摩根大通近期预测称,特朗普获得连任的可能性正在不断上升,投资者应该为此做好准备。
小摩策略师马克•克兰诺维奇表示,考虑到民调中可能存在的偏见以及民众对于抗议游行活动的态度转变,拜登的领先优势已经逐渐被特朗普追平。
根据以往的研究经验,如果民众不再认为抗议游行是和平且合理的,而是转而将其明确定义为‘暴力活动’的话,民主党的支持率就会下降5到10个百分点。反之,如果民众给不出严格的界定,那么民调支持率则会自然而然地更偏向拜登5到6个百分点。克兰诺维奇补充道。
“当然,未来的60天依然一切皆有可能,虽然大部分投资者都在为拜登夺魁作准备,但我们目前认为,特朗普的势头更胜,而且还会继续下去。” 克兰诺维奇写道,“无论是疫情的防治情况,还是ESG政策治理方面,各种因素、各个部门都会对选举结果产生重大影响。”
拜登在民调中不断缩小的优势由让人回想起2016年大选时的情景,当时希拉里在普选中获得了上百万张选票的优势,民调数据也一路领先,但最终各州选举人票选出的新总统却是特朗普。
克兰诺维奇强调,疫情的发展是未来几周推动选举结果的重要因素,随着大选临近,疫情似乎也在渐渐消退。
同样关键的还有各党派对于抗议游行的态度所在,尤其是拜登所在的民主党。如果过于宽容忍让,他就会失去普通选民的支持,如果过于激进强硬,他也会得罪进步人士。如此一来,民主党可谓陷入了两难境地。(财富中文网)
编译:陈怡轩
摩根大通近期预测称,特朗普获得连任的可能性正在不断上升,投资者应该为此做好准备。
小摩策略师马克•克兰诺维奇表示,考虑到民调中可能存在的偏见以及民众对于抗议游行活动的态度转变,拜登的领先优势已经逐渐被特朗普追平。
根据以往的研究经验,如果民众不再认为抗议游行是和平且合理的,而是转而将其明确定义为‘暴力活动’的话,民主党的支持率就会下降5到10个百分点。反之,如果民众给不出严格的界定,那么民调支持率则会自然而然地更偏向拜登5到6个百分点。克兰诺维奇补充道。
“当然,未来的60天依然一切皆有可能,虽然大部分投资者都在为拜登夺魁作准备,但我们目前认为,特朗普的势头更胜,而且还会继续下去。” 克兰诺维奇写道,“无论是疫情的防治情况,还是ESG政策治理方面,各种因素、各个部门都会对选举结果产生重大影响。”
拜登在民调中不断缩小的优势由让人回想起2016年大选时的情景,当时希拉里在普选中获得了上百万张选票的优势,民调数据也一路领先,但最终各州选举人票选出的新总统却是特朗普。
克兰诺维奇强调,疫情的发展是未来几周推动选举结果的重要因素,随着大选临近,疫情似乎也在渐渐消退。
同样关键的还有各党派对于抗议游行的态度所在,尤其是拜登所在的民主党。如果过于宽容忍让,他就会失去普通选民的支持,如果过于激进强硬,他也会得罪进步人士。如此一来,民主党可谓陷入了两难境地。(财富中文网)
编译:陈怡轩
Investors should position for the rising odds of President Donald Trump winning re-election, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.
Betting odds that earlier had Trump well behind challenger Joe Biden are now nearly even -- largely due to the impact on public opinion of violence around protests, as well as potential bias in polls, said strategist Marko Kolanovic.
Based on past research, there could be a shift of five to 10 points in polls from Democrats to Republicans if the perception of protests turns from peaceful to violent, he said. People giving inaccurate answers could artificially skew polls in favor of Biden by 5%-6%, he added.
“Certainly a lot can happen in the next ~60 days to change the odds, but we currently believe that momentum in favor of Trump will continue, while most investors are still positioned for a Biden win,” Kolanovic wrote Monday. “Implications could be significant for the performance of factors, sectors, COVID-19 winners/losers, as well as ESG.”
Biden’s narrowing advantage in polls evokes memories of the 2016 election, when such tallies seemed to favor Hillary Clinton strongly. While Clinton won the popular vote by several million, the Electoral College, a state-by-state count that determines the election outcome, ended decisively in Trump’s favor.
Kolanovic said important drivers of the election in coming weeks include developments in the COVID-19 pandemic, which looks like it might subside as the vote nears.
Also key are the outcome of any debates, and the Democrats’ stance on protests. The latter risks turning off voters generally if seen as too permissive, but also could alienate progressives if it’s not seen as sympathetic enough, according to the note.