新冠疫苗对所有人来说都是好消息。但对于某些股票而言却意味着一轮上涨行情即将结束。
10月下旬,摩根大通(J.P. Morgan)的分析师列出了可能因为疫苗上市而出现下跌的25只股票。11月9日,辉瑞(Pfizer)与BioNTech宣布其合作开发的一款候选疫苗在临床试验中的有效性达到90%。因此,摩根大通的榜单似乎恰逢其时。
摩根大通的分析师写道:“随着疫苗上市日益临近,我们推出了‘新冠疫苗战术性做空候选股票’。这些股票在动量指数中均排名靠前并且交易火爆,但随着消费者和企业的活动正常化,其利润增长的二阶导数会转为下降。”
11月9日,分析师的一些预测已经成真,例如Zoom和Peloton等公司的股价在收盘时分别下跌了17%和20%。摩根大通的榜单中还包括在线教育提供商K12、草坪护理化学品制造商ScottsMiracle-Gro以及Wayfair、Overstock和开市客(Costco)等因为人们囤积物资和居家隔离而受益的零售商。
另外,由于投资者希望疫苗意味着封锁解除,因此在11月9日,油价上涨,汽车制造业、航空业和游艇运营商等行业的股价均出现上涨。正如《财富》杂志的凯瑟琳·邓恩曾经写道:“这种上涨的行情可能来的过早,但位于奥斯陆的Rystad Energy公司的石油市场负责人比约尔纳·通豪根说:‘在交易商眼中,疫苗能够确保未来不需要封锁,会让人们重新回到街上,这会带来公路和航空运输的复苏。’”
以下是摩根大通的新冠疫苗战术性做空候选股票完整名单:
ScottsMiracle-Gro
Peloton Interactive
YETI Holdings
Vista Outdoor
Chipotle Mexican Grill
Chegg
K12
Wayfair
Grubhub
Fiverr International
Stamps.com
Overstock.com
Big Lots
开市客公司
波士顿啤酒(Boston Beer)
高乐氏(Clorox)
Central Garden & Pet
American Well
Moderna
诺瓦瓦克斯医药(Novavax)
Zoom视频通讯公司(Zoom Video Communications)
罗技国际公司(Logitech International)
Bandwidth公司(Bandwidth Inc.)A类股
Equinix
数字房地产信托(Digital Realty Trust)
摩根大通的分析师警告:“这些股票应该被视为针对市场催化剂事件表达观点的战术机会,而不是对这些公司的基本面调整。”
事实上,美国的新冠疫情依旧形势严峻,而且唐纳德·特朗普尚未承认败选,因此现在做空波士顿啤酒这类股票似乎仍然为时尚早。(财富中文网)
翻译:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
新冠疫苗对所有人来说都是好消息。但对于某些股票而言却意味着一轮上涨行情即将结束。
10月下旬,摩根大通(J.P. Morgan)的分析师列出了可能因为疫苗上市而出现下跌的25只股票。11月9日,辉瑞(Pfizer)与BioNTech宣布其合作开发的一款候选疫苗在临床试验中的有效性达到90%。因此,摩根大通的榜单似乎恰逢其时。
摩根大通的分析师写道:“随着疫苗上市日益临近,我们推出了‘新冠疫苗战术性做空候选股票’。这些股票在动量指数中均排名靠前并且交易火爆,但随着消费者和企业的活动正常化,其利润增长的二阶导数会转为下降。”
11月9日,分析师的一些预测已经成真,例如Zoom和Peloton等公司的股价在收盘时分别下跌了17%和20%。摩根大通的榜单中还包括在线教育提供商K12、草坪护理化学品制造商ScottsMiracle-Gro以及Wayfair、Overstock和开市客(Costco)等因为人们囤积物资和居家隔离而受益的零售商。
另外,由于投资者希望疫苗意味着封锁解除,因此在11月9日,油价上涨,汽车制造业、航空业和游艇运营商等行业的股价均出现上涨。正如《财富》杂志的凯瑟琳·邓恩曾经写道:“这种上涨的行情可能来的过早,但位于奥斯陆的Rystad Energy公司的石油市场负责人比约尔纳·通豪根说:‘在交易商眼中,疫苗能够确保未来不需要封锁,会让人们重新回到街上,这会带来公路和航空运输的复苏。’”
以下是摩根大通的新冠疫苗战术性做空候选股票完整名单:
ScottsMiracle-Gro
Peloton Interactive
YETI Holdings
Vista Outdoor
Chipotle Mexican Grill
Chegg
K12
Wayfair
Grubhub
Fiverr International
Stamps.com
Overstock.com
Big Lots
开市客公司
波士顿啤酒(Boston Beer)
高乐氏(Clorox)
Central Garden & Pet
American Well
Moderna
诺瓦瓦克斯医药(Novavax)
Zoom视频通讯公司(Zoom Video Communications)
罗技国际公司(Logitech International)
Bandwidth公司(Bandwidth Inc.)A类股
Equinix
数字房地产信托(Digital Realty Trust)
摩根大通的分析师警告:“这些股票应该被视为针对市场催化剂事件表达观点的战术机会,而不是对这些公司的基本面调整。”
事实上,美国的新冠疫情依旧形势严峻,而且唐纳德·特朗普尚未承认败选,因此现在做空波士顿啤酒这类股票似乎仍然为时尚早。(财富中文网)
翻译:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
A vaccine for COVID is great news for the world’s population. But it may mean the end of a good run for certain stocks.
