谁能决定美国大选结果？可能要看宾夕法尼亚州的老年人
Shawan Tully
2020-11-02
一群老年选民聚集在宾夕法尼亚州新镇广场，计划为民主党总统候选人，也是前任副总统拜登展开基层竞选活动。图片来源：MARK MAKELA—THE WASHINGTON POST/GETTY IMAGES
谁能成为美国的下一任总统，很可能要看摇摆州的一群人怎么选。
这个群体就是宾夕法尼亚州很可能会参与投票的老年人，约有150万人。2016年他们曾大力支持特朗普，如今却对其疫情应对非常不满。最新民调显示，支持拜登的银发族规模相当庞大，拜登在65岁及更年长人群中的支持率领先约10个百分点，接近四年前特朗普的优势。“宾州老年人的选票极其重要，”阿伦敦穆伦伯格学院政治学教授兼舆论研究所主任克里斯托弗•鲍里克表示。“本次选举的大背景是，如果共和党人没法获得老年人支持，就很难获胜。特朗普当然还有机会，但最后冲刺阶段老年人选票流失将造成极为严峻的挑战。”
简单来说就是，关键州掌握着通往白宫的钥匙。“宾州能决定胜负，”鲍里克说,“哪怕其他情况我一点也不了解，如果11月4日你告诉我特朗普拿下了宾州，我敢确信他大选获胜了。“为了获得宾州支持从而锁定连任，特朗普必须一张选票一张选票地拉回来，毕竟宾州老年人已纷纷倒向拜登。因此，特朗普需要在西部产油区以及费城周边农村和郊区掀起红色大潮，而且得票数要远远超过2016年。
特朗普正在宾州这块必争之地上全力以赴，攻势十分猛烈，他希望最后几天能以闪电战拿下。10月26日，从中南部农村地区的马丁斯堡到费城北边工业带的阿伦敦，特朗普在宾州举行了至少三场超过一小时的拉票活动，首要争取对象就是老年人。在每一站，他讲话主题都是对手在破坏老年人最需要的两项福利。”（拜登）总想削减社保和医保力度……伯尼•桑德斯早已暴露了企图，”特朗普在阿伦敦大喊。
四年前特朗普拿下宾州时优势其实很微弱，只多出4.4万票或0.76%，也是1840年以来的差距最小的一次。老年人群体是当年特朗普获胜的基础。投票后民调显示，在65岁及更年长选民中，他获得了54%的选票，比对手多出约15万张。老年人选民在关键州格外重要，原因有二。首先，各大战场中宾州老年人占比18.6%，除了佛罗里达州（20.6%）比其他地方比例都高。第二，老年人投票更积极，投票人数远远超过其在选民中所占人口比例。“大选期间，宾州投票选民里可能有23%或24%是老年人，所以老年选民非争取不可。” 鲍里克说。
如今，特朗普无论在民调还是投注赔率上都大大落后于拜登。穆伦伯格舆论研究所最新调研显示，拜登领先7个百分点，二人比例为51%对44%。RealClearPolitics最新八次民调平均值49.6%对45.8%，拜登领先3.8个百分点。而特朗普在RealClear六个政治投注网站的总排名为35%，拜登则是64%，这意味着投注者看好拜登与看好特朗普比例接近2比1。在PredictIt市场（不包括在RealClear数据中），10月27日中午特朗普的胜率略高于41%。在PredictIt上，从特朗普在宾州的表现来看成功入主白宫的机会是39%，也可由此看出关键州的重要性。事实上，宾州选情起落对特朗普连任几率的影响比其他因素都要大。
虽然特朗普在宾州获胜的机会很小，运气却是越来越好。10月21日，第二次辩论前一天，PredictIt上拜登与特朗普胜率还是68%对32%，说明辩论后特朗普将差距缩小了8个百分点达到40%。RealClear收集的民调中，特朗普也从10月13日的落后7个百分点追到目前的落后3.8个百分点。“第二场辩论帮特朗普在宾州挽回一程，”鲍里克说。“讨论水压开采时，拜登只能防守。”不过，即便拜登呼吁结束石油天然气行业方面有失言，特朗普也在阿伦敦到伊利狂暴出击，种种努力能否拉回2016年曾帮他绝地逢生如今却纷纷倒戈的老年人，现在还说不准。
