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下任美国总统或将大幅影响特斯拉营收

Shawn Tully
2020-10-13

新一届政府可能会颠覆现有局面。

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图片来源:ILLUSTRATION BY JAMIE CULLEN

多年来,一直有一个摆在眼前的“公开的秘密”,大家却很少谈论:特斯拉并不靠卖车赚到大钱。相反,特斯拉精明地利用了对销售全球碳排放积分的复杂市场的掌控来盈利。据《财富》杂志此前的详细报道,特斯拉的积分销售额一开始很小,2011年之前平均每年为340万美元,但到2020年6月30日为止的最后四个季度,这一数字增长到了10.49亿美元。

特斯拉的碳排放积分销售额(2009-2020)。来源:特斯拉公司季报及年报

总结来说,特斯拉从四个主要来源积累可交易积分(tradable credits)。第一类来自各州,特别是加州实施的零排放车辆(ZEV)计划。另外两项都是美国联邦标准:美国环境保护署实施的温室气体(GHG)排放规定,以及美国国家公路交通安全管理局制定的企业平均燃油经济性(CAFE)规定。最后一项则是欧盟的二氧化碳排放目标。

CAFE诞生于1978年石油危机期间,它为制造商所有的车型系列设定了平均每加仑行驶里程的年度标准。2007年美国最高法院的一项裁决将二氧化碳定为污染物,美国环保署由此被赋予了监管车辆的权力。GHG则规定了汽车制造商每辆车的二氧化碳排放量的处罚界线。这两个项目都要求汽车制造商从2012年开始遵守相关规定。同年,他们也开始向超过基准的制造商发放类似ZEV的积分。

在这两个项目中,特斯拉每生产一辆车就可以获得最高碳排放积分,因为它的汽车既不消耗汽油,也不排放二氧化碳。因此,特斯拉所获积分会随着汽车生产而平稳上升。消费者对其积分的需求也随着特斯拉生产更多的异形卡车和SUV而增加。特斯拉的积分增长和客户赤字紧密连接,所以其用CAFE和GHG信用进行长期交易——与起伏不定的ZEV销售收入相比,后者产生的收入更稳定。

在美国前总统奥巴马的领导下,CAFE和GHG的规定变得更加严格,强制要求每年提高5%的燃油经济性(fuel economy),同时降低二氧化碳的排放克数。然而,特朗普政府将要求降低到每年仅提高1.5%。如果这一政策继续奏效,则意味着大多数汽车制造商在未来将不需要增加碳排放积分的购买,反而有可能减少。

环境经济学家、田纳西大学助理教授本·利德说:“加州的情况则完全不同,加州就像一个不同的国家。”奥巴马的规定对汽车制造商施加了很大压力,要求它们购买更多的积分。考虑到标准的回落,这种压力预计在未来几年会有所缓解。因此,他预测,2021年以及未来几年,碳排放信用的价格,甚至是销量都或将下降。

如果目前的规则保持不变,特斯拉很可能会看到其CAFE和GHG收入持续下降。与出现峰值后急剧下滑的ZEV形成对比,CAFE及GHG的下降应该是渐进的。

但新一届政府可能会颠覆这一局面。如果拜登当选总统,并恢复这些激进的目标,这将极大地促进CAFE和GHG的销售。在他的《气候变化和环境正义计划》中,拜登引用了他在奥巴马政府时期提高CAFE的提议,暗示他一旦当选,将推动恢复甚至加强这些标准。要做到这一点,在说服特朗普撤销之前,他需要从那些最初同意奥巴马规定的汽车公司那里买进。如果他不能得到汽车制造商的同意,他可能需要诉诸法律——加强温室气体排放规则需要修改《清洁空气法》。因此,如果拜登以压倒性的优势赢得总统职位,保持众议院多数席位,并在参议院中获胜,汽车制造商可能会被迫购买更多的特斯拉积分,以规避巨额罚款。然而,对特斯拉来说,这只是一个短期的优势:这一更为严格的制度还将迫使汽车制造商加快转向电动汽车的步伐。

与此同时,在欧洲,出售碳排放积分的红利可能已经行将结束。特斯拉欧洲最大的积分买家是吉普、菲亚特、玛莎拉蒂和阿尔法·罗密欧的制造商菲亚特克莱斯勒集团(FCA)。但FCA计划从2020年到2022年推出多款混合动力、插电式和电动汽车,包括新版的Jeep Renegade SUV,以及菲亚特500的全电动新车型。FCA的领导人公开表示,他们希望汽车制造商到2022年能够遵守新规定,这意味着它将不再需要特斯拉的积分。此外,2019年底,FCA同意与更注重环保的标致合并,预计明年完成合并工作。

