过去几周对在美上市的三家中国新能源车企而言可谓是顺风顺水。
11月12日,继小鹏汽车发布其涨势强劲的Q3财报后,该公司挂牌于纳斯达克的股价一举跃升33%。此番变化也带动隔壁的理想汽车在11月13日发布财报的前一天,提前实现了27%的涨幅。与此同时,蔚来汽车的股价也飙升了12%。要知道在这三家车企中,只有蔚来的上市时间超过了一年。
从1月初股价下跌至4美元算起,蔚来股价今年已累计上涨1000%,市值在最高点一度逼近650亿美元,较通用汽车(General Motors)还高了100亿美元。
不过,与其说是美国投资者偏爱蔚来,还不如说是他们在集体下注中国新能源市场。目前中国政府已经设下目标,要在2035年实现电动汽车与传统汽车之间的销量对半化。面对如此大的潜在市场,国内各类车企正试图在这条赛道上“拔得头筹”。
风向转变
自2018年9月在美上市以来,蔚来在2019年期间的股价大多低于发行价。此番股市飞升,某种程度上也意味着投资者的心态发生了重大转变。
蔚来自身的商业模式调整以及销量状况改善是其一,但背后更重要的原因其实是投资者的“广撒网”心态,他们期待通过广泛投资,来抓住中国电动车领域的下一位领跑者。
“投资者们都在竞相‘狩猎’,这就让整个市场产生了溢出效应。”上海投资咨询公司Automobility的创始人及首席执行官比尔•拉索在8月接受《财富》杂志采访时说道。彼时小鹏汽车刚刚在纽交所上市,而理想汽车也刚刚在纳斯达克募资10亿美元一月有余。
拉索指出,中国早前的电动车市场往往局限于公交用车和出租车,但今年上半年特斯拉在中国市场的崛起,大大增加了个人买家的数量。特斯拉在成为中国最大的电动汽车销售商的同时,也成了中国电动车市场的一个“转折点”。可以看到,个人用户的电动车需求正在不断攀升。
两年前,蔚来股价可谓“上市即下跌”,2019年蔚来的股价较IPO之初已经跌去80%。相比之下,小鹏的确是赶上了一个好时代,在特斯拉风潮的强劲推动下,小鹏股价在上市首日即上涨了40%。
政策利好
蔚来上市之初,美国投资者对中国的电动车行业并不看好。一方面,中国政府早前对新能源汽车的补贴政策将于2020年到期;另一方面,蔚来本身的财务状况也很惨淡,在其提交招股书之时,该公司只发运了500辆汽车,手中还欠有5亿美元负债。
其实直到今日,蔚来仍未盈利。去年,为解决手头的现金流困境,蔚来与一家国有企业签了一笔10亿美元的合资协议,专门为其生产低端汽车。这次合作虽然帮助蔚来拿到了急需的资金,但也打破了蔚来长期以来以优质服务为核心的商业模式。
如今的最新政策调整总体上十分利好蔚来。今年4月,中国政府决定将廉价乘用车的补贴计划延长至2022年。除此以外,政府还将为正在研发生产电动车电池的车企提供最大程度的资金支持,该政策让蔚来这个“电池先驱”在定价上有了更大的灵活性。
除了2035年的大目标外,中国还制定了一个2025年前的短期目标,希望在10年后,包括电动、插电式混合、氢动力汽车在内的各类新能源车型,能够占到中国汽车市场销量的20%。
中国政府规定,到2035年,所有新车型必须是“环保”的,届时新能源汽车与传统混合动力车也将实现对半化。目前,中国的新能源汽车只占市场上的5%。换言之,这是一片巨大的蓝海,中国会在未来成为全球第一大电动汽车市场。(财富中文网)
编译:陈怡轩
过去几周对在美上市的三家中国新能源车企而言可谓是顺风顺水。
11月12日,继小鹏汽车发布其涨势强劲的Q3财报后,该公司挂牌于纳斯达克的股价一举跃升33%。此番变化也带动隔壁的理想汽车在11月13日发布财报的前一天,提前实现了27%的涨幅。与此同时,蔚来汽车的股价也飙升了12%。要知道在这三家车企中,只有蔚来的上市时间超过了一年。
从1月初股价下跌至4美元算起,蔚来股价今年已累计上涨1000%,市值在最高点一度逼近650亿美元,较通用汽车(General Motors)还高了100亿美元。
不过,与其说是美国投资者偏爱蔚来,还不如说是他们在集体下注中国新能源市场。目前中国政府已经设下目标,要在2035年实现电动汽车与传统汽车之间的销量对半化。面对如此大的潜在市场,国内各类车企正试图在这条赛道上“拔得头筹”。
风向转变
自2018年9月在美上市以来,蔚来在2019年期间的股价大多低于发行价。此番股市飞升,某种程度上也意味着投资者的心态发生了重大转变。
蔚来自身的商业模式调整以及销量状况改善是其一,但背后更重要的原因其实是投资者的“广撒网”心态,他们期待通过广泛投资,来抓住中国电动车领域的下一位领跑者。
“投资者们都在竞相‘狩猎’,这就让整个市场产生了溢出效应。”上海投资咨询公司Automobility的创始人及首席执行官比尔•拉索在8月接受《财富》杂志采访时说道。彼时小鹏汽车刚刚在纽交所上市,而理想汽车也刚刚在纳斯达克募资10亿美元一月有余。
拉索指出,中国早前的电动车市场往往局限于公交用车和出租车,但今年上半年特斯拉在中国市场的崛起,大大增加了个人买家的数量。特斯拉在成为中国最大的电动汽车销售商的同时,也成了中国电动车市场的一个“转折点”。可以看到,个人用户的电动车需求正在不断攀升。
两年前,蔚来股价可谓“上市即下跌”,2019年蔚来的股价较IPO之初已经跌去80%。相比之下,小鹏的确是赶上了一个好时代,在特斯拉风潮的强劲推动下,小鹏股价在上市首日即上涨了40%。
政策利好
蔚来上市之初,美国投资者对中国的电动车行业并不看好。一方面,中国政府早前对新能源汽车的补贴政策将于2020年到期;另一方面,蔚来本身的财务状况也很惨淡,在其提交招股书之时,该公司只发运了500辆汽车,手中还欠有5亿美元负债。
其实直到今日,蔚来仍未盈利。去年,为解决手头的现金流困境,蔚来与一家国有企业签了一笔10亿美元的合资协议,专门为其生产低端汽车。这次合作虽然帮助蔚来拿到了急需的资金,但也打破了蔚来长期以来以优质服务为核心的商业模式。
如今的最新政策调整总体上十分利好蔚来。今年4月,中国政府决定将廉价乘用车的补贴计划延长至2022年。除此以外,政府还将为正在研发生产电动车电池的车企提供最大程度的资金支持,该政策让蔚来这个“电池先驱”在定价上有了更大的灵活性。
除了2035年的大目标外,中国还制定了一个2025年前的短期目标,希望在10年后,包括电动、插电式混合、氢动力汽车在内的各类新能源车型,能够占到中国汽车市场销量的20%。
中国政府规定,到2035年,所有新车型必须是“环保”的,届时新能源汽车与传统混合动力车也将实现对半化。目前,中国的新能源汽车只占市场上的5%。换言之,这是一片巨大的蓝海,中国会在未来成为全球第一大电动汽车市场。(财富中文网)
编译:陈怡轩
Chinese electric vehicle makers are on a tear.
On November 12, after reporting a strong third quarter, the New York–listed shares of Guangzhou-based Xpeng jumped 33%. Nasdaq-listed Li Auto’s share price leaped 27% the same day, ahead of its own earnings report on November 13. Meanwhile, NYSE-listed Nio—the only one of the three carmakers with more than a year’s trading history—surged 12%.
That 12% jump is the latest in a yearlong rally that has boosted Nio’s share over 1,000% since January, when its shares traded at below $4. With a market cap now over $65 billion, loss-making Nio is close to $10 billion more valuable than U.S. auto industry stalwart General Motors.
