这是一条困难之路。
自今年年初至2月23日,在家用设备和健身应用程序领域里颇有名气的健身设备制造商Peloton的股价下跌了16.4%,这让其成为了2021年表现最差的纳斯达克100成分股。
在新冠疫情期间,城市封锁迫使美国各地的健身房关闭,数百万民众涌向Peloton的室内固定自行车和健身课程产品。截至目前,Peloton拥有近200万的数字订阅用户,每个人每月支付39美元的线上课程费用;Peloton自行车本身的价格更是高达2500美元。
在2019年9月上市后,Peloton曾经一度取得成功。截至2020年6月30日的财年中,Peloton的销售额为18亿美元,较前一年翻了一番。在接近这一峰值时,Peloton的股价上涨了六倍,达到147.17美元,该公司的市值升至460亿美元,与福特汽车市值(Ford Motor Co)相当。
如此之高的股价也带来了不少质疑声。质疑者想知道,健身房重新开业之后,那些在家锻炼的习惯是否还会持续下去,或者说,这只是疫情带来的一时风尚而已?
在本月早些时候,蒙特利尔银行资本市场(BMO Capital Markets)的分析师西蒙•西格尔在接受《财富》杂志采访时表示,Peloton的股票“脱离现实”,应该在33美元左右交易——这一数字比当时的实际股价低了近80%。
但仍然有人相信Peloton将会反弹。麦格理集团(Macquarie Group)的生活方式分析师保罗•戈尔丁和媒体技术分析师蒂姆•诺伦近期在一份有关健身技术未来的报告中提出预测,到今年年底,Peloton的股价将升至190美元。
他们在报告中写道:“我们预计FitTechs将继续凭借自身优势继续实现增长,跨越音乐、品牌推广、生活视频内容和电子竞技等内容类型,带来新的许可和广告收入机会。”
去年11月,Peloton曾经上了头条。当时Peloton宣布流行女歌手碧昂斯将与该公司合作,以她的音乐和个人品牌为灵感开发一系列课程。
戈尔丁在接受《财富》杂志采访时说:“我们不认为Peloton只是因为新冠疫情而顺风顺水,一路高歌。我们认为,这是健康领域消费方式的结构性进化。”
与此同时,Peloton也面临着来自许多同类公司的激烈竞争,诸多竞争对手都想从Peloton的成功中获利。最引人注目的是,苹果(Apple)在2020年12月推出了Fitness+,而Lululemon在2020年6月斥资5亿美元收购了Mirror。此外,耐克(Nike)、安德玛(Under Armour)和Strava近期都在加快开发自己的健身应用程序。(财富中文网)
编译:杨二一
这是一条困难之路。
自今年年初至2月23日,在家用设备和健身应用程序领域里颇有名气的健身设备制造商Peloton的股价下跌了16.4%,这让其成为了2021年表现最差的纳斯达克100成分股。
在新冠疫情期间,城市封锁迫使美国各地的健身房关闭,数百万民众涌向Peloton的室内固定自行车和健身课程产品。截至目前,Peloton拥有近200万的数字订阅用户,每个人每月支付39美元的线上课程费用;Peloton自行车本身的价格更是高达2500美元。
在2019年9月上市后,Peloton曾经一度取得成功。截至2020年6月30日的财年中,Peloton的销售额为18亿美元,较前一年翻了一番。在接近这一峰值时,Peloton的股价上涨了六倍,达到147.17美元,该公司的市值升至460亿美元,与福特汽车市值(Ford Motor Co)相当。
如此之高的股价也带来了不少质疑声。质疑者想知道,健身房重新开业之后,那些在家锻炼的习惯是否还会持续下去,或者说,这只是疫情带来的一时风尚而已?
在本月早些时候,蒙特利尔银行资本市场(BMO Capital Markets)的分析师西蒙•西格尔在接受《财富》杂志采访时表示,Peloton的股票“脱离现实”,应该在33美元左右交易——这一数字比当时的实际股价低了近80%。
但仍然有人相信Peloton将会反弹。麦格理集团(Macquarie Group)的生活方式分析师保罗•戈尔丁和媒体技术分析师蒂姆•诺伦近期在一份有关健身技术未来的报告中提出预测,到今年年底,Peloton的股价将升至190美元。
他们在报告中写道:“我们预计FitTechs将继续凭借自身优势继续实现增长,跨越音乐、品牌推广、生活视频内容和电子竞技等内容类型,带来新的许可和广告收入机会。”
去年11月,Peloton曾经上了头条。当时Peloton宣布流行女歌手碧昂斯将与该公司合作,以她的音乐和个人品牌为灵感开发一系列课程。
戈尔丁在接受《财富》杂志采访时说:“我们不认为Peloton只是因为新冠疫情而顺风顺水,一路高歌。我们认为,这是健康领域消费方式的结构性进化。”
与此同时,Peloton也面临着来自许多同类公司的激烈竞争,诸多竞争对手都想从Peloton的成功中获利。最引人注目的是,苹果(Apple)在2020年12月推出了Fitness+,而Lululemon在2020年6月斥资5亿美元收购了Mirror。此外,耐克(Nike)、安德玛(Under Armour)和Strava近期都在加快开发自己的健身应用程序。(财富中文网)
编译:杨二一
Talk about a rough road.
On February 23, shares of Peloton, the connected fitness-equipment maker known for its at-home gear and fitness app, were down 16.4% since the start of the year. That makes it the worst performing Nasdaq 100 component in 2021.
During the pandemic, millions of Americans flocked to Peloton’s at-home stationary bicycles and fitness sessions as coronavirus-induced lockdowns forced the closure of gyms across the country. Peloton boasts almost 2 million digital subscribers to date, each of whom pay up to $39 monthly for virtual classes. Peloton bikes themselves cost up to $2,500.
After an IPO in September 2019, the company struck gold in 2020, with $1.8 billion in sales during the fiscal year ended June 30, doubling what it had made the year before. Near its peak, Peloton stock had sextupled in price to $147.17, giving the company a market capitalization of a whopping $46 billion. That’s roughly equivalent to that of Ford Motor Co.
But the stock always attracted doubters as well. As gyms begin to reopen, they wondered, would those at-home routines stick, or was this a purely pandemic-driven fad?
In an interview with Fortune earlier this month, Simeon Siegel, an analyst at BMO Capital Markets, said Peloton’s stock was “detached from reality” and should trade at about $33, nearly 80% below where it was at the time.
Others remain confident that Peloton will rebound. In a recent report on the future of fitness tech from Macquarie Group, lifestyle analyst Paul Golding and media tech analyst Tim Nollen wrote that they expect Peloton’s stock to rise to $190 by year’s end.
“We expect FitTechs to continue growing as distribution platforms in their own right, across content types like music, branding campaigns, lifestyle video content, and eSports, leading to new revenue opportunities in licensing/ads,” Golding and Nollen wrote in the report.
In November, Peloton made headlines when it announced that Beyoncé would be collaborating with the company to develop a series of classes inspired by her music and personal brand.
“We don’t think that [Peloton] is only enjoying these tailwinds [of success] because of COVID,” Golding says in an interview with Fortune. “We think that it is the structural evolution of how fitness is consumed.”
Meanwhile, Peloton is facing stark competition from a host of other companies looking to capitalize on the fitness company’s success. Most notably, Apple introduced Fitness+ in December, and Lululemon paid a half-billion dollars to buy Mirror in June. In addition, Nike, Under Armour, and Strava have all made steps toward revving up their own fitness apps recently.