但即便是白宫的环保人士也只会为特斯拉“争取一些时间”,而不是“保护它目前的利润”。CAFE和GHG的收入最终将屈服于日益激烈的竞争:大约从2023年开始,来自福特等制造商的新电动汽车的大量涌入,将使它们的产品更接近完全达标,从而减少它们对特斯拉积分的购买。

在那之后,特斯拉似乎只能通过最传统的方式来继续实现盈利——卖车。(财富中文网)

编译:杨二一

多年来,一直有一个摆在眼前的“公开的秘密”,大家却很少谈论:特斯拉并不靠卖车赚到大钱。相反,特斯拉精明地利用了对销售全球碳排放积分的复杂市场的掌控来盈利。据《财富》杂志此前的详细报道,特斯拉的积分销售额一开始很小,2011年之前平均每年为340万美元,但到2020年6月30日为止的最后四个季度,这一数字增长到了10.49亿美元。

总结来说,特斯拉从四个主要来源积累可交易积分(tradable credits)。第一类来自各州,特别是加州实施的零排放车辆(ZEV)计划。另外两项都是美国联邦标准:美国环境保护署实施的温室气体(GHG)排放规定,以及美国国家公路交通安全管理局制定的企业平均燃油经济性(CAFE)规定。最后一项则是欧盟的二氧化碳排放目标。

CAFE诞生于1978年石油危机期间,它为制造商所有的车型系列设定了平均每加仑行驶里程的年度标准。2007年美国最高法院的一项裁决将二氧化碳定为污染物,美国环保署由此被赋予了监管车辆的权力。GHG则规定了汽车制造商每辆车的二氧化碳排放量的处罚界线。这两个项目都要求汽车制造商从2012年开始遵守相关规定。同年,他们也开始向超过基准的制造商发放类似ZEV的积分。

在这两个项目中,特斯拉每生产一辆车就可以获得最高碳排放积分,因为它的汽车既不消耗汽油,也不排放二氧化碳。因此,特斯拉所获积分会随着汽车生产而平稳上升。消费者对其积分的需求也随着特斯拉生产更多的异形卡车和SUV而增加。特斯拉的积分增长和客户赤字紧密连接,所以其用CAFE和GHG信用进行长期交易——与起伏不定的ZEV销售收入相比,后者产生的收入更稳定。

在美国前总统奥巴马的领导下,CAFE和GHG的规定变得更加严格,强制要求每年提高5%的燃油经济性(fuel economy),同时降低二氧化碳的排放克数。然而,特朗普政府将要求降低到每年仅提高1.5%。如果这一政策继续奏效,则意味着大多数汽车制造商在未来将不需要增加碳排放积分的购买,反而有可能减少。

环境经济学家、田纳西大学助理教授本·利德说:“加州的情况则完全不同,加州就像一个不同的国家。”奥巴马的规定对汽车制造商施加了很大压力,要求它们购买更多的积分。考虑到标准的回落,这种压力预计在未来几年会有所缓解。因此,他预测,2021年以及未来几年,碳排放信用的价格,甚至是销量都或将下降。

如果目前的规则保持不变,特斯拉很可能会看到其CAFE和GHG收入持续下降。与出现峰值后急剧下滑的ZEV形成对比,CAFE及GHG的下降应该是渐进的。

但新一届政府可能会颠覆这一局面。如果拜登当选总统,并恢复这些激进的目标,这将极大地促进CAFE和GHG的销售。在他的《气候变化和环境正义计划》中,拜登引用了他在奥巴马政府时期提高CAFE的提议,暗示他一旦当选,将推动恢复甚至加强这些标准。要做到这一点,在说服特朗普撤销之前,他需要从那些最初同意奥巴马规定的汽车公司那里买进。如果他不能得到汽车制造商的同意,他可能需要诉诸法律——加强温室气体排放规则需要修改《清洁空气法》。因此,如果拜登以压倒性的优势赢得总统职位,保持众议院多数席位,并在参议院中获胜,汽车制造商可能会被迫购买更多的特斯拉积分,以规避巨额罚款。然而,对特斯拉来说,这只是一个短期的优势:这一更为严格的制度还将迫使汽车制造商加快转向电动汽车的步伐。

与此同时,在欧洲,出售碳排放积分的红利可能已经行将结束。特斯拉欧洲最大的积分买家是吉普、菲亚特、玛莎拉蒂和阿尔法·罗密欧的制造商菲亚特克莱斯勒集团(FCA)。但FCA计划从2020年到2022年推出多款混合动力、插电式和电动汽车,包括新版的Jeep Renegade SUV,以及菲亚特500的全电动新车型。FCA的领导人公开表示,他们希望汽车制造商到2022年能够遵守新规定,这意味着它将不再需要特斯拉的积分。此外,2019年底,FCA同意与更注重环保的标致合并,预计明年完成合并工作。

但即便是白宫的环保人士也只会为特斯拉“争取一些时间”,而不是“保护它目前的利润”。CAFE和GHG的收入最终将屈服于日益激烈的竞争:大约从2023年开始,来自福特等制造商的新电动汽车的大量涌入,将使它们的产品更接近完全达标,从而减少它们对特斯拉积分的购买。

在那之后,特斯拉似乎只能通过最传统的方式来继续实现盈利——卖车。(财富中文网)

编译:杨二一

For years it has been a little-talked about secret hiding in plain sight: Tesla doesn’t make much of its money selling cars. Instead, the company has shrewdly capitalized on mastering a complex market for selling global emissions credits. As Fortune previously examined in detail, Tesla’s credit sales started off small, averaging $3.4 million per year through 2011, and rising to $1.049 billion through the last four quarters ended June 30, 2020.

