原油价格在11月9日大幅上扬,原因在于新冠疫苗有效性的好消息,以及时停时启的封锁令在全球范围内的结束似乎让业界看到了一个希望:需求可能会逐渐走出今年前所未有的跌幅深渊。
在11月9日下午早些时候,布伦特原油价格上涨了8.09%,达到42.64美元/桶,而WTI合约上涨了9.18%,达到了40.55美元/桶。成品油产品市场,包括汽油、加热油和柴油也都出现了至少6.6%的涨幅。
燃油价格的激增并非源于拜登在总统大选中的胜出,而是辉瑞和BioNTech公司新冠疫情疫苗临床试验高成功率的声明。双方在美股市场开盘之前宣布了这则消息。
这种涨幅可能来得过早了,但位于奥斯陆的Rystad Energy原油市场负责人比约纳•汤豪根说:“在交易者眼中,疫苗将有助于确保未来解除封锁令,而且将让人们回到街头,使陆运和空运恢复生机。”
今春早些时候下达的封锁令对原油需求带来了深远影响,制造了国际能源署(International Energy Agency)所谓的“黑色四月”,当时,原油消费量与去年相比下滑了2900万桶/天,而全球交通则到了匍匐前进的地步,同时只有数个航班依旧在执飞。
今年秋天,随着新病例的增加以及欧洲大部分地区重回封锁状态,即便休戚相关的美国总统选举对原油价格也没有带来多大的影响,因为人们的眼中依然只有疫情冲击。
国际能源署在上个月宣布,今年的原油需求将比2019年减少约870万桶/日。
受到冲击的不仅仅是原油。其他各类能源,包括可再生太阳能和风能,均出现了需求下滑,原因在于人们的日常生活发生了颠覆性的改变,尤其是在春季的第一波疫情期间。然而,原油受到的影响尤为严重,因为它严重依赖于车辆、航空和货运交通的燃油消费,在这些领域,其他能源,不管是煤还是太阳能,几乎都不是原油的对手(电动汽车亦无法撼动)。
当然,原油新需求的前景依然取决于多个未知因素,包括疫苗有效性的全貌,因为就连乐观的传染病专家都对此提出了警告。人们依然在问,当局如何以及何时才能够推出一款成功的疫苗。因此,在疫苗兴奋褪去后,油价急剧收缩的可能性在逐渐加大。
与此同时,拜登政府在多个领域都代表着一个截然不同的未来。这位总统当选者曾经承诺重回《巴黎协定》(Paris Agreement),并在2050年之前实现净零排放目标。然而,由于参议院掌握在共和党手中,我们尚不清楚拜登有多少政治权柄来推行这些政策。
反而,即将出现的疫苗则可能为测试眼下人们的日常习惯和消费是否发生了永久性变化带来了一个中期机遇。从灵活工作安排和航空旅行的减少到经济危机带来的收入冲击,再到众多企业大部分依靠可再生能源来支撑运营,一些分析师认为其中的多项转变可能会成为永久的现象。就连油气公司都曾经警告称存在这种可能性。越来越多的人认为,原油需求在2030年后的10年间可能会达到平衡,甚至会开始进入永恒下降通道。如果一切顺利的话,2021年或许会为我们揭晓答案。(财富中文网)
译者:冯丰
审校:夏林
原油价格在11月9日大幅上扬,原因在于新冠疫苗有效性的好消息,以及时停时启的封锁令在全球范围内的结束似乎让业界看到了一个希望:需求可能会逐渐走出今年前所未有的跌幅深渊。
在11月9日下午早些时候,布伦特原油价格上涨了8.09%,达到42.64美元/桶,而WTI合约上涨了9.18%,达到了40.55美元/桶。成品油产品市场,包括汽油、加热油和柴油也都出现了至少6.6%的涨幅。
燃油价格的激增并非源于拜登在总统大选中的胜出,而是辉瑞和BioNTech公司新冠疫情疫苗临床试验高成功率的声明。双方在美股市场开盘之前宣布了这则消息。
这种涨幅可能来得过早了,但位于奥斯陆的Rystad Energy原油市场负责人比约纳•汤豪根说:“在交易者眼中,疫苗将有助于确保未来解除封锁令,而且将让人们回到街头,使陆运和空运恢复生机。”
今春早些时候下达的封锁令对原油需求带来了深远影响,制造了国际能源署(International Energy Agency)所谓的“黑色四月”,当时,原油消费量与去年相比下滑了2900万桶/天,而全球交通则到了匍匐前进的地步,同时只有数个航班依旧在执飞。
今年秋天,随着新病例的增加以及欧洲大部分地区重回封锁状态,即便休戚相关的美国总统选举对原油价格也没有带来多大的影响,因为人们的眼中依然只有疫情冲击。
国际能源署在上个月宣布,今年的原油需求将比2019年减少约870万桶/日。
受到冲击的不仅仅是原油。其他各类能源,包括可再生太阳能和风能,均出现了需求下滑,原因在于人们的日常生活发生了颠覆性的改变,尤其是在春季的第一波疫情期间。然而,原油受到的影响尤为严重,因为它严重依赖于车辆、航空和货运交通的燃油消费,在这些领域,其他能源,不管是煤还是太阳能,几乎都不是原油的对手(电动汽车亦无法撼动)。
当然,原油新需求的前景依然取决于多个未知因素,包括疫苗有效性的全貌,因为就连乐观的传染病专家都对此提出了警告。人们依然在问,当局如何以及何时才能够推出一款成功的疫苗。因此,在疫苗兴奋褪去后,油价急剧收缩的可能性在逐渐加大。
与此同时,拜登政府在多个领域都代表着一个截然不同的未来。这位总统当选者曾经承诺重回《巴黎协定》(Paris Agreement),并在2050年之前实现净零排放目标。然而,由于参议院掌握在共和党手中,我们尚不清楚拜登有多少政治权柄来推行这些政策。
反而,即将出现的疫苗则可能为测试眼下人们的日常习惯和消费是否发生了永久性变化带来了一个中期机遇。从灵活工作安排和航空旅行的减少到经济危机带来的收入冲击,再到众多企业大部分依靠可再生能源来支撑运营,一些分析师认为其中的多项转变可能会成为永久的现象。就连油气公司都曾经警告称存在这种可能性。越来越多的人认为,原油需求在2030年后的10年间可能会达到平衡,甚至会开始进入永恒下降通道。如果一切顺利的话,2021年或许会为我们揭晓答案。(财富中文网)
译者:冯丰
审校:夏林
Oil prices were rallying dramatically on November 9, as the prospect of a workable COVID-19 vaccine—and an end to stop-and-start lockdowns worldwide—appeared to spark hope that demand could recover from an unprecedented drop this year.
On early afternoon November 9, Brent was up 8.09% to $42.64/barrel, while the WTI contract was up 9.18% to $40.55/barrel. Refined product markets, including gasoline, heating oil, and gas oil were also all up at least 6.6%.
