网友“剁手”热情激增，美国电商能否经受住考验？
王波非（Phil Wahba）
2020-12-03
今年电商氛围最浓厚的“黑色星期五”刚刚结束，实体零售商又要迎来一次大规模考验。“网络星期一”将考验实体零售商能否成功处理今年节日季激增的在线需求。
Adobe Analytics跟踪了80家大型电商平台上的数字交易。该公司在11月30日预测，在线销售额可能达到127亿美元，同比增长35%。今年突然增加的在线销售额，可能让零售商更加疲于应付。
《财富》杂志在11月27日曾经报道，美国各地的购物商场门可罗雀，因为随着新冠感染率激增，购物者都选择留在家中，而不是蜂拥到商场采购。事实上，据RetailNext统计，“黑五”的店内购物者数量较去年减少了48%。
人们选择了线上购物：Adobe Analytics统计，在“黑五”期间，在线销售额达到90亿美元，较去年增长了22%。这一数字仍然低于预期，因为今年零售商从10月中旬就开始推广在线交易，比往年更早采取行动。
今年，从电视到慢炖锅再到芭比娃娃套装，零售商将在“网络星期一”对各种商品提供大减价优惠。但这一次，它们不仅要与亚马逊（Amazon）竞争。亚马逊在黑五周末的销售额增长了30%。许多零售商采取的策略是为了尽量提前销售，以减少12月销售激增的情况，从而避免出现脱销和包裹配送延误等问题。
穆迪（Moody’s）的副总裁查理•奥谢伊告诉《财富》杂志：“快递公司绝对没有办法处理大量包裹。”而且尽管购物者几周来一直在挑选商品，但考虑到配送紧张，他们依旧会在11月30日进行线上采购。奥谢伊继续说道：“我要提前多久下单才能够保证买得到我想要的商品，我可以相信快递公司会按时送达吗？”
有业内人士创造了一个词“shipageddon”，代表快递公司没有额外的能力运输更多商品。赛富时（Salesforce）预测，由于需求超出了快递公司的配送能力，在11月中旬到圣诞前夜之间发货的包裹，会有5%出现延误。
例如，Abercrombie & Fitch的网站上告诉购物者，只能够保证不晚于12月4日购买的商品可以在圣诞前夜之前送达，除非购物者愿意额外支付运费。或者，购物者能够使用路边自提服务。
实际上，塔吉特（Target）、百思买（Best Buy）和沃尔玛（Walmart）等公司一直在利用其大量路边自提设置，以节约货运成本，为在线购物者提供更多选择，并使购物者确信可以尽早拿到所购买的商品。这些投资带来了丰厚的回报：在最近一个季度，百思买的在线销售额增长了174%，塔吉特的在线销售额增长了155%，沃尔玛的在线销售额接近翻了一番。
因此，尽管过去几周线上交易增多，但“网络星期一”并不会虎头蛇尾。距离圣诞节只有三个半星期的时间，因此零售商们希望人们现在开始在线购物。否则，购物者要么支付更高的价格，要么承担商品无法按时送达的风险。
Adobe Digital Insights的主管泰勒•施赖纳说：“建议购物者尽快开始购买圣诞礼物，因为未来几周，在圣诞节之际及时运送货物的成本会变得更高。”（财富中文网）
翻译：刘进龙
审校：汪皓
今年电商氛围最浓厚的“黑色星期五”刚刚结束，实体零售商又要迎来一次大规模考验。“网络星期一”将考验实体零售商能否成功处理今年节日季激增的在线需求。
Adobe Analytics跟踪了80家大型电商平台上的数字交易。该公司在11月30日预测，在线销售额可能达到127亿美元，同比增长35%。今年突然增加的在线销售额，可能让零售商更加疲于应付。
《财富》杂志在11月27日曾经报道，美国各地的购物商场门可罗雀，因为随着新冠感染率激增，购物者都选择留在家中，而不是蜂拥到商场采购。事实上，据RetailNext统计，“黑五”的店内购物者数量较去年减少了48%。
人们选择了线上购物：Adobe Analytics统计，在“黑五”期间，在线销售额达到90亿美元，较去年增长了22%。这一数字仍然低于预期，因为今年零售商从10月中旬就开始推广在线交易，比往年更早采取行动。
今年，从电视到慢炖锅再到芭比娃娃套装，零售商将在“网络星期一”对各种商品提供大减价优惠。但这一次，它们不仅要与亚马逊（Amazon）竞争。亚马逊在黑五周末的销售额增长了30%。许多零售商采取的策略是为了尽量提前销售，以减少12月销售激增的情况，从而避免出现脱销和包裹配送延误等问题。
穆迪（Moody’s）的副总裁查理•奥谢伊告诉《财富》杂志：“快递公司绝对没有办法处理大量包裹。”而且尽管购物者几周来一直在挑选商品，但考虑到配送紧张，他们依旧会在11月30日进行线上采购。奥谢伊继续说道：“我要提前多久下单才能够保证买得到我想要的商品，我可以相信快递公司会按时送达吗？”
有业内人士创造了一个词“shipageddon”，代表快递公司没有额外的能力运输更多商品。赛富时（Salesforce）预测，由于需求超出了快递公司的配送能力，在11月中旬到圣诞前夜之间发货的包裹，会有5%出现延误。
例如，Abercrombie & Fitch的网站上告诉购物者，只能够保证不晚于12月4日购买的商品可以在圣诞前夜之前送达，除非购物者愿意额外支付运费。或者，购物者能够使用路边自提服务。
实际上，塔吉特（Target）、百思买（Best Buy）和沃尔玛（Walmart）等公司一直在利用其大量路边自提设置，以节约货运成本，为在线购物者提供更多选择，并使购物者确信可以尽早拿到所购买的商品。这些投资带来了丰厚的回报：在最近一个季度，百思买的在线销售额增长了174%，塔吉特的在线销售额增长了155%，沃尔玛的在线销售额接近翻了一番。
因此，尽管过去几周线上交易增多，但“网络星期一”并不会虎头蛇尾。距离圣诞节只有三个半星期的时间，因此零售商们希望人们现在开始在线购物。否则，购物者要么支付更高的价格，要么承担商品无法按时送达的风险。
Adobe Digital Insights的主管泰勒•施赖纳说：“建议购物者尽快开始购买圣诞礼物，因为未来几周，在圣诞节之际及时运送货物的成本会变得更高。”（财富中文网）
翻译：刘进龙
审校：汪皓
Coming on the heels of the most e-commerce intensive Black Friday yet, Cyber Monday promises to be a big new test of whether physical retailers will succeed at managing surging online demand this holiday season.
Adobe Analytics, which tracks digital transactions on 80 major e-commerce sites, expects online sales could reach as much as $12.7 billion on November 30, up 35% from a year earlier. That is likely to further strain retailers coping with unusually high online sales this year.
