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高盛:这只股票将成本年最牛科技股

Anne Sraders
2021-02-15

今年,“五巨头”其中之一的股价或许会涨得更厉害。

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谷歌本身就处于“五巨头”中不可撼动的位置,也是疫情中的一个赢家。

2020年,美国科技五巨头(即脸书、亚马逊、苹果、微软和谷歌母公司Alphabet)在美股市场上一枝独秀,业绩抢眼。今年,“五巨头”其中之一的股价或许会涨得更厉害。

至少,高盛的一位理财经理是这样认为的。

高盛资产管理公司科技机会基金会的常务董事、理财经理布鲁克·戴恩对《财富》表示:“我认为,谷歌有望成为今年表现最好的超大型股。”

谷歌本身就处于“五巨头”中不可撼动的位置,它也是疫情中的一个赢家,去年它的回报率超过了30%。戴恩认为,在“后疫情时代”,谷歌的股票会显得更有吸引力。

特别是2021年,互联网广告业务将迎来再次复苏,谷歌在这上面处于非常有利的位置。“我们认为,去年一些因疫情停摆的重要行业,今年会回归市场,并且重新开始支出。那么,企业会出现哪种支出模式?他们会如何利用互联网广告来推动需求?人们又会首先在哪个网站上搜索?想清楚这些问题,你会发现,2021年,搜索业务将会加速发展。”

戴恩认为,随着酒店、会展、旅游等行业的回归,以及随着“所有人开始接种疫苗,和经济的重新开放”,谷歌“在核心的搜索市场上将得到双重刺激,应该会促进业务的发展。”

这些也符合戴恩的2021年投资战略,即“在周期性复苏和‘后疫苗时期’,那找那些能够在基本面中看到真正加速复苏迹象的公司,同时我们也不要为那些基本面付出太多成本。”目前Alphabet的预期市盈率大约为31倍,价码不可谓不高,但还是比其他一些科技巨头便宜得多。

不过戴恩同时指出:“虽然我很喜欢谷歌,但我们对这些大型科技公司的持股基本上已经越来越少了。”尽管去年大型科技公司的表现非常亮眼。

除了部分行业回归带来的广告收入,戴恩认为,谷歌最近宣布将提供更加透明的云服务,这也是一个积极的迹象。(他解释道:“企业一般不愿给予更高的透明度,除非他们非常自信,认为自己讲的故事是一个好故事。”)

当然,随着监管力度的加大,谷歌今年也会面临不少阻力(谷歌最近遭到了自去年秋天以来的第三次反垄断诉讼)。一些华尔街人士预计,随着民主党力量在国会占据上风,国会很可能会加强对科技五巨头的审查。

不过戴恩认为,这些威胁并不严重:“看看以前的诉讼路径,你就会发现,这些问题都不是结构性的,也不会影响让谷歌提高收入、利润和自由现金流的经济基础。我只是认为,谷歌的风险要比市场上的其他玩家小一些。”(财富中文网)

译者:朴成奎

谷歌本身就处于“五巨头”中不可撼动的位置,也是疫情中的一个赢家。

2020年,美国科技五巨头(即脸书、亚马逊、苹果、微软和谷歌母公司Alphabet)在美股市场上一枝独秀,业绩抢眼。今年,“五巨头”其中之一的股价或许会涨得更厉害。

至少,高盛的一位理财经理是这样认为的。

高盛资产管理公司科技机会基金会的常务董事、理财经理布鲁克·戴恩对《财富》表示:“我认为,谷歌有望成为今年表现最好的超大型股。”

谷歌本身就处于“五巨头”中不可撼动的位置,它也是疫情中的一个赢家,去年它的回报率超过了30%。戴恩认为,在“后疫情时代”,谷歌的股票会显得更有吸引力。

特别是2021年,互联网广告业务将迎来再次复苏,谷歌在这上面处于非常有利的位置。“我们认为,去年一些因疫情停摆的重要行业,今年会回归市场,并且重新开始支出。那么,企业会出现哪种支出模式?他们会如何利用互联网广告来推动需求?人们又会首先在哪个网站上搜索?想清楚这些问题,你会发现,2021年,搜索业务将会加速发展。”

