尽管人们对特斯拉的“电池日”期待已久,但该活动还不足以重燃投资者对其股票的热情。不过也有一些分析师认为,该公司的情况比以往任何时候都更加乐观。
在9月22日晚的发布会上,这家由埃隆•马斯克领导的公司展示了其在电池制造方面的技术创新、工厂详细信息以及未来会推出的更便宜的车型等。而在此之后,特斯拉的股票应声下跌,在9月23日的早盘交易中,跌幅超过6%。但一些分析师对此并不感到惊讶。
晨星公司的戴维•惠斯顿在9月23日的一份报告中说:“鉴于特斯拉的股价在此前已经上涨到令人难以置信的幅度,我们怀疑其备受期待的9月22日电池日活动能否达到市场预期,该股在盘后交易中下跌了约7%。”投行Wedbush的分析师丹•艾夫斯告诉《财富》杂志,在各方炒作下,不管特斯拉之后宣布什么,股价都可能保持上涨趋势。
但艾夫斯认为,投资者的失望也可能是一种催化剂:“特斯拉并未发布‘百万英里’电池……而人们原本对此期望很高。”他还表示:“投资者的反馈能够说明很多情况,从中可以看出为什么股票会下跌。”(特斯拉调侃的“百万英里电池”和当前型号相比,电量将大大提高。)
惠斯顿通过电子邮件告诉《财富》杂志,他认为,“该股票短期内将一无所有”,因为特斯拉发布会中详述的“电池制造技术创新”已经是一个“讲了很多年的故事,有些投资者因此很失望。当一家公司的股价已经持续上涨了几个月,而他们并没有什么实际产出时,就可能发生这种情况——就像火箭突然耗尽了燃料。”
但是艾夫斯并不那么担心:他认为,人们在该股票下跌后“下意识”般的负面态度是一种“过度反应”。特斯拉的发布会中也有很多可圈可点之处,值得对其未来发展保持乐观态度。
对艾夫斯来说,最值得强调的是马斯克为之后能够将电池成本降低50%“奠定了基础”。他说:“如果他们可以按计划投入生产,其赢利情况就会得到大大的改善。”他还建议,正是这些降低成本的计划,加上该公司推出的新型4680电池,让其有可能成为“潜在的范式改变者”,帮助这家电动汽车制造商实现持续盈利,并增加其市场份额。
同时,惠斯顿认为,“就像我们已经听到的……特斯拉的新产品,例如将于2021年下半年推出的Model S,以及会在三年内推出的售价为25,000美元的新型号,将带来更大的销售机会。”
从这种角度看,像艾夫斯这样的人就认为,9月23日的抛售正是长期投资者的买入机会,尽管该股在9月的遭遇十分艰难:经历了股票拆分,又未能加入标普500指数之后,该公司的股价也受到了沉重的打击——自9月1日以来,跌幅超过10%。
但艾夫斯认为:“股市很容易受到外界影响,一有什么嘈杂喧嚣的声音和情绪波动就可能进入牛市/熊市。归根结底,如果特斯拉能够在电池成本上像他们计划的那样投入生产,那么他们期望的一切都会来临:盈利、加入标普500指数、更多的市场份额,并最终会实现他们的蓝图——利润率可能是今天的5倍或10倍。”(财富中文网)
编译:陈聪聪
尽管人们对特斯拉的“电池日”期待已久,但该活动还不足以重燃投资者对其股票的热情。不过也有一些分析师认为,该公司的情况比以往任何时候都更加乐观。
在9月22日晚的发布会上,这家由埃隆•马斯克领导的公司展示了其在电池制造方面的技术创新、工厂详细信息以及未来会推出的更便宜的车型等。而在此之后,特斯拉的股票应声下跌,在9月23日的早盘交易中,跌幅超过6%。但一些分析师对此并不感到惊讶。
晨星公司的戴维•惠斯顿在9月23日的一份报告中说:“鉴于特斯拉的股价在此前已经上涨到令人难以置信的幅度,我们怀疑其备受期待的9月22日电池日活动能否达到市场预期,该股在盘后交易中下跌了约7%。”投行Wedbush的分析师丹•艾夫斯告诉《财富》杂志,在各方炒作下,不管特斯拉之后宣布什么,股价都可能保持上涨趋势。
但艾夫斯认为,投资者的失望也可能是一种催化剂:“特斯拉并未发布‘百万英里’电池……而人们原本对此期望很高。”他还表示:“投资者的反馈能够说明很多情况,从中可以看出为什么股票会下跌。”(特斯拉调侃的“百万英里电池”和当前型号相比,电量将大大提高。)
惠斯顿通过电子邮件告诉《财富》杂志,他认为,“该股票短期内将一无所有”,因为特斯拉发布会中详述的“电池制造技术创新”已经是一个“讲了很多年的故事,有些投资者因此很失望。当一家公司的股价已经持续上涨了几个月,而他们并没有什么实际产出时,就可能发生这种情况——就像火箭突然耗尽了燃料。”
但是艾夫斯并不那么担心:他认为,人们在该股票下跌后“下意识”般的负面态度是一种“过度反应”。特斯拉的发布会中也有很多可圈可点之处,值得对其未来发展保持乐观态度。
对艾夫斯来说,最值得强调的是马斯克为之后能够将电池成本降低50%“奠定了基础”。他说:“如果他们可以按计划投入生产,其赢利情况就会得到大大的改善。”他还建议,正是这些降低成本的计划,加上该公司推出的新型4680电池,让其有可能成为“潜在的范式改变者”,帮助这家电动汽车制造商实现持续盈利,并增加其市场份额。
同时,惠斯顿认为,“就像我们已经听到的……特斯拉的新产品,例如将于2021年下半年推出的Model S,以及会在三年内推出的售价为25,000美元的新型号,将带来更大的销售机会。”
从这种角度看,像艾夫斯这样的人就认为,9月23日的抛售正是长期投资者的买入机会,尽管该股在9月的遭遇十分艰难:经历了股票拆分,又未能加入标普500指数之后,该公司的股价也受到了沉重的打击——自9月1日以来,跌幅超过10%。
但艾夫斯认为:“股市很容易受到外界影响,一有什么嘈杂喧嚣的声音和情绪波动就可能进入牛市/熊市。归根结底,如果特斯拉能够在电池成本上像他们计划的那样投入生产,那么他们期望的一切都会来临:盈利、加入标普500指数、更多的市场份额,并最终会实现他们的蓝图——利润率可能是今天的5倍或10倍。”(财富中文网)
编译:陈聪聪
It appears Tesla's long-awaited Battery Day wasn't enough to recharge investors' love for the stock—but some analysts are more bullish than ever.
Following the presentation on September 22 evening, during which the Elon Musk-led company unveiled battery construction innovations, factory details, and future cheaper models, Tesla's stock slumped after hours and is trading down over 6% in September 23 morning trading. But that hasn't come as a surprise to some analysts.
