在11月1日的竞选集会上,特朗普说,大选之夜“我们将与律师团队站在一起”——他一直有意借助法院的力量,以实现连任。在他为之所作的努力中,最显而易见的就是提名艾米•康尼•巴雷特来接替金斯伯格大法官的职位。他也发表了一系列声明,来暗示自己的这种主张。
九月,金斯伯格大法官逝世后,特朗普表示:“我认为继任者的事宜最终将由最高法院决定。对我们来说,‘九位大法官’的制度是非常重要的。”——这也暗示,特朗普会确保自己提名的继任大法官会在未来潜在的纠纷中,站在自己这一边。
这样的言论无疑将司法机构描绘成了又一个两党之间的政治博弈场——而现在,这种政治力量已经渗透进美国的各个领域,泛滥得使人麻木。对某些民主党人来说,特朗普的言论引发了人们的担忧——也就是说,即使他在选票数量上失利,也可能通过自己在法院的力量赢得这场选举。
而现实更加微妙:法院也会在本周的大选中发挥作用,这并不是什么秘密:因为从历史上看,两党在选举日前后,都会发起一系列诉讼。
保守派律师、政治作家亨利•奥尔森曾发表过一些备受推崇的选举预测。他说:“可能在一些地方法院,官司已经开打了。可以预见,在今天和本周后几天,两党会采取更多的法律行动。”
奥尔森说,这些诉讼历来都涉及两党冲突的方方面面:从民主党提出的紧急状况请求,到让投票站向共和党人开放、阻止民主党人在邮寄选票中动手脚。
尽管选举中产生诉讼可能早已稀松平常,但今年的选举还是有所不同:特朗普已在竞选活动中明确表示,要尽可能多地压制选票,并通过诉讼来质疑这些选票的有效性。
长期担任共和党选举律师的本•金斯伯格在《华盛顿邮报》最近的社论中描述了这一策略:“特朗普的唯一解决方案是,花费数百万美元、投入全部精力,使选民失去投票权:首先是试图通过联邦力量向各州法院施压,限制疫情期间以及现在这一最后阶段的邮寄选票,以阻碍那些不太可能支持他的选民投出的有效选票。”
在实际操作中,他支持宾夕法尼亚这一重要的摇摆州通过了一项法律:禁止在选举前对邮寄票数进行计数,同时还要求停止对选举日之后收到的选票进行统计——即使该州的法律明确规定,11月6日之前收到的选票都算数。
两党试图阻止人们行使投票权的策略,在历史上早就存在。但是与前人的努力相比,特朗普竞选活动中的操盘方式仍有所不同。
根据新书《感谢你的投票》的作者艾琳•盖格-史密斯的说法,过去,人们用来压制投票的做法常常依靠那些明显具有歧视性的法律,例如要求选民缴纳人头税,或规定印第安原住民没有投票权等。 但自从1965年通过的《投票权法》将这些做法规定为非法以来,共和党人就已开始采取技术性措施,例如反对邮寄选票,以减少选民的投票率——这些措施仍给人一种“剥夺公民权”的感觉。
“有色人种早有体会,现在其他人种也要面对这个问题,也有可能会被剥夺选举权。”盖格•史密斯说道。
尽管特朗普竞选团队想通过法院公然压制拜登选票,但这种策略不一定能奏效,因为仅仅简单而笼统地上诉“选举被操纵”、“选举不公平”是没用的,他们必须举出一个具体例证。近几十年来,胜诉案例也唯有2000年小布什诉戈尔一案。
当年小布什以5:4的大法官票数胜诉民主党候选人戈尔,弗洛里达州的争议选票最终被排除计算。此案也一直都是美国民主党的心病,不少人担忧拜登也会在接下来几周重蹈覆辙。但奥尔森表示,这种可能性很小,当年法国在断案后曾明确表示过不会将此案作为日后的参考案例。
于此同时,正如一位专栏作家所指出的那样,2000年的裁决是建立在“无法分出胜负”的前提之下的,大法官的决定是为了结束这种不确定性,尽快确立新总统。可能特朗普也想在今年重演一次历史,即制造出一种混乱而不确定的局面,但他本人并不能控制具体走向。这种情况有一个先决条件——特朗普和拜登在宾夕法尼亚等关键州的票数必须咬的非常紧。
另外,联邦法院的几位大法官以及联邦法院的司法体系也并非虚设,奥尔森指出,虽然媒体可能会把大法官渲染成特朗普的政治工具,但其实他们必然要受到法律约束。
“法官们也知道自己不是超人,无法操纵一切。”如果案件存疑,其裁决结果可能会被更高一级的法院驳回,这样会很尴尬,奥尔森补充道。
本周德克萨斯州的案件就是最好的例证。受疫情影响,德州当地官员允许选民驾车到票站进行车上投票,对此,有共和党人先后入禀德州法院指控该项行为并要求撤销选票。虽然处理该案件的联邦法官是一名坚定的保守派,但他还是立即驳回了案件,并未向自己所在的政治立场偏移。