特朗普陷入困境的首要原因是，老年人认为他对疫情处理不力。最新的穆伦伯格调查中，20%的受访者说特朗普最大问题就是疫情应对，15%的人提到医保。“老年人患新冠的人数要多得多，”鲍里克说,“所以在老年人群体中，特朗普疫情防控的评价极为负面。医疗方面评价也很低。”在穆伦伯格民调中，65岁及以上的人中，不认同特朗普的表现的人占到了60%，只有34%的人表示认同。被问及是否会投票给特朗普或拜登时，只有39%的老年人选择特朗普，拜登领先20个百分点。相比之下，30岁至64岁的选民对特朗普的支持率高出5个百分点，二人比例为50%对45%。如果特朗普在宾州老年人中的民调接近2016年，赢下该州的几率会更高，入主白宫的机会很可能更大。
如果想了解特朗普如何才能拿下宾州，不妨回顾一下2016年他的获胜路径。当年希拉里•克林顿在费城和城市周边四个县，公鹿、切斯特、特拉华和蒙哥马利的表现与巴拉克•奥巴马相当接近。她在匹兹堡所在的阿利根尼，以及分别位于斯克兰顿和哈里斯堡的拉卡瓦纳和多芬也轻松获胜。
在石油资源丰富的西南部，近年来选举中越发倾向于支持共和党，特朗普获得了很高投票率从而取得了微弱的胜利。他在费耶特、格林、华盛顿和威斯特摩兰郡赢得了65%的选票，超过希拉里11.8万票。比起2012年米特•罗姆尼胜出的票数还多了5.6万票。此外，特朗普还赢得了铁锈地带的代表伊利，顺利拿下2012年奥巴马曾以1.9万票优势获胜的地方。他在维尔克斯-巴里所在的卢泽恩以2.6万票优势实现逆转。特朗普在斯克兰顿地区形势也好得多，将民主党在拉卡瓦纳的领先优势从2.7万票缩小到2500票。特朗普在农村、铁锈地带和水压开采地区发动了红色袭击，压制了希拉里在费城和匹兹堡的优秀表现。
2016年，宾州总共有611万人参加了投票。在费城、周边四县和匹兹堡的阿利根尼，希拉里共赢得261.5万张选票中的169.3万张，占65%。特朗普则横扫67个县中的56个，在制造业、产油区和农业区的350万选民中获得59%选票。
现在还很难预测大选日有多少老年人会投票给特朗普。工业区或水力开采地区的一些老年人原本因疫情对特朗普不满，但也有可能不满意拜登对能源领域的态度，从而不情愿地转投特朗普。如果特朗普在老年人中获得选票的情况比穆伦伯格民调预测好一些，从四年前的54%降到45%，那么他与2015年相比会少得13.5万票。当年他只多出4.4万票，现在需要补9万多票才能勉强打赢。
特朗普要想获胜，获得的票数要比2016年高得多，而且要超过四年前未投票而这次积极邮寄缺席或现场投票的民主党票数。如果特朗普在坚定支持的地区能在350万张选票里多收获8%，再次赢得60%的选票，就能比2016年多得17万张选票。
但即便如此，他也只能在民主党投票没有同步上升的情况下才有机会获胜。鲍里克认为不太可能。据他预测，本次共和党和共和党投票人数都将远远超过2016年。”共和党人受到特朗普的鼓舞，民主党人对拜登不感兴趣但为了反对特朗普也要投票，”他说。鲍里克怀疑，特朗普新争取到的选票可能很难超过超过同样增加的费城和匹兹堡郊区投票选民，2016年这群人懒得投票，这次却愿意为了拜登挺身而出。鲍里克说，特朗普唯一的出路是在老年人中挽回一些损失，同时在己方票仓收获选票。
鲍里克说：“他因为疫情问题惹怒了老年人，所以势头削弱，最近确诊病例大爆发可以说是雪上加霜。“ 他认为特朗普还是有机会获胜的，“如果能做几点调整就可以，特朗普的能量仍然强大。” 他表示。关键州民调差距也确实在收窄。如果特朗普能顺利应付四年前支持他的老年人的倒戈，就能在关键州上演比四年前更大的惊喜，从而有机会在以伟大战场命名之处继续主政四年。（财富中文网）
译者：夏林
