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辉瑞因疫苗股价大涨,是时候入手了?

Brett Haensel
2020-11-14

有人依旧在怀疑,辉瑞股价上涨是否只是对于疫苗新闻的过度反应。

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辉瑞(Pfizer)在宣布有关新冠疫苗疗效的好消息之后,在疫苗竞赛中已经处于领先地位,因此其股价在11月9日大涨近8%,达到近42美元,创下52周新高。

虽然辉瑞股票在11月10日收盘时小幅下跌至略低于39美元,但有关疫苗的好消息确实让股东们看到了希望,认为辉瑞股票最终能够消除疫情带来的恐慌。当然,也有人依旧在怀疑,辉瑞股价上涨是否只是对于疫苗新闻的过度反应,疫苗最终并不会对该制药业巨头的盈利产生显著影响。

看涨的理由是什么?辉瑞(与德国公司BioNTech合作)在疫苗竞赛中领先,在短期内能给公司带来丰厚的收入,让投资者有机会了解公司正在开发的其他药品同样前景光明。瑞穗证券(Mizuho Securities)的总经理瓦米尔·迪万将辉瑞股票的价格目标提高到44美元,并给出了“买入”评级。他说:“我们对投资辉瑞的热情并不只是受到疫苗的影响。无论从公共健康还是公司的角度,疫苗显然都是好消息。但总体上来说,我们的观点是,辉瑞正在研发的更多产品,在未来五年左右,将让公司有极好的销售和收益增长前景。”

虽然瑞穗证券和摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)预测,公司在2020年至2021年期间因新冠疫苗带来的销售额将达到约80亿美元,但辉瑞在2019年的总收入超过500亿美元,主要得益于立普妥(Lipitor)、乐瑞卡(Lyrica)、西乐葆(Celebrex)、希舒美(Zithromax)和万艾可(Viagra)等拳头产品。迪万认为,辉瑞其他有市场前景的开发中药物有望成为公司新的拳头产品,但这些药物被市场低估,比如针对肌肉萎缩和银屑病的药物等。

迪万认为,新冠疫苗在短期内应该会给辉瑞带来稳定的收入流,这笔收入在财务上有重要的意义,可以用于支持其他并购和研发项目,前提是辉瑞的疫苗是有效的,并且不会被其他大型竞争对手开发的疫苗超越。但有些投资者却认为这存在很大的“不确定性”。

例如,巴克莱(Barclays)的生物制药股票研究总监卡特·古尔德承认疫苗能够“带来可观的收入”,但他认为“昨天我们得出的一个主要结论是,考虑到这款疫苗的压倒性疗效,我们可能会看到多款有效的疫苗。”

古尔德说:“我们对辉瑞给出了中立评级。从长远来看,与新冠疫苗的成功相比,今年早些时候Ibrance(一种治疗早期乳腺癌的药物,最近临床试验失败)的失败对公司长期财务前景的影响更大……辉瑞的股价在39美元或者40美元,基本上已经体现了新冠疫苗的效益。”

然而,有分析师认为,辉瑞迫切需要疫苗率先取得成功,因为从2025年到2030年,辉瑞将有多款产品的专利到期,包括Prevnar 13、Eliquis和Xtandi等。迪万表示:“这或许也代表了辉瑞未来的发展方向。它可能会变成一家更灵活、反应更迅速的公司,可以快速应对各种情况。今年年初,在被问到哪家公司的疫苗能够率先完成研发并成功上市时,绝大多数人并没有选择辉瑞,因为辉瑞一直被认为是一家老迈的、行动迟缓的公司。”(财富中文网)

翻译:刘进龙

审校:汪皓

辉瑞(Pfizer)在宣布有关新冠疫苗疗效的好消息之后,在疫苗竞赛中已经处于领先地位,因此其股价在11月9日大涨近8%,达到近42美元,创下52周新高。

虽然辉瑞股票在11月10日收盘时小幅下跌至略低于39美元,但有关疫苗的好消息确实让股东们看到了希望,认为辉瑞股票最终能够消除疫情带来的恐慌。当然,也有人依旧在怀疑,辉瑞股价上涨是否只是对于疫苗新闻的过度反应,疫苗最终并不会对该制药业巨头的盈利产生显著影响。

看涨的理由是什么?辉瑞(与德国公司BioNTech合作)在疫苗竞赛中领先,在短期内能给公司带来丰厚的收入,让投资者有机会了解公司正在开发的其他药品同样前景光明。瑞穗证券(Mizuho Securities)的总经理瓦米尔·迪万将辉瑞股票的价格目标提高到44美元,并给出了“买入”评级。他说:“我们对投资辉瑞的热情并不只是受到疫苗的影响。无论从公共健康还是公司的角度,疫苗显然都是好消息。但总体上来说,我们的观点是,辉瑞正在研发的更多产品,在未来五年左右,将让公司有极好的销售和收益增长前景。”

