我最近一直在思考几年前在硅谷投资圈内很流行的一个问题——“你的业务是一个特色、产品,还是一门生意?”——以及它如何适用于大量正在争夺美国客户的所谓“挑战者银行”。
几年前,通过利用客户对现有银行滥收费用和糟糕的移动体验的不满情绪,挑战者银行(有些人称之为数字银行或新银行)突然崛起。这些后起之秀以轻资产运营(不设分支机构,没有出纳员)著称,并通过社交媒体和口碑获取客户的精明策略实现增长。
最突出的挑战者莫过于Chime,其估值最近达到145亿美元。其他潜在的颠覆者包括Varo、Revolut、N26、Monzo、Dave、HMBradley和MoneyLion。这个名单还在延续。
我的问题是,再过两年,这些挑战者还会存活多少。我预感不会有太多。回到“特色、产品或生意”的问题上,许多此类公司看起来更像是一种特色服务,而不是成熟的金融企业。这些挑战者的许多特色服务,比如透支通知或缀满闪光饰片的借记卡,不仅被它们的新贵竞争对手仿效,也被一些老牌银行竞相仿效。
与此同时,它们的商业模式面临着巨大的阻力。安德森•霍洛维兹基金(Andreessen Horowitz)在一篇精辟的文章中指出,美联储的低利率政策意味着, 通过提供高利息储蓄率来挖走新客户的做法不再可行。这家风险投资公司还指出,可以廉价获得的客户池正在缩小,而将直接存款转移到挑战者银行的客户也变得越来越少。
那么,这些后起之秀要如何赚钱呢?最有可能的答案是它们并不赚钱。当客户刷借记卡时,挑战者银行能够从商户那里获得犹如涓涓细流的收入,但从长期来看,这并不足以支持它们繁荣发展。要想成为一门生意,而不是一种特色服务,它们就必须做成功的银行一直在做的事情:吸收存款并将其贷出,以获取利润。但这并非易事,因为竞争对手已经抓住了最具信誉的客户,而且成为一家成熟的贷款机构需要付出高昂的监管成本。那么接下来会发生什么呢?
PitchBook数据公司的分析师罗伯特•勒指出:“这是一个非常拥挤的领域,我认为许多小规模玩家将会出局,而那些拥有良好客户基础的公司会被收购。”他预测,我们很快就会看到一场淘汰赛,Chime和SoFi等公司将获得联邦银行执照(Varo已经有了),成为金融界的重要组成部分,而一些小公司要么消失,要么因为它们的特色服务而被吞并。
我认为他的预测很靠谱。还有一件事情需要考虑:如果罗伯特•勒说得对,整合即将来临,那么收购者中是否会有像Coinbase、Kraken或Gemini这样的大型加密货币公司?这些公司一直在积极并购,而抢购一家新银行可以帮助它们扩大金融版图,并提供一种向数百万客户引荐比特币的简单途径。当然,这仅仅是一家之言。(财富中文网)
译者:任文科
我最近一直在思考几年前在硅谷投资圈内很流行的一个问题——“你的业务是一个特色、产品,还是一门生意?”——以及它如何适用于大量正在争夺美国客户的所谓“挑战者银行”。
几年前,通过利用客户对现有银行滥收费用和糟糕的移动体验的不满情绪,挑战者银行(有些人称之为数字银行或新银行)突然崛起。这些后起之秀以轻资产运营(不设分支机构,没有出纳员)著称,并通过社交媒体和口碑获取客户的精明策略实现增长。
最突出的挑战者莫过于Chime,其估值最近达到145亿美元。其他潜在的颠覆者包括Varo、Revolut、N26、Monzo、Dave、HMBradley和MoneyLion。这个名单还在延续。
我的问题是,再过两年,这些挑战者还会存活多少。我预感不会有太多。回到“特色、产品或生意”的问题上,许多此类公司看起来更像是一种特色服务,而不是成熟的金融企业。这些挑战者的许多特色服务,比如透支通知或缀满闪光饰片的借记卡,不仅被它们的新贵竞争对手仿效,也被一些老牌银行竞相仿效。
与此同时,它们的商业模式面临着巨大的阻力。安德森•霍洛维兹基金(Andreessen Horowitz)在一篇精辟的文章中指出,美联储的低利率政策意味着, 通过提供高利息储蓄率来挖走新客户的做法不再可行。这家风险投资公司还指出,可以廉价获得的客户池正在缩小,而将直接存款转移到挑战者银行的客户也变得越来越少。
那么,这些后起之秀要如何赚钱呢?最有可能的答案是它们并不赚钱。当客户刷借记卡时,挑战者银行能够从商户那里获得犹如涓涓细流的收入,但从长期来看,这并不足以支持它们繁荣发展。要想成为一门生意,而不是一种特色服务,它们就必须做成功的银行一直在做的事情:吸收存款并将其贷出,以获取利润。但这并非易事,因为竞争对手已经抓住了最具信誉的客户,而且成为一家成熟的贷款机构需要付出高昂的监管成本。那么接下来会发生什么呢?
