拜登胜选和民主党占据参议院这种完胜的局面并没有出现,让股市逃过了一劫。虽然股市临时躲过了加税和加强监管的影响,但美国总统大选之前一直影响股票市场的基本问题依旧存在。事实上,投资者面临着双重威胁,它们所带来的风险可能比过去一个世纪的任何时候都要严重。首先,股市的价格水平整体过高,因此它们下跌的概率要远高于上涨。其次,有过多潜在破坏因素(从重启封锁造成的毁灭性冲击到大幅攀升的联邦债务)可能削弱股市恢复繁荣的力量:公司实现收入强劲增长的能力。
华尔街的权威人士和市场策略师以及许多记者甚至知名学者都认为,政府分裂后的僵局是股票市场的利好消息。我的好友、CNBC的吉姆•克拉默将政治僵局称为“成长股的利好消息”,而沃顿商学院(Wharton School)备受尊敬的经济学家杰里米•西格尔称选情胶着“对于经济和股市有利”,他预测政府的大规模刺激措施和基础设施政策会提振股市的士气。
显然,市场担心一旦拜登当选总统并且已经在众议院占多数席位的民主党掌控参议院,可能会大幅加税。(但请注意:还有五次参议院选举尚未举行,因此民主党在参议院与共和党打成平手并非没有可能。)拜登曾经承诺将企业所得税从21%提高到28%,并对100万美元以上的资本收益按39.5%征税,这对市场而言是两个巨大的负面消息。从10月11日至30日,拜登和民主党参议员候选人持续扩大在民调中的领先优势,在此期间,标普指数下跌了7%。但大选日之前,在选情胶着之际,标普指数上涨了3.1%,之后到11月4日和5日进一步反弹,涨幅达到7.5%,创下了从3月中旬的最低谷开始反弹以来,表现最好的连续四个交易日。11月6日下午3点左右,标普指数距离其9月2日创下的历史最高点相差不到2%。
指数上涨对于股票投资者而言是好消息。但已经定价过高的标普500指数价格持续上涨,这为市场的未来前景蒙上了阴影。再次强调一下,过高的估值是市场面临的两大风险之一。2019年年底,根据之前四个季度按美国公认会计准则计算的收益,标普指数的每股收益达到创纪录的39.43美元。由于每股收益在公司收入和股东权益中所占的比例过高,因此必定会下跌“至平均水平”,或者至少将停止上涨。
计算“可持续”每股收益的最佳指标是耶鲁大学经济学家罗伯特•席勒创造的周期调整后市盈率。周期调整后市盈率在判断股票定价过高还是过低时具有很好的指导作用。类似于去年那种收益泡沫让股票看起来价格低廉,而临时性的下跌又会让投资者产生股票定价过高的错觉,但席勒用通胀调整后10年平均水平得出了一个正常数据。今天,席勒得出的标普500指数调整后每股收益接近110美元。当标普指数为3518点时,席勒计算出的市盈率倍数为32。这与1929年股灾爆发之前的最高水平相当,在过去90年,只有2000年的科技泡沫超过了这个水平。
按照席勒的指标,股票的回报率非常高,这表明未来通胀调整后的收益可能为负,或者接近于零。当然,看涨的华尔街投资者们希望人们相信,每股收益不仅将重新达到2019年的水平,还会继续实现两位数上涨,足以充分证明市场的估值是合理的,尽管他们也承认这样的估值极具挑战性。
第三季度,标普指数的每股收益确实提高到35美元。但这比2019年第四季度依旧低11%,而且分析师预测未来两个季度,标普指数的每股收益会进一步下降到28.50美元左右。分析师的预测通常会过于乐观,即便如此,他们的预测也认为在明年年中之前,标普指数的每股收益不会恢复到去年的水平。这不可能发生。为什么呢?因为根据美国国会预算办公室(Congressional Budget Office)的预测,到2022年最后一个季度之前,美国经济无论是商品还是服务的产值都不可能恢复到2019年的水平。
只有经济恢复正常,每股收益才有可能超过2019年的史上最高水平,在国民收入中占更大比例。去年年底,公司收入占美国GDP的7%,远高于其过去半个世纪6%以下的水平。只有公司收入的GDP占比突破7%并进一步提高,才能够证明看涨的投资者是正确的。
股票的估值越高,其价格就越难维持稳定,因为高估值的股票更容易受到经济冲击的影响,从而出现股价暴跌,这是股票市场面临的第二大威胁。美国经济遭到冲击的次数和严重性,可能达到危险的程度。以下是我认为股票市场面临的三种危机。第一种危机最好理解:如果疫情无法在短期内得到控制,美国将迎来另一轮大范围封锁,尤其是拜登已经承诺将采取比特朗普更加严格的措施。我们已经看到欧洲重启封锁令,重创了美国的出口商。随着美国每日新增确诊病例10万例,屡破纪录,美国的旅游业、餐旅业、酒店和航空业都将面临更长时间的困境,遭受巨大的损失。
第二,美国的利率最近在持续上升。自8月初以来,10年期国债的收益率从0.5%提高到0.86%,后来大选结果的不确定性导致优质资产变得抢手,因此国债收益率有所回落。国会预算办公室预测明年利率只会上涨1%左右。但这个预测结果极有可能是错误的。“实际”利率通常会随着GDP的变化而波动,如果从2021年年底到2022年,经济增长速度恢复到2%,10年期国债收益率(包括通货膨胀溢价)有可能远高于2%。2018年年底,10年期国债的收益率为3%。当实际利率上调时,市场容易出现反常表现。这或许不会发生,但如果经济恢复繁荣,预测更高收益率并非没有道理。
