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美国科技股本周强势回升,发生了什么?

Anne Sraders
2021-03-10

这个现象表明,最近出现的下跌更多是热门行业的获利回吐,而不是人们对经济前景的严重担忧。

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最近几天,科技股萎靡不振的表现让投资者们也有些垂头丧气,但现在,涨势又回来了。

3月9日,科技股从最近的低迷中大幅回弹,而3月8日,纳斯达克指数在一度跌入回调区间后,就以3.7%的涨幅收盘。特斯拉(Teasla)、苹果(Apple)和疫情流行以来炙手可热的Zoom等大型科技股分别上涨20%、4%和10%。同时,美国国债价格小幅下跌,十年期国债在3月9日收跌约1.5%。

独立顾问联盟(Independent Advisor Alliance)的首席投资官克里斯·扎卡雷利表示:“科技股之前的表现——有所回落,或者是像我认为的那样,其实是被卖空了——都是对利率变化的反应。”他告诉《财富》杂志,并补充说:“我觉得,投资者在各行业之间不断轮换,因而在面对科技股和能源等其他行业的股票时,会有点不分良莠,一并抛售了。”

同时,随着经济状况不断改善,投资机构Ally Invest的首席投资策略师琳赛·贝尔通过电子邮件向《财富》杂志表示:“今天的现象表明,最近出现的下跌更多是热门行业的获利回吐,而不是人们对经济前景的严重担忧。”

这似乎促成了一波抄底买入。看一下美国银行(Bank of America)的客户的股权流通和股市回弹就一点也不意外了:根据美国银行在3月9日发布的一份报告,“人人都在科技股大跌时入手。”

对美国银行的客户而言,“上周的大笔净买入都集中在科技板块,在一周内流入该行业的资金又直逼最高纪录(达26亿美元,是七年来的最高水平)。因此,流入科技股板块的资金在四周以来的平均值也创下了历史新高。”该银行的策略师写道。

“高高在上”?

科技股在3月9日出现了大规模的复苏,而前一个星期,人们一直对成长型股票忧心忡忡,这是因为10年期美国国债的收益率近来飙升至1.6%以上,还有些资者开始转向轮换交易——这促进了能源、金融和工业等行业在过去一个月里出现了周期性的增长。

确实,在华尔街出现了一种呼声,即让投资者们及时抓住最近的市场动向,采取措施,重新调整其投资组合。摩根士丹利财富管理(Morgan Stanley Wealth Management)的首席投资官丽莎·沙莱特最近告诉《财富》杂志:“您的投资计划需要翻篇了。”她认为,我们现在进入了一个新的经济周期,并且“当新的经济周期出现时,人们就会转变他们投资的行业”。她说,她现在就在研究数字化服务业、住房、自动化、机器人技术和半导体等领域。

此外,贝尔还指出,如果对通货膨胀的担忧和十年期国债的收益率都再次飙升,就可能会让科技股重新受到追捧。

但也有一些人,如扎卡雷利,则认为科技行业注定会保持增长趋势,即便涨得可能没有那么猛。他说,趁着股价下跌,他会买入一些表现相对更好的大型科技股(并避免入手太多不稳定的投机性股票和中小型科技公司)。他认为在未来,“市场将很不稳定,不会一直朝某个方向发展,但我预计科技股在一年内会继续走高——当然,要一直保持高高在上有点挑战,我也认为其他行业会出现周期性的发展。”

预计科技股在回调后会出现上涨是有历史经验可循的:3月9日,投资公司LPL的市场策略师瑞安·德特里克在推特(Twitter)上指出,尽管最近几周科技股价格下跌、出现抛售热潮,但纳斯达克指数(Nasdaq)在六个月前一度跌入回调区间后,如今的平均涨幅已达23.6%。

立刻对纳斯达克指数作出10%的回调修正,然后会怎么样?

