截至目前,4月份美股表现强劲,标普500指数和道琼斯工业平均指数均创历史新高。但是从现在起投资者可能要面临逆转直下的行情走势。
根据LPL Financial公司的数据,股市出现逆转的部分原因在于虽然4月通常是美股表现最强劲的月份之一,但历史上股市大涨的局面大都出现在上半月。
事实也的确如此,LPL公司的瑞安·德特里克告诉《财富》杂志:“我们看到2021年的前三个月股市呈现这样一种态势:上半月表现非常强劲,下半月有些疲软无力。”他说道:“4月份最后十天左右股市似乎有些震荡。此外,他还指出“按照历史规律,一年中股票下跌最惨的时段通常是5月至10月底,尽管去年一年美股反弹至创纪录高点,但很显然动荡时期即将来临。”
德特里克补充说道:“短期内投资者最大的担忧可能就是这一动荡时期已经近在眼前了。”
对投资者而言,这无疑是一次重大转折,投资者不再顺风顺水,波动率(按波动率指数或恐慌指标衡量)跌至新冠疫情前水平。因此,瑞银集团(UBS)等企业纷纷发出警告。瑞银全球财富管理(UBS Global Wealth Management)首席投资官马克·海菲勒4月9日在一份报告中写道:“随着股票市场持续创下历史新高,一些投资者担心最近的波动率下滑可能不会持续下去”,并预测“短期内波动率还将定期维持高位。”
除此之外,德特里克等人称股市行情持续看涨这一现象可能本身也是一种警示信号:“至少对我而言最大的担忧就是一切都太好了。”随着强劲的经济数据出炉,正如预期的那样,第一季度实现“井喷式”盈利,德特里克表示:“按照我的逆向思维来看,不知道这一利好消息在多大程度上反映在股价中。”因此,如果未来几个月股市出现一两次修正(严格来说,股市下跌10%),他也不会感到惊讶。
与此同时,随着投资者将股价推至历史新高,股票市场的估值水平飙升(标普500指数的历史市盈率倍数达到33倍之高)。这导致一些分析师和市场观察者都非常小心谨慎。
截至目前,本周一股市全线下跌。在下午的交易中,标普500指数下跌约0.6%,道指下跌约0.4%,纳斯达克的跌幅更是超过了1.1%。
但是,不论是按照历史规律出现季节性疲软还是短期内可能迎来更高波动率,都未能打消分析师对股市长期看涨的预期。德特里克认为:“股市一旦剧烈震荡将会引起恐慌。但是投资者需要为此做好准备……并借此机会用更低的价格买进股票,这是我们依旧认为股市将会上涨最重要的原因。”(财富中文网)
译者:郝秀
审校:汪皓
截至目前,4月份美股表现强劲,标普500指数和道琼斯工业平均指数均创历史新高。但是从现在起投资者可能要面临逆转直下的行情走势。
根据LPL Financial公司的数据,股市出现逆转的部分原因在于虽然4月通常是美股表现最强劲的月份之一,但历史上股市大涨的局面大都出现在上半月。
事实也的确如此,LPL公司的瑞安·德特里克告诉《财富》杂志:“我们看到2021年的前三个月股市呈现这样一种态势:上半月表现非常强劲,下半月有些疲软无力。”他说道:“4月份最后十天左右股市似乎有些震荡。此外,他还指出“按照历史规律,一年中股票下跌最惨的时段通常是5月至10月底,尽管去年一年美股反弹至创纪录高点,但很显然动荡时期即将来临。”
德特里克补充说道:“短期内投资者最大的担忧可能就是这一动荡时期已经近在眼前了。”
对投资者而言,这无疑是一次重大转折,投资者不再顺风顺水,波动率(按波动率指数或恐慌指标衡量)跌至新冠疫情前水平。因此,瑞银集团(UBS)等企业纷纷发出警告。瑞银全球财富管理(UBS Global Wealth Management)首席投资官马克·海菲勒4月9日在一份报告中写道:“随着股票市场持续创下历史新高,一些投资者担心最近的波动率下滑可能不会持续下去”,并预测“短期内波动率还将定期维持高位。”
除此之外,德特里克等人称股市行情持续看涨这一现象可能本身也是一种警示信号:“至少对我而言最大的担忧就是一切都太好了。”随着强劲的经济数据出炉,正如预期的那样,第一季度实现“井喷式”盈利,德特里克表示:“按照我的逆向思维来看,不知道这一利好消息在多大程度上反映在股价中。”因此,如果未来几个月股市出现一两次修正(严格来说,股市下跌10%),他也不会感到惊讶。
与此同时,随着投资者将股价推至历史新高,股票市场的估值水平飙升(标普500指数的历史市盈率倍数达到33倍之高)。这导致一些分析师和市场观察者都非常小心谨慎。
截至目前,本周一股市全线下跌。在下午的交易中,标普500指数下跌约0.6%,道指下跌约0.4%,纳斯达克的跌幅更是超过了1.1%。
但是,不论是按照历史规律出现季节性疲软还是短期内可能迎来更高波动率,都未能打消分析师对股市长期看涨的预期。德特里克认为:“股市一旦剧烈震荡将会引起恐慌。但是投资者需要为此做好准备……并借此机会用更低的价格买进股票,这是我们依旧认为股市将会上涨最重要的原因。”(财富中文网)
译者:郝秀
审校:汪皓
So far in April stocks have had a great month, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrial average notching all-time highs. But things may be about to take a rockier turn for investors from here on out.
That’s in part because, although April generally tends to be one of the best months for the stock market, historically most of those gains are racked up in the first half of the month, per LPL Financial data.
Indeed, LPL’s Ryan Detrick tells Fortune that “this year, we’ve seen the pattern play out the first three months of really strong equities [in] the first half of the month and then some weakness the second half of the month,” and that “the last 10 days or so of April are kind of a little more rocky,” he says. What’s more, he notes that “the worst six months of the year historically is May through Halloween, and that is obviously on the horizon after just a record-breaking 12-month rally.”
Adds Detrick: “The calendar could potentially be one of investors’ biggest near-term worries.”
That would certainly be a turnaround from what has been a smooth stretch for investors, with volatility (as measured by the VIX index, or fear gauge) falling to pre-pandemic levels. That has prompted some firms like UBS to caution that, “with markets continuing to hit record highs, some investors are concerned that the recent decline in volatility may not last,” predicting “periodic bouts of higher volatility in the near term,” UBS Global Wealth Management chief investment officer Mark Haefele wrote in an April 9 report.
But more than that, those like Detrick note there’s so much bullishness all around that that might be its own warning sign: “The No. 1 concern, at least for me, is just everything is really good.” With strong economic data coming out and an expected “blowout” Q1 earnings season kicking off, “the contrarian in me wonders how much of this good news is priced in,” Detrick says. That’s why he wouldn’t be surprised if stocks saw a correction (technically a 10% selloff) or two in the coming months.
Meanwhile with investors pushing stocks up to all-time highs, valuations keep soaring (the S&P 500’s trailing P/E is a heady 33 times earnings). That in itself is making some analysts and market watchers alike wary.
So far on Monday, stocks are down across the board, with the S&P 500 down roughly 0.6%, the Dow off around 0.4%, and the Nasdaq over 1.1% lower in afternoon trading.
But neither the historically weaker seasonality nor the prospect of higher volatility in the near term are putting analysts off their bullish longer-term expectations. “It’ll be scary when it happens,” argues Detrick, “but investors need to start preparing for it…and use it as an opportunity to get things a little cheaper, which again is the name of the game in [what] we still think is an upward bull market.”