即便是美国联邦最高法院,其司法原则也不会改变。奥尔森还指出,虽然最高法院的任务是在几周内快速对紧急案件作出裁决,但首席大法官罗伯茨一直都反对用司法权来解决政治纠纷。在处理各州内部法律问题之时,最高法院也往往会参考并遵循州法院的做法,换而言之,最高法院不太会做出一个出人意料的决定,也不会无端倾向特朗普。
至于特朗普钦定的新任大法官巴雷特,奥尔森预测其不会愿意以一个“备受争议”的案件开始她在最高法院的职业生涯,也就是说,她可能不会愿意见到一个5:4的票选局面。当然,这场最高法院之争可能从一开始就不会发生,如果特朗普和拜登的选票差距明显,这一切也就无从谈起。
总而言之,即便特朗普最终借助最高法院逆转大选结果,最高法院可能也不会直接助他一臂之力。“司法不会服务于政治。”奥尔森说道,他强调,司法政治化的可能性越大,风险就越大。(财富中文网)
编译:陈聪聪,陈怡轩
在11月1日的竞选集会上,特朗普说,大选之夜“我们将与律师团队站在一起”——他一直有意借助法院的力量,以实现连任。在他为之所作的努力中,最显而易见的就是提名艾米•康尼•巴雷特来接替金斯伯格大法官的职位。他也发表了一系列声明,来暗示自己的这种主张。
九月,金斯伯格大法官逝世后,特朗普表示:“我认为继任者的事宜最终将由最高法院决定。对我们来说,‘九位大法官’的制度是非常重要的。”——这也暗示,特朗普会确保自己提名的继任大法官会在未来潜在的纠纷中,站在自己这一边。
这样的言论无疑将司法机构描绘成了又一个两党之间的政治博弈场——而现在,这种政治力量已经渗透进美国的各个领域,泛滥得使人麻木。对某些民主党人来说,特朗普的言论引发了人们的担忧——也就是说,即使他在选票数量上失利,也可能通过自己在法院的力量赢得这场选举。
而现实更加微妙:法院也会在本周的大选中发挥作用,这并不是什么秘密:因为从历史上看,两党在选举日前后,都会发起一系列诉讼。
保守派律师、政治作家亨利•奥尔森曾发表过一些备受推崇的选举预测。他说:“可能在一些地方法院,官司已经开打了。可以预见,在今天和本周后几天,两党会采取更多的法律行动。”
奥尔森说,这些诉讼历来都涉及两党冲突的方方面面:从民主党提出的紧急状况请求,到让投票站向共和党人开放、阻止民主党人在邮寄选票中动手脚。
尽管选举中产生诉讼可能早已稀松平常,但今年的选举还是有所不同:特朗普已在竞选活动中明确表示,要尽可能多地压制选票,并通过诉讼来质疑这些选票的有效性。
长期担任共和党选举律师的本•金斯伯格在《华盛顿邮报》最近的社论中描述了这一策略:“特朗普的唯一解决方案是,花费数百万美元、投入全部精力,使选民失去投票权:首先是试图通过联邦力量向各州法院施压,限制疫情期间以及现在这一最后阶段的邮寄选票,以阻碍那些不太可能支持他的选民投出的有效选票。”
在实际操作中,他支持宾夕法尼亚这一重要的摇摆州通过了一项法律:禁止在选举前对邮寄票数进行计数,同时还要求停止对选举日之后收到的选票进行统计——即使该州的法律明确规定,11月6日之前收到的选票都算数。
两党试图阻止人们行使投票权的策略,在历史上早就存在。但是与前人的努力相比,特朗普竞选活动中的操盘方式仍有所不同。
根据新书《感谢你的投票》的作者艾琳•盖格-史密斯的说法,过去,人们用来压制投票的做法常常依靠那些明显具有歧视性的法律,例如要求选民缴纳人头税,或规定印第安原住民没有投票权等。 但自从1965年通过的《投票权法》将这些做法规定为非法以来,共和党人就已开始采取技术性措施,例如反对邮寄选票,以减少选民的投票率——这些措施仍给人一种“剥夺公民权”的感觉。
“有色人种早有体会,现在其他人种也要面对这个问题,也有可能会被剥夺选举权。”盖格•史密斯说道。
尽管特朗普竞选团队想通过法院公然压制拜登选票,但这种策略不一定能奏效,因为仅仅简单而笼统地上诉“选举被操纵”、“选举不公平”是没用的,他们必须举出一个具体例证。近几十年来,胜诉案例也唯有2000年小布什诉戈尔一案。
当年小布什以5:4的大法官票数胜诉民主党候选人戈尔,弗洛里达州的争议选票最终被排除计算。此案也一直都是美国民主党的心病,不少人担忧拜登也会在接下来几周重蹈覆辙。但奥尔森表示,这种可能性很小,当年法国在断案后曾明确表示过不会将此案作为日后的参考案例。
