对许多美国人来说,在新冠疫情期间获取经济救助就像是在追逐地平线上的一个小点:当你靠得更近时,它会突然离你更远。
有些人从来没有领到过补助。哥伦比亚大学(Columbia University)在10月发布的研究报告显示,虽然《冠状病毒援助、救济和经济安全法案》(CARES Act)慷慨发放了2.2万亿美元的失业补助,但美国最贫困人群的经济状况目前却变得更差。研究人员表示,截至9月,“黑人和拉丁裔美国人的月贫困率分别为25.2%和25.8%,而白人的月贫困率只有12%。”
州政府繁琐的官僚手续、过时的计算机系统和有些州反福利的态度,导致许多人无法及时获得帮助。在佛罗里达等地,人们一直等到夏天才领到失业补助。佛罗里达州近四分之一人口是拉丁裔。结果导致当地人的账单逾期,食物银行前排起长龙,人们的财务状况每况愈下。Evercore ISI的政策经济学家厄尼·特德斯基告诉《财富》杂志,在人们终于领到补助之后,约三分之一被用于偿还债务;三分之一用于消费(主要是食物);三分之一被存入银行。7月31日,600美元额外失业补助到期,300美元工资损失援助项目也即将到期,这意味着人们将很快用光自己的储蓄。
与此同时,布鲁金斯学会(Brookings Institution)的经济学家加利·伯特里斯表示,美国经济目前主要依靠低收入家庭的消费支撑。他说:“消费下降幅度最大的是高收入群体。”
《财富》杂志采访的研究人员和经济学家表示,没有及时高效地集中提供救助,以及失业补助和其他救助措施错综复杂的手续,是给美国人造成严重经济损失的主要原因。
这种情况本可以避免。
在邻国加拿大,加拿大国民只要在联邦税务局的网站上在线填写好表格,三天后他们的银行账户中就会直接存入2,000加元。不列颠哥伦比亚大学(University of British Columbia)专门研究宪法与社会正义问题的法律教授马戈特·杨说:“有了这笔钱,人们就可以做到在疫情期间必须要做的事情,比如待在家里或者不坐公共汽车上班等。”
加拿大的援助计划名为“加拿大经济复苏福利”(Canadian Economic Recovery Benefit),惠及近900万人,占到总人口的近四分之一。从4月启动该计划以来,加拿大政府共发放了810亿加元(约合610亿美元)的福利金,并且发放时间能够追溯到3月15日。该计划于10月终止后,并入了改革后的失业保障制度。自雇人员和零工人员都被纳入了失业保障范围。
加拿大不是疫情期间的乌托邦,“加拿大经济复苏福利”计划也没有覆盖所有人。该计划最初针对的是完全失业人口;后来更新之后,月收入低于1,000加元的人员也符合该计划的资格。每月领取福利不足2,000加元的残疾人对此非常不满;他们现在有证据证明,他们以前领取的福利水平低于政府确定的最低生活工资。找不到暑期工作的学生在暑假每个月只能领到1,250加元,另外尤其是在农业和食品加工业的外来劳工当中爆发了新冠疫情,但加拿大各省的准备不足。女性受到新冠疫情的影响尤其严重,因为她们要承担更多在家教育子女和照顾老幼的责任。加拿大还向小企业提供了40,000加元免息应急贷款,推出了住房抵押贷款六个月延期还款计划,并且发布了驱赶租客临时禁令,这些措施当然能够解决燃眉之急,但它们也只是推迟了不可避免的冲突。
加拿大著名经济学家、阿特金森基金会未来工作者研究员阿迈恩·雅尼恩告诉《财富》杂志:“与美国相比,加拿大确实为更多国民提供了更多帮助,政策更加连贯。我们得到的回报是,到目前为止,加拿大的就业恢复更稳健,破产企业的数量更少。”今年9月的统计数据显示,加拿大的劳动力参与率为64.8%,而美国只有61.4%。此外,加拿大第三季度的经济增长速度比美国高出16个百分点。
加拿大的新冠肺炎感染者和死亡人数,在总人口中所占的比例更小。根据人口规模差异进行调整后,加拿大的死亡病例和确诊病例分别只有美国的三分之一和五分之一。这一结果要部分归功于加拿大的紧急补助措施,使人们可以更快居家隔离。医疗是加拿大社会保障网中最重要也是最显而易见的一部分。现在还无法确定加拿大的全民单一支付者医疗体系在应对疫情方面所发挥的作用。但波士顿大学(Boston University)的健康法、政策与管理副教授保罗·谢弗表示,数据显示在美国没有扩大医疗补助的州,人们的处境更糟糕,因为医疗保险与就业的关系更密切。
谢弗表示:“城市研究所(Urban Institute)的一些数据显示,在没有扩大医疗补助的州,一个家庭中失业的成年人失去保险的概率会提高近三倍。所以,在疫情期间你能得到怎样的支持,归根结底还是要看你住在哪里。”
但无论你身在何处,接下来每个人都要考虑如何管理债务和组织债务减免。将疫情期间的债务政治化,会导致各级政府的运行在未来几年出现动荡。