Those surges were tied not to a Biden victory for President of the United States—but to the announcement of the high success rate in trials for the Pfizer and BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine, which was announced before markets opened in the U.S.
Such a surge may be completely premature, but “in the eyes of traders, a vaccine will help ensure no future lockdowns are needed and will bring people back to the streets, allowing road and air transport to recover,” said Bjornar Tonhaugen, head of oil markets at Rystad Energy in Oslo.
Lockdowns earlier this spring had a profound impact on oil demand, producing what the International Energy Agency (IEA) called a “black April,” with consumption down 29 million barrels per day compared with the previous year, as traffic slowed to a crawl worldwide and just a fraction of flights continued.
This autumn, as cases have been rising and much of Europe has plunged back into lockdown, even the prospect of a high-stakes presidential election failed to have much of an impact on oil prices as the focus remained squarely on the impact of the pandemic.
Last month, the IEA declared that oil demand will be down an estimated 8.7 million barrels per day this year, compared with 2020.
It’s not just oil that has been hit. All forms of energy, including renewable solar and wind, saw demand fall owing to the transformation in how everyday people live their lives, particularly during the first shock in the spring. But oil has been particularly affected, because it is so reliant on demand from vehicle, aviation, and shipping traffic for consumption, areas where—electric cars notwithstanding—it faces almost no competition from other energy sources, whether coal or solar.
Of course, the prospect of a renewed demand for oil is still resting on several unknowns, including the full picture of the vaccine’s effectiveness, as even optimistic infectious disease experts have warned. And questions remain for even a successful vaccine on how and when it will be administered—raising the odds that there could be a sharp pullback when the excitement has worn off.
Meanwhile, a Biden administration represents a starkly different future on several fronts. The President-elect has pledged to reenter the Paris Agreement and pursue net-zero emissions by 2050. It remains unclear just how much political leverage Biden will have to pursue those policies if the Republican Party retains control of the Senate.
Instead, a looming vaccine may represent a medium-term chance to test whether daily habits and consumption have now changed for good. From flexible working arrangements and less air travel, to a hit to incomes from the economic crisis, to a commitment by many businesses to power operations largely from renewable sources, some analysts think several of these shifts could be here to stay. Even oil and gas companies have warned of that possibility. There is a growing consensus that oil demand could plateau, or even begin to decrease permanently, by the 2030s. Under the best of circumstances, 2021 may be the year to find out.