比特币价格最近的暴涨再次引发了媒体由来已久的敌意。加拿大报纸《环球邮报》刊登了一篇文章,标题为《比特币的麻烦:为什么加密货币的疯狂难以持续》。
诚然,比特币可能会呈现出极端化的走向,但比特币的铁杆拥趸称,加密货币很快将取代黄金以及所有政府支持的货币和信用卡,同时也会颠覆银行系统。这一点在理性层面十分诱人,但实现的可能性不大,至少短期内是如此。
另一方面,媒体评论人士通常会对比特币恶语相加,并将其称为一无是处的投机工具、环境的灾难、泡沫,或者采用更难听的措辞来描述。
正因为如此,投资者几乎无法对这些事实进行坦诚清醒的分析,这一点着实可惜。作为一种新的资产类别,投资者必须充分了解比特币,然后在投资之前谨慎地考虑其风险。
因此从这一方面来讲,我们有必要将以下几个常见的对比特币的误解进行澄清:
比特币仅能用于投机
这种说法并不准确。每一天,比特币网络会处理约100亿美元价值的交易。比特币每天30.5万笔的交易量与美联储金融机构之间的电汇结算系统Fedwire 55万笔的日交易量相比并没有多大的差距。
其中的一些交易为投资性购买,而在这部分交易中,有一部分可能属于投机性投资,但其中的很多都是常规性用途,比如汇款,尤其是在南半球。例如,世界经济论坛称,32%的尼日利亚人都持有比特币,用于P2P支付。在俄罗斯和白俄罗斯,比特币有时候是唯一用于资助反腐败举措和抗议的方式。它还是非常实用的。
比特币浪费能源
比特币“挖矿者”利用了大量的算力来构建比特币网络。这些计算机使用了大量的电能,有人估计,其消耗相当于智利一国的用电量。这一现象也为比特币带来了能源浪费的骂名。
浪费能源的事物,仅限于那些人们认为没有实用功能的事物。比特币网络拥有1万亿美元的价值,而且为数千万民众提供服务,包括众多无法获取传统支付网络服务的人群。
挖矿者通常聚集于那些电力充足或免费的地区,而这些地区通常使用的是可再生能源水电或地热资源。如今,至少39%的比特币挖矿都采用可再生能源作为电力,而且这一比重还在迅速增长。联邦快递、TikTok以及美国国防部的运营同样需要大量的能源。
毫无疑问,比特币的碳印记确实是一个问题,需要寻找解决办法。然而,这并不意味着比特币是一个糟糕的理念。相反,这个碳印记是一个有待克服的实施挑战,其他所有功能性实体机构都面临同样的问题。
比特币波动性太大,不大适合作为价值储存介质
毫无疑问,比特币的波动性比政府债券的波动性大,但这并非是比特币自身的问题。
20世纪70年代,货币系统正式启用黄金,其价格的波动性极大,在10年内增长了9倍,而随后又下跌了60%,并在数十年内一直处于低迷状态。随着黄金的价格不断上升,其波动性也创下了市场新高。有时候,波动性最大的资产拥有最好的回报,但有时候也并非如此。
比特币如今正处于“价格发现”阶段,类似于黄金在20世纪70年代的现象,当时价格的大起大落十分常见。然而,由于其波动性,比特币可能并不适合所有的投资者。
政府将扼杀比特币
确实,比特币在尼日利亚、俄罗斯和白俄罗斯政府那里吃了闭门羹。然而在美国、加拿大和西方大多数国家,比特币则获得了不同的待遇。
例如,顶级美国证券监管机构在麻省理工学院开设了加密货币课程;大宗商品市场的监管方美国大宗商品期货交易委员会,在规范比特币衍生工具方面扮演着全球创新者的角色;美国货币监理署最近取消了银行为比特币提供托管服务的限制。
央行最为关注的莫过于金融稳定性。对1万亿美元的比特币市场来说,一些随意而无根据的打压更容易造成动荡。
其他加密货币将稀释比特币
自比特币于2009年诞生以来,市场中涌现了数千种新加密货币,但并未给比特币的价格带来明显冲击。这一点不难理解。当我们从地球挖取更多的锡时,我们是否会影响黄金的价格呢?不会,因为它们并非是关联资产。
有一个相关的评论称比特币的总供应并非是固定的,因为比特币可以分解为一个个小增量。要理解这一点为什么是错误的,我们可以以比萨为例:如果我们吃比萨,并将其分割为数十亿份,我们的比萨是否会变多或变少,还是没有变化?当然是没有变化。
数字货币与企业货币将扼杀比特币
指望政府成为技术创新者是一种过于乐观的想法。尽管很多央行宣布了央行数字货币动议,但大多数仍然处于理念验证阶段。
企业数字货币(又称为稳定币)也不会对比特币构成威胁。事实上,它们有可能发挥相反的作用。所有正在流通的稳定币的价值自2017年以来,飙升了40倍,然而比特币也在继续发展壮大,因为越来越多的用户开始习惯使用数字资产。
“热钱”吹起了比特币泡沫
诚然,所有风险资产都受益于加拿大央行、美联储以及其他地区宽松的利率政策。随着债券收益率的增加,而且资金流流向了对经济更加敏感的银行股、能源公司股等等,一些低利率的受益者,包括科技领域的高股价公司已经较其疫情期间的股价回调了30%或以上。
