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小心,成长股与价值股已严重脱节

Anne Sraders
2020-09-22

上一次成长股与价值股之间出现如此严重的脱节时,市场出现了回调,投资者重新回归低价价值股。

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大部分孩子在家上课。棒球赛场上只有纸片人观众。许多州的天空烟雾弥漫。2020年,有许多不同寻常的事情发生。比如,对于成长型投资者来说,一个华尔街的指标可能预示着将有坏事发生。

美国财务研究与分析中心(CFRA Research)的山姆•斯托瓦尔分析了成长股与价值股连续12个月的收益差。他报告称,截至8月31日,这两种股票的月底收益差创下历史新高。斯托瓦尔在最近发表的一篇报告中表示,进入9月,两种股票的收益差比两个标准偏差阈值高出约60%,超过了“上世纪90年代末互联网泡沫期间的最高水平”。

事实上,上一次成长股与价值股之间出现如此严重的脱节时,市场出现了回调,投资者重新回归低价价值股,比如2000年的股市表现非常明显。斯托瓦尔补充说,“成长股”的主力是科技、非必需消费品和通信服务等行业。

目前,从3月23日至9月18日收盘,标普500成长指数上涨了约56%,而标普500价值指数上涨了约38%。斯托瓦尔称,即使在9月初成长股出现大幅回调之后,价值股与成长股之间所存在的收益差,依旧是自1999年年末以来史上最大的差距。

他告诉《财富》杂志:“我很担心这个问题,但至少在短期内,市场似乎对此并不担心。”

他表示,以2000年严重的股市泡沫为例,“当时我们或许只担心科技股,但今天,我们担心的是成长股与价值股的差异。”他认为:“至少从成长股与价值股的收益差来看,我感觉我们已经进入了市场泡沫阶段,但这个泡沫不需要整个市场将其放大,现在的状况更像是:‘正是因为这个原因,我们或许将经历一次从成长股到价值股的轮回。’”

事实上,联博集团(AllianceBernstein)的托妮•萨克纳吉领导的分析师在9月14日发表的一篇报告中写道,过去几年,投资者向成长股“转移的速度是史无前例的”,而且“在科技股和整个市场,这种成长股繁荣的强度和可持续性,或许是当今投资者面临的最大问题。”

但许多华尔街的投资者并不担心:高盛(Goldman Sachs)分析师在9月16日发布的一篇报告中写道:“在低利率可能持续多年的环境下,成长股对于投资者的价值是前所未有的。”分析师指出,过去一年、三年、五年和十年,成长股的表现都胜过了价值股。高盛的分析师称,虽然可能有“短期中断”,但整体上,“投资者对长期成长股的需求将持续存在。”这主要是得益于美联储再次承诺在2023年之前将继续维持接近零利率。

对于渴望找出下一个市场泡沫的投资者,斯托瓦尔提出了警告:“现在我们必须小心谨慎。或许成长股会成为新的科技泡沫。”(财富中文网)

译者:刘进龙

审校:汪皓

大部分孩子在家上课。棒球赛场上只有纸片人观众。许多州的天空烟雾弥漫。2020年,有许多不同寻常的事情发生。比如,对于成长型投资者来说,一个华尔街的指标可能预示着将有坏事发生。

美国财务研究与分析中心(CFRA Research)的山姆•斯托瓦尔分析了成长股与价值股连续12个月的收益差。他报告称,截至8月31日,这两种股票的月底收益差创下历史新高。斯托瓦尔在最近发表的一篇报告中表示,进入9月,两种股票的收益差比两个标准偏差阈值高出约60%,超过了“上世纪90年代末互联网泡沫期间的最高水平”。

事实上,上一次成长股与价值股之间出现如此严重的脱节时,市场出现了回调,投资者重新回归低价价值股,比如2000年的股市表现非常明显。斯托瓦尔补充说,“成长股”的主力是科技、非必需消费品和通信服务等行业。

目前,从3月23日至9月18日收盘,标普500成长指数上涨了约56%,而标普500价值指数上涨了约38%。斯托瓦尔称,即使在9月初成长股出现大幅回调之后,价值股与成长股之间所存在的收益差,依旧是自1999年年末以来史上最大的差距。