在美国,“不该动用公帑”的情绪非常强烈,这种情绪一直以来都是美国系统性削弱社会保障网络的基础。加州大学洛杉矶分校(UCLA)的马丁·吉伦斯教授在他的《美国人为什么讨厌福利制度》(Why Americans Hate Welfare)一书中提到,个人主义、经济上的利己主义、对于“不配”享受福利的人群的比喻以及种族主义等,形成了美国人对于通过税收进行财富再分配这种方式的态度。
加拿大确实有更强大的社会保障网和集体主义思维,但雅尼恩认为,由联邦政府持有疫情产生的债务而不是由个人承担,在经济上有合理的理由。
她说:“你当然可以说失业的家庭应该承担债务,但用这种方式承担债务的成本最高。”家庭要为债务支付更高的风险溢价,比如信用卡和信贷额度的利息等,而且最贫困的家庭往往借款成本越高,因为他们最有可能使用民间借贷,比如高息工资日贷款等。家庭债务在系统中存在的时间越长,所有人的情况就会变得越糟糕。
雅尼恩用债务成本对此进行了解释。她说:“家庭的借贷成本高于小企业;小企业的借贷成本高于大企业;大企业的借贷成本高于市政府;市政府的借贷成本高于省(或州)政府;省(或州)政府的借贷成本高于联邦政府。”
她继续说道:“由联邦政府偿还贷款和借贷的风险最低,所以在债务生态系统中,联邦政府的借贷成本最低。而由于疫情的原因,债务水平正在持续上升。所以,如果你是真正的财政保守派,你会希望债务系统向贷款机构支付最少的资金,这就需要由联邦政府来承担债务。”(财富中文网)
翻译:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
对许多美国人来说,在新冠疫情期间获取经济救助就像是在追逐地平线上的一个小点:当你靠得更近时,它会突然离你更远。
有些人从来没有领到过补助。哥伦比亚大学(Columbia University)在10月发布的研究报告显示,虽然《冠状病毒援助、救济和经济安全法案》(CARES Act)慷慨发放了2.2万亿美元的失业补助,但美国最贫困人群的经济状况目前却变得更差。研究人员表示,截至9月,“黑人和拉丁裔美国人的月贫困率分别为25.2%和25.8%,而白人的月贫困率只有12%。”
州政府繁琐的官僚手续、过时的计算机系统和有些州反福利的态度,导致许多人无法及时获得帮助。在佛罗里达等地,人们一直等到夏天才领到失业补助。佛罗里达州近四分之一人口是拉丁裔。结果导致当地人的账单逾期,食物银行前排起长龙,人们的财务状况每况愈下。Evercore ISI的政策经济学家厄尼·特德斯基告诉《财富》杂志,在人们终于领到补助之后,约三分之一被用于偿还债务;三分之一用于消费(主要是食物);三分之一被存入银行。7月31日,600美元额外失业补助到期,300美元工资损失援助项目也即将到期,这意味着人们将很快用光自己的储蓄。
与此同时,布鲁金斯学会(Brookings Institution)的经济学家加利·伯特里斯表示,美国经济目前主要依靠低收入家庭的消费支撑。他说:“消费下降幅度最大的是高收入群体。”
《财富》杂志采访的研究人员和经济学家表示,没有及时高效地集中提供救助,以及失业补助和其他救助措施错综复杂的手续,是给美国人造成严重经济损失的主要原因。
这种情况本可以避免。
在邻国加拿大,加拿大国民只要在联邦税务局的网站上在线填写好表格,三天后他们的银行账户中就会直接存入2,000加元。不列颠哥伦比亚大学(University of British Columbia)专门研究宪法与社会正义问题的法律教授马戈特·杨说:“有了这笔钱,人们就可以做到在疫情期间必须要做的事情,比如待在家里或者不坐公共汽车上班等。”
加拿大的援助计划名为“加拿大经济复苏福利”(Canadian Economic Recovery Benefit),惠及近900万人,占到总人口的近四分之一。从4月启动该计划以来,加拿大政府共发放了810亿加元(约合610亿美元)的福利金,并且发放时间能够追溯到3月15日。该计划于10月终止后,并入了改革后的失业保障制度。自雇人员和零工人员都被纳入了失业保障范围。
加拿大不是疫情期间的乌托邦,“加拿大经济复苏福利”计划也没有覆盖所有人。该计划最初针对的是完全失业人口;后来更新之后,月收入低于1,000加元的人员也符合该计划的资格。每月领取福利不足2,000加元的残疾人对此非常不满;他们现在有证据证明,他们以前领取的福利水平低于政府确定的最低生活工资。找不到暑期工作的学生在暑假每个月只能领到1,250加元,另外尤其是在农业和食品加工业的外来劳工当中爆发了新冠疫情,但加拿大各省的准备不足。女性受到新冠疫情的影响尤其严重,因为她们要承担更多在家教育子女和照顾老幼的责任。加拿大还向小企业提供了40,000加元免息应急贷款,推出了住房抵押贷款六个月延期还款计划,并且发布了驱赶租客临时禁令,这些措施当然能够解决燃眉之急,但它们也只是推迟了不可避免的冲突。