谁能成为美国的下一任总统，很可能要看摇摆州的一群人怎么选。
这个群体就是宾夕法尼亚州很可能会参与投票的老年人，约有150万人。2016年他们曾大力支持特朗普，如今却对其疫情应对非常不满。最新民调显示，支持拜登的银发族规模相当庞大，拜登在65岁及更年长人群中的支持率领先约10个百分点，接近四年前特朗普的优势。“宾州老年人的选票极其重要，”阿伦敦穆伦伯格学院政治学教授兼舆论研究所主任克里斯托弗•鲍里克表示。“本次选举的大背景是，如果共和党人没法获得老年人支持，就很难获胜。特朗普当然还有机会，但最后冲刺阶段老年人选票流失将造成极为严峻的挑战。”
简单来说就是，关键州掌握着通往白宫的钥匙。“宾州能决定胜负，”鲍里克说,“哪怕其他情况我一点也不了解，如果11月4日你告诉我特朗普拿下了宾州，我敢确信他大选获胜了。“为了获得宾州支持从而锁定连任，特朗普必须一张选票一张选票地拉回来，毕竟宾州老年人已纷纷倒向拜登。因此，特朗普需要在西部产油区以及费城周边农村和郊区掀起红色大潮，而且得票数要远远超过2016年。
特朗普正在宾州这块必争之地上全力以赴，攻势十分猛烈，他希望最后几天能以闪电战拿下。10月26日，从中南部农村地区的马丁斯堡到费城北边工业带的阿伦敦，特朗普在宾州举行了至少三场超过一小时的拉票活动，首要争取对象就是老年人。在每一站，他讲话主题都是对手在破坏老年人最需要的两项福利。”（拜登）总想削减社保和医保力度……伯尼•桑德斯早已暴露了企图，”特朗普在阿伦敦大喊。
四年前特朗普拿下宾州时优势其实很微弱，只多出4.4万票或0.76%，也是1840年以来的差距最小的一次。老年人群体是当年特朗普获胜的基础。投票后民调显示，在65岁及更年长选民中，他获得了54%的选票，比对手多出约15万张。老年人选民在关键州格外重要，原因有二。首先，各大战场中宾州老年人占比18.6%，除了佛罗里达州（20.6%）比其他地方比例都高。第二，老年人投票更积极，投票人数远远超过其在选民中所占人口比例。“大选期间，宾州投票选民里可能有23%或24%是老年人，所以老年选民非争取不可。” 鲍里克说。
如今，特朗普无论在民调还是投注赔率上都大大落后于拜登。穆伦伯格舆论研究所最新调研显示，拜登领先7个百分点，二人比例为51%对44%。RealClearPolitics最新八次民调平均值49.6%对45.8%，拜登领先3.8个百分点。而特朗普在RealClear六个政治投注网站的总排名为35%，拜登则是64%，这意味着投注者看好拜登与看好特朗普比例接近2比1。在PredictIt市场（不包括在RealClear数据中），10月27日中午特朗普的胜率略高于41%。在PredictIt上，从特朗普在宾州的表现来看成功入主白宫的机会是39%，也可由此看出关键州的重要性。事实上，宾州选情起落对特朗普连任几率的影响比其他因素都要大。
虽然特朗普在宾州获胜的机会很小，运气却是越来越好。10月21日，第二次辩论前一天，PredictIt上拜登与特朗普胜率还是68%对32%，说明辩论后特朗普将差距缩小了8个百分点达到40%。RealClear收集的民调中，特朗普也从10月13日的落后7个百分点追到目前的落后3.8个百分点。“第二场辩论帮特朗普在宾州挽回一程，”鲍里克说。“讨论水压开采时，拜登只能防守。”不过，即便拜登呼吁结束石油天然气行业方面有失言，特朗普也在阿伦敦到伊利狂暴出击，种种努力能否拉回2016年曾帮他绝地逢生如今却纷纷倒戈的老年人，现在还说不准。