他告诉《财富》杂志:“我很担心这个问题,但至少在短期内,市场似乎对此并不担心。”

他表示,以2000年严重的股市泡沫为例,“当时我们或许只担心科技股,但今天,我们担心的是成长股与价值股的差异。”他认为:“至少从成长股与价值股的收益差来看,我感觉我们已经进入了市场泡沫阶段,但这个泡沫不需要整个市场将其放大,现在的状况更像是:‘正是因为这个原因,我们或许将经历一次从成长股到价值股的轮回。’”

事实上,联博集团(AllianceBernstein)的托妮•萨克纳吉领导的分析师在9月14日发表的一篇报告中写道,过去几年,投资者向成长股“转移的速度是史无前例的”,而且“在科技股和整个市场,这种成长股繁荣的强度和可持续性,或许是当今投资者面临的最大问题。”

但许多华尔街的投资者并不担心:高盛(Goldman Sachs)分析师在9月16日发布的一篇报告中写道:“在低利率可能持续多年的环境下,成长股对于投资者的价值是前所未有的。”分析师指出,过去一年、三年、五年和十年,成长股的表现都胜过了价值股。高盛的分析师称,虽然可能有“短期中断”,但整体上,“投资者对长期成长股的需求将持续存在。”这主要是得益于美联储再次承诺在2023年之前将继续维持接近零利率。

对于渴望找出下一个市场泡沫的投资者,斯托瓦尔提出了警告:“现在我们必须小心谨慎。或许成长股会成为新的科技泡沫。”(财富中文网)

译者:刘进龙

审校:汪皓

Most kids are at school—at home. Baseball games have cardboard fans. Smoke is obscuring the sky in many states. It's 2020, and a lot of things are out of whack. Including one Wall Street indicator that could portend bad things to come for growth investors.

CFRA Research's Sam Stovall has been watching the rolling 12-month differential between growth and value stock returns, and reports that as of August 31, the differential was at its highest month-ending level ever. Heading into September, that level was almost 60% higher than its two-standard deviation threshold, he notes, and surpasses "the highs set during the tech bubble of the late 1990s," Stovall wrote in a recent note.

Indeed, the last time growth and value were this disconnected, the market corrected itself and investors swung back into the lower-priced value, as we saw in dramatic fashion in 2000. Those principle sectors dominating "growth" are tech, consumer discretionary, and communication services, Stovall adds.

Currently, the S&P 500 Growth Index has risen roughly 56% from March 23 through September 18's close, while the S&P 500 Value Index has gained about 38%. And even following the big correction we saw in growth stocks to kick off September, the divergence between value and growth is still the highest since late 1999, Stovall says.

That's "a concern for me, but it doesn’t really seem to be a concern for the market, at least in the near term," Stovall tells Fortune.

Looking to the big stock market bubble in 2000, "Back then, maybe we were worried about tech individually, whereas today, maybe the concern is more to do with growth versus value," Stovall suggests. "I feel as if we’re in a bubble, at least based on the growth versus value disconnect, but instead of it being a bubble that requires the entire market to blow up, maybe it’s more like, ‘Here’s a reason why we will probably go through some sort of a rotation from growth into value,'" he argues.

Indeed, analysts led by Toni Sacconaghi at firm AllianceBernstein wrote in a note on September 14 that over the past few years, there has been "unprecedented migration" to growth, and the "strength and sustainability of this growth rally in tech and the broader market is probably the biggest question among investors today."

Many on the Street, however, are undeterred: Analysts at Goldman Sachs wrote in a note on September 16 that "growth is more valuable to investors than ever in the low interest rate environment that is likely to persist for years," noting that growth has outperformed value during the past one, three, five, and 10 years. And while there may be "short-term disruptions," overall, "investor demand for secular growth will persist," Goldman Sachs notes, driven largely by the Fed's renewed commitment to keep interest rates at roughly zero likely through 2023.

Yet for investors eager to pick out the next market bubble, Stovall issues a word of caution: "Today, we’ve got to be careful. Maybe growth is the new tech."

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