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分析师说,今年最好投资这个国家的股票

Shawn Tully
2021-03-30

英国不仅提供定价最低的股票,它还是一个成熟的发达国家,市场波动远低于发展中国家。

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目前,专业投资者当中的主流观点是,美国大盘股定价过高,但按照当前的超低利率依旧很划算,而寻找便宜的投资目标最好是去新兴市场。前提是你不担心在俄罗斯、土耳其和巴西持有部分股票所面临的风险。但你是否相信全球定价最低的主要市场是英国市场?按照现金流收益率等所有标准指标计算,英国不仅提供定价最低的股票,它还是一个成熟的发达国家,市场波动远低于发展中国家。Research Affiliates公司的首席执行官罗伯·阿诺特称:“英国股市是2020年代首选的投资目标。”该公司为价值1,570亿美元的共同基金和交易所交易基金(ETF)设计投资策略。

阿诺特和同事维塔利·卡莱斯尼克、莉莉安·吴在最近发表的文章中,提出了投资英国股票的充分理由。他们指出,英国脱欧(Brexit)造成的混乱以及比美国等国家更为严重的新冠疫情封锁措施,使英国经济接连受创,导致经济和市场均陷入低迷。这两件事情的影响正在快速消退,但英国低迷的股价并没有表现出强势反弹的迹象。文章的作者写道:“大部分投资者对当前发生的事件感到震惊,但令人意外的是很少有人问:‘这在未来五年是否还会有影响?’”股价上涨已经在酝酿当中,现在就是进场的好时机。

英国股市多年来持续低迷

英国股市自2015年4月创多年新高以后,一直在持续震荡,到2019年年底仅上涨了4%。卡莱斯尼克表示:“英国面临无协议脱欧的风险。英国是欧盟的重要贸易合作伙伴。双边互加关税的结果可能产生糟糕的影响。”欧盟似乎决心通过惩罚英国,向有意脱离欧盟的任何国家展示这样做的严重后果。英国股价体现出这种灾难性后果极有可能发生。随着英国无协议脱欧的威胁持续到2020年,新冠疫情危机又令英国经济雪上加霜。英国是全球疫情最严重的国家之一,危险的新变异病毒的出现让情况变得更复杂。截至2021年2月,英国与意大利的新冠死亡病例人数不相上下,按照人口相对数计算,在所有发达国家中排在首位。

这种双重危机令这个重大经济体在去年遭受了最严重的损失。英国国民收入萎缩11.2%,是下降幅度最大的发达国家。英国国民收入的下降幅度甚至比印度高1.3个百分点,比欧元区高3.4个百分点,比美国高出三倍。经济的突然变化对股市产生了影响。2020年,标普500指数(S&P 500)上涨了16.2%,富时100指数(FTSE 100)却下跌了14.3%。

英国得到了满意的脱欧协议,并正从疫情中快速复苏

疫情肆虐似乎帮助英国避开了可能对其极其不利的脱欧协议。卡莱斯尼克说:“政治人物更愿意接受更温和的情景。新冠疫情带来了帮助,因为他们认为在这时候阻碍英国经济发展并不是恰当的时机。”双方在2020年圣诞节前夜达成协议,允许英国继续留在由27个欧盟成员国组成的商品自由贸易区。虽然该协议中不包括服务,而且伦敦的银行业务也流失到了法兰克福和都柏林等地,但英国依旧是一个充满活力的全球金融服务中心。

不过英国在全民接种疫苗方面,却并没有像欧洲大陆的邻国那样陷入严重僵局。截至3月21日,已经有超过2,800万英国民众至少接种了一剂疫苗,这意味着每100位英国居民当中就有44人接种了疫苗,接种率仅次于以色列,高于美国的34%。65岁及以上的老年人已经有接近80%接种了一剂疫苗,而且截至7月中旬,几乎所有居民都有机会至少接种一剂疫苗。新增病例的增速也已经下降到全球最低。

然而英国依旧在实行严格的封锁措施,所有餐厅和非必要商店都已经停止营业,部分原因是政府担心会从疫情严重的法国等国家输入感染病例。但经济复苏可能比几个月前专家们的预测提前到来。Research Affliliates根据国际货币基金组织(IMF)和经济合作与发展组织(OECD)的数据预测,英国GDP今年的增长率为4.2%,2022年为4.1%,均高于欧元区的3.7%和3.3%。