比特币在一定程度上可能也会跟进,因此理智的投资者应该谨慎对待所有那些价值增幅在一年内超过5倍的投资,比特币亦是如此。说到这里,值得注意的是,比特币可能会受益于货币政策的收紧,哪怕它意味着通胀的加速,因为众多的投资者会将比特币作为对冲不断上升的消费价格的工具。
在我看来,比特币毫无疑问是创新的催化剂,而且可能会成为未来全球金融系统的参与者。
一千年以来,金钱本身亦经历了一系列进化,货币从贝壳到泥板,再到贵金属、银行票据和银行结余,它也在通过另一种方式向未来迈进,也就是数字化。购买比特币也许正提供了一种了解这个未来的途径。
然而,我们无法保证比特币一定能够获得成功,而且这类投资并非适和所有人。任何新范式都存在风险和不确定性。要了解比特币,请先了解相关事实。(财富中文网)
亚力克斯·塔普斯科特是Ninepoint Digital Asset Group(Ninepoint Partners LP公司的一个部门)的常务董事,也是《区块链革命》的合著者。本文仅供参考,不作为投资建议。
译者:冯丰
审校:夏林
比特币价格最近的暴涨再次引发了媒体由来已久的敌意。加拿大报纸《环球邮报》刊登了一篇文章,标题为《比特币的麻烦:为什么加密货币的疯狂难以持续》。
诚然,比特币可能会呈现出极端化的走向,但比特币的铁杆拥趸称,加密货币很快将取代黄金以及所有政府支持的货币和信用卡,同时也会颠覆银行系统。这一点在理性层面十分诱人,但实现的可能性不大,至少短期内是如此。
另一方面,媒体评论人士通常会对比特币恶语相加,并将其称为一无是处的投机工具、环境的灾难、泡沫,或者采用更难听的措辞来描述。
正因为如此,投资者几乎无法对这些事实进行坦诚清醒的分析,这一点着实可惜。作为一种新的资产类别,投资者必须充分了解比特币,然后在投资之前谨慎地考虑其风险。
因此从这一方面来讲,我们有必要将以下几个常见的对比特币的误解进行澄清:
比特币仅能用于投机
这种说法并不准确。每一天,比特币网络会处理约100亿美元价值的交易。比特币每天30.5万笔的交易量与美联储金融机构之间的电汇结算系统Fedwire 55万笔的日交易量相比并没有多大的差距。
其中的一些交易为投资性购买,而在这部分交易中,有一部分可能属于投机性投资,但其中的很多都是常规性用途,比如汇款,尤其是在南半球。例如,世界经济论坛称,32%的尼日利亚人都持有比特币,用于P2P支付。在俄罗斯和白俄罗斯,比特币有时候是唯一用于资助反腐败举措和抗议的方式。它还是非常实用的。
比特币浪费能源
比特币“挖矿者”利用了大量的算力来构建比特币网络。这些计算机使用了大量的电能,有人估计,其消耗相当于智利一国的用电量。这一现象也为比特币带来了能源浪费的骂名。
浪费能源的事物,仅限于那些人们认为没有实用功能的事物。比特币网络拥有1万亿美元的价值,而且为数千万民众提供服务,包括众多无法获取传统支付网络服务的人群。
挖矿者通常聚集于那些电力充足或免费的地区,而这些地区通常使用的是可再生能源水电或地热资源。如今,至少39%的比特币挖矿都采用可再生能源作为电力,而且这一比重还在迅速增长。联邦快递、TikTok以及美国国防部的运营同样需要大量的能源。
毫无疑问,比特币的碳印记确实是一个问题,需要寻找解决办法。然而,这并不意味着比特币是一个糟糕的理念。相反,这个碳印记是一个有待克服的实施挑战,其他所有功能性实体机构都面临同样的问题。
比特币波动性太大,不大适合作为价值储存介质
毫无疑问,比特币的波动性比政府债券的波动性大,但这并非是比特币自身的问题。
20世纪70年代,货币系统正式启用黄金,其价格的波动性极大,在10年内增长了9倍,而随后又下跌了60%,并在数十年内一直处于低迷状态。随着黄金的价格不断上升,其波动性也创下了市场新高。有时候,波动性最大的资产拥有最好的回报,但有时候也并非如此。
比特币如今正处于“价格发现”阶段,类似于黄金在20世纪70年代的现象,当时价格的大起大落十分常见。然而,由于其波动性,比特币可能并不适合所有的投资者。
政府将扼杀比特币
确实,比特币在尼日利亚、俄罗斯和白俄罗斯政府那里吃了闭门羹。然而在美国、加拿大和西方大多数国家,比特币则获得了不同的待遇。
例如,顶级美国证券监管机构在麻省理工学院开设了加密货币课程;大宗商品市场的监管方美国大宗商品期货交易委员会,在规范比特币衍生工具方面扮演着全球创新者的角色;美国货币监理署最近取消了银行为比特币提供托管服务的限制。
央行最为关注的莫过于金融稳定性。对1万亿美元的比特币市场来说,一些随意而无根据的打压更容易造成动荡。
其他加密货币将稀释比特币
自比特币于2009年诞生以来,市场中涌现了数千种新加密货币,但并未给比特币的价格带来明显冲击。这一点不难理解。当我们从地球挖取更多的锡时,我们是否会影响黄金的价格呢?不会,因为它们并非是关联资产。
有一个相关的评论称比特币的总供应并非是固定的,因为比特币可以分解为一个个小增量。要理解这一点为什么是错误的,我们可以以比萨为例:如果我们吃比萨,并将其分割为数十亿份,我们的比萨是否会变多或变少,还是没有变化?当然是没有变化。
