如果现在查看股票市场中表现最好的一些股票,似乎成长型投资是胜利的一方。
可以肯定的是,尽管价值股破历史记录地跑赢了成长型股票,但近几个月和几年来,飞涨且价格昂贵的科技股一直在推动市场上涨。
尽管许多人预计高价科技股将继续走高,但美国银行分析师却偏爱某些价值股,股票和定量策略分析师周二在报告中写道。实际上,美国银行分析师在7月份的一份报告中写道,在过去14次衰退中:“价值股均引领了复苏”。
“在接下来的几年中,随着经济的复苏,市场条件比以往任何时候都更有利于价值股跑赢成长型股票,”加利福尼亚大学洛杉矶分校经济学博士及Research Affiliates欧洲研究主管维塔利•卡列斯尼克最近告知《财富》杂志。Research Affiliates为价值1,480亿美元的共同基金和交易型开放式指数基金(ETF)设计投资策略。实际上,他向《财富》杂志指出:“本质上,成长型股票处于历史上最高价水平,而价值股却是历史上最低价水平”,且尽管在诸如能源行业以及金融业等最受压抑的行业中将出现破产,“但总体而言,它们是关键的经济领域,其销售额和利润将反弹。”
与此同时,瑞银全球财富管理公司(UBS Global Wealth Management)首席投资官马克·海夫勒在周一的报告中写道,由于最近的大部分收益来自美国六大科技公司,因此...我们建议重新平衡周期性和价值型股票,到目前为止,这些股票的收益已落后。”
“并非所有价值都生而平等”
但是,美国银行分析师周二写道,“并非所有价值都生而平等”,而且由于错误的原因,“某些行业中的一些价值股价格低廉:相对价格下跌速度大于收益恶化速度。”
那么,什么是好的价值股?
分析师写道,美国银行分析师更喜欢“传统周期性行业,例如耐用消费品、汽车、金属与采矿、建筑材料和半导体行业,这些都被视作具有好的价值股投资机会,并受到经改善的基本面和价格动能的支持。”但价值投资者不应仅追求纯粹的价值,美国银行分析师还建议“除了价值以外还要注意质量,这样考虑在历史上曾将收益提高了整整一个百分点以上。”
列举美国银行感兴趣的几家公司,动视暴雪(Activision Blizzard)、英伟达(Nvidia)、思科(Cisco)、共和服务(Republic Services)、克罗格(Kroger)、卡夫·亨氏(Kraft Heinz)、Evergy、德康医疗(DexCom)、摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)、Alliant Energy Corp、Extra Space Storage、美国前进保险公司(Progressive)甚至是微软(Microsoft)——美国银行从标普500指数中挑选出这些股票的原因是,与10年历史值相比,这些股票按照远期(接下来的12个月)市盈率得出的估值低于中位数,且3个月修订趋势以及3个月价格动能趋势高于中位数。
但是投资者不应认为所有价值股都值得投资。美国银行表示,应避免像莫霍克工业集团(Mohawk Industries)、美国科凯国际集团(KeyCorp)和福斯公司(Flowserve Corporation)那样,跳入所谓的“价值陷阱”。他们还建议投资者转向房地产信托投资基金(REIT)、电信和多元公用事业。
毕竟,不能仅仅因为它便宜就认定它是便宜货。(财富中文网)
译者:Biz
如果现在查看股票市场中表现最好的一些股票,似乎成长型投资是胜利的一方。
可以肯定的是,尽管价值股破历史记录地跑赢了成长型股票,但近几个月和几年来,飞涨且价格昂贵的科技股一直在推动市场上涨。
尽管许多人预计高价科技股将继续走高,但美国银行分析师却偏爱某些价值股,股票和定量策略分析师周二在报告中写道。实际上,美国银行分析师在7月份的一份报告中写道,在过去14次衰退中:“价值股均引领了复苏”。
“在接下来的几年中,随着经济的复苏,市场条件比以往任何时候都更有利于价值股跑赢成长型股票,”加利福尼亚大学洛杉矶分校经济学博士及Research Affiliates欧洲研究主管维塔利•卡列斯尼克最近告知《财富》杂志。Research Affiliates为价值1,480亿美元的共同基金和交易型开放式指数基金(ETF)设计投资策略。实际上,他向《财富》杂志指出:“本质上,成长型股票处于历史上最高价水平,而价值股却是历史上最低价水平”,且尽管在诸如能源行业以及金融业等最受压抑的行业中将出现破产,“但总体而言,它们是关键的经济领域,其销售额和利润将反弹。”
与此同时,瑞银全球财富管理公司(UBS Global Wealth Management)首席投资官马克·海夫勒在周一的报告中写道,由于最近的大部分收益来自美国六大科技公司,因此...我们建议重新平衡周期性和价值型股票,到目前为止,这些股票的收益已落后。”
“并非所有价值都生而平等”
但是,美国银行分析师周二写道,“并非所有价值都生而平等”,而且由于错误的原因,“某些行业中的一些价值股价格低廉:相对价格下跌速度大于收益恶化速度。”
那么,什么是好的价值股?