To sum it up, Tesla amasses tradable credits from four main sources. The first category is zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) programs run by the states, notably California. It also benefits from two U.S. federal standards, the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions regulations imposed by the Environmental Protection Agency, and corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) rules established by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. The fourth is the European Union’s CO2 emissions targets.

CAFE was born during the oil crisis of 1978 and sets annual average miles per gallon standards that a manufacturer must meet for its entire fleet. GHG arose from a 2007 Supreme Court decision that designated CO2 as a pollutant, and hence gave the EPA authority to regulate vehicles. GHG establishes a limit for the amount of CO2 per vehicle a manufacturer’s fleet can emit before triggering penalties. Both programs, which closely coordinate their regulations, required that automakers start complying in 2012. That same year, they also began awarding ZEV-like credits to manufacturers that exceeded the benchmarks.

Under both programs, Tesla earns maximum credits for every car it produces, since its vehicles neither consume gasoline nor spew CO2. In fact, the credits it receives rise smoothly with production. Its customers’ need for credits rises in parallel as they make more noncompliant trucks and SUVs. Since Tesla’s credits and its customers’ deficits run in tandem, Tesla trades its CAFE and GHG credits on long-term contracts that produce more consistent, though in the past smaller, revenue than the inflow from lumpy ZEV sales.

Under President Obama, the CAFE and GHG rules got a lot stricter, mandating 5% annual increases in fuel economy and a like decline in grams of CO2. But the Trump administration rolled back the requirements to yearly improvements of just 1.5%. If it remains in effect, that downshift means that most carmakers posting shortfalls won’t need to increase their purchases of credits in the future, and may buy fewer of them.

“This is totally different from California, which is like a different country,” says Ben Leard, an environmental economist and an assistant professor at the University of Tennessee. “The Obama rules were putting a lot of pressure on carmakers to buy more credits.” That pressure is expected to ease in the years ahead, given the rollback in standards. As a result, he predicts that the price of credits, and possibly the volumes sold, will decrease in 2021 and the years ahead.

If the current rules hold, Tesla is likely to see its CAFE and GHG revenues fall going forward. The decline should should be gradual, in contrast to ZEV, which should see a spike followed by a steep slide starting in a couple of years.

But a new administration could flip that script. If President Biden were to restore the aggressive targets, it would be a huge boost CAFE and GHG sales. In his “Plan for Climate Change and Environmental Justice,” Biden cites his pride in raising the CAFE mileage requirements during the Obama administration, implying that he’d push to revive or even tighten those standards as President. To do so, he’d need a buy-in from the auto companies that initially agreed to the Obama rules before convincing Trump to roll them back. If he doesn’t get carmakers to agree, he’d likely need to resort to legislation. And toughening the GHG rules requires amending the Clean Air Act. So if Biden wins the presidency in a blue sweep, keeps the House majority and wins the Senate, automakers will probably be forced to buy a lot more of Tesla’s credits to skirt big fines. That’s only a short-term benefit, however. The stricter regime will also force the manufacturers to accelerate their move to electric cars.

Meanwhile in Europe, the glory days of selling carbon credits may already be numbered. There, Tesla’s biggest buyer of credits has been FCA, maker of Jeep, Fiat, Maserati, and Alfa Romeo. But FCA plans to launch a number of hybrids, plug-ins, and EVs from 2020 to 2022, including new versions of the Jeep Renegade SUV, as well as the new all-electric version of the Fiat 500. FCA’s leaders have stated publicly that they expect the automaker to be compliant with the new rules on its own by 2022, implying that it will no longer need Tesla. At the end of 2019, FCA agreed to merge with the much greener Peugeot, a deal expected to close next year. That union could bring FCA in line still earlier.

But even an environmentalist in the White House will only buy Tesla some time, rather than preserve its current flood of profits. CAFE and GHG revenues will eventually succumb to the blow of increased competition: Starting around 2023 an influx of new EVs from manufacturers like Ford will bring their fleets closer to full compliance, reducing their purchases of Tesla credits relative to the past.

After that, it appears Tesla will have to reach profitability the old-fashioned way: by selling cars.

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