加拿大著名经济学家、阿特金森基金会未来工作者研究员阿迈恩·雅尼恩告诉《财富》杂志:“与美国相比,加拿大确实为更多国民提供了更多帮助,政策更加连贯。我们得到的回报是,到目前为止,加拿大的就业恢复更稳健,破产企业的数量更少。”今年9月的统计数据显示,加拿大的劳动力参与率为64.8%,而美国只有61.4%。此外,加拿大第三季度的经济增长速度比美国高出16个百分点。
加拿大的新冠肺炎感染者和死亡人数,在总人口中所占的比例更小。根据人口规模差异进行调整后,加拿大的死亡病例和确诊病例分别只有美国的三分之一和五分之一。这一结果要部分归功于加拿大的紧急补助措施,使人们可以更快居家隔离。医疗是加拿大社会保障网中最重要也是最显而易见的一部分。现在还无法确定加拿大的全民单一支付者医疗体系在应对疫情方面所发挥的作用。但波士顿大学(Boston University)的健康法、政策与管理副教授保罗·谢弗表示,数据显示在美国没有扩大医疗补助的州,人们的处境更糟糕,因为医疗保险与就业的关系更密切。
谢弗表示:“城市研究所(Urban Institute)的一些数据显示,在没有扩大医疗补助的州,一个家庭中失业的成年人失去保险的概率会提高近三倍。所以,在疫情期间你能得到怎样的支持,归根结底还是要看你住在哪里。”
但无论你身在何处,接下来每个人都要考虑如何管理债务和组织债务减免。将疫情期间的债务政治化,会导致各级政府的运行在未来几年出现动荡。
在美国,“不该动用公帑”的情绪非常强烈,这种情绪一直以来都是美国系统性削弱社会保障网络的基础。加州大学洛杉矶分校(UCLA)的马丁·吉伦斯教授在他的《美国人为什么讨厌福利制度》(Why Americans Hate Welfare)一书中提到,个人主义、经济上的利己主义、对于“不配”享受福利的人群的比喻以及种族主义等,形成了美国人对于通过税收进行财富再分配这种方式的态度。
加拿大确实有更强大的社会保障网和集体主义思维,但雅尼恩认为,由联邦政府持有疫情产生的债务而不是由个人承担,在经济上有合理的理由。
她说:“你当然可以说失业的家庭应该承担债务,但用这种方式承担债务的成本最高。”家庭要为债务支付更高的风险溢价,比如信用卡和信贷额度的利息等,而且最贫困的家庭往往借款成本越高,因为他们最有可能使用民间借贷,比如高息工资日贷款等。家庭债务在系统中存在的时间越长,所有人的情况就会变得越糟糕。
雅尼恩用债务成本对此进行了解释。她说:“家庭的借贷成本高于小企业;小企业的借贷成本高于大企业;大企业的借贷成本高于市政府;市政府的借贷成本高于省(或州)政府;省(或州)政府的借贷成本高于联邦政府。”
她继续说道:“由联邦政府偿还贷款和借贷的风险最低,所以在债务生态系统中,联邦政府的借贷成本最低。而由于疫情的原因,债务水平正在持续上升。所以,如果你是真正的财政保守派,你会希望债务系统向贷款机构支付最少的资金,这就需要由联邦政府来承担债务。”(财富中文网)
翻译:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
For many Americans, accessing financial assistance during the pandemic has been like chasing a dot on the horizon: The closer you get, the further away it is.
And some people never catch it. Research from Columbia University published in October shows the poorest Americans are now even poorer, despite the generous top-up unemployment benefits paid out by the $2.2 trillion CARES Act. By September, the researchers noted, “the monthly poverty rate for Black and Hispanic individuals was 25.2% and 25.8%, respectively, compared to 12% for white individuals.”