分析师写道,美国银行分析师更喜欢“传统周期性行业,例如耐用消费品、汽车、金属与采矿、建筑材料和半导体行业,这些都被视作具有好的价值股投资机会,并受到经改善的基本面和价格动能的支持。”但价值投资者不应仅追求纯粹的价值,美国银行分析师还建议“除了价值以外还要注意质量,这样考虑在历史上曾将收益提高了整整一个百分点以上。”
列举美国银行感兴趣的几家公司,动视暴雪(Activision Blizzard)、英伟达(Nvidia)、思科(Cisco)、共和服务(Republic Services)、克罗格(Kroger)、卡夫·亨氏(Kraft Heinz)、Evergy、德康医疗(DexCom)、摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)、Alliant Energy Corp、Extra Space Storage、美国前进保险公司(Progressive)甚至是微软(Microsoft)——美国银行从标普500指数中挑选出这些股票的原因是,与10年历史值相比,这些股票按照远期(接下来的12个月)市盈率得出的估值低于中位数,且3个月修订趋势以及3个月价格动能趋势高于中位数。
但是投资者不应认为所有价值股都值得投资。美国银行表示,应避免像莫霍克工业集团(Mohawk Industries)、美国科凯国际集团(KeyCorp)和福斯公司(Flowserve Corporation)那样,跳入所谓的“价值陷阱”。他们还建议投资者转向房地产信托投资基金(REIT)、电信和多元公用事业。
毕竟,不能仅仅因为它便宜就认定它是便宜货。(财富中文网)
译者:Biz
If you take a look at some of the top performers in the stock market right now, it appears one thing is winning: growth.
To be sure, while value has historically outperformed growth, the run of high-flying and expensive tech stocks have been what's pushed the market higher in recent months and years.
And while many are predicting that pricey tech stocks will continue their trek higher, Bank of America analysts are liking certain value stocks, equity and quantitative strategy analysts wrote in a note Tuesday. Indeed, in 14 of the last 14 recessions, "value stocks led in the recovery," BofA analysts wrote in a July note.
"The conditions have never been more right for value to far outperform growth as the economy recovers over the next few years," Vitali Kalesnik, a Ph.D. economist from the University of California, Los Angeles, and director of research for Europe at Research Affiliates, a firm that designs investment strategies for $148 billion in mutual funds and ETFs, recently told Fortune. Indeed, he noted to Fortune that, "Essentially, growth is at one of its most expensive levels in history while value is at one of its cheapest levels in history," and while there will be bankruptcies in some of the most downtrodden industries like energy and financials, "overall, they're key sectors of the economy, and their sales and profits will bounce back."
Meanwhile, UBS Global Wealth Management’s chief investment officer Mark Haefele wrote in a note Monday that since a "large share of recent gains have come from the top six US technology firms, ... we recommend rebalancing both into cyclical and into value stocks, which have so far lagged in the rally," he wrote.
'Not all value is created equal'
But "not all value is created equal," analysts at BofA wrote Tuesday, and there are some value stocks in "industries that are inexpensive for the wrong reasons: relative prices are falling faster than earnings deteriorating."
So, what is a good value?
BofA analysts prefer "traditional cyclical industries like household durables, autos, metals & mining, construction materials, and semiconductors [which] screen as good value opportunities, backed by improving fundamentals as well as price momentum," the analysts wrote. But it's not just pure value investors should look for—analysts at BofA also recommend adding "a quality overlay to value which has historically enhanced returns by over a full percentage point."
A few names out of a bunch on BofA's radar? Activision Blizzard, Nvidia, Cisco, Republic Services, Kroger, Kraft Heinz, Evergy, DexCom, Morgan Stanley, Alliant Energy Corp, Extra Space Storage, Progressive, and even Microsoft—all stocks in the S&P 500 BofA screened for their below-median valuation on forward (next 12 months) price-to-earnings ratios versus 10-year history, above-median 3 month revision trends, and above-median 3 month price momentum trends.
But investors shouldn't assume all value is, well, valuable. BofA says steer clear of so-called "value traps" like Mohawk Industries, KeyCorp, and Flowserve Corporation. They also advise passing on REITs, telecom, and multi-utilities.
After all, just because it's cheap doesn't mean it's a bargain.