上周,各大指数都以牛市为主。
标普500指数连续收盘上涨,上周五收于3,508点,比上周一的收盘点位上涨超过2%,按照标普道琼斯指数公司(S&P Dow Jones Indices)产品管理高级指数分析师霍华德•西尔弗布拉特等专家的说法,标普500指数经历了“完美的一周”。
标普500指数8月18日收盘创下了疫情之前的最高历史记录,之后开始持续上涨。事实上,LPL Financial公司上周五发布的一篇研究报告显示,当日,标普500指数连续六天创历史新高,“是自2018年1月连续六天上涨以来持续时间最长的一波连续上涨行情。”LPL的报告称,事实上,因为8月只剩下最后一个交易日,所以这个8月份可能是“自1986年以来最好的8月。”
西尔弗布拉特告诉《财富》杂志,他和许多人一样对此感到“惊讶”。
标普500指数连续第5个交易日再创新高(年初至今第19次创下收盘新高,自2016年11月总统大选以来第143次创下收盘新高),上一次还是在2018年初(1月2日—9日),当时标普500指数连续6天收盘屡创新高;今天,标普500指数首次突破3500点大关(3501.38点),而且收盘时继续上涨(3584.55点)pic. twitter. com/GCvE6hrBOb
—— 霍华德•西尔弗布拉特(@hsilverb)2020年8月27日
8月在许多方面都打破了记录。LPL公司的瑞安•德特里克指出:“本月之初……前六天就开始上涨。”他告诉《财富》杂志,现在,“同一个月内已经有两次连续六天上涨,这在历史上任何一个8月份都没有出现过。”
投资者背后有美联储的支持,这不是什么秘密。上周四,美联储主席杰罗姆•鲍威尔宣布,美联储设定的长期平均目标通胀率为2%,并承诺延长较低利率的持续时间,推动了股市上涨。
上周五,瑞银全球资产管理(UBS Global Wealth Management)首席投资官马克•海菲勒在一篇报告中写道:“超低利率使投资者有理由为每一美元股票收益支付更高的成本,因此推高了股票的估值。”不明白吗?股市或许会继续上涨,甚至可能达到更高的价格水平。
危险信号已经显现
嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)交易与衍生品业务副总裁兰迪•弗雷德里克告诉《财富》杂志,他认为当前的市场可以用一个词来形容:“令人震惊”。
但这种市场每天都屡创新高的大幅度上涨,已经开始显露疲态。
弗雷德里克表示,截至上周五,芝加哥期权交易所(CBOE)的股票看跌/看涨比率(跟踪期权数量,重点关注短期趋势)为38,“这是闻所未闻的。”事实上,“当股市处在历史最高点而且每天都屡创新高时,每发生100笔看涨期权交易,有38笔看跌交易,这种情况是前所未见的。”(他说该比率凡是低于60,都代表了“令人难以置信的看涨情绪”。)
弗雷德里克认为,市场持续上涨,而投资者继续看涨,其结果就是出现“非理性繁荣”。对投资者而言,这应该是市场回调的信号:弗雷德里克认为市场“早就应该”回调2%至4%。
与此同时,弗雷德里克指出,虽然VIX指数(跟踪市场波动性)上周五下降,但过去几天,该指数却随着市场波动有所上涨,在正常情况下这种事情不会发生,“除非VIX指数预示着市场将逆转下行。”
他说,尽管今年的市场难以预测,但“牛市行情及其持续时间让我非常震惊,所以我一直在向投资者发出警告。我并不是要让大家恐慌或者抛售,而是想告诉大家:‘看,现在已经有很多警告信号,务必谨慎、谨慎再谨慎。’”(财富中文网)
翻译:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
上周,各大指数都以牛市为主。
标普500指数连续收盘上涨,上周五收于3,508点,比上周一的收盘点位上涨超过2%,按照标普道琼斯指数公司(S&P Dow Jones Indices)产品管理高级指数分析师霍华德•西尔弗布拉特等专家的说法,标普500指数经历了“完美的一周”。
标普500指数8月18日收盘创下了疫情之前的最高历史记录,之后开始持续上涨。事实上,LPL Financial公司上周五发布的一篇研究报告显示,当日,标普500指数连续六天创历史新高,“是自2018年1月连续六天上涨以来持续时间最长的一波连续上涨行情。”LPL的报告称,事实上,因为8月只剩下最后一个交易日,所以这个8月份可能是“自1986年以来最好的8月。”
西尔弗布拉特告诉《财富》杂志,他和许多人一样对此感到“惊讶”。
标普500指数连续第5个交易日再创新高(年初至今第19次创下收盘新高,自2016年11月总统大选以来第143次创下收盘新高),上一次还是在2018年初(1月2日—9日),当时标普500指数连续6天收盘屡创新高;今天,标普500指数首次突破3500点大关(3501.38点),而且收盘时继续上涨(3584.55点)pic. twitter. com/GCvE6hrBOb
—— 霍华德•西尔弗布拉特(@hsilverb)2020年8月27日
8月在许多方面都打破了记录。LPL公司的瑞安•德特里克指出:“本月之初……前六天就开始上涨。”他告诉《财富》杂志,现在,“同一个月内已经有两次连续六天上涨,这在历史上任何一个8月份都没有出现过。”
投资者背后有美联储的支持,这不是什么秘密。上周四,美联储主席杰罗姆•鲍威尔宣布,美联储设定的长期平均目标通胀率为2%,并承诺延长较低利率的持续时间,推动了股市上涨。
上周五,瑞银全球资产管理(UBS Global Wealth Management)首席投资官马克•海菲勒在一篇报告中写道:“超低利率使投资者有理由为每一美元股票收益支付更高的成本,因此推高了股票的估值。”不明白吗?股市或许会继续上涨,甚至可能达到更高的价格水平。
危险信号已经显现
嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)交易与衍生品业务副总裁兰迪•弗雷德里克告诉《财富》杂志,他认为当前的市场可以用一个词来形容:“令人震惊”。
但这种市场每天都屡创新高的大幅度上涨,已经开始显露疲态。
弗雷德里克表示,截至上周五,芝加哥期权交易所(CBOE)的股票看跌/看涨比率(跟踪期权数量,重点关注短期趋势)为38,“这是闻所未闻的。”事实上,“当股市处在历史最高点而且每天都屡创新高时,每发生100笔看涨期权交易,有38笔看跌交易,这种情况是前所未见的。”(他说该比率凡是低于60,都代表了“令人难以置信的看涨情绪”。)
弗雷德里克认为,市场持续上涨,而投资者继续看涨,其结果就是出现“非理性繁荣”。对投资者而言,这应该是市场回调的信号:弗雷德里克认为市场“早就应该”回调2%至4%。
与此同时,弗雷德里克指出,虽然VIX指数(跟踪市场波动性)上周五下降,但过去几天,该指数却随着市场波动有所上涨,在正常情况下这种事情不会发生,“除非VIX指数预示着市场将逆转下行。”
他说,尽管今年的市场难以预测,但“牛市行情及其持续时间让我非常震惊,所以我一直在向投资者发出警告。我并不是要让大家恐慌或者抛售,而是想告诉大家:‘看,现在已经有很多警告信号,务必谨慎、谨慎再谨慎。’”(财富中文网)
翻译:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
The bulls certainly prevailed this week.
The S&P 500 closed up higher every day this week, finally landing at 3,508 on Friday, up over 2% from Monday's close—notching what experts like Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst of product management at S&P Dow Jones Indices, call a "perfect week."