于此同时,正如一位专栏作家所指出的那样,2000年的裁决是建立在“无法分出胜负”的前提之下的,大法官的决定是为了结束这种不确定性,尽快确立新总统。可能特朗普也想在今年重演一次历史,即制造出一种混乱而不确定的局面,但他本人并不能控制具体走向。这种情况有一个先决条件——特朗普和拜登在宾夕法尼亚等关键州的票数必须咬的非常紧。
另外,联邦法院的几位大法官以及联邦法院的司法体系也并非虚设,奥尔森指出,虽然媒体可能会把大法官渲染成特朗普的政治工具,但其实他们必然要受到法律约束。
“法官们也知道自己不是超人,无法操纵一切。”如果案件存疑,其裁决结果可能会被更高一级的法院驳回,这样会很尴尬,奥尔森补充道。
本周德克萨斯州的案件就是最好的例证。受疫情影响,德州当地官员允许选民驾车到票站进行车上投票,对此,有共和党人先后入禀德州法院指控该项行为并要求撤销选票。虽然处理该案件的联邦法官是一名坚定的保守派,但他还是立即驳回了案件,并未向自己所在的政治立场偏移。
即便是美国联邦最高法院,其司法原则也不会改变。奥尔森还指出,虽然最高法院的任务是在几周内快速对紧急案件作出裁决,但首席大法官罗伯茨一直都反对用司法权来解决政治纠纷。在处理各州内部法律问题之时,最高法院也往往会参考并遵循州法院的做法,换而言之,最高法院不太会做出一个出人意料的决定,也不会无端倾向特朗普。
至于特朗普钦定的新任大法官巴雷特,奥尔森预测其不会愿意以一个“备受争议”的案件开始她在最高法院的职业生涯,也就是说,她可能不会愿意见到一个5:4的票选局面。当然,这场最高法院之争可能从一开始就不会发生,如果特朗普和拜登的选票差距明显,这一切也就无从谈起。
总而言之,即便特朗普最终借助最高法院逆转大选结果,最高法院可能也不会直接助他一臂之力。“司法不会服务于政治。”奥尔森说道,他强调,司法政治化的可能性越大,风险就越大。(财富中文网)
编译:陈聪聪,陈怡轩
President Trump told a campaign rally on Sunday that "we're going in with our lawyers" as early as election night. The remark is just the latest in a series of declarations by Trump that he expects the courts to help him secure an election victory—the most notable coming during his push to confirm Justice Amy Coney Barrett.
"I think this will end up in the Supreme Court. And I think it's very important we have nine justices," said Trump in September, implying that those he nominates to the bench will side with him in a potential dispute.
Such comments portray the judiciary as just one more forum for partisan politics at a time when the country is boiling over with them. And for some Democrats, Trump's words spark fears he could win the election in court even if he loses at the ballot box.
The reality is more nuanced. While the courts will play a role in this week's vote, there's nothing unusual about that since, historically, both Republicans and Democrats have filed a flurry of lawsuits around Election Day.
