牛市会再一次到来吗?
虽然今年3月的股市已逐渐步入正轨,呈总体上涨态势(标准普尔500指数目前上涨约1.5%),但近几周,市场出现了一些波动。对于3月在股市中受挫的投资者来说,好消息或许将至:4月往往是股市表现强劲的时期。
“当提及4月时,我首先想到的是,从历史上看,这是标普500指数(S&P 500)表现最强劲的月份之一。”Ally Invest公司的首席投资策略师林赛·贝尔告诉《财富》杂志。
美国银行(Bank of America)的技术研究策略师斯蒂芬·萨特米尔指出,4月的到来对多头来说通常是一个好消息。“3月底的疲软季,可能在4月初的强劲季到来之前,为多头提供机会。”他在3月30日发布的一份报告中写道,“4月前10个交易日的平均回报率为0.88%(中值为1.12%)。”而3月最后10个交易日的平均回报率为负0.29%。
大多数月份,股票在月初的表现也往往比月末更好。萨特米尔指出:“从1928年开始的月度标普500指数季节性变化表明,某月的前10个交易日往往比最后10个交易日更强劲。2021年的前三个月均遵循了这种变化模式。”
对喜欢数据统计的人来说,LPL Financial公司的瑞安·德特里克指出(参见如下LPL的图表),4月是历史上股市“第二好的月份”。而且,德特里克在推特(Twitter)上指出,“大部分涨幅”往往发生在每月的前18天。
3月30日收盘时,标普500指数下跌了0.3%。“我认为现在是一个逢低买入的机会。”Ally Invest公司的贝尔说,“但是,这也提醒投资者们要有一些防御性敞口。”贝尔建议,投资者更多关注大型科技股和日用消费品等领域。
但是,并不是所有的策略师都认为4月会一帆风顺。相反,危险的信号已经出现:一直以来,不断上升的国债收益率让股票投资者们感到恼火(3月30日,10年期国债收益率已经攀升至1.7%以上)。贝尔表示:“在未来一两个月内,波动性可能会一直存在。而投资者可能会消化我们所处的新环境,即更高的利率和潜在的更高通胀。”
除此之外,贝尔等策略师正在密切关注其他领域,比如公司业绩、首席执行官和首席财务官们对通胀的看法,以及通胀数据本身。当然,还有美国总统乔·拜登即将出台的大规模基础设施一揽子计划的更多细节。
“不要让‘汹涌的波涛’影响你的投资选择。”贝尔说道,“坚持到底。但请评估自己的投资组合,并确保在市场上保留一些防御敞口,以便在接下来的几个月里更轻松一点。”
“从长远来看,”她补充说,“我认为2021年的情况看起来仍然很好。”(财富中文网)
编译:杨二一
牛市会再一次到来吗?
虽然今年3月的股市已逐渐步入正轨,呈总体上涨态势(标准普尔500指数目前上涨约1.5%),但近几周,市场出现了一些波动。对于3月在股市中受挫的投资者来说,好消息或许将至:4月往往是股市表现强劲的时期。
“当提及4月时,我首先想到的是,从历史上看,这是标普500指数(S&P 500)表现最强劲的月份之一。”Ally Invest公司的首席投资策略师林赛·贝尔告诉《财富》杂志。
美国银行(Bank of America)的技术研究策略师斯蒂芬·萨特米尔指出,4月的到来对多头来说通常是一个好消息。“3月底的疲软季,可能在4月初的强劲季到来之前,为多头提供机会。”他在3月30日发布的一份报告中写道,“4月前10个交易日的平均回报率为0.88%(中值为1.12%)。”而3月最后10个交易日的平均回报率为负0.29%。
大多数月份,股票在月初的表现也往往比月末更好。萨特米尔指出:“从1928年开始的月度标普500指数季节性变化表明,某月的前10个交易日往往比最后10个交易日更强劲。2021年的前三个月均遵循了这种变化模式。”
对喜欢数据统计的人来说,LPL Financial公司的瑞安·德特里克指出(参见如下LPL的图表),4月是历史上股市“第二好的月份”。而且,德特里克在推特(Twitter)上指出,“大部分涨幅”往往发生在每月的前18天。
3月30日收盘时,标普500指数下跌了0.3%。“我认为现在是一个逢低买入的机会。”Ally Invest公司的贝尔说,“但是,这也提醒投资者们要有一些防御性敞口。”贝尔建议,投资者更多关注大型科技股和日用消费品等领域。
但是,并不是所有的策略师都认为4月会一帆风顺。相反,危险的信号已经出现:一直以来,不断上升的国债收益率让股票投资者们感到恼火(3月30日,10年期国债收益率已经攀升至1.7%以上)。贝尔表示:“在未来一两个月内,波动性可能会一直存在。而投资者可能会消化我们所处的新环境,即更高的利率和潜在的更高通胀。”
除此之外,贝尔等策略师正在密切关注其他领域,比如公司业绩、首席执行官和首席财务官们对通胀的看法,以及通胀数据本身。当然,还有美国总统乔·拜登即将出台的大规模基础设施一揽子计划的更多细节。
“不要让‘汹涌的波涛’影响你的投资选择。”贝尔说道,“坚持到底。但请评估自己的投资组合,并确保在市场上保留一些防御敞口,以便在接下来的几个月里更轻松一点。”
“从长远来看,”她补充说,“我认为2021年的情况看起来仍然很好。”(财富中文网)
编译:杨二一
Could things be looking up for the bulls?
Though stocks are on track to post a gain for the month of March (currently up roughly 1.5% by the S&P 500's measure), markets have certainly been a bit volatile in recent weeks. But for investors dealing with a case of whiplash this month, there's some potentially good news: April tends to be a strong month for the stock market.
