2020年,没有哪个行业像科技行业一样极速增长。
在新冠疫情期间,有越来越多的机构和消费者对所谓的居家办公类公司趋之若鹜。主投科技行业的方舟投资(ARK Invest)的创始人及首席执行官凯西·伍德说:“世界发生了永久的变化。”
她在接受《财富》杂志采访时表示:“企业和消费者一旦用上了更便宜、更方便、更快捷、应答更有创意的新技术时,就不会再回头了。”
伍德以看好特斯拉(Tesla)、专注于“颠覆式创新”而闻名,她认为,“旧世界”科技和“新世界”科技之间的分界线已泾渭分明。但无论是投资新世界还是旧世界,投资者都要避免踩雷。
“无论投资哪个‘世界’的股票,我都会睁大双眼。我会看看那些市值是销售额40到70倍的股票,我会想,‘好吧,可能它们要花几年的时间达到这个估值,所以我认为它们不会是市场上回报最高的成长型股票。’”伍德说。但另一方面,“我认为,新冠病毒加快了市场远离守旧派的步伐。”
伍德特别指出,思科(Cisco)、英特尔(Intel)和甲骨文(Oracle)等公司属于“旧世界”。伍德说:“你可以看看思科旗下Webex和Zoom的区别。”(她偏爱Zoom,方舟投资持有Zoom的股票。)她表示,这些产品更依托于“旧世界遗留的数据库技术”,股票在2020年的表现不佳(英特尔和思科股价去年都跌了,分别跌了16.8%和6.7%)。伍德预测,“我仍然不认为它们今年会(表现出色)。”
伍德称,尽管其中一些股票的“价格与该公司缓慢的增长速度相符”,她仍然认为投资者应该避开这些股票。但这并不意味着,每一家快速增长的新兴科技公司都应该得到现在这么高的估值。
她说:“我也会远离那些人们看不懂的公司股票,人们还在试图理解这些公司到底在干什么,应该如何融入新世界。”
这其中就包括CrowdStrike和Snowflake等云计算和网络安全公司,尽管前者股价去年大涨324% (Snowflake于去年9月首次公开募股),但这两家公司目前仍然处于亏损状态。她说:“它们必须要涨很多倍才行。”(伍德其实很喜欢CrowdStrike,但她建议投资者将仓位保持在最低,积极寻找市场调整的机会。)
伍德表示,她正在寻找“下一家Facebook、苹果、亚马逊、Netflix和谷歌,下一个科技巨头”。她目前在关注基因组学和社交商业等领域的公司,关注她认为2021年“被低估”的公司,比如Teladoc、Roku,当然少不了特斯拉。(财富中文网)
译者:Agatha
2020年,没有哪个行业像科技行业一样极速增长。
在新冠疫情期间,有越来越多的机构和消费者对所谓的居家办公类公司趋之若鹜。主投科技行业的方舟投资(ARK Invest)的创始人及首席执行官凯西·伍德说:“世界发生了永久的变化。”
她在接受《财富》杂志采访时表示:“企业和消费者一旦用上了更便宜、更方便、更快捷、应答更有创意的新技术时,就不会再回头了。”
伍德以看好特斯拉(Tesla)、专注于“颠覆式创新”而闻名,她认为,“旧世界”科技和“新世界”科技之间的分界线已泾渭分明。但无论是投资新世界还是旧世界,投资者都要避免踩雷。
“无论投资哪个‘世界’的股票,我都会睁大双眼。我会看看那些市值是销售额40到70倍的股票,我会想,‘好吧,可能它们要花几年的时间达到这个估值,所以我认为它们不会是市场上回报最高的成长型股票。’”伍德说。但另一方面,“我认为,新冠病毒加快了市场远离守旧派的步伐。”
伍德特别指出,思科(Cisco)、英特尔(Intel)和甲骨文(Oracle)等公司属于“旧世界”。伍德说:“你可以看看思科旗下Webex和Zoom的区别。”(她偏爱Zoom,方舟投资持有Zoom的股票。)她表示,这些产品更依托于“旧世界遗留的数据库技术”,股票在2020年的表现不佳(英特尔和思科股价去年都跌了,分别跌了16.8%和6.7%)。伍德预测,“我仍然不认为它们今年会(表现出色)。”
伍德称,尽管其中一些股票的“价格与该公司缓慢的增长速度相符”,她仍然认为投资者应该避开这些股票。但这并不意味着,每一家快速增长的新兴科技公司都应该得到现在这么高的估值。
她说:“我也会远离那些人们看不懂的公司股票,人们还在试图理解这些公司到底在干什么,应该如何融入新世界。”
这其中就包括CrowdStrike和Snowflake等云计算和网络安全公司,尽管前者股价去年大涨324% (Snowflake于去年9月首次公开募股),但这两家公司目前仍然处于亏损状态。她说:“它们必须要涨很多倍才行。”(伍德其实很喜欢CrowdStrike,但她建议投资者将仓位保持在最低,积极寻找市场调整的机会。)
伍德表示,她正在寻找“下一家Facebook、苹果、亚马逊、Netflix和谷歌,下一个科技巨头”。她目前在关注基因组学和社交商业等领域的公司,关注她认为2021年“被低估”的公司,比如Teladoc、Roku,当然少不了特斯拉。(财富中文网)
译者:Agatha
There are few sectors that have seen such rapid growth as tech in 2020.
Businesses and consumers have increasingly flocked to so-called work-from-home companies during the pandemic. And according to Cathie Wood, the founder and CEO of tech-focused firm ARK Invest, "the world has changed for good."
"When businesses and consumers adopt new technologies that are cheaper, more convenient, faster, more creative in their response, there’s no turning back," she told Fortune.
Wood, who's known for her bullishness on Tesla and focus on "disruptive innovation," suggests the bifurcation between what she calls "old world" tech and "new world" tech has become clear. But investors may want to avoid certain stocks on both sides.
"At either end of the spectrum, I would be careful. I would look at the names that are 40 to 70 times sales and say, 'Okay, they’re probably going to spend the next few years growing in to that valuation, so I don’t think they’ll be the most productive growth stocks out there,'" Wood argues. But on the flip side, "the coronavirus, I think, has accelerated the move away from the old guard."
In particular Wood points to names like Cisco, Intel, and Oracle as "the old world." "You can see the difference between a Webex, which Cisco owns, and Zoom," Wood argues (she's partial to Zoom, a stock ARK owns). Those stocks, which she says operate on more "old world legacy database technology," didn't perform as well in 2020 (Intel and Cisco were both in the red for the year, down 16.8% and 6.7% respectively). "And I still don't think they will [perform as well]" this year, predicts Wood.
Even though some of those stocks are "priced accordingly" for their slower growth, Wood says she still thinks investors should steer clear. But that doesn't mean that every newfangled tech company with rapid growth deserves the astronomical valuations they're being assigned.
"I would also stay away from stocks that I still think people are trying to understand exactly what they do and how they fit into the new world," she says.
That includes cloud and cybersecurity names like CrowdStrike and Snowflake, both of which remain unprofitable despite the former trading up a massive 324% in the past year (Snowflake IPO'd in September). "That’s a lot of multiple they’ll have to grow into," she says. (Wood does actually like CrowdStrike, but she suggests investors keep their position very minimal and look for corrections.)
Instead, Wood says she's on the hunt to find the "next FAANGs, the next big thing." She's eyeing companies in areas like genomics and social commerce, and watching names she deems "underappreciated" in 2021, like Teladoc, Roku—and, of course, Tesla.