司“可能不会向联盟支付动辄每年几亿美元的[转播]权费”,或者会得到退费或补偿,可能是以“因价值损失延长合同”的形式。
在大型传媒公司中,迪士尼在高校橄榄球比赛中所占的比例最大。迪士尼通过ESPN拥有赛季末的大学橄榄球季后赛(College Football Playoff)的转播权,并且在东南联盟电视网(SEC Network)和大西洋海岸联盟电视网(ACC Network)持有多数股份,还拥有多数联盟的比赛转播权。
与此同时,ViacomCBS每年支付约6,000万美元,成为东南联盟的主要转播方。美国银行的分析师认为,如果东南联盟决定取消本赛季的比赛,该公司今年的息税折旧摊销前利润将减少约5,000万美元,但这笔损失可以“通过替代节目部分抵销”。
福克斯目前每年支付约5.5亿美元,获得大十二联盟、太平洋十二校联盟和十大联盟的比赛转播权(并在十大联盟电视网(Big Ten Network)拥有多数股份)。有趣的是,美国银行指出,如果本赛季的高校橄榄球比赛全部取消,广播公司的“盈利能力或许会有所改善”,因为“尽管支出减少了,但电视会员收入仍在增加。”
Simpler Trading公司的股票业务总监TG•沃特金斯表示,从股市的角度,这三家广播公司的规模及其业务范围意味着,任何高校橄榄球比赛取消,都不会对公司盈亏产生显著的影响。
沃特金斯告诉《财富》杂志:“我认为这些上市公司已经有足够大的规模,因此依旧会有很好的表现。”他提到对迪士尼上一财年的收入贡献最大的是主题公园部门(37.7%)。“高校橄榄球比赛当然在这些公司的业务中有重要的地位,但它们都很好地实现了业务多元化,因此它们可以随时调整,转向可以提供的内容。”
或许目前的情况不会有太大问题,但高校橄榄球粉丝们却要继续等待,不知道今年秋天、明年春天或者未来是否还能观看到他们最爱的球队的比赛。(财富中文网)
翻译:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
College football fans across the country—especially those in the Midwest and on the West Coast—are still reeling from this week’s announcement that the Big Ten and the Pac-12 are postponing their fall football seasons due to the coronavirus pandemic.
As two of the major “Power 5” collegiate athletic conferences, the moves mean that fans of universities including Ohio State, Michigan, USC, and Oregon will have to wait until spring at earliest before seeing their favorite teams back on the field.
While the three other Power 5 conferences—the SEC, ACC, and Big 12—currently plan to proceed with their fall seasons, the absence of some of the sport’s biggest institutions will have major economic consequences for the multibillion-dollar industry that surrounds college football.
But one group of stakeholders that should manage just fine, despite having considerably fewer games to show, are the broadcast networks. While the likes of Disney, Fox, and ViacomCBS have invested billions of dollars for the rights to air the nation’s premier college football contests, analysts at Bank of America said this week that a slimmer slate of games should be “relatively digestible” for those media giants and their shareholders.
One reason is the exposure that all three have to the NFL, which plans to begin its season as intended next month. BoA analysts cite the “potential for the NFL to fill in some of the programming gaps” on college football Saturdays—though there may be some regulatory hurdles to overcome before that’s possible.
There are also potential benefits to saving some college football for the spring, assuming the Big Ten and Pac-12 are able to resume their seasons then. “If some games are played in the fall while others are played in the spring, ratings could improve on a per-game basis due to scarcity, while also creating a more attractive spring slate for advertisers,” BoA analysts wrote.
And while fewer games in the fall will lead to a “meaningful” decline in revenues for broadcasters, due to “lower advertising dollars and certain affiliate rebates,” the networks will also likely be spared significant expenses associated with their college football slates. They would be “unlikely to pay [broadcast] rights fees” to the conferences—which often amount to hundreds of millions of dollars annually—or would receive rebates or compensation, perhaps in the form of “contract extensions for lost value” if games do not take place, according to BoA.
Of the major media conglomerates, Disney has the most exposure to college football. Through ESPN, it holds the rights to the end-of-season College Football Playoff, majority ownership of both the SEC Network and the ACC Network, and the rights to games across all of the major conferences.
ViacomCBS, meanwhile, currently pays around $60 million annually to be the SEC’s flagship broadcaster. Should the SEC reverse course and decide to cancel its season, the company will face a negative EBITDA impact of around $50 million this year, according to BoA analysts—though that could be “partially offset by replacement programming.”
Fox currently pays roughly $550 million per year for the right to air games across the Big 12, Pac-12, and Big Ten (including majority ownership of the latter’s Big Ten Network). Interestingly, BoA notes that the broadcaster “would likely see profitability improve” if all of its college football games were canceled, as TV affiliate revenues “would still accrue despite lower expenses.”
From a stock market perspective, the size and scope of all three broadcasting companies means it’s unlikely that any college football cancellations would hurt their bottom lines considerably, according to TG Watkins, director of stocks at Simpler Trading.
“I think these publicly traded companies are probably big enough that they’ll still do fairly well,” Watkins tells Fortune, citing Disney—which derived the largest chunk of its revenues in its last fiscal year from its Parks division (37.7%)—as an example. “Obviously it’s a big deal, but they’re well-diversified enough that they can pivot and look to provide content wherever they can."
But while may be alright regardless of what happens, college football fans are left to wait and see whether they’ll be able to watch their favorite teams in action—be that this fall, next spring, or at all.