第三,最近,数十亿美元新刺激措施悬而未决,导致市场起伏不定。增加失业补助、向小企业发放救助以帮助他们留住员工、向家庭发放现金补贴等措施,都是防止破产和丧失抵押品赎回权的必要缓冲,而且能够缓解贷款商的压力。但为应对疫情慷慨发放数万亿美元补助,要付出高昂的代价,会导致联邦债务大幅增加。现在几乎没有人在解决这个问题。国会预算办公室预测,到2021年年底,联邦债务将从16.8万亿美元增加5.1万亿美元,达到近22万亿美元,相当于美国GDP的104%。为了填补预算缺口,美国财政部正在发放期限仅有几周的债券。如果利率突然上涨,利息支出会随之增加,这可能会引发债务危机,迫使政府大幅加税。联邦债务日益积累有可能导致外国投资者要求提高利率,主要是为了防范美元继续贬值导致美元兑换成本国货币时出现利息损失的风险。外国投资者是美国填补财政赤字的重要资金来源。
当然,如果海外借款人继续大量买入美国国债,美国则可以将清算日期推迟几年。但风险依旧存在,而为了应对新冠疫情已经支出的数万亿美元以及未来的更多投入,会让风险变得更加严重。
无论是这三种危机还是第四种危机估值过高,在股票价格均没有任何体现。这些危机同时存在,显然不会是股票市场的“利好消息”。(财富中文网)
翻译:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
拜登胜选和民主党占据参议院这种完胜的局面并没有出现,让股市逃过了一劫。虽然股市临时躲过了加税和加强监管的影响,但美国总统大选之前一直影响股票市场的基本问题依旧存在。事实上,投资者面临着双重威胁,它们所带来的风险可能比过去一个世纪的任何时候都要严重。首先,股市的价格水平整体过高,因此它们下跌的概率要远高于上涨。其次,有过多潜在破坏因素(从重启封锁造成的毁灭性冲击到大幅攀升的联邦债务)可能削弱股市恢复繁荣的力量:公司实现收入强劲增长的能力。
华尔街的权威人士和市场策略师以及许多记者甚至知名学者都认为,政府分裂后的僵局是股票市场的利好消息。我的好友、CNBC的吉姆•克拉默将政治僵局称为“成长股的利好消息”,而沃顿商学院(Wharton School)备受尊敬的经济学家杰里米•西格尔称选情胶着“对于经济和股市有利”,他预测政府的大规模刺激措施和基础设施政策会提振股市的士气。
显然,市场担心一旦拜登当选总统并且已经在众议院占多数席位的民主党掌控参议院,可能会大幅加税。(但请注意:还有五次参议院选举尚未举行,因此民主党在参议院与共和党打成平手并非没有可能。)拜登曾经承诺将企业所得税从21%提高到28%,并对100万美元以上的资本收益按39.5%征税,这对市场而言是两个巨大的负面消息。从10月11日至30日,拜登和民主党参议员候选人持续扩大在民调中的领先优势,在此期间,标普指数下跌了7%。但大选日之前,在选情胶着之际,标普指数上涨了3.1%,之后到11月4日和5日进一步反弹,涨幅达到7.5%,创下了从3月中旬的最低谷开始反弹以来,表现最好的连续四个交易日。11月6日下午3点左右,标普指数距离其9月2日创下的历史最高点相差不到2%。
指数上涨对于股票投资者而言是好消息。但已经定价过高的标普500指数价格持续上涨,这为市场的未来前景蒙上了阴影。再次强调一下,过高的估值是市场面临的两大风险之一。2019年年底,根据之前四个季度按美国公认会计准则计算的收益,标普指数的每股收益达到创纪录的39.43美元。由于每股收益在公司收入和股东权益中所占的比例过高,因此必定会下跌“至平均水平”,或者至少将停止上涨。
计算“可持续”每股收益的最佳指标是耶鲁大学经济学家罗伯特•席勒创造的周期调整后市盈率。周期调整后市盈率在判断股票定价过高还是过低时具有很好的指导作用。类似于去年那种收益泡沫让股票看起来价格低廉,而临时性的下跌又会让投资者产生股票定价过高的错觉,但席勒用通胀调整后10年平均水平得出了一个正常数据。今天,席勒得出的标普500指数调整后每股收益接近110美元。当标普指数为3518点时,席勒计算出的市盈率倍数为32。这与1929年股灾爆发之前的最高水平相当,在过去90年,只有2000年的科技泡沫超过了这个水平。
按照席勒的指标,股票的回报率非常高,这表明未来通胀调整后的收益可能为负,或者接近于零。当然,看涨的华尔街投资者们希望人们相信,每股收益不仅将重新达到2019年的水平,还会继续实现两位数上涨,足以充分证明市场的估值是合理的,尽管他们也承认这样的估值极具挑战性。