虽然瑞穗证券和摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)预测,公司在2020年至2021年期间因新冠疫苗带来的销售额将达到约80亿美元,但辉瑞在2019年的总收入超过500亿美元,主要得益于立普妥(Lipitor)、乐瑞卡(Lyrica)、西乐葆(Celebrex)、希舒美(Zithromax)和万艾可(Viagra)等拳头产品。迪万认为,辉瑞其他有市场前景的开发中药物有望成为公司新的拳头产品,但这些药物被市场低估,比如针对肌肉萎缩和银屑病的药物等。

迪万认为,新冠疫苗在短期内应该会给辉瑞带来稳定的收入流,这笔收入在财务上有重要的意义,可以用于支持其他并购和研发项目,前提是辉瑞的疫苗是有效的,并且不会被其他大型竞争对手开发的疫苗超越。但有些投资者却认为这存在很大的“不确定性”。

例如,巴克莱(Barclays)的生物制药股票研究总监卡特·古尔德承认疫苗能够“带来可观的收入”,但他认为“昨天我们得出的一个主要结论是,考虑到这款疫苗的压倒性疗效,我们可能会看到多款有效的疫苗。”

古尔德说:“我们对辉瑞给出了中立评级。从长远来看,与新冠疫苗的成功相比,今年早些时候Ibrance(一种治疗早期乳腺癌的药物,最近临床试验失败)的失败对公司长期财务前景的影响更大……辉瑞的股价在39美元或者40美元,基本上已经体现了新冠疫苗的效益。”

然而,有分析师认为,辉瑞迫切需要疫苗率先取得成功,因为从2025年到2030年,辉瑞将有多款产品的专利到期,包括Prevnar 13、Eliquis和Xtandi等。迪万表示:“这或许也代表了辉瑞未来的发展方向。它可能会变成一家更灵活、反应更迅速的公司,可以快速应对各种情况。今年年初,在被问到哪家公司的疫苗能够率先完成研发并成功上市时,绝大多数人并没有选择辉瑞,因为辉瑞一直被认为是一家老迈的、行动迟缓的公司。”(财富中文网)

翻译:刘进龙

审校:汪皓

Following an overwhelmingly positive update on the efficacy of its COVID-19 vaccine, Pfizer earned pole position in the race, causing its share price to jump nearly 8% on November 9, hitting a 52-week high of nearly $42.

Though on November 10 the stock closed a bit lower, just below $39, the vaccine news has certainly provided shareholders with hope that the company’s stock would finally break out of its pandemic funk. Of course, others were left wondering whether or not the jump in share price was simply an overreaction to news that ultimately wouldn’t have a significant impact on the pharmaceutical giant’s bottom line.

The bullish case? That Pfizer’s status as the front-runner (in partnership with German company BioNTech) will in the short term provide a decent revenue bump and give investors a bridge to other equally promising drugs the company has in development. “Our enthusiasm on the company is not driven exclusively by the vaccine,” notes Vamil Divan, managing director of Mizuho Securities, who has raised his price target to $44 and has a “buy” rating on Pfizer shares. “It’s obviously good news both from a broader public health perspective and a company perspective. But our view overall is that within the broader Pfizer pipeline, the company has a very good sales and earnings growth outlook for the next five years or so.”

While Mizuho and Morgan Stanley project that the company will take in roughly $8 billion in sales between 2020 and 2021 as a result of its COVID-19 vaccine, Pfizer brought in over $50 billion in total revenue in 2019, with core products such as Lipitor, Lyrica, Celebrex, Zithromax, and Viagra, among others, leading the way. Divan believes some of Pfizer’s other promising drugs in the pipeline—targeting diseases such as muscular dystrophy and psoriasis—are underappreciated by the market and have the potential to be blockbusters.

Divan believes the COVID-19 vaccine should provide Pfizer with a financially meaningful and steady revenue stream in the immediate future––fresh cash that can be used to fuel other M&A and R&D ventures––so long as it is effective and not outdone by the vaccines currently being developed by Big Pharma competitors. And that’s a big “if” for some.

For example, while Carter Gould, director of biopharma equity research at Barclays, acknowledges that the vaccine could “provide a pretty sizable revenue opportunity,” he believes that “one of the main takeaways of yesterday was, given the overwhelming efficacy, that you’re probably going to see multiple vaccines be efficacious.

“We’re neutral-rated on Pfizer,” Gould says. “In the long scheme of things, the stumbles they had with Ibrance [a potential treatment for early breast cancer patients that failed a recent trial] earlier in the year are going to weigh more on the company’s long-term financial prospects than the win on COVID…At $39, $40, you’re starting to get at points where the benefits of COVID are largely already priced in.”

Nonetheless, analysts note that a win was badly needed for Pfizer, as the company is facing a variety of patent expirations––its Prevnar 13, Eliquis, and Xtandi products to name a few––in the latter half of the decade. “Maybe this shows how the new Pfizer is going to be going forward,” Divan says. “A much more nimble, fast-acting company that can work quickly to address situations. Whereas the vast majority of people at the beginning of the year when asked about which company would get the market first and find the vaccine would not have said Pfizer, because it’s viewed as this old, slow-moving company.”

财富中文网所刊载内容之知识产权为财富媒体知识产权有限公司及/或相关权利人专属所有或持有。未经许可,禁止进行转载、摘编、复制及建立镜像等任何使用。
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