德特里克在推特上写道:

产生极高的收益率是很常见的,这意味着对那些愿意忍痛以及时止损的人来说,这10%的回调可能已经是一个不错的入手机会了。

——瑞安·德特里克(@RyanDetrick),2021年3月9日

展望未来的话,美国的财政刺激计划为市场注入了高达1.9万亿美元的资金,一些策略分析师预计,随着经济复苏,可能有更多行业会持续迎来周期性的大发展。

这也是为什么贝尔和扎卡雷利都觉得,尽管科技仍然是“诱人的”行业,但在短期内,从相对表现来看,可能会有比科技更好的领域值得人们关注。

扎卡雷利补充说:“我认为,对科技股更应该保持‘持有’的状态,而对一些在特定周期内会出现较大增长势头的行业则更值得买进。”(财富中文网)

编译:陈聪聪

最近几天,科技股萎靡不振的表现让投资者们也有些垂头丧气,但现在,涨势又回来了。

3月9日,科技股从最近的低迷中大幅回弹,而3月8日,纳斯达克指数在一度跌入回调区间后,就以3.7%的涨幅收盘。特斯拉(Teasla)、苹果(Apple)和疫情流行以来炙手可热的Zoom等大型科技股分别上涨20%、4%和10%。同时,美国国债价格小幅下跌,十年期国债在3月9日收跌约1.5%。

独立顾问联盟(Independent Advisor Alliance)的首席投资官克里斯·扎卡雷利表示:“科技股之前的表现——有所回落,或者是像我认为的那样,其实是被卖空了——都是对利率变化的反应。”他告诉《财富》杂志,并补充说:“我觉得,投资者在各行业之间不断轮换,因而在面对科技股和能源等其他行业的股票时,会有点不分良莠,一并抛售了。”

同时,随着经济状况不断改善,投资机构Ally Invest的首席投资策略师琳赛·贝尔通过电子邮件向《财富》杂志表示:“今天的现象表明,最近出现的下跌更多是热门行业的获利回吐,而不是人们对经济前景的严重担忧。”

这似乎促成了一波抄底买入。看一下美国银行(Bank of America)的客户的股权流通和股市回弹就一点也不意外了:根据美国银行在3月9日发布的一份报告,“人人都在科技股大跌时入手。”

对美国银行的客户而言,“上周的大笔净买入都集中在科技板块,在一周内流入该行业的资金又直逼最高纪录(达26亿美元,是七年来的最高水平)。因此,流入科技股板块的资金在四周以来的平均值也创下了历史新高。”该银行的策略师写道。

“高高在上”?

科技股在3月9日出现了大规模的复苏,而前一个星期,人们一直对成长型股票忧心忡忡,这是因为10年期美国国债的收益率近来飙升至1.6%以上,还有些资者开始转向轮换交易——这促进了能源、金融和工业等行业在过去一个月里出现了周期性的增长。

确实,在华尔街出现了一种呼声,即让投资者们及时抓住最近的市场动向,采取措施,重新调整其投资组合。摩根士丹利财富管理(Morgan Stanley Wealth Management)的首席投资官丽莎·沙莱特最近告诉《财富》杂志:“您的投资计划需要翻篇了。”她认为,我们现在进入了一个新的经济周期,并且“当新的经济周期出现时,人们就会转变他们投资的行业”。她说,她现在就在研究数字化服务业、住房、自动化、机器人技术和半导体等领域。

此外,贝尔还指出,如果对通货膨胀的担忧和十年期国债的收益率都再次飙升,就可能会让科技股重新受到追捧。

但也有一些人,如扎卡雷利,则认为科技行业注定会保持增长趋势,即便涨得可能没有那么猛。他说,趁着股价下跌,他会买入一些表现相对更好的大型科技股(并避免入手太多不稳定的投机性股票和中小型科技公司)。他认为在未来,“市场将很不稳定,不会一直朝某个方向发展,但我预计科技股在一年内会继续走高——当然,要一直保持高高在上有点挑战,我也认为其他行业会出现周期性的发展。”

预计科技股在回调后会出现上涨是有历史经验可循的:3月9日,投资公司LPL的市场策略师瑞安·德特里克在推特(Twitter)上指出,尽管最近几周科技股价格下跌、出现抛售热潮,但纳斯达克指数(Nasdaq)在六个月前一度跌入回调区间后,如今的平均涨幅已达23.6%。

立刻对纳斯达克指数作出10%的回调修正,然后会怎么样?