第三季度,标普指数的每股收益确实提高到35美元。但这比2019年第四季度依旧低11%,而且分析师预测未来两个季度,标普指数的每股收益会进一步下降到28.50美元左右。分析师的预测通常会过于乐观,即便如此,他们的预测也认为在明年年中之前,标普指数的每股收益不会恢复到去年的水平。这不可能发生。为什么呢?因为根据美国国会预算办公室(Congressional Budget Office)的预测,到2022年最后一个季度之前,美国经济无论是商品还是服务的产值都不可能恢复到2019年的水平。
只有经济恢复正常,每股收益才有可能超过2019年的史上最高水平,在国民收入中占更大比例。去年年底,公司收入占美国GDP的7%,远高于其过去半个世纪6%以下的水平。只有公司收入的GDP占比突破7%并进一步提高,才能够证明看涨的投资者是正确的。
股票的估值越高,其价格就越难维持稳定,因为高估值的股票更容易受到经济冲击的影响,从而出现股价暴跌,这是股票市场面临的第二大威胁。美国经济遭到冲击的次数和严重性,可能达到危险的程度。以下是我认为股票市场面临的三种危机。第一种危机最好理解:如果疫情无法在短期内得到控制,美国将迎来另一轮大范围封锁,尤其是拜登已经承诺将采取比特朗普更加严格的措施。我们已经看到欧洲重启封锁令,重创了美国的出口商。随着美国每日新增确诊病例10万例,屡破纪录,美国的旅游业、餐旅业、酒店和航空业都将面临更长时间的困境,遭受巨大的损失。
第二,美国的利率最近在持续上升。自8月初以来,10年期国债的收益率从0.5%提高到0.86%,后来大选结果的不确定性导致优质资产变得抢手,因此国债收益率有所回落。国会预算办公室预测明年利率只会上涨1%左右。但这个预测结果极有可能是错误的。“实际”利率通常会随着GDP的变化而波动,如果从2021年年底到2022年,经济增长速度恢复到2%,10年期国债收益率(包括通货膨胀溢价)有可能远高于2%。2018年年底,10年期国债的收益率为3%。当实际利率上调时,市场容易出现反常表现。这或许不会发生,但如果经济恢复繁荣,预测更高收益率并非没有道理。
第三,最近,数十亿美元新刺激措施悬而未决,导致市场起伏不定。增加失业补助、向小企业发放救助以帮助他们留住员工、向家庭发放现金补贴等措施,都是防止破产和丧失抵押品赎回权的必要缓冲,而且能够缓解贷款商的压力。但为应对疫情慷慨发放数万亿美元补助,要付出高昂的代价,会导致联邦债务大幅增加。现在几乎没有人在解决这个问题。国会预算办公室预测,到2021年年底,联邦债务将从16.8万亿美元增加5.1万亿美元,达到近22万亿美元,相当于美国GDP的104%。为了填补预算缺口,美国财政部正在发放期限仅有几周的债券。如果利率突然上涨,利息支出会随之增加,这可能会引发债务危机,迫使政府大幅加税。联邦债务日益积累有可能导致外国投资者要求提高利率,主要是为了防范美元继续贬值导致美元兑换成本国货币时出现利息损失的风险。外国投资者是美国填补财政赤字的重要资金来源。
当然,如果海外借款人继续大量买入美国国债,美国则可以将清算日期推迟几年。但风险依旧存在,而为了应对新冠疫情已经支出的数万亿美元以及未来的更多投入,会让风险变得更加严重。
无论是这三种危机还是第四种危机估值过高,在股票价格均没有任何体现。这些危机同时存在,显然不会是股票市场的“利好消息”。(财富中文网)
翻译:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
The stock market dodged a bullet when the Blue Wave––a Biden victory and a Democratic takeover in the Senate––didn't materialize. But ducking the specter of more taxes-and-regulation didn't erase the fundamental problems weighing on equities before the election. Indeed, investors face two threats, that taken together, pose risks as grave as at any time in the past century. First, shares overall are so hugely expensive that history tells us they're far more likely to fall than to soar. Second, an unusually large number of lurking spoilers (potentially devastating shocks from more lockdowns to soaring federal debt) could sap the strength that must return for stocks to prosper: Businesses' capacity to generate strong growth in earnings.
