9月4日,美国电商Etsy、自动测试设备供应商Teradyne和制药公司Catalent三家公司入选标准普尔500指数,而特斯拉却意外落选。华尔街对此大为吃惊,投资者也做出反馈:9月8日午盘,特斯拉的股价应声下跌了17%以上。
美国投资研究机构晨星公司的戴维·威斯顿就是其中之一。他对标准普尔对特斯拉的冷落“并不感到意外”,并推测说:“特斯拉在盈利方面存在一系列问题,这与其排污权交易额有关。”而且他通过电子邮件告诉《财富》杂志:“标普是市值加权指数,特斯拉在市值这一块很容易达标。但或许委员会担心特斯拉收益的稳定性情况,因此没有将其纳入指数。”
事实上,在特斯拉最近一个财季,监管排污权销售额约占该公司60.4亿美元销售额的7%。
摩根大通证券的约瑟夫·奥沙指出,特斯拉第二财季的表现被媒体报道为一场“震荡”,在他看来,这种震荡产生的原因大概率是因为零排污权交易的比例高于预期。
他在接受《财富》杂志采访时说:“并不是说这些数据肯定不真实……我想,如果特斯拉能让大众更好地追踪这些数据的来源,情况或许会好很多。”
甚至连韦德布什证券长期看好特斯拉的丹·艾夫斯也表示,“决策委员会做出不纳入特斯拉的最终决定,是在诸多变动因素之间权衡后,将公认会计准则(GAAP)的盈利能力和可持续性作为大头考量的结果”。他指出,“就标普而言,这是一个证明自己的机会。”
但同时,艾夫斯和奥沙也认为,特斯拉将在未来几个季度证明自己。奥沙告诉《财富》杂志,他相信“对特斯拉盈利能力的担忧将会最终消失,那些决策者将会做‘他们该做的事情’。”
其实,特斯拉已经实现了纳入指数的一个主要要求——连续四个季度报告盈利,因此,委员会的不纳入决定让一些人感到惊讶。但惠斯顿称:“我看到有人说,特斯拉纳入标普是板上钉钉的事情,而我从来不这么认为。只要特斯拉不破产,这件事可能迟早会发生,但我很高兴,当下委员会还是选择了等待。”
实际上,仅仅满足纳入的各项指标,并不能保证特斯拉肯定能够跻身标普500指数。
与此同时,以手工艺品闻名的大型网上商城Etsy在9月4日也成功上榜,尽管两家公司的市值差距巨大(截至9月4日收盘,特斯拉的市值约为3200亿美元,远超Etsy约134亿美元的市值),这让一些分析师感到困惑。但还有一点值得注意,特斯拉刚刚报告了连续四个季度盈利的成果,而Etsy已经连续13个季度盈利了。
艾夫斯指出,尽管特斯拉纳入标准普尔的时机尚未确定,但是“如果特斯拉能够在下一季度再次实现盈利,任何标普决策者担心的问题都有可能迎刃而解。”
在新闻曝出前的上周早些时候,特斯拉股票已经遭受重创,惠斯顿指出,“投资者的反应将会很糟糕,至少对当日交易者(当天买、当天卖的投机者)来说是这样,大家都在想着赶紧卖掉离场。”
的确,艾夫斯补充道,标普的冷落是“对多头的一记猛击”。(财富中文网)
编译:杨二一
9月4日,美国电商Etsy、自动测试设备供应商Teradyne和制药公司Catalent三家公司入选标准普尔500指数,而特斯拉却意外落选。华尔街对此大为吃惊,投资者也做出反馈:9月8日午盘,特斯拉的股价应声下跌了17%以上。
美国投资研究机构晨星公司的戴维·威斯顿就是其中之一。他对标准普尔对特斯拉的冷落“并不感到意外”,并推测说:“特斯拉在盈利方面存在一系列问题,这与其排污权交易额有关。”而且他通过电子邮件告诉《财富》杂志:“标普是市值加权指数,特斯拉在市值这一块很容易达标。但或许委员会担心特斯拉收益的稳定性情况,因此没有将其纳入指数。”
事实上,在特斯拉最近一个财季,监管排污权销售额约占该公司60.4亿美元销售额的7%。
摩根大通证券的约瑟夫·奥沙指出,特斯拉第二财季的表现被媒体报道为一场“震荡”,在他看来,这种震荡产生的原因大概率是因为零排污权交易的比例高于预期。
他在接受《财富》杂志采访时说:“并不是说这些数据肯定不真实……我想,如果特斯拉能让大众更好地追踪这些数据的来源,情况或许会好很多。”
甚至连韦德布什证券长期看好特斯拉的丹·艾夫斯也表示,“决策委员会做出不纳入特斯拉的最终决定,是在诸多变动因素之间权衡后,将公认会计准则(GAAP)的盈利能力和可持续性作为大头考量的结果”。他指出,“就标普而言,这是一个证明自己的机会。”
但同时,艾夫斯和奥沙也认为,特斯拉将在未来几个季度证明自己。奥沙告诉《财富》杂志,他相信“对特斯拉盈利能力的担忧将会最终消失,那些决策者将会做‘他们该做的事情’。”
其实,特斯拉已经实现了纳入指数的一个主要要求——连续四个季度报告盈利,因此,委员会的不纳入决定让一些人感到惊讶。但惠斯顿称:“我看到有人说,特斯拉纳入标普是板上钉钉的事情,而我从来不这么认为。只要特斯拉不破产,这件事可能迟早会发生,但我很高兴,当下委员会还是选择了等待。”
实际上,仅仅满足纳入的各项指标,并不能保证特斯拉肯定能够跻身标普500指数。
与此同时,以手工艺品闻名的大型网上商城Etsy在9月4日也成功上榜,尽管两家公司的市值差距巨大(截至9月4日收盘,特斯拉的市值约为3200亿美元,远超Etsy约134亿美元的市值),这让一些分析师感到困惑。但还有一点值得注意,特斯拉刚刚报告了连续四个季度盈利的成果,而Etsy已经连续13个季度盈利了。
艾夫斯指出,尽管特斯拉纳入标准普尔的时机尚未确定,但是“如果特斯拉能够在下一季度再次实现盈利,任何标普决策者担心的问题都有可能迎刃而解。”
在新闻曝出前的上周早些时候,特斯拉股票已经遭受重创,惠斯顿指出,“投资者的反应将会很糟糕,至少对当日交易者(当天买、当天卖的投机者)来说是这样,大家都在想着赶紧卖掉离场。”
的确,艾夫斯补充道,标普的冷落是“对多头的一记猛击”。(财富中文网)
编译:杨二一
In a move that surprised the Street on September 4, Tesla was not added into the S&P 500 index—instead passed over for Etsy, Teradyne, and Catalent. And investors are clearly showing their dismay: Tesla’s stock was down over 17% in midday trading on September 8.
Morningstar’s David Whiston, for one, is “not surprised” by Tesla’s S&P snub and speculates that “Tesla has a quality of earnings issue around being profitable often with the help of emission credit sales. The index is market cap weighted, so Tesla qualifies easily in that regard. But perhaps the committee is concerned about the stability of Tesla’s earnings, and that caused them to want to wait a bit,” Whiston tells Fortune via email.