央行数字货币与企业货币将扼杀比特币
指望政府成为技术创新者是一种过于乐观的想法。尽管很多央行宣布了央行数字货币动议,但大多数仍然处于理念验证阶段。
企业数字货币(又称为稳定币)也不会对比特币构成威胁。事实上,它们有可能发挥相反的作用。所有正在流通的稳定币的价值自2017年以来,飙升了40倍,然而比特币也在继续发展壮大,因为越来越多的用户开始习惯使用数字资产。
“热钱”吹起了比特币泡沫
诚然,所有风险资产都受益于加拿大央行、美联储以及其他地区宽松的利率政策。随着债券收益率的增加,而且资金流流向了对经济更加敏感的银行股、能源公司股等等,一些低利率的受益者,包括科技领域的高股价公司已经较其疫情期间的股价回调了30%或以上。
比特币在一定程度上可能也会跟进,因此理智的投资者应该谨慎对待所有那些价值增幅在一年内超过5倍的投资,比特币亦是如此。说到这里,值得注意的是,比特币可能会受益于货币政策的收紧,哪怕它意味着通胀的加速,因为众多的投资者会将比特币作为对冲不断上升的消费价格的工具。
在我看来,比特币毫无疑问是创新的催化剂,而且可能会成为未来全球金融系统的参与者。
一千年以来,金钱本身亦经历了一系列进化,货币从贝壳到泥板,再到贵金属、银行票据和银行结余,它也在通过另一种方式向未来迈进,也就是数字化。购买比特币也许正提供了一种了解这个未来的途径。
然而,我们无法保证比特币一定能够获得成功,而且这类投资并非适和所有人。任何新范式都存在风险和不确定性。要了解比特币,请先了解相关事实。(财富中文网)
亚力克斯·塔普斯科特是Ninepoint Digital Asset Group(Ninepoint Partners LP公司的一个部门)的常务董事,也是《区块链革命》的合著者。本文仅供参考,不作为投资建议。
译者:冯丰
审校:夏林
Bitcoin’s recent surge has reawakened old animus in the media. “The trouble with Bitcoin: Why the crypto craze can’t last,” read a recent headline in the Globe and Mail, a Canadian newspaper.
To be sure, Bitcoin can be polarizing. Bitcoin diehards claim the cryptocurrency will soon replace gold, all government-backed money, and credit cards, as well as turn the banking system on its head. Rational exuberance aside, that is unlikely to happen, at least in the short term. On the flip side, media critics often badly mischaracterize Bitcoin as nothing more than a speculative tool, an environmental disaster, a bubble, or worse.
This makes an honest, sober analysis of the facts by an investor almost impossible, which is a shame. As a new asset class, investors must do their homework on Bitcoin and carefully consider the risks before jumping in.
So in that spirit, it’s high time to fact-check a few common Bitcoin misconceptions:
Bitcoin is used only for speculation
This is not accurate. Every day, the Bitcoin network settles approximately $10 billion worth of transactions. Bitcoin’s average of 305,000 daily transactions is not far behind Fedwire, the Federal Reserve’s settlement system for wire transfers between financial institutions, at 550,000 transactions.