To be sure, Wall Street's pundits and market strategists, along with plenty of journalists and even some top academics, are touting divided government gridlock as great news for the markets. My friend Jim Cramer of CNBC praised gridlock as "nirvana for growth stocks," while revered economist Jeremy Siegel of the Wharton School pronounce the election split "excellent for the economy and excellent for the markets," predicting big stimulus and infrastructure packages that will buoy stocks.
The markets were clearly nervous about the prospects big tax increases if Biden took the presidency and the Democrats gained control in the Senate to match their majority in the House. (One caveat however: There are still five Senate races that have yet to be called, making it not impossible that the Democrats could reach a tie in the Senate.) Biden had pledged to raise the corporate income tax from 21% to 28%, and impose a 39.5% levy on capital gains over $1 million, both big negatives for the markets. From October 11 to 30, the S&P dropped 7% as Biden and blue Senate candidates expanded their leads in the polls. But then, a tightening race lifted the S&P by 3.1% through Election Day, followed by more gains on November 4 and 5 that swelled the relief rally to 7.5%, capping the best 4-day performance since the snapback from the mid-March lows. At mid-afternoon on November 6, the S&P stood within 2% of its all-time high posted on September 2.
That jump looks great for people who own stocks. But it darkens the cloud over the market's future by making the already super-expensive S&P 500 even pricier. Once again, those towering valuations are the first of our two classes of danger. At the close of 2019, S&P profits hit a record of $39.43 based on the trailing four quarters of GAAP earnings. Because that number was so elevated as a share of revenues and shareholders equity, it looked like profits would "revert to the mean" by falling, or at least going flat.