Layers of state bureaucracy, outdated computer systems, and, in some states, anti-welfare attitudes kept timely help out of the reach of many. In states such as Florida, where about a quarter of the population is Latinx, people waited well into the summer to get their unemployment benefits. The result has been unpaid bills, long lines at food banks, and increasing difficulty at catching up financially. When people finally did get their benefits, Evercore ISI policy economist Ernie Tedeschi told Fortune that roughly one-third of it went to paying down debt; one-third was spent on consumption (mainly food); and one-third was put into savings. The July 31 expiration of the $600 unemployment add-on and the impending end of the $300 Lost Wages Assistance program means people will soon start running out of those savings.
At the same time, the American economy is being kept afloat primarily by low-income household spending, according to Brookings Institution economist Gary Burtless. “The biggest proportional and absolute drops in spending have been on the part of higher income people,” he said.
The failures in timing and efficient, centralized disbursal of aid, plus the labyrinthine complexity of accessing unemployment benefits and other help, were key factors causing major financial damage to Americans, according to researchers and economists who spoke to Fortune.
It didn’t have to be that way.
On the other side of the U.S.–Canada border, Canadians received $2,000 deposited directly into their bank accounts three days after filling out an online form on the federal revenue agency’s website. “It gave people the ability to do what they had to do during the pandemic: stay home, not get on the bus to go to work, those sorts of things,” said Margot Young, a law professor specializing in constitutional and social justice issues at the University of British Columbia.
That Canadian assistance program, called the Canadian Economic Recovery Benefit (CERB), was accessed by nearly 9 million people—about a quarter of the population. In all, the Canadian government has paid out C$81 billion (about $61 billion in USD) in benefits since CERB’s April launch, which provided retroactive payments to March 15. In October, it ended and was folded into a newly reformed unemployment system expanded to include self-employed and gig workers.