In fact, in Tesla’s most recent quarter, sales of regulatory emissions credits accounted for roughly 7% of the company’s $6.04 billion in sales.
JMP Securities’ Joseph Osha notes that while the second quarter was “widely reported as a beat,” the “reason for that beat was pretty much entirely the fact that those zero emissions credits came in higher than expected. It’s not as if it’s somehow bogus…But the perception last quarter wasn’t great that that was where the beat came from, and I guess it would be nice if [Tesla] could give us some better sense as to how those numbers should track,” he tells Fortune.
Even longtime Tesla bull Dan Ives at Wedbush Securities argues that while “there’s a range of areas where the decision committee ultimately decided not to include them this time,” the most likely is “GAAP profitability and sustainability of that metric given so many moving parts,” he tells Fortune. “It’s a ‘prove me’ situation in terms of S&P.”
But those like Ives and JMP Securities’ Osha believe Tesla will prove itself in coming quarters. Osha tells Fortune he believes “the concerns about profitability are going to evaporate, and the people who make these index decisions will do what they do.”
That said, with Tesla having having achieved one of the main requirements to be added—reporting profits for four consecutive quarters—the wait has surprised some. Morningstar’s Whiston says that “I’ve seen people saying that inclusion was certain, and I never thought it was certain. It’s likely inevitable, assuming Tesla does not collapse, but I’m glad the committee chose to wait.”
Indeed, simply meeting the parameters for inclusion doesn’t guarantee the S&P Dow Jones Indices will add the company to the S&P 500.
Meanwhile, Etsy, the mega online marketplace known for craft goods, did make the cut on September 4, despite a yawning gulf between market caps (Tesla’s roughly $320 billion dwarfs that of Etsy at around $13.4 billion, as of September 4’s close), leaving some analysts scratching their heads. Yet while Tesla may be more popular and powerful with traders, the company has only just reported the required four consecutive quarters of profits—while Etsy has reported 13 consecutive quarters of profits.
Ives notes the timing for inclusion is still up in the air, but “another quarter of profitability would help answer any lingering questions that S&P have,” he notes.
With the stock’s already having taken a beating earlier last week before Friday’s news, Whiston notes “the investor reaction at least with day traders will be poor because those people are trading it and hoping to flip the stock fast.”
Indeed, adds Ives, the S&P snub is “a gut punch to the bulls.”