The best measure of "sustainable" earnings-per-share is the number used in the Cyclically-adjusted price-earnings ratio created by Yale economist Robert Shiller. The CAPE calculates an adjusted P/E that's a great guide to whether shares are over or underpriced. Since a profits bubble like the one experienced last year makes stocks look like a bargain, and a temporary collapse creates the illusion they're exorbitantly priced, Shiller uses a 10-year, inflation-adjusted average to get a normalized number. Today, Shiller's adjusted figure for S&P 500 earnings-per-share is just under $110. With the S&P at 3518, the Shiller P/E is 32. That reading matches the peak just before the crash of 1929, and was only significantly exceeded once in the past 90 years, during the tech bubble of 2000.
By the Shiller measure, stocks look really, really rich, signaling that future returns will be either negative or near-zero, adjusted for inflation. Of course, the Wall Street bulls want you to believe that a surge in earnings that not just regains the heights of 2019, but keeps waxing in double-digit from there, fully justify what they acknowledge to look like challenging valuations.
It's true that S&P profits staged a comeback in the third quarter to $35. But that's still 11% below Q4 of 2019, and analysts are predicting much lower readings of around $28.50 over the next two quarters. Even their forecasts, which are generally overly optimistic, don't see earnings getting back to last year's levels until the middle of next year. It won't happen. Why? Because the economy won't match the 2019 output in goods and services, according to projections from the Congressional Budget Office, until the final quarter of 2022.
Since the economy will just regain lost grounds, profits can only beat the 2019 all-time record by taking a much bigger share of national income. At the close of last year, corporate earnings were absorbing 7% of GDP, well above their below-6% mark over the past half-century. They'd have to break that mark and go higher for the bulls to be right.
The more expensive equities get, the more prices teeter on a knife edge because they're increasingly vulnerable to economic shocks that can send them crashing––the second big threat to equities. The number and ferocity of storms that could hit the U.S. is dangerously high. Here's what I call the Perilous Three. The first is the most obvious: Another sweeping lockdown if the pandemic doesn't retreat soon, especially since Biden has promised to take much stronger action than Trump. We're already seeing severe restrictions re-imposed in Europe that's hitting our exporters. With the U.S. witnessing a record 100,000 new cases a day, our tourism, hospitality, restaurant, and airline industries could be facing many more months of pain, spotlighted by giant losses.
Second, interest rates have been ticking up of late. From early August, the 10-year treasury yield rose from .5% to .86% before retreating when uncertainty over the election's outcome caused a flight to quality. The CBO is predicting rates to rise only to around 1% next year. But that forecast could easily be wrong. "Real" interest rates typically track GDP, and if economic growth returns to 2% in late 2021 and 2022, it's highly possible the 10-year yield (which includes a premium for inflation), could rise well above 2%. It was paying 3% as recently as the end of 2018. The markets tend to freak out when real rates rise. It may not happen, but if we get renewed prosperity, it isn't unreasonable to forecast that we'll get much higher yields as well.
Third, the markets have been spiking and retreating of late on the careening prospects for billions more in stimulus. Enhanced unemployment insurance, aid to small businesses designed to help them keep employees, and cash payments to families are an important buffer to preventing bankruptcies and foreclosures, and easing pressure on lenders. But the trillions lavished on assistance to counter the pandemic also comes at a high cost few are addressing: An explosion in federal debt. The CBO projects that by the close of 2021, federal debt will jump by $5.1 trillion from $16.8 to almost $22 trillion, or 104% of GDP. To finance those shortfalls, the Treasury is issuing bond with maturities of just a few weeks. If rates suddenly spike, interest expense will soar, potentially causing a debt crisis and mandating big tax increases. Or, the buildup in debt will cause foreigners crucial to funding our deficits in demand higher rates, mainly on the risk that the dollar will keep falling and cutting interest payments translated into their own currencies.
Of course, America may be able to put off the reckoning for years to come, if those overseas borrowers keep loading up on Treasuries. But the risk is still there, and the trillions spent to blunt COVID-19, with more to come, keeps sharpening that risk.
Stock prices are ignoring the Perilous Three, and the Perilous Fourth, those gigantic valuations. Taken together, this mix may not be nirvana at all.