As Fortune reported on November 27, malls across the country were very quiet as shoppers stayed on the couch rather than dive into crowds at a time of surging COVID-19 infection rates. Indeed, according to RetailNext, the number of in-store shoppers on Black Friday was down by 48% from the previous year.
Instead shoppers went online: According to Adobe Analytics, online sales hit $9 billion Friday, a 22% increase over last year. That was below expectations because of retailers doling out online deals since mid-October, far earlier than usual.
And this year, once again, retailers are offering deep discounts on Cyber Monday on everything from televisions to Crock-Pots to Barbie Playsets. But this time around, it's not only to compete with Amazon, whose sales rose 30% over the long weekend. For many retailers, this strategy is intended to bring sales forward as much as possible to reduce any surge in December that would lead to running out of stock and delayed packages.
"There is absolutely no way that the carriers will be able to keep up with the volume," Moody’s vice president Charlie O’Shea tells Fortune. And so even as shoppers have been sifting through deals for weeks, they will turn out online on November 30 because of that. "How early do I buy to make sure I get it, and am I going trust their ability to get it on time?" O'Shea continues.
Some in the industry have coined the term "shipageddon," where there is simply no more capacity to ship any additional items. Salesforce has forecast some 5% of packages shipped between mid-November and Christmas Eve could be late because of demand outstripping capacity.
Abercrombie & Fitch, for instance, has told shoppers on its website that Dec. 4 is the cutoff to be sure items will arrive by Christmas Eve—unless they're willing to pay extra shipping. Otherwise, they will be nudged to use curbside pickup.
Indeed, retailers like Target, Best Buy, and Walmart are banking on their expansive curbside pickup setup to save on shipping costs, provide online shoppers with additional options, and offer customers more certainty about getting their items. Those investments have paid off handsomely: In its most recent quarter, Best Buy saw online sales grow 174%, while at Target they rose 155%, and at Walmart they nearly doubled.
And so Cyber Monday won't be anticlimactic despite the stream of deals in the last few weeks. Retailers want to get people shopping online now, given there are only three and a half weeks left before Christmas. Otherwise shoppers will have to pay more or risk not getting their items on time.
"Shoppers are encouraged to do their gift buying soon, as shipping in time for Christmas will get more expensive in the coming weeks," says Taylor Schreiner, director at Adobe Digital Insights.
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