特朗普陷入困境的首要原因是，老年人认为他对疫情处理不力。最新的穆伦伯格调查中，20%的受访者说特朗普最大问题就是疫情应对，15%的人提到医保。“老年人患新冠的人数要多得多，”鲍里克说,“所以在老年人群体中，特朗普疫情防控的评价极为负面。医疗方面评价也很低。”在穆伦伯格民调中，65岁及以上的人中，不认同特朗普的表现的人占到了60%，只有34%的人表示认同。被问及是否会投票给特朗普或拜登时，只有39%的老年人选择特朗普，拜登领先20个百分点。相比之下，30岁至64岁的选民对特朗普的支持率高出5个百分点，二人比例为50%对45%。如果特朗普在宾州老年人中的民调接近2016年，赢下该州的几率会更高，入主白宫的机会很可能更大。
如果想了解特朗普如何才能拿下宾州，不妨回顾一下2016年他的获胜路径。当年希拉里•克林顿在费城和城市周边四个县，公鹿、切斯特、特拉华和蒙哥马利的表现与巴拉克•奥巴马相当接近。她在匹兹堡所在的阿利根尼，以及分别位于斯克兰顿和哈里斯堡的拉卡瓦纳和多芬也轻松获胜。
在石油资源丰富的西南部，近年来选举中越发倾向于支持共和党，特朗普获得了很高投票率从而取得了微弱的胜利。他在费耶特、格林、华盛顿和威斯特摩兰郡赢得了65%的选票，超过希拉里11.8万票。比起2012年米特•罗姆尼胜出的票数还多了5.6万票。此外，特朗普还赢得了铁锈地带的代表伊利，顺利拿下2012年奥巴马曾以1.9万票优势获胜的地方。他在维尔克斯-巴里所在的卢泽恩以2.6万票优势实现逆转。特朗普在斯克兰顿地区形势也好得多，将民主党在拉卡瓦纳的领先优势从2.7万票缩小到2500票。特朗普在农村、铁锈地带和水压开采地区发动了红色袭击，压制了希拉里在费城和匹兹堡的优秀表现。
2016年，宾州总共有611万人参加了投票。在费城、周边四县和匹兹堡的阿利根尼，希拉里共赢得261.5万张选票中的169.3万张，占65%。特朗普则横扫67个县中的56个，在制造业、产油区和农业区的350万选民中获得59%选票。
现在还很难预测大选日有多少老年人会投票给特朗普。工业区或水力开采地区的一些老年人原本因疫情对特朗普不满，但也有可能不满意拜登对能源领域的态度，从而不情愿地转投特朗普。如果特朗普在老年人中获得选票的情况比穆伦伯格民调预测好一些，从四年前的54%降到45%，那么他与2015年相比会少得13.5万票。当年他只多出4.4万票，现在需要补9万多票才能勉强打赢。
特朗普要想获胜，获得的票数要比2016年高得多，而且要超过四年前未投票而这次积极邮寄缺席或现场投票的民主党票数。如果特朗普在坚定支持的地区能在350万张选票里多收获8%，再次赢得60%的选票，就能比2016年多得17万张选票。
但即便如此，他也只能在民主党投票没有同步上升的情况下才有机会获胜。鲍里克认为不太可能。据他预测，本次共和党和共和党投票人数都将远远超过2016年。”共和党人受到特朗普的鼓舞，民主党人对拜登不感兴趣但为了反对特朗普也要投票，”他说。鲍里克怀疑，特朗普新争取到的选票可能很难超过超过同样增加的费城和匹兹堡郊区投票选民，2016年这群人懒得投票，这次却愿意为了拜登挺身而出。鲍里克说，特朗普唯一的出路是在老年人中挽回一些损失，同时在己方票仓收获选票。
鲍里克说：“他因为疫情问题惹怒了老年人，所以势头削弱，最近确诊病例大爆发可以说是雪上加霜。“ 他认为特朗普还是有机会获胜的，“如果能做几点调整就可以，特朗普的能量仍然强大。” 他表示。关键州民调差距也确实在收窄。如果特朗普能顺利应付四年前支持他的老年人的倒戈，就能在关键州上演比四年前更大的惊喜，从而有机会在以伟大战场命名之处继续主政四年。（财富中文网）
译者：夏林
A group of older voters assembles to plan grass-roots campaigning for Democratic presidential nominee former Vice President Joe Biden in Newtown Square, Pa.