But it’s likely that investors are just hedging their bets on any Chinese automaker rather than backing Nio specifically. Beijing has set a target for EV sales to account for half the market in 2035, and China’s domestic manufacturers are all seeking to lead the pack.
U-turn
Nio’s soaring stock marks a significant change in investor appetite for the six-year-old automaker. Since going public in September 2018, the company had mostly traded below its debut price, and in 2019 it received what amounted to a $1 billion government bailout.
The company has made some changes to its business model that appear to have improved sales, but Nio’s runaway stock gains are more indicative of a broader trend, with U.S. investors casting a wide net to catch the next leader in electric vehicles.
“There is a spillover of investors searching for the next big thing,” Bill Russo, founder and CEO of Shanghai-based investment advisory Automobility, told Fortune in August, shortly after Nio rival Xpeng went public in New York and barely a month after another competitor Li Auto raised over $1 billion through its Nasdaq listing.
In the first half of the year, Tesla had emerged as China’s No. 1 EV seller, signifying a “turning point” in the market, Russo said. Prior to that, industrial or fleet buyers, such as public transport and taxi firms, were responsible for most of China’s EV sales. Tesla’s rise indicated an advancing market for consumer EVs.
Buoyed by Tesla’s strong performance, Xpeng’s shares rallied 40% on their first day of trading. Compare that with Nio’s debut in 2018, when shares fell immediately and were trading at 80% below their IPO value 12 months later.
Gear change
Investor confidence in China’s EV industry seemed to be flagging when Nio debuted two years ago. Government EV subsidies that had enabled EV startups like Nio to enter the market by bolstering demand were set to expire just two years later in 2020. Nio’s financials were bleak, too. At the time it filed its prospectus, the Shanghai-based company had only shipped 500 units and was $500 million in debt.
The automaker still isn’t profitable. Last year, as Nio’s cash flow entered dire straits, it signed a $1 billion joint venture agreement with a state-owned enterprise to produce down-market cars. The partnership provided Nio with a much-needed cash injection but broke the company’s premium-focused business model.
Recent changes to Beijing’s subsidy scheme might further benefit Nio. In April, Beijing decided to extend its subsidy program until 2022 for cheaper passenger vehicles, and the government said it would provide subsidy support for EV firms that manufacture cars with swappable batteries, regardless of price. That policy gives Nio, which is pioneering battery-swapping services, greater flexibility on how it prices its models.
The subsidy extension comes as Beijing sets a target for new energy vehicles (NEVs)—meaning electric, plug-in hybrids, and hydrogen-powered cars—to account for 20% of China’s auto sales by 2025.
By 2035, all new auto sales have to be “eco-friendly,” Beijing decreed, with 50% being NEVs and the remaining half filled by regular hybrids. NEVs currently occupy around 5% of China’s market, which still makes China the world's No. 1 market for electric vehicles.