众所周知,房屋翻新需要的时间和成本,总要比业主的预期多一倍。但现在又有了新的变化:你还要在木料上多花一笔钱。
今年春天,各州执行封锁令,全美锯木厂停工,导致加利福尼亚的红木和南方的黄松无人砍伐,使市场上出现了木材供应不足的情况。与此同时,从家得宝(Home Depot)和劳氏公司(Lowe’s)的营收数据可以看出,新冠疫情期间的房屋翻新和自我改造项目大幅增加,房屋建设市场也出现反弹,这些趋势都增加了对木材的需求。
供应减少和需求增加,必然意味着价格暴涨:根据Random Lengths向《财富》杂志提供的数据,木材价格年比上涨了134%。
Fastmarkets RISI的高级经济学家达斯廷•贾尔伯特告诉《财富》杂志:“木材严重短缺……但需求旺盛并且持续增长。未来一两个月,木材价格会继续上涨。”
贾尔伯特表示,在疫情之初,木材行业普遍预测房地产市场会暴跌甚至崩溃。但在今年夏季,房地产和新房建设市场快速反弹:7月,新房销售创下自2006年以来的最高水平,年同比增长36%,而在房屋建设市场,住宅建设开工数增加了22.6%。虽然美国失业率高达两位数,但低利率、首次购房的千禧一代家庭和标普500指数反弹50%这些因素,促成了房地产市场的火热。
贾尔伯特称,约40%的木材被用于住房维修和改造。在疫情期间,美国人充分利用居家隔离的时间,使住房DIY改造项目大增。
美国房屋建筑商协会(National Association of Home Builders)提供给《财富》杂志的计算结果显示,木材价格上涨134%,意味着新房建设成本增加约14,000美元。
该协会的首席经济学家罗伯特•迪茨告诉《财富》杂志,大部分成本将从建筑商转嫁给消费者。美国人口普查局(U.S. Census Bureau)的数据显示,7月美国新房销售中位价格为330,600美元,比2019年7月上涨了22,300美元。迪茨补充说,房价每上涨1,000美元,将有约15万个美国家庭被挤出市场。
木材短缺能否在短期内结束?Fastmarkets RISI的贾尔伯特表示,木材供应受到的影响会持续几个月,但在年底之前可能会开始趋于平稳。
美国与加拿大之间的贸易争端也影响了木材供应。2017年,特朗普政府对大部分加拿大木材征收20%的关税。8月31日,世界贸易组织(World Trade Organization)站在了加拿大一边,裁定加拿大政府没有对木材生产提供不当补贴,推翻了白宫加征关税的理由。(财富中文网)
译者:Biz
众所周知,房屋翻新需要的时间和成本,总要比业主的预期多一倍。但现在又有了新的变化:你还要在木料上多花一笔钱。
今年春天,各州执行封锁令,全美锯木厂停工,导致加利福尼亚的红木和南方的黄松无人砍伐,使市场上出现了木材供应不足的情况。与此同时,从家得宝(Home Depot)和劳氏公司(Lowe’s)的营收数据可以看出,新冠疫情期间的房屋翻新和自我改造项目大幅增加,房屋建设市场也出现反弹,这些趋势都增加了对木材的需求。
供应减少和需求增加,必然意味着价格暴涨:根据Random Lengths向《财富》杂志提供的数据,木材价格年比上涨了134%。
Fastmarkets RISI的高级经济学家达斯廷•贾尔伯特告诉《财富》杂志:“木材严重短缺……但需求旺盛并且持续增长。未来一两个月,木材价格会继续上涨。”
贾尔伯特表示,在疫情之初,木材行业普遍预测房地产市场会暴跌甚至崩溃。但在今年夏季,房地产和新房建设市场快速反弹:7月,新房销售创下自2006年以来的最高水平,年同比增长36%,而在房屋建设市场,住宅建设开工数增加了22.6%。虽然美国失业率高达两位数,但低利率、首次购房的千禧一代家庭和标普500指数反弹50%这些因素,促成了房地产市场的火热。
贾尔伯特称,约40%的木材被用于住房维修和改造。在疫情期间,美国人充分利用居家隔离的时间,使住房DIY改造项目大增。
美国房屋建筑商协会(National Association of Home Builders)提供给《财富》杂志的计算结果显示,木材价格上涨134%,意味着新房建设成本增加约14,000美元。
该协会的首席经济学家罗伯特•迪茨告诉《财富》杂志,大部分成本将从建筑商转嫁给消费者。美国人口普查局(U.S. Census Bureau)的数据显示,7月美国新房销售中位价格为330,600美元,比2019年7月上涨了22,300美元。迪茨补充说,房价每上涨1,000美元,将有约15万个美国家庭被挤出市场。
木材短缺能否在短期内结束?Fastmarkets RISI的贾尔伯特表示,木材供应受到的影响会持续几个月,但在年底之前可能会开始趋于平稳。
美国与加拿大之间的贸易争端也影响了木材供应。2017年,特朗普政府对大部分加拿大木材征收20%的关税。8月31日,世界贸易组织(World Trade Organization)站在了加拿大一边,裁定加拿大政府没有对木材生产提供不当补贴,推翻了白宫加征关税的理由。(财富中文网)
译者:Biz
Renovations already have the reputation of taking twice the time and costing twice as much as homeowners expect. Now there’s a new twist: Getting wood is going to cost you extra, too.
State lockdowns in the spring caused sawmills across the nation to close, leaving California redwoods and Southern yellow pine uncut and reducing lumber on the market. At the same time a surge in home renovations and do-it-yourself home projects during the pandemic—just look at the earnings of Home Depot and Lowe’s—and rebounding home construction have increased the demand for timber.
Reduced supply plus increased demand is the formula for soaring prices: The price of lumber has soared 134% year over year, according to figures provided by Random Lengths to Fortune.
“This is a severe lumber shortage…Demand is hot and continues to be strong. In the next month or two it’s going to continue to be elevated,” Dustin Jalbert, senior economist at Fastmarkets RISI, told Fortune.
At the onset of the pandemic, Jalbert says, it was largely assumed in the industry that housing would slump or crash. But housing and new home construction has surged back this summer: Sales of new homes hit their highest levels since 2006 in July, jumping 36% year over year, and home construction—housing starts—climbed 22.6% in July. A combination of lower interest rates, an influx of first-time millennial home buyers, and a 50% rebound in the S&P 500 has combined to create a hot housing market despite a double-digit unemployment rate.
Around 40% of all lumber goes toward repairing and remodeling homes, Jalbert says. During the pandemic, DIY projects exploded as Americans took advantage of their time cooped up at home.
And that 134% increase in lumber prices has added around $14,000 to the cost of building a new home, according to a calculation by the National Association of Home Builders provided to Fortune.
Most of that cost is getting passed from the builder to the consumer, Robert Dietz, chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders, told Fortune. The median price tag for new homes sold in July was $330,600, up $22,300 from July 2019, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. For every $1,000 increase in home price, around 150,000 U.S. families get priced out, Dietz adds.
Will the shortage let up anytime soon? Jalbert at Fastmarkets RISI says lumber supplies will be encumbered for months, but could begin to level off by the end of the year.
And trade disputes between the U.S. and Canada are also playing a role. In 2017, the Trump administration imposed 20% tariffs on most Canadian lumber. On August 31, the World Trade Organization sided with Canada, ruling that Canadians weren’t improperly subsidizing lumber production—as the White House argued when it imposed the tariffs.