PitchBook数据公司的分析师罗伯特•勒指出:“这是一个非常拥挤的领域,我认为许多小规模玩家将会出局,而那些拥有良好客户基础的公司会被收购。”他预测,我们很快就会看到一场淘汰赛,Chime和SoFi等公司将获得联邦银行执照(Varo已经有了),成为金融界的重要组成部分,而一些小公司要么消失,要么因为它们的特色服务而被吞并。
我认为他的预测很靠谱。还有一件事情需要考虑:如果罗伯特•勒说得对,整合即将来临,那么收购者中是否会有像Coinbase、Kraken或Gemini这样的大型加密货币公司?这些公司一直在积极并购,而抢购一家新银行可以帮助它们扩大金融版图,并提供一种向数百万客户引荐比特币的简单途径。当然,这仅仅是一家之言。(财富中文网)
译者:任文科
I’ve been thinking about a question popular in Silicon Valley investor circles a few years back—“Are you a feature, product or business?”—and how it might apply to the glut of so-called challenger banks competing for U.S. customers.
Challenger banks—some call them digital banks or neobanks—took off several years ago by exploiting customer frustration with the abusive fees and lousy mobile experience offered by incumbents. The upstarts grew by means of asset-light operations (no branches, no tellers) and a savvy strategy of acquiring customers by social media and word-of-mouth.
The most prominent of the challengers is Chime, which recently notched a $14.5 billion valuation, but other would-be disruptors include Varo, Revolut, N26, Monzo, Dave, HMBradley and MoneyLion. The list goes on.
The question I have is how many of these names will be around two years from now. My hunch is not many. Going back to the “feature, product or business” query, a lot of these players look a lot more like features than full-blown financial companies. The perks that once defined them, like overdraft notifications or spangled debit cards, have been copied not only by their upstart competitors but some old line banks too.
Meanwhile, their business model faces major headwinds. In an astute essay, Andreessen Horowitz notes that the Federal Reserve’s low rate policy means it’s no longer viable to offer high interest savings rates to poach new customers. The venture capital firm also notes that the pool of clients that can be acquired on the cheap is shrinking, while fewer of those customers are transferring their direct deposits over to challenger banks.
So how are all these upstarts going to make money? The most likely answer is they’re not. Challenger banks can earn a trickle of revenue from merchants when customers swipe their debit cards, but not enough to thrive in the long term. To be a business not a feature, they will have to do what successful banks have always done: take deposits and loan them out at a profit. But that’s no easy feat given that competitors already have their hooks in the most credit-worthy customers, and that the regulatory costs of being a full-blown lender are steep. So what happens next?
“It’s a really crowded space, and I think a lot of the smaller players will go out of business. Those with a good customer base will get acquired,” says Robert Le, an analyst with PitchBook. He predicts we’ll soon see a winnowing in which the likes of Chime and SoFi obtain a federal banking charter (Varo already has one) and become fixtures of the financial world, while the minnows disappear or get gobbled up for their, well, features.
Makes sense to me. One more thing to ponder: If Le is right and consolidation is coming, will any of the acquirers include the big crypto players like Coinbase, Kraken or Gemini? These companies have been active in M&A, and snapping up a neobank could let them expand their financial footprint and provide an easy way to introduce millions of customers to Bitcoin. Just saying.