目前,市场情绪已经从悲观转向谨慎乐观。从2021年年初以来,富时指数(FTSE)上涨了3.9%,与美股指数的涨幅基本相当。

英国股票的预期收益率全球最高,主要原因是定价较低

英国值得投资的一个主要原因是:英国股市占主导地位的上市公司主要来自制造业、能源、电信和金融服务等传统的经济支柱产业。该指数中的大盘股包括英国石油(BP)、荷兰皇家壳牌公司(Royal Dutch Shell)、沃达丰(Vodafone)、英国电信(British Telecom)、巴克莱(Barclays)和汇丰银行(HSBC)等。这些股票都属于价值股,十多年来它们的表现一直落后于大盘。所以在购买英国股票时,你可能会遇到定价比实际价值低一倍的股票:这些价值股的定价一直较低,而且英国脱欧和新冠疫情的冲击导致这些股票的价格进一步下跌。

衡量全球股票定价过高、过低还是合理,有一个很好的衡量指标是股价与现金流的比率。Research Affiliates使用了息税折旧摊销前利润(EBITDA)代表现金流。英国股票目前的市场价格,是公司前五年平均年现金流的6.9倍。换言之,投资者为一股股票每支付100美元,可以获得14.50美元息税折旧摊销前利润。所有发达国家以及美国的股价与现金流比率约为12倍,比英国的6.9倍高了近一倍。新兴市场的股票确实价格便宜,但其股价与现金流比率为8.6倍,依旧比英国股票高25%。

另外,英国的股价与现金流比率也远低于其历史水平。英国股市历史上约88%的时间,股价与现金流比率都高于当前的水平。卡莱斯尼克认为,这是一个明显的信号。他说,你能够预想到这个比率会持续升高,因为美国等主要市场的市盈率倍数得益于现在的超低利率。如果投资者决定赋予英国股票这种通常在超低利率环境下较为合理的高估值,这种转变就会提高英国股票的收益。

即便这种情况不会发生,按照最保守的假设,未来几年,英国股票仍然有望实现全球最高收益率。Research Affiliates预测,未来十年,英国股票的年度总收益率将为8.1%,其中股息率为3.25%,4.1%来自收益率增长,0.8%来自低于平均水平的市盈率倍数上涨。这高于新兴市场7.8%的年度收益率预测,比美股高1.9%,但这点差距不足以与通货膨胀抗衡。

如果脱离欧盟可以促进经济增长,股市将带来更高回报

8%的收益率预测是极有可能实现的,原因是英国股价足够便宜。低价格带来的股息收益率远高于美股,适中的倍数使市盈率很有可能逐步上涨。如果英国摆脱欧盟的约束之后能够鼓励创业,英国股市就将有较大的上涨空间。

阿诺特说:“许多投资者现在并没有考虑这一点。”投资者的普遍观点是一切都很糟糕,英国企业不会搬离到其他地方。但这并不是英国股票价格低廉的原因。”

他继续指出,英国经济缺乏活力,并且这种状况已经持续了很长时间。但英国脱欧可以给英国注入活力,让其变成“欧洲的新加坡”。阿诺德称:“这绝不是白日做梦。摆脱了欧盟法规的约束,避免了可怕的成本,英国有望效仿亚洲虎的做法。”这是最乐观的情况。即便英国只是恢复到疫情之前乃至于脱欧之前的样子,与任何看起来更有吸引力但价格过高的市场相比,投资者依旧能够在英国获得更高的回报,赚到丰厚的收益。(财富中文网)

翻译:刘进龙

审校:汪皓

目前,专业投资者当中的主流观点是,美国大盘股定价过高,但按照当前的超低利率依旧很划算,而寻找便宜的投资目标最好是去新兴市场。前提是你不担心在俄罗斯、土耳其和巴西持有部分股票所面临的风险。但你是否相信全球定价最低的主要市场是英国市场?按照现金流收益率等所有标准指标计算,英国不仅提供定价最低的股票,它还是一个成熟的发达国家,市场波动远低于发展中国家。Research Affiliates公司的首席执行官罗伯·阿诺特称:“英国股市是2020年代首选的投资目标。”该公司为价值1,570亿美元的共同基金和交易所交易基金(ETF)设计投资策略。

阿诺特和同事维塔利·卡莱斯尼克、莉莉安·吴在最近发表的文章中,提出了投资英国股票的充分理由。他们指出,英国脱欧(Brexit)造成的混乱以及比美国等国家更为严重的新冠疫情封锁措施,使英国经济接连受创,导致经济和市场均陷入低迷。这两件事情的影响正在快速消退,但英国低迷的股价并没有表现出强势反弹的迹象。文章的作者写道:“大部分投资者对当前发生的事件感到震惊,但令人意外的是很少有人问:‘这在未来五年是否还会有影响?’”股价上涨已经在酝酿当中,现在就是进场的好时机。