"Given Tesla’s stock incredible run up, we were skeptical that its long-awaited Sept. 22 Battery Day event would meet market expectations and the stock fell about 7% in afterhours trading," Morningstar's David Whiston wrote in a note on September 23. Wedbush's Dan Ives tells Fortune that given all the hype, "it was almost possible for them to announce a string of things that would keep the stock higher after the event."
But Ives boils down investor dismay to one catalyst: "They didn't announce a million mile battery, ... where there was high anticipation they would announce that," says Ives. "I can tell you from investor feedback, ... that speaks to why the stock is down." (The one million mile battery, teased by Tesla, would allow batteries to be recharged more than current models.)
In Whiston's view, "the stock has nothing left for the near term," as the manufacturing innovations detailed in Tesla's presentation are "a multiyear story and I think there are some investors disappointed by that. That can happen when a stock zooms upward for no reason for months, all of a sudden the rocket runs out of fuel," Whiston tells Fortune via email.
But Ives is much less deterred: The negative "knee-jerk" reaction to the stock is an "overreaction," he argues. And there's plenty to be optimistic about in Tesla's presentation.
For Ives, the "headline" is Musk "laying the groundwork" for a 50% reduction in battery costs. "If they're able to execute on that, which we believe they will, the story changes from a profitability perspective," he says. It's that cost reduction announcement coupled with the company's introduction of a new battery cell, the 4680 cell, that is a "potential paradigm changer," Ives suggests, and could help the electric vehicle maker continue to achieve profitability and gain market share.
Meanwhile, Morningstar's Whiston "liked what we heard ... and new product, such as Plaid Mode for the Model S due in late 2021 and a $25,000 vehicle in about three years, bring opportunities for more volume," he wrote.
From that perspective, those like Ives view September 23’s sell off as a buying opportunity for long-term investors, even as the stock has faced a tough September. This month, Tesla shares have taken a beating following its stock split and failure to join the S&P 500 index. The stock is down over 10% since Sept. 1.
But Ives argues "it's very easy to get into the noise and the emotional bull/bear story. At the end of the day, if they're able to execute on the cost side for batteries, everything else is going to come: profitability, S&P 500 inclusion, more market share, and ultimately that trajectory to what could be profitability that's 5x, 10x from where it is today."