高盛力挺特斯拉：还能再涨
David Z.Morris
2020-12-07
随着特斯拉上周继续暴涨，高盛分析师将其股票评级由“中性”上调为“买入”，并将特斯拉一年内的目标股价由455美元上调为了780美元。
特斯拉近期一直好消息不断，五个季度实现盈利、成功被纳入标普500指数，埃隆•马斯克还被《财富》评选为了年度最佳商人。高盛在此基础上的一番操作更是锦上添花。
高盛就此次上调例举原因如下：首先，高盛分析师普遍认为目前市场上的电动车电池价格下跌速度快于预期。其次，未来几十年内越来越多的监管机构即将禁止内燃机销售。综合以上因素，电动车的普及速度必将加快，高盛预计，到2030年，电动汽车将占全球汽车销量的18%，且该比例有望在2035年上升至29%。美国和西欧地区的电动车销量可在届时达到50%左右。
此外，即将上台的拜登政府也会利好特斯拉前景。高盛的报告指出：“奥巴马在任期内曾要求汽车燃油消耗量要在2025年缩减到55英里/加仑左右，以此为起点，我们认为电动车的销量必将翻倍，尤其是在没有算入额外补贴的情况下。” 高盛分析师还表示，特斯拉的能源及自动驾驶业务价值可能也会高于此前预期。
和高盛一样对特斯拉目标股价持超乐观态度的机构还有很多。Wedbush证券分析师丹• 艾维斯上周同样提高了该股评级，虽然他对特斯拉一年内目标股价的预期仍低于560美元，但他已将该股“牛市”目标重定为800至1000美元。艾维斯对《财富》表示，电动车需求“真的开始变化，尤其是在中国”。他指出，今年电动汽车销量只占全球3%，但这一比例在2025年有望达到10%。特斯拉显然是其中的领跑者，到2022年，特斯拉在中国的市场比例将从15%上升到40%。”
然而特斯拉的风险性依旧不可忽视，所有分析师报告均对此点有所强调。正如《财富》早前几期特斯拉专题报道所指出的那样，这家车企的商业模式存在根本性问题，并非实打实地来自汽车销售，反而更依赖于向其他企业出售“碳信用额度”。
尽管如此，高盛依然在报告中强调，今年实在不该看衰特斯拉。分析师们写道，他们也曾在6月份下调过特斯拉的股票评级，因为当时特斯拉的降价幅度超出预期，还有一些报道称Model Y在制造方面面临挑战，但高盛此番指出“我们早前预测特斯拉会‘在未来20年增长放缓’是不正确的，自从高盛在6月11日对其下调评级以来，这只股票上涨了192%，而标普500指数上涨了22%。”（财富中文网）
编译:陈怡轩
随着特斯拉上周继续暴涨，高盛分析师将其股票评级由“中性”上调为“买入”，并将特斯拉一年内的目标股价由455美元上调为了780美元。
特斯拉近期一直好消息不断，五个季度实现盈利、成功被纳入标普500指数，埃隆•马斯克还被《财富》评选为了年度最佳商人。高盛在此基础上的一番操作更是锦上添花。
高盛就此次上调例举原因如下：首先，高盛分析师普遍认为目前市场上的电动车电池价格下跌速度快于预期。其次，未来几十年内越来越多的监管机构即将禁止内燃机销售。综合以上因素，电动车的普及速度必将加快，高盛预计，到2030年，电动汽车将占全球汽车销量的18%，且该比例有望在2035年上升至29%。美国和西欧地区的电动车销量可在届时达到50%左右。
此外，即将上台的拜登政府也会利好特斯拉前景。高盛的报告指出：“奥巴马在任期内曾要求汽车燃油消耗量要在2025年缩减到55英里/加仑左右，以此为起点，我们认为电动车的销量必将翻倍，尤其是在没有算入额外补贴的情况下。” 高盛分析师还表示，特斯拉的能源及自动驾驶业务价值可能也会高于此前预期。
和高盛一样对特斯拉目标股价持超乐观态度的机构还有很多。Wedbush证券分析师丹• 艾维斯上周同样提高了该股评级，虽然他对特斯拉一年内目标股价的预期仍低于560美元，但他已将该股“牛市”目标重定为800至1000美元。艾维斯对《财富》表示，电动车需求“真的开始变化，尤其是在中国”。他指出，今年电动汽车销量只占全球3%，但这一比例在2025年有望达到10%。特斯拉显然是其中的领跑者，到2022年，特斯拉在中国的市场比例将从15%上升到40%。”
然而特斯拉的风险性依旧不可忽视，所有分析师报告均对此点有所强调。正如《财富》早前几期特斯拉专题报道所指出的那样，这家车企的商业模式存在根本性问题，并非实打实地来自汽车销售，反而更依赖于向其他企业出售“碳信用额度”。
尽管如此，高盛依然在报告中强调，今年实在不该看衰特斯拉。分析师们写道，他们也曾在6月份下调过特斯拉的股票评级，因为当时特斯拉的降价幅度超出预期，还有一些报道称Model Y在制造方面面临挑战，但高盛此番指出“我们早前预测特斯拉会‘在未来20年增长放缓’是不正确的，自从高盛在6月11日对其下调评级以来，这只股票上涨了192%，而标普500指数上涨了22%。”（财富中文网）
编译:陈怡轩
Tesla got a major boost this past week as analysts at Goldman Sachs upgraded the stock from neutral to buy, driving their 12-month price target from $455 to $780.
That's capped a run of positive news for the company, including its fifth consecutive quarter of profits, the announcement that it would be added to the S&P 500, and of course Elon Musk being named Fortune's Businessperson of the Year.
Goldman's analysts cited a few reasons for their change of heart. They believe EV adoption is accelerating due to battery prices falling faster than they had expected, combined with an increase in regulatory proposals to limit or ban the sale of internal combustion engines over the next few decades. As a result, the analysts "now expect EVs to comprise 18% of sales globally in 2030 and 29% in 2035 (with 50% adoption in 2035 in both the US and in Western Europe)."
The incoming Biden administration also bodes well for Tesla's prospects. "Using the prior Obama plan of ~55 MPG of corporate average fuel economy by 2025 as a starting point for analysis purposes, we believe that companies may need a double digit percent of sales to come from EVs to comply with stricter emissions standards especially if there is no bonus treatment for EVs in the calculation," the report states. What's more, the Goldman analysts also suggest Tesla's Energy and FSD (full self driving) businesses could be worth more than previously assumed.
Though Goldman's price target of $780 might strike some as overly bullish, they aren't the only ones feeling optimistic. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives also upgraded the stock last week, sticking a "bull case" target of a $800-$1,000 on TSLA shares (his 12-month target, meanwhile, is below Goldman's at $560). As my colleague Anne Sraders wrote, "electric vehicle demand 'is really starting to inflect, especially in China,' Ives tells Fortune. He notes globally 3% of auto sales are EV, and 'We think that now has potential to be 10% by 2025. With Tesla being the clear leader, we believe China could represent 40% of sales by 2022, up from 15% today.'"
To be sure, every analyst report about Tesla is filled with caveats and risk factors, and as my colleague Shawn Tully has written about extensively for Fortune, there are fundamental questions about Tesla's business model and it's over-reliance on the business of selling emissions credits.
That said, the Goldman report also highlights how tough it has been to bet against Tesla this year. The analysts write that they had downgraded the stock in June after Tesla lowered prices more than had been expected and there had been some reports of manufacturing challenges with the Model Y. "This concern that we had about a 2H20 growth slowdown was incorrect, and since our downgrade on 6/11/20 the stock is +192% vs. the S&P 500 +22%," they wrote.
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