英国股市多年来持续低迷

英国股市自2015年4月创多年新高以后,一直在持续震荡,到2019年年底仅上涨了4%。卡莱斯尼克表示:“英国面临无协议脱欧的风险。英国是欧盟的重要贸易合作伙伴。双边互加关税的结果可能产生糟糕的影响。”欧盟似乎决心通过惩罚英国,向有意脱离欧盟的任何国家展示这样做的严重后果。英国股价体现出这种灾难性后果极有可能发生。随着英国无协议脱欧的威胁持续到2020年,新冠疫情危机又令英国经济雪上加霜。英国是全球疫情最严重的国家之一,危险的新变异病毒的出现让情况变得更复杂。截至2021年2月,英国与意大利的新冠死亡病例人数不相上下,按照人口相对数计算,在所有发达国家中排在首位。

这种双重危机令这个重大经济体在去年遭受了最严重的损失。英国国民收入萎缩11.2%,是下降幅度最大的发达国家。英国国民收入的下降幅度甚至比印度高1.3个百分点,比欧元区高3.4个百分点,比美国高出三倍。经济的突然变化对股市产生了影响。2020年,标普500指数(S&P 500)上涨了16.2%,富时100指数(FTSE 100)却下跌了14.3%。

英国得到了满意的脱欧协议,并正从疫情中快速复苏

疫情肆虐似乎帮助英国避开了可能对其极其不利的脱欧协议。卡莱斯尼克说:“政治人物更愿意接受更温和的情景。新冠疫情带来了帮助,因为他们认为在这时候阻碍英国经济发展并不是恰当的时机。”双方在2020年圣诞节前夜达成协议,允许英国继续留在由27个欧盟成员国组成的商品自由贸易区。虽然该协议中不包括服务,而且伦敦的银行业务也流失到了法兰克福和都柏林等地,但英国依旧是一个充满活力的全球金融服务中心。

不过英国在全民接种疫苗方面,却并没有像欧洲大陆的邻国那样陷入严重僵局。截至3月21日,已经有超过2,800万英国民众至少接种了一剂疫苗,这意味着每100位英国居民当中就有44人接种了疫苗,接种率仅次于以色列,高于美国的34%。65岁及以上的老年人已经有接近80%接种了一剂疫苗,而且截至7月中旬,几乎所有居民都有机会至少接种一剂疫苗。新增病例的增速也已经下降到全球最低。

然而英国依旧在实行严格的封锁措施,所有餐厅和非必要商店都已经停止营业,部分原因是政府担心会从疫情严重的法国等国家输入感染病例。但经济复苏可能比几个月前专家们的预测提前到来。Research Affliliates根据国际货币基金组织(IMF)和经济合作与发展组织(OECD)的数据预测,英国GDP今年的增长率为4.2%,2022年为4.1%,均高于欧元区的3.7%和3.3%。

目前,市场情绪已经从悲观转向谨慎乐观。从2021年年初以来,富时指数(FTSE)上涨了3.9%,与美股指数的涨幅基本相当。

英国股票的预期收益率全球最高,主要原因是定价较低

英国值得投资的一个主要原因是:英国股市占主导地位的上市公司主要来自制造业、能源、电信和金融服务等传统的经济支柱产业。该指数中的大盘股包括英国石油(BP)、荷兰皇家壳牌公司(Royal Dutch Shell)、沃达丰(Vodafone)、英国电信(British Telecom)、巴克莱(Barclays)和汇丰银行(HSBC)等。这些股票都属于价值股,十多年来它们的表现一直落后于大盘。所以在购买英国股票时,你可能会遇到定价比实际价值低一倍的股票:这些价值股的定价一直较低,而且英国脱欧和新冠疫情的冲击导致这些股票的价格进一步下跌。

衡量全球股票定价过高、过低还是合理,有一个很好的衡量指标是股价与现金流的比率。Research Affiliates使用了息税折旧摊销前利润(EBITDA)代表现金流。英国股票目前的市场价格,是公司前五年平均年现金流的6.9倍。换言之,投资者为一股股票每支付100美元,可以获得14.50美元息税折旧摊销前利润。所有发达国家以及美国的股价与现金流比率约为12倍,比英国的6.9倍高了近一倍。新兴市场的股票确实价格便宜,但其股价与现金流比率为8.6倍,依旧比英国股票高25%。