德特里克在推特上写道:

产生极高的收益率是很常见的,这意味着对那些愿意忍痛以及时止损的人来说,这10%的回调可能已经是一个不错的入手机会了。

——瑞安·德特里克(@RyanDetrick),2021年3月9日

展望未来的话,美国的财政刺激计划为市场注入了高达1.9万亿美元的资金,一些策略分析师预计,随着经济复苏,可能有更多行业会持续迎来周期性的大发展。

这也是为什么贝尔和扎卡雷利都觉得,尽管科技仍然是“诱人的”行业,但在短期内,从相对表现来看,可能会有比科技更好的领域值得人们关注。

扎卡雷利补充说:“我认为,对科技股更应该保持‘持有’的状态,而对一些在特定周期内会出现较大增长势头的行业则更值得买进。”(财富中文网)

编译:陈聪聪

Tech investors had a rough go of it in recent days, but the bulls are back.

On March 9 tech stocks soared off their recent lows, with the Nasdaq closing up 3.7% after retreating into correction territory on March 8. Names of the biggest tech stocks like Tesla, Apple, and pandemic-favorite Zoom, jumped 20%, 4%, and 10% respectively. Treasuries, meanwhile, have slumped slightly, with the 10-year settling at around 1.5% on March 9.

According to Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Independent Advisor Alliance, "What you saw with tech stocks was both reacting to the interest rates ... coming back down a little bit, as well as the fact that I think tech was a little bit oversold," he tells Fortune. "I think the baby is kind of getting thrown out with the bathwater with the sector rotation" out of tech and into areas like energy, he adds.

Meanwhile, with continuously-improving economic data, Lindsey Bell, chief investment strategist at Ally Invest, argues "Today’s action shows the recent drop has been more about profit-taking in popular sectors than serious concern about the economic outlook," she told Fortune via email.

That seems to have prompted some buying-the-dip. One look at equity flows from Bank of America's clients and the rebound isn't much of a surprise: According to a BofA report on March 9, "everyone bought the tech rout."

For BofA's clients, "Last week's big net buying was concentrated in Tech, which saw another near-record weekly inflow ($2.6 billion, the highest in over seven years). As a result, four-week average Tech flows have hit a record high," strategists at the bank wrote.

“Grinding higher”?

The massive recovery in tech on March 9 comes after a week of anxiety for growth stocks, as the 10-year Treasury yield spiked above 1.6% in recent days and many investors leaned into the rotation trade—boosting cyclical sectors like energy, financials, and industrials in the past month.

Indeed, some on the Street have called for investors to take the recent market moves as a sign to reorient their portfolio. "You need a new playbook," Morgan Stanley Wealth Management's chief investment officer Lisa Shalett recently told Fortune. Her thinking is that we've now entered a new business cycle, and that "when you have a new business cycle, you get sector rotation." She said she is looking at areas like the digitization of services, housing, automation, robotics, and semiconductors.

Additionally, if inflation fears and the 10-year yield were to once again pop up, that could put tech back in the hot seat, notes Ally's Bell.

But others like Zaccarelli believe the sector is destined to maintain an upward, if perhaps less aggressive, trajectory. He says he'd be buying the dip on some of the better large cap tech names (and avoiding more speculative and mid-and-small-cap tech), arguing that moving forward, "it's going to be choppy, it's not going to go in a straight direction, but I'd expect tech, over the course of the year, to continue to move higher—kind of chugging along, grinding higher, whereas I think you'll still see cyclical sectors come to life."

The prediction of tech moving higher off of this correction has some historical precedent: Despite the quick selloff in tech in recent weeks, on average the Nasdaq was up 23.6% six months after a rapid correction, LPL's Ryan Detrick pointed out on Twitter on March 9.

What happens after fast 10% corrections for the Nasdaq?

Detrick wrote on Twitter:

Extremely strong returns are quite common, meaning this 10% correction could end up being a nice buying opportunity for those willing to make the uncomfortable trade. pic.twitter.com/ifbvrKbL7a

— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) March 9, 2021

Moving forward, with some $1.9 trillion in fiscal stimulus about to flood into the economy, some strategists expect that alongside the economic rebound, the success of more cyclical names should likely continue.

That's why Bell and Zaccarelli believe that while tech remains an "attractive" sector, there may be better areas to look in the near term for relative performance.

Adds Zaccarelli: "I would consider technology more of a hold, and I would think some of those more cyclical sectors remain a buy."

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