Some of these transactions represent investment purchases, and some of those may be for speculation, but many others are for regular use like remittances, especially in the global South. For example, according to the World Economic Forum, 32% of Nigerians own Bitcoin for peer-to-peer payments. In regimes like Russia and Belarus, Bitcoin is sometimes the only way to fund anti-corruption efforts and protests. That’s pretty useful.
Bitcoin wastes energy
Bitcoin “miners” harness vast computing power to secure the Bitcoin network. Those computers use a lot of energy: by some estimates as much as the country of Chile. This has led to charges of energy waste.
Something “wastes” energy only to those who think it serves no useful function. The Bitcoin network secures $1 trillion in value, and serves millions of people, including many without access to traditional payment networks. Miners often colocate to where power is abundant and free, which often means renewable hydroelectric or geothermal sources. Today at least 39% of Bitcoin mining is powered by renewable energy, and that share is growing rapidly. It also takes a lot of energy to run FedEx, TikTok, and the U.S. Department of Defense. Bitcoin’s carbon footprint is undoubtedly a problem that requires a solution. But it doesn’t mean Bitcoin is a bad idea. Rather, that carbon footprint is an implementation challenge to overcome—just as it is for all kinds of useful entities.
Bitcoin is too volatile to be a store of value
While it’s true that Bitcoin is more volatile than, say, government bonds, that’s not inherently bad. In the 1970s, as gold was severed formally from the monetary system, its price was extremely volatile, increasing 10-fold in a decade, before declining 60% and flatlining for decades. Gold was at its most volatile as it was increasing in value. Sometimes the most volatile assets have the best returns, and sometimes they do not. Bitcoin today is in a “price discovery” phase similar to where gold was in the 1970s, where big swings up and down can be common. Still, because of its volatility, Bitcoin may not be suitable for all investors.
Governments will kill Bitcoin
It’s true that in Nigeria, Russia, and Belarus, Bitcoin gets the government’s cold shoulder. But in the U.S., Canada, and much of the West, the situation is different. For example, the top U.S. securities regulator taught a course on cryptocurrencies at MIT; the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which regulates commodity markets, is a global innovator in regulating Bitcoin derivatives; and the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency recently cleared banks to provide custody services for Bitcoin. Central banks care about financial stability above all else. Nothing would be more destabilizing to the $1 trillion Bitcoin market than some arbitrary and unwarranted crackdown.
Other cryptocurrencies are dilutive to Bitcoin
Since Bitcoin went live in 2009, thousands of new cryptocurrencies have launched with no obvious impact on Bitcoin’s price. This makes sense. When we mine more tin from the earth, do we affect the supply of gold? No, because they are unrelated assets. A related critique is that Bitcoin’s total supply is not fixed, because Bitcoin is divisible into tiny increments. To understand why this is wrong, replace Bitcoin with pizza: If we take a pizza and cut it into a billion pieces, do we have more pizza, less pizza, or the same amount of pizza? We have the same, of course.
Central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and corporate currencies will crush Bitcoin
Relying on governments to be technology innovators is very optimistic. While it’s true that many central banks have announced CBDC initiatives, few are beyond the proof-of-concept stage.
Corporate digital currencies (also known as stablecoins) will not threaten Bitcoin, either. In fact, they’ll likely do the opposite. The value of all stablecoins in circulation has skyrocketed 40x since 2017, but Bitcoin continues to thrive, as more users grow comfortable with digital assets.
“Easy money” is pushing Bitcoin into bubble territory
It’s true that all risk assets have benefited from easy interest-rate policy at the Bank of Canada, the Federal Reserve, and elsewhere. As bond yields have increased and fund flows have moved into more economically sensitive stocks of banks, energy companies, and so forth, some beneficiaries of low rates, including tech-sector high-fliers like Shopify, Zoom, and Peloton, have corrected 30% or more from their pandemic highs. Bitcoin may follow suit at some point, and of course investors would be wise to proceed with caution on any investment whose value has increased over 500% in less than a year, as Bitcoin’s has. That said, it’s worth noting that Bitcoin could benefit from a tightening of monetary policy, if it signals accelerating inflation, because many investors see Bitcoin as a hedge against rising consumer prices.
In my view, Bitcoin is certainly a catalyst of innovation and could become a key player in the future of our global financial system. Money, which has evolved through the millennia from cowrie shells to clay tablets to precious metals, bank notes, and bank balances, is taking another step into the future. Money is becoming digital. Buying Bitcoin could offer a way to get exposure to that future. However, Bitcoin’s success is not guaranteed, and it may not be a suitable investment for everyone. As with any new paradigm, there are risks and uncertainties. To understand Bitcoin, start with the facts.
Alex Tapscott is managing director of the Ninepoint Digital Asset Group (a division of Ninepoint Partners LP) and coauthor of Blockchain Revolution. This article is for information purposes only and should not be relied upon as investment advice.