另外,英国的股价与现金流比率也远低于其历史水平。英国股市历史上约88%的时间,股价与现金流比率都高于当前的水平。卡莱斯尼克认为,这是一个明显的信号。他说,你能够预想到这个比率会持续升高,因为美国等主要市场的市盈率倍数得益于现在的超低利率。如果投资者决定赋予英国股票这种通常在超低利率环境下较为合理的高估值,这种转变就会提高英国股票的收益。

即便这种情况不会发生,按照最保守的假设,未来几年,英国股票仍然有望实现全球最高收益率。Research Affiliates预测,未来十年,英国股票的年度总收益率将为8.1%,其中股息率为3.25%,4.1%来自收益率增长,0.8%来自低于平均水平的市盈率倍数上涨。这高于新兴市场7.8%的年度收益率预测,比美股高1.9%,但这点差距不足以与通货膨胀抗衡。

如果脱离欧盟可以促进经济增长,股市将带来更高回报

8%的收益率预测是极有可能实现的,原因是英国股价足够便宜。低价格带来的股息收益率远高于美股,适中的倍数使市盈率很有可能逐步上涨。如果英国摆脱欧盟的约束之后能够鼓励创业,英国股市就将有较大的上涨空间。

阿诺特说:“许多投资者现在并没有考虑这一点。”投资者的普遍观点是一切都很糟糕,英国企业不会搬离到其他地方。但这并不是英国股票价格低廉的原因。”

他继续指出,英国经济缺乏活力,并且这种状况已经持续了很长时间。但英国脱欧可以给英国注入活力,让其变成“欧洲的新加坡”。阿诺德称:“这绝不是白日做梦。摆脱了欧盟法规的约束,避免了可怕的成本,英国有望效仿亚洲虎的做法。”这是最乐观的情况。即便英国只是恢复到疫情之前乃至于脱欧之前的样子,与任何看起来更有吸引力但价格过高的市场相比,投资者依旧能够在英国获得更高的回报,赚到丰厚的收益。(财富中文网)

翻译:刘进龙

审校:汪皓

The reigning view among investment professionals is that U.S. big caps are richly priced, though still good buys at these super-low interest rates, and the best ground for bargain hunting is the emerging markets. That's assuming you don't mind the rocky ride from parking part of your portfolio in Russia, Turkey, and Brazil. But would you believe that the world's cheapest major market is none other than the United Kingdom? The U.K. offers not just the lowest prices measured by all the standard metrics such as cash flow to earnings, it's also a developed, sophisticated economy that's far less volatile than developing nations. "The U.K. is the trade of the 2020s," declares Rob Arnott, chief of Research Affiliates, a firm that designs investment strategies for $157 billion in mutual funds and ETFs.

In a recent article, Arnott, and colleagues Vitali Kalesnik and Lillian Wu make a strong case for U.K. equities. They note that the island nation's economy sustained a one-two punch that's flattened its economy and its markets: the upheaval from its Brexit split from the E.U., and a COVID lockdown far more severe than in the U.S. and elsewhere. The damage from both are waning fast, but the strong comeback isn't remotely mirrored in the U.K.'s still beaten-down share prices. "Most investors are transfixed by current events, but surprisingly few will ask: 'Will these matter much in five years?'" the authors write. The lift-off is underway, and the time to board is now.

The U.K. market's done poorly for years

After hitting a multi-year high in April of 2015, U.K. shares zigzagged but went nowhere, rising just over 4% in by the close of 2019. "The U.K. faced the looming danger of a no-deal Brexit," says Kalesnik. "The U.K. is a huge trading partner with the EU. An outcome imposing tariffs on both sides would have been a bad result." Brussels had seemed determined to punish the U.K. to show that any departing nation would receive tough treatment. U.K. stock prices reflected the high probability of a catastrophic outcome. As the Brexit threat dragged into 2020, the COVID crisis dealt the economy a second crushing blow. The U.K. suffered one of the world's worst outbreaks, compounded by the rise of dangerous new strains. By February 2021, the U.K. stood in a tie with Italy for enduring the largest number of COVID-related deaths, relative its population, among all developed nations.

The twin crises caused the deepest damage suffered by any major economy last year. The U.K.'s national income shrank by 11.2%, the sharpest fall in the developed world. The decline exceeded the pullback in India by 1.3 points and the Euro Area by 3.4 points, and was three times steeper than in the U.S. The cataclysm took its toll on stocks. While the S&P 500 gained 16.2% in 2020, the FTSE 100 retreated 14.3%.