"There are likely lawsuits already over what’s happening in some county courthouses. You can expect a lot of legal action today and the rest of the week," says Henry Olsen, a conservative lawyer and political author who publishes a well-regarded election forecast.
Such lawsuits, Olsen says, have historically involved everything from emergency requests by Democrats to keep polling stations open late to Republicans challenging signatures on ballots.
While election lawsuits may be common, this year is nonetheless different in light of the Trump campaign pursuing an explicit plan to suppress as many votes as possible and use the resulting litigation to sow doubt about the election's validity.
Longtime GOP election lawyer Ben Ginsberg described this strategy in a recent editorial in the Washington Post: "[Trump's] only solution has been to launch an all-out, multimillion-dollar effort to disenfranchise voters—first by seeking to block state laws to ease voting during the pandemic, and now, in the final stages of the campaign, by challenging the ballots of individual voters unlikely to support him."
In practice, this means supporting a law in the critical swing state of Pennsylvania that bars the counting of mail-in votes prior to election, while also suing to halt the counting of ballots received after Election Day—even though the state's law makes clear ballots received by Nov. 6 will be counted.
Such tactics echo earlier eras when political parties sought to prevent people from exercising their right to vote. But there's a difference in how the Trump campaign is going about this compared to those previous efforts.
According to Erin Geiger-Smith, author of the new book Thank You for Voting, those seeking to suppress the vote used to rely on explicitly discriminatory laws, such as ones requiring voters to pay a poll tax or others that made Native Americans ineligible to vote. But since the Voting Rights Act of 1965, which made many such practices illegal, Republicans have turned to technical measures, such as disputing postmarked ballots, to reduce voter turnout—measures that can nonetheless feel like disenfranchisement.
"There's Black and brown people who’ve felt that way for a long time, and now a lot of other people are having to focus on this in ways they haven't before," says Geiger-Smith.
But despite the Trump campaign's attempt to enlist the courts in a blatant attempt to suppress voting, it doesn't mean the strategy will be effective. His campaign can't bring a generalized complaint to the Supreme Court that the election was "rigged" or "unfair." The campaign must point to a specific incident in a specific place—as occurred in 2000 when President George W. Bush's campaign persuaded the top court to halt counting of disputed ballots in Florida.
The Supreme Court's 5-4 ruling in Bush v. Gore has haunted Democrats and raised fears a similar result could transpire in the coming weeks. But Olsen says this is unlikely, in part because the justices made explicit in the decision that the ruling was not meant to set a precedent. Also, as one columnist notes, the 2000 decision came in response to a situation when it may have been impossible to know for sure who won the election—leading the justices to craft a ruling in order to end the uncertainty. While the Trump campaign may seek to create a similar climate of legal uncertainty—or outright chaos—this will only be possible in the event of a genuine nail-biter in Pennsylvania or another battleground state that could tip the Electoral College vote.
A final bulwark against Trump trying to game the court is the law itself and the judges who interpret it. Olsen notes that the media may cast judges as political actors, but, in reality, they are constrained by the laws and previous rulings.
"A judge that does his or her job knows that they don’t get to play Superman with a voting procedure," say Olsen, adding that judges know they can be overruled by a higher court, an outcome that many regard as embarrassing.
Olsen points to a ruling this week by a federal judge in Texas that came in response to a request to toss out thousands of ballots cast from cars. Even though the judge is known as a strident conservative, and though the case was brought by GOP operatives, he summarily dismissed it.
As for the Supreme Court, which would rule on any urgent cases within a matter of weeks, Olsen notes that Chief Justice Roberts has long been reluctant to settle political disputes with judicial power. Roberts and the other justices are also likely to follow the practice of granting deference to state courts when it comes to interpreting their own states' laws and constitution—a practice that makes it less likely the Supreme Court will hand down a thunderbolt ruling to award the election to Trump.
Meanwhile, Olsen predicts that Justice Barrett—who Trump has been casting as a ringer for his side in any dispute—will be deeply reluctant to begin her Supreme Court career by casting the deciding vote in a 5–4 case that settles the election. And of course, a high stakes Supreme Court fight is unlikely in the first place, especially if one candidate emerges with a clear majority of electoral votes.
All of this means that while Trump may use lawsuits to cast doubt on the legitimacy of the election, the courts are unlikely to directly help his cause. "There will be a lot more law than politics," says Olsen, though he adds the temptation for judges to get political will increase the higher the stakes become.