戴恩认为,随着酒店、会展、旅游等行业的回归,以及随着“所有人开始接种疫苗,和经济的重新开放”,谷歌“在核心的搜索市场上将得到双重刺激,应该会促进业务的发展。”

这些也符合戴恩的2021年投资战略,即“在周期性复苏和‘后疫苗时期’,那找那些能够在基本面中看到真正加速复苏迹象的公司,同时我们也不要为那些基本面付出太多成本。”目前Alphabet的预期市盈率大约为31倍,价码不可谓不高,但还是比其他一些科技巨头便宜得多。

不过戴恩同时指出:“虽然我很喜欢谷歌,但我们对这些大型科技公司的持股基本上已经越来越少了。”尽管去年大型科技公司的表现非常亮眼。

除了部分行业回归带来的广告收入,戴恩认为,谷歌最近宣布将提供更加透明的云服务,这也是一个积极的迹象。(他解释道:“企业一般不愿给予更高的透明度,除非他们非常自信,认为自己讲的故事是一个好故事。”)

当然,随着监管力度的加大,谷歌今年也会面临不少阻力(谷歌最近遭到了自去年秋天以来的第三次反垄断诉讼)。一些华尔街人士预计,随着民主党力量在国会占据上风,国会很可能会加强对科技五巨头的审查。

不过戴恩认为,这些威胁并不严重:“看看以前的诉讼路径,你就会发现,这些问题都不是结构性的,也不会影响让谷歌提高收入、利润和自由现金流的经济基础。我只是认为,谷歌的风险要比市场上的其他玩家小一些。”(财富中文网)

译者:朴成奎

The FAAMG stocks as a group had a roaring 2020, but one of those Big Tech names might just rise above the pack this year.

At least, that's what one Goldman Sachs portfolio manager is betting.

"Google I think is poised to be the best performing of those very mega cap large names," Brook Dane, a managing director and portfolio manager of the Technology Opportunities Fund at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, tells Fortune.

Despite Google's venerable status among the FAAMGs—now categorized as Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet (Google's parent company)—as a winner of the pandemic (not to mention its over 30% return last year), Goldman's Dane thinks the stock still looks attractive as, surprisingly, a post-pandemic play.

In particular he argues Google is poised to benefit as internet advertising picks up again in 2021. "In our minds, you’re going to see some of the big sectors that had been absent the market because of the pandemic—so think travel, hospitality, live events—those businesses will return to the marketplace and return to spending," says Dane. "When you also think about how companies approach their spending patterns and how they use internet advertising to drive demand, one of the first things people return to is search, and you would expect search businesses to accelerate as we move through 2021."

Indeed, he sees a scenario where search improves as hospitality, live events, and travel return as "everyone starts to get vaccinated and the economy reopens," which should give Google a "double-kicker in their core search market that should start to drive business."

That all fits into Dane's strategy for 2021 of "looking for names where we think as we get to more of a cyclical recovery, post-vaccine, you could see real acceleration in the fundamentals and we’re not being asked to pay too much for those fundamentals," Dane says. Currently Alphabet is trading at around 31 times forward earnings, a heady price tag yet much less expensive than some of its tech peers.

Indeed, Dane notes "notwithstanding my love for Google, we’ve moved to an increasingly underweight position in those [mega cap] names" coming off such a big year for the class.

But apart from beleaguered businesses boosting their ad spend once more, Dane thinks Google's recent announcement they will be more transparent around their cloud business (GCP) is a positive sign ("Companies don’t give more transparency unless they’re very confident the story they’re about to tell is a good story," he says).

To be sure, Google is facing plenty of headwinds this year as regulatory issues heat up (the company was recently slapped with its third antitrust lawsuit since last fall). And some on the Street expect the new narrowly Democrat-controlled Congress to up the scrutiny on the FAAMG names moving forward.

But Dane for one largely brushes those threats off: "When you look at ... where the first path of the [law]suits have been, it’s nothing that's structural and would impair the economics from how Google drives revenues, profit, and free cash flows," Dane suggests. "I just think Google is less at risk than the other players out there."

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