"When I think about April, the first thing I think is, it's one of the best performing months for the S&P 500, historically speaking," Lindsey Bell, chief investment strategist at Ally Invest, tells Fortune.
Stephen Suttmeier, technical research strategist at Bank of America, notes that the lead-up into April is often optimistic for the bulls: "Weak late March seasonality could offer an opportunity for the bulls ahead of strong early April seasonality," he wrote in a March 30 report, as "the first 10 sessions of April has an average return of 0.88% (1.12% median)," while the last 10 sessions of March has an average return of negative 0.29%. (See BofA's chart.)
Stocks also tend to perform better at the beginning of the month versus the end (for most months). As Suttmeier points out, "Monthly [S&P 500] seasonality back to 1928 shows that the first 10 sessions of the month tend to be stronger than the last 10 sessions of the month. The first three months of 2021 have followed this seasonal pattern," he wrote.
For those who favor statistics, April is historically the "second-best month" of the year for stocks, LPL Financial's Ryan Detrick points out (see LPL's chart), while the "majority of gains" tends to occur in the first 18 days of the month, Detrick noted on Twitter.
With the S&P 500 down just over 0.3% at the close on March 30, "I definitely think this is a buy-the-dip type of opportunity," says Ally's Bell, "but also I think it's a reminder for investors to have some of that defensive exposure." Bell suggests looking at areas like large tech stocks and consumer staples.
However, not all strategists foresee smooth sailing as we enter April. One danger sign? Rising Treasury yields, which have persistently irked stock investors (the 10-year yield climbed to over 1.7% on March 30). "I think that volatility is going to be probably here to stay for the next month or two while investors kind of digest this new environment that we're working with, which is higher interest rates and potentially higher inflation," says Bell.
Other areas strategists like Bell are eyeing closely are earnings, what CEOs and CFOs are saying about inflation, inflation data itself, and, of course, more details on President Joe Biden's massive forthcoming infrastructure package.
"Don't let rocky waters lead you to jumping ship," Bell suggests. "Stay the course, but review your portfolio [and] make sure you do have some exposure to those defensive components of the market to make the ride over the next couple months a little bit easier."
"Longer term," she adds, "I think the picture still looks really good for 2021."