MARK MAKELA—THE WASHINGTON POST/GETTY IMAGES
It's highly possible that a single demographic, in a single swing state, will determine who becomes America's next President.
That group is the roughly 1.5 million seniors in Pennsylvania likely to vote, a citizenry that went big for Trump in 2016 but is hugely unhappy with his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. Recent polls show a gray wave toward Biden so gigantic that, right now, he's expected to carry the 65-and-over crowd by what could equal Trump's 10 point margin four years ago. "The senior vote is incredibly important in Pennsylvania," says Christopher Borick, political science professor at Muhlenberg College in Allentown, and director of its Institute of Public Opinion. "The big story of this election is that as a Republican, you can't afford to lose ground with seniors and expect to win. Trump still has a path to victory, but the loss of seniors presents an overwhelming challenge in the home stretch."
Put simply, it's a good bet that one state holds the key to the White House, and that's the Keystone State. "We're the tipping state," says Borick. "If I knew nothing else, and you told me Trump won Pennsylvania on Nov. 4, I'd feel solid he won the presidency." To carry Pennsylvania and gain a lock on reelection, Trump must make up, ballot for ballot, for the tens of thousands of votes he'll lose because seniors are swinging to Biden. Hence, Trump will need to rally a red wave in the western oil tier and rural and suburban areas outside of the Philadelphia metro that far surpasses the big numbers he garnered in 2016.
Trump is going all-in on Pennsylvania, blitzing this must-win territory in the final days harder than any other battleground. On Oct. 26 he hosted no fewer than three, hour-plus rallies there that took him from Martinsburg in the south-central rural tier to Allentown in the industrial belt north of Philadelphia. Seniors are a prime target. At every stop, a banner theme was his opponent's alleged efforts to undermine the two entitlements dearest to the elderly. "[Biden] repeatedly tried to cut Social Security and Medicare...and Bernie Sanders is the one who exposed him on that," Trump trumpeted in Allentown.
Four years ago, Trump took Pennsylvania by a slender 44,000 votes or 0.76%, the narrowest margin since 1840. The senior bloc formed a cornerstone of his victory. According to exit polls, he carried 54% of the 65-and-over demo, prevailing by roughly 150,000 votes. Seniors are an especially important group in the Keystone State for two reasons. First, of all the battlegrounds, Pennsylvania at 18.6% has a higher proportion of those folks than any state besides Florida (at 20.6%). Second, seniors vote in much bigger numbers than their share of the electorate. "In a presidential election in Pennsylvania, of the entire electorate, 23% or 24% can be seniors," notes Borick. "That's why seniors are such a coveted demographic."
Today, Trump is trailing Biden by a significant margin both in the polls and betting odds. The latest Muhlenberg Institute of Public Opinion survey has Biden ahead by 7 points, 51% to 44%. The RealClearPolitics average of the eight most recent polls puts Biden's lead at 3.8 points, 49.6% to 45.8%, and Trump's overall standing on the RealClear roster of six political gaming sites is 35% to Biden's 64%, meaning the gamblers rate Biden a nearly 2-to-1 favorite. On the PredictIt exchange (not included in the RealClear numbers), Trump's odds at midday on Oct. 27 were a bit better at 41%. It's a gauge of the Keystone State's importance that on PredictIt, his chances in that one battleground mirror his 39% shot at taking the White House. In fact, it's the ebb and flow in Pennsylvania, more than any other factor, that drive the ups and downs in the President's odds for reelection.
Though the President is still a long shot in Pennsylvania, his fortunes are improving. On October 21, the day before the second debate, he lagged Biden on PredictIt 68% to 32%, meaning he's narrowed that gap by 8 points to reach 40%. In RealClear's collection of polls, he's climbed from down 7 points on Oct. 13 to the current shortfall of 3.8. "The debate was a positive for the President in Pennsylvania," says Borick. "He put Biden on the defensive on fracking." Still, it's not clear that Biden's gaffe in calling for an end to the oil and gas industries, and Trump's manic barnstorming from Allentown to Erie, are enough to compensate for the shocking erosion of support from the seniors who carried him to an historic upset in 2016.