In late October, J.P. Morgan analysts compiled a list of 25 stocks that could respond negatively to the introduction of a vaccine. Given November 9’s news that a candidate from Pfizer/BioNTech prevented 90% of infections in trials, that list appears to be newly relevant.
“As we are getting closer to a vaccine, we are introducing COVID-19 Vaccine Tactical Short Candidates,” the J.P. Morgan analysts wrote. “This is a list of stocks that are in the upper echelon of Momentum and have crowded positioning, that could see the second derivative of their profit growth decrease as consumer/corporate activity normalizes.”
Already on November 9 several of their predictions appeared to be playing out, with names like Zoom down 17% and Peloton down 20% as of the close. The list also included online education provider K12, lawn care chemical maker ScottsMiracle-Gro, and retailers such as Wayfair, Overstock, and Costco that have benefited from people stocking up and staying home.
Meanwhile oil prices surged November 9, as did sectors such as carmakers, airlines, and cruise operators, on hopes that a vaccine would mean an end to lockdowns. As Fortune’s Katherine Dunn wrote: “Such a surge may be completely premature, but ‘in the eyes of traders, a vaccine will help ensure no future lockdowns are needed and will bring people back to the streets, allowing road and air transport to recover,’ said Bjornar Tonhaugen, head of oil markets at Rystad Energy in Oslo.”
Here is J.P. Morgan’s full list of COVID-19 Vaccine Tactical Short Candidates:
ScottsMiracle-Gro
ScottsMiracle-Gro
Peloton Interactive
Peloton Interactive
YETI Holdings
YETI Holdings
Vista Outdoor
Vista Outdoor
Chipotle Mexican Grill
Chipotle Mexican Grill
Chegg
Chegg
K12
K12
Wayfair
Wayfair
Grubhub
Grubhub
Fiverr International
Fiverr International
Stamps.com
Stamps.com
Overstock.com
Overstock.com
Big Lots
Big Lots
Costco Wholesale
Boston Beer
Clorox
Central Garden & Pet
Central Garden & Pet
American Well
American Well
Moderna
Moderna
Novavax
Zoom Video Communications
Logitech International
Bandwidth Inc. Class A
Equinix
Equinix
Digital Realty Trust
To be sure, the J.P. Morgan analysts cautioned that “these screens should be viewed as tactical opportunity to express a view on the catalyst rather than a fundamental call on these companies.”
And indeed, with a pandemic still raging and Donald Trump not yet having conceded the presidential race, it might be a bit premature to short stocks like Boston Beer…just yet.