Canada isn’t a utopia amidst the pandemic, and CERB didn’t catch everyone. Its initial version was designed for people who were totally unemployed; it was later updated to allow people earning up to C$1,000 a month to qualify. People on disability and welfare receiving less than $2,000 a month were angry; they now had proof they had been receiving less than what the government determined to be a livable wage. Students who couldn’t find a summer job received only $1,250 a month over the summer, and Canadian provinces were ill-prepared to cope as COVID swept through migrant worker populations, particularly those in agriculture and food processing. Women were disproportionately affected by the pandemic as they took on homeschooling and more caretaking duties of children and elders. Other measures—$40,000 interest-free emergency loans to small businesses, six-month mortgage deferrals, eviction moratoriums for renters—were badly needed lifelines, though they only pushed off inevitable strife.
“But certainly, Canada has done more, and more consistently, for more people than in the U.S. And we have been rewarded with much more robust job recovery and fewer business failures to date,” Armine Yalnizyan, a prominent Canadian economist and Atkinson fellow on the future of workers, tells Fortune. In September, statistics show Canada’s labor force participation was at 64.8%, compared with the U.S.’s 61.4%. Additionally, Canada’s third-quarter economic growth outpaced the United States’ by 16 percentage points.
Canada has also had a much smaller percentage of its population become sick with or die from COVID-19. Compared with U.S. figures, Canada has had one-third of the deaths and one-fifth of the confirmed infections, after adjusting for population size differences—an outcome partly owed to the speed of Canada’s emergency benefits, which enabled people to shelter in place faster. As for health care—the biggest piece of Canada’s social safety net and the elephant in the room—it’s still unknown what role the country's universal single-payer system played in those outcomes. However, as Boston University assistant professor of health law, policy, and management Paul Shafer noted, data indicates people in states without expanded Medicaid are faring worse because health insurance is more strongly tied to employment.
“There's some data from the Urban Institute that showed that in states that didn't expand Medicaid, adults within a family that lost a job were about three times more likely to become uninsured,” said Shafer. “So it goes back to this story of where you live has a lot to do with how well you're supported during this.”
Regardless of jurisdiction, though, managing debt and organizing debt forgiveness will be what comes next for everyone. The politicization of pandemic debt will cause governments at every level to rise and fall for years to come.
In the U.S., the “not on my taxpayer dime!” sentiment is strong, and it has long been an underpinning of the systematic weakening of the country’s social safety net. According to UCLA professor Martin Gilens’s book Why Americans Hate Welfare, individualism, economic self-interest, the trope of the “undeserving” welfare recipient, and racial discrimination each contribute to American attitudes on wealth redistribution through taxation.
Canada’s social safety net and collectivist mindset are stronger, yes, but Yalnizyan argues that there are sound economic reasons why it’s better for federal governments to hold pandemic debt instead of individualizing the debt.
“If you’re going to say households that lost their jobs should be shouldering the debt, that’s cool—but that’s the most costly form of carrying debt,” she said. Households pay higher risk premiums for debt—think interest rates on credit cards and lines of credit—and the poorest households often pay the most because they are the likeliest to turn to noninstitutional lending like high-interest payday loans. The longer household debt stays in the system, the worse off everyone is.
Yalnizyan explained that in terms of cost of debt, “households pay more than small businesses; small businesses pay more than big businesses; big businesses pay more than municipalities; municipalities pay more than provinces [or states]; and provinces [or states] pay more than the federal government.”
“The federal government has the least risk on paying back loans and for borrowing money, which makes it the lowest cost borrower in the ecosystem of debt. And debt is rising because of the pandemic,” she continued. “So if you are a true fiscal conservative, you will want the system of debt to be paying the least amount of money to the lenders—and that would be the federal level of government.”