Trump's in that hole for an overriding reason: What the elderly perceive as his botched handling of the pandemic. In the latest Muhlenberg survey, 20% of respondents said that the most important issue was COVID-19, and 15% cited health care. "The number for COVID is far higher among seniors," says Borick. "Among that group, Trump gets horrible ratings on his handling of the pandemic. He also gets bad ratings on health care." In the Muhlenberg poll, 60% of folks 65 or older disapproved of Trump's performance, versus 34% who approved. Asked if they'll vote for Trump or Biden, only 39% of seniors picked the President, giving Biden a 20-point advantage. In comparison, voters aged 30 to 64 preferred Trump by 5 points, 50% to 45%. If Trump were polling anywhere close to his 2016 numbers among graying Pennsylvanians, he'd be in a much stronger position to carry the state, and probably a favorite to claim the White House.
To grasp what it would take for Trump to take Pennsylvania, it helps to retrace his path in 2016. Hillary Clinton pretty much matched Barack Obama's showing in Philadelphia and the metro's four surrounding counties: Bucks, Chester, Delaware, and Montgomery. She also won handily in Allegheny, home to Pittsburgh, and in Lackawanna and Dauphin, whose respective hubs are Scranton and Harrisburg.
Trump notched his narrow win by getting a huge turnout in the oil-rich southwestern tier that's been trending heavily Republican in recent elections. He won 65% of the vote in Fayette, Greene, Washington, and Westmoreland counties, beating Clinton's total by 118,000. That's 56,000 better than Mitt Romney's margin in 2012. In addition, Trump flipped Rust Belt icon Erie County, capturing a prize that went to Obama by 19,000 votes in 2012. He scored a stunning reversal in Luzerne, whose base is Wilkes-Barre, winning by 26,000. He also polled a lot better in the Scranton area, narrowing the Democrats' margin in Lackawanna County to 2,500 from 27,000. Trump unleashed a red onslaught in rural, Rust Belt, and fracking regions that edged Clinton's strong showing in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh.
All told, 6.11 million Pennsylvanians voted in 2016. In Philadelphia, the four surrounding counties and Pittsburgh's Allegheny, Clinton won a total of 1.693 million of 2.615 million ballots cast, or 65%. Trump swept 56 of 67 counties, taking 59% of the 3.5 million voters in those chiefly manufacturing, oil patch, and farming regions.
It's hard to predict what Trump's senior share will be on Election Day. It's possible that a number of elders in the industrial or fracking regions that revile the President on COVID might turn on Biden because of his stance on energy, and reluctantly support Trump once again. If Trump's senior share goes from 54% four years ago to 45%, better than the Muhlenberg poll is forecasting, he'd have a deficit of 135,000 votes versus 2015. Since he won by just 44,000, he'd have to make up just over 90,000 to eke out a win.
Trump can triumph only if the increase in his turnout over 2016 is much greater than the number of Democrats who didn't vote four years ago but this time post absentee ballots and flock to the polls. If Trump can get an extra 8% of the 3.5 million in the regions that went for him heavily, and again win 60% of their votes, he gains by 170,000 votes over 2016.
But even then, he wins only if Democratic turnout doesn't rise nearly as much. Borick doesn't see that happening. He predicts that both Republican and Democratic voters will vote in far bigger numbers than in 2016. "The Republicans are energized by Trump, while the Democrats aren't excited about Biden but galvanized by opposition to Trump," he says. Borick doubts that Trump's extra recruits can exceed a surge in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh suburbanites—folks who yawned in 2016 and stand up for Biden this time—by enough for the President to win. His only path is to recoup some of his losses with seniors, and at the same time marshal a gigantic turnout from his base, says Borick.
"The way he's antagonized seniors over COVID has blunted his momentum," says Borick. "The timing of the latest explosion in cases couldn't be worse for him." He thinks Trump can still win. "He could do it if he moves just a few points," he says. "Trump's energy is there." Indeed, the Keystone State polls are tightening a bit. If Trump can overcome the revolt of the seniors who supported him so overwhelming four short years ago, he'll orchestrate a Keystone State surprise even bigger than the last one, and probably get four more years at the address named for that great battleground.
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