今年节日季,英国一批进步经济学家只有一个要求:在解释英国日益增多的公共债务时,不要使用个人信用卡作为比喻。
在进步政策智库(Progressive Policy Think Tank)发布的一封公开信中,经济学家们表示,包括英国国家广播公司在内,使用这种比喻解释公共财政是“不恰当的”。
经济学家们认为,这种比喻会给民众留下一种过于简单化的印象,人们会以为国家债务负担的原理与个人债务相同,借款数额会有硬性限制,而且人们在根据这种说法理解政府为减轻新冠疫情产生的经济成本可以选择的方案时,会有局限性。
经济学家们指出:“信用卡透支意味着政府的借款能力正在接近其硬极限。但事实上并非如此。经济学家们的一致共识是,目前政府不应该专注于减少赤字,而是应该通过必要的支出来保障新冠疫情之后的经济复苏。”
新冠疫情使英国付出了巨大的代价。英国政府2020至2021年的财政赤字预计将达到GDP的19%左右,创下二战以来的最高水平,因此关于如何解决这些成本和保障经济复苏等问题,引起了各界的激烈讨论。但是否应该用个人财务术语向英国民众解释这些成本的影响,一直以来都存在争议,并且被赋予了深刻的政治意义。
英国20世纪80年代的首相玛格丽特·撒切尔喜欢用家庭经济比喻国家财政。她早期经常说一句话:“任何女性只要知道经营一个家庭要面临的问题,就能够更透彻地理解管理一个国家要解决的问题。”这番话预示着她将大刀阔斧地调整英国的经济结构,包括削减公共服务。
英国前财政大臣乔治·奥斯本在削减公共支出期间,曾经说削减公共支出对于减少国家赤字是必要的,因为上一届工党政府已经“透支了”国家的信用卡。
许多经济学家一直认为,使用个人财务术语形容国家经济会造成误导:国家可以使用各种复杂的经济杠杆,包括税率和利率改革等,但个人没有这些手段,因此当个人手头拮据的时候,政府依旧能够借款和投资。
新冠疫情给包括英国在内的欧洲国家造成了许多成本,例如大幅增加公共福利和服务、减税以及向被临时裁员的雇员发放巨额工资的带薪休假计划等。英国政府的统计数据显示,截至11月中旬,随着英国开始第二轮全国封锁,约有960万人参与了该计划。与此同时,由于英国政府试图结束混乱的脱欧程序,英国可能要面临300年历史上最严重的经济危机。
政府支出计划的规模也动摇了英国正统的政治观念。在3月公布的这些计划都具有重要的历史意义,一方面是这些计划的规模,另一方面是因为它们出自保守党政府,而多年来,保守党执政期间一直在大力削减公共服务。英国政府在今年秋天公布了更多政府支出计划,包括大力投资基础设施和在全国普及清洁能源等。
但如果将英国与美国进行对比,你或许会发现用信用卡和家庭预算来比喻国家债务的奇怪之处。
截至9月,美国2020年的财政负债为3.1万亿美元,占GDP的102%。(财富中文网)
译者:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
今年节日季,英国一批进步经济学家只有一个要求:在解释英国日益增多的公共债务时,不要使用个人信用卡作为比喻。
在进步政策智库(Progressive Policy Think Tank)发布的一封公开信中,经济学家们表示,包括英国国家广播公司在内,使用这种比喻解释公共财政是“不恰当的”。
经济学家们认为,这种比喻会给民众留下一种过于简单化的印象,人们会以为国家债务负担的原理与个人债务相同,借款数额会有硬性限制,而且人们在根据这种说法理解政府为减轻新冠疫情产生的经济成本可以选择的方案时,会有局限性。
经济学家们指出:“信用卡透支意味着政府的借款能力正在接近其硬极限。但事实上并非如此。经济学家们的一致共识是,目前政府不应该专注于减少赤字,而是应该通过必要的支出来保障新冠疫情之后的经济复苏。”
新冠疫情使英国付出了巨大的代价。英国政府2020至2021年的财政赤字预计将达到GDP的19%左右,创下二战以来的最高水平,因此关于如何解决这些成本和保障经济复苏等问题,引起了各界的激烈讨论。但是否应该用个人财务术语向英国民众解释这些成本的影响,一直以来都存在争议,并且被赋予了深刻的政治意义。
英国20世纪80年代的首相玛格丽特·撒切尔喜欢用家庭经济比喻国家财政。她早期经常说一句话:“任何女性只要知道经营一个家庭要面临的问题,就能够更透彻地理解管理一个国家要解决的问题。”这番话预示着她将大刀阔斧地调整英国的经济结构,包括削减公共服务。
英国前财政大臣乔治·奥斯本在削减公共支出期间,曾经说削减公共支出对于减少国家赤字是必要的,因为上一届工党政府已经“透支了”国家的信用卡。
许多经济学家一直认为,使用个人财务术语形容国家经济会造成误导:国家可以使用各种复杂的经济杠杆,包括税率和利率改革等,但个人没有这些手段,因此当个人手头拮据的时候,政府依旧能够借款和投资。
新冠疫情给包括英国在内的欧洲国家造成了许多成本,例如大幅增加公共福利和服务、减税以及向被临时裁员的雇员发放巨额工资的带薪休假计划等。英国政府的统计数据显示,截至11月中旬,随着英国开始第二轮全国封锁,约有960万人参与了该计划。与此同时,由于英国政府试图结束混乱的脱欧程序,英国可能要面临300年历史上最严重的经济危机。
政府支出计划的规模也动摇了英国正统的政治观念。在3月公布的这些计划都具有重要的历史意义,一方面是这些计划的规模,另一方面是因为它们出自保守党政府,而多年来,保守党执政期间一直在大力削减公共服务。英国政府在今年秋天公布了更多政府支出计划,包括大力投资基础设施和在全国普及清洁能源等。
但如果将英国与美国进行对比,你或许会发现用信用卡和家庭预算来比喻国家债务的奇怪之处。
截至9月,美国2020年的财政负债为3.1万亿美元,占GDP的102%。(财富中文网)
译者:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
This holiday season, a group of progressive British economists are asking for just one thing: When it comes to explaining the country’s spiraling public debt, a personal credit card is not the metaphor you’re looking for.
The use of such metaphors to explain public finances, including by the U.K.’s state broadcaster, is “inappropriate,” the economists said in an open letter, released by the Progressive Policy Think Tank.
That’s because it gives the oversimplified impression that a country’s debt load works in the same way as an individual’s, with hard limits on borrowing, the economists argued—and that limits the understanding of what options the government has to ease the economic cost of the pandemic.