Surprise! The U.K. got a good Brexit deal, and is staging a quick recovery from the pandemic

The pandemic's ravages appear to have helped the U.K. skirt a potentially damaging accord with the E.U. "Politicians were more amenable to a softer scenario," says Kalesnik. "COVID helped, because they saw it as the wrong time to hobble the U.K. economy." The agreement reached on Christmas Eve of 2020 allows the U.K. to remain in the tariff-free zone for trading goods that encompasses the E.U.'s 27 member nations. Although services are excluded and while London has lost banking business to the likes of Frankfurt and Dublin, the U.K. remains a vibrant global hub for financial services.

The U.K. also sidestepped its continental neighbors' severe logjams in getting its people vaccinated. As of March 21, over 28 million Brits have received at least one dose, which means its vaccination record of 44 for every 100 residents, is second only to Israel, and beats the U.S. which is at 34 per hundred. No fewer than 80% of folks 65 or older have gotten a stab, and by mid-July, almost all residents should have had the opportunity to receive at least the first shot. The rate of new cases is among the world's lowest.

The U.K. remains in a tight lockdown that's shuttered all restaurants and non-essential shops, in part because the government fears that infections may migrate from France and other nations where COVID rages on. But the the route to a recovery from the pandemic may be coming into view much earlier than the experts predicted just a few months ago. Using IMF and OECD data, Research Affliliates predicts that the U.K. will grow GDP by 4.2% this year and 4.1% in 2022, beating the Euro Area's 3.7% and 3.3%.

The markets are already turning from gloom to guarded optimism. Since the start of 2021, the FTSE has waxed 3.9%, more or less matching the U.S.

Expected returns on U.K. stocks are the best in world––mainly 'cause they're so cheap

A big reason that U.K.'s such a deal: Its dominant companies are mostly old economy stalwarts in manufacturing, energy, telecom, and financial services. Among its biggest names are BP and Royal Dutch Shell, Vodafone, British Telecom, Barclays, and HSBC. Those are value plays, and a category that's underperformed growth for over a decade. So in buying British stocks, you're getting shares that are doubly underpriced: They've long been cheap as part of the value bucket, and got an extra markdown via the hit from Brexit and COVID.

An excellent metric for gauging whether stocks around the globe are richly, lowly or reasonably priced is the ratio of price to cash flow. Research Affiliates uses the cash flow proxy EBITDA. U.K. stocks are now selling for a remarkable 6.9 times their companies' average annual cash flow over the previous five years. In other words, they're generating $14.50 in EBITDA for every $100 investors pay for a share. That multiple's 50% cheaper than the figure of around 12 for both developed world overall, and the U.S. Emerging markets, justifiably renowned as a bargain, are 25% more expensive than the U.K. at a price-to-cash flow of 8.6.

The U.K. multiple is also exceptionally low versus history. It's been higher in around 88% of past periods. That's a great sign, says Kalesnik. You'd expect the ratio to be much loftier, he says, since today's ultra-low rates are pumping multiples in the U.S. and other major markets. If investors decide to bestow the kind of valuations usually accorded in a super-low rate environment, the shift would supercharge U.K. returns.

Even assuming that doesn't happen, and making extremely conservative assumptions, U.K. stocks promise the world's biggest gains in the years ahead. Research Affiliates forecasts that over the next decade, they'll deliver total, annual returns of 8.1% a year, consisting of 3.25% in dividends, 4.1% from earnings growth, and 0.8% from an increase in their price-to-earnings multiple from below-average levels. That edges emerging markets at 7.8% projected yearly gains, and pummels the U.S. at 1.9%, a trifle that's unlikely to match inflation.

Bigger gains could come if freedom from the E.U. jumpstarts growth

The reason returns in the 8% range are highly probable: U.K. shares are so cheap. The low prices provide a dividend yield far higher than in the U.S., and the modest multiple makes a gradual rise in the P/E practically a sure thing. The big upside would come if the U.K. break from the E.U.'s strictures acts an a tonic for entrepreneurship.

"That not what a lot of investors think now," says Arnott. "The general perception is that everything is horrible, that U.K. companies aren't going anywhere. But it's that narrative that makes them so cheap."

He goes on to say that the U.K. economy isn't vibrant, and hasn't been for a long time. But that Brexit could furnish the energy to make the U.K. what he calls "The Singapore of Europe." "It isn't a pipe dream," says Arnott. "Unencumbered by E.U. regulations and horrific costs, they could follow in the footsteps of an Asian tiger." That's just the the upside scenario. If Britain simply returns to the pre-COVID, pre-Brexit U.K. of old, investors will prosper more than in any of the sexier markets where prices are exorbitant, and the big money's been made.

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