Since the index finally closed above its pre-pandemic high on Aug. 18, it has kept adding new gains. In fact, the S&P 500 booked a new all-time high on Friday for the sixth day in a row—"the longest such streak since six in a row in January 2018," according to an LPL Financial research note Friday. Indeed, with one trading day to go left in August, it "would be the best August since 1986," per LPL.
Those like Silverblatt are "amazed," he told Fortune.
$SPX posts 5th new closing high in a row (19 new closings YTD & 143 from the Nov,’16 election), last seen for the 2018 opening (Jan 2-9), when it posted 6 in row; we crossed 3500 today (3501.38) for the first time, but didn’t close there (3584.55) pic.twitter.com/GCvE6hrBOb
— Howard Silverblatt (@hsilverb) August 27, 2020
And all around, August was a record-breaker. "To start this month, ... the first six days of August were higher," LPL's Ryan Detrick points out. Now, "We’ve had two separate six-day winning streaks in the same month—that's never happened in the history of August," he tells Fortune.
While it's certainly no secret that the Fed has investors' backs, on Thursday, chair Jerome Powell announced the Fed will now target inflation "that averages 2% over time," sending stocks higher on the promise of lower rates for longer.
"Ultra-low interest rates make it rational for investors to pay more for a given dollar of equity earnings, justifying higher valuations," Mark Haefele, UBS Global Wealth Management's chief investment officer, wrote in a note Friday. Translation? Stocks may keep trekking ever-higher at even loftier price tags.
Red flags are waving
For Randy Frederick, Charles Schwab's vice president of trading and derivatives, the markets right now can be summed up with one word: "Astounding," he tells Fortune.
But this massive run-up, with markets booking new highs each day, is starting to look extreme.
The CBOE equity put/call ratio (which tracks the volume of options and is more short-term focused) is at 38 as of Friday—"which is just unheard of," Frederick says. Essentially, "38 puts trading for every 100 calls whenever you’re at all-time highs and breaking [them] every day, that just doesn’t happen." (He notes any ratio below 60 is "unbelievably bullish.")
The upshot is that things have gotten "irrationally exuberant" as the market keeps going up while investors continue to become more bullish, Frederick notes. That should be a sign to investors that a pullback may be coming: Frederick suggests something to the tune of a 2% to 4% correction is "overdue."
Meanwhile, although the VIX index (which tracks volatility) dropped on Friday, the index has risen over the past few days alongside the markets—something that normally doesn't happen "unless the VIX is signaling a reversal to the downside," Frederick points out.
While the markets this year have been anything but predictable, all told, "I’m kind of astounded by how bullish things have been and how long they’ve lasted, so I keep sort of waving the caution flags," he says. "I’m not telling everybody to panic or sell out, but I’m saying, 'Look, there are so many flags waving right now, caution, caution, caution.'"