“Maxing out a credit card would imply that the government is approaching a hard limit on its ability to borrow. This is not the case,” they said. “It is the consensus amongst economists that the government should at this point in time not focus on reducing the deficit, but rather on delivering the spending necessary to secure a recovery from COVID-19.”
As the pandemic has wrought huge costs for the U.K.—the 2020–21 deficit is now expected to be about 19% of GDP, the largest ever in peacetime—the debate over how to manage such costs and ensure an economic recovery has been revived. But whether the impact of those costs should be explained to the British public in personal finance terms is actually a long-standing—and deeply politicized—source of argument in the U.K.
The household economy metaphor was a favorite of Margaret Thatcher, the country’s Prime Minister through the 1980s, who foreshadowed her restructuring of the British economy—including huge cuts to public services—with an early, often repeated quote: “Any woman who understands the problems of running a home will be nearer to understanding the problems of running a country.”
It then reappeared during a period of cuts to public spending under George Osborne, the former Chancellor of the Exchequer—the country’s chief financial minister—who said that such cuts were necessary to reduce the national deficit, as the previous Labour government had “maxed out” the country’s credit card.
Many economists have long argued that it’s misleading to use the language of personal finance to describe a country’s economy: Countries have access to a wide range of complex economic levers, including tax rates and interest rate changes, that people do not, allowing governments to borrow and invest when individuals themselves are strained.
In Europe, including the U.K., pandemic costs include huge expansions to public benefits and services, tax breaks, and furlough programs that have paid millions of salaries as employees were temporarily laid off. As of mid-November, in the midst of the country’s second nationwide lockdown, around 9.6 million people were on the program, according to government statistics. Meanwhile, the U.K. economy is facing down what is predicted to be the worst economic crisis in 300 years, just as the government attempts to finalize its messy divorce with the EU.
The scale of that spending has also overturned political orthodoxy in the U.K. Those spending programs—first announced in March—were historic both in their sheer size and also for coming from a Conservative government, which for years had presided over massive cuts to public services. More government spending, including a huge push to invest in infrastructure and a national expansion of clean energy, has been announced this fall.
But if you’re going to compare the U.K. to the U.S., a credit card and a household budget as metaphors for national debt may sound appropriately quaint.
As of September, the U.S. fiscal debt for 2020 was $3.1 trillion—102% of GDP.