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以太坊摆脱比特币阴影逆袭,这些问题不可不知

与比特币一样,去中心化金融的发展也得益于自由主义世界观和对金钱的渴望。

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上周,长期处于比特币(Bitcoin)阴影之下的以太坊(Ethereum)暴涨超过50%,这番突破性的表现震动了整个加密货币圈。作为全球第二大加密货币,从年初至今,以太坊上涨超过360%。从去年3月末股市触底以来,以太坊涨幅达到惊人的2,200%。对于不了解这种加密货币或者对它好奇的读者,以下是有关以太坊你需要知道的一些信息。

什么是以太坊?

以太坊与比特币类似,是一种支持向任何人发送加密货币的技术,仅收取少量手续费。更重要的是,以太坊支持基于其区块链网络创建强大的、去中心化的应用,这些应用可以供任何人使用并且不会被封禁。以太坊的区块链网络核心是分布式计算系统。维塔利克·布特林在2013年的一份白皮书中首先提出这种概念,2015年以太坊正式推出。

是否能够使用以太坊来真正做些什么?

正如本·卡尔森为《财富》杂志撰写的文章中所说,当然可以。这是以太坊价格暴涨的主要原因:

此轮加密货币行情有两个特征是2017年的行情所不具备的:机构持有和实际应用。据《金融时报》(Financial Times)报道,Coinbase平台上来自机构的资产从2020年年底的450亿美元现在已经增加到超过1,220亿美元。加密货币自诞生以来,其发展大部分情况是受到个人和零售持有的推动,而这种情况正在发生变化。

然而,真正推动以太坊价格上涨的原因是其用途。以太坊与比特币类似,但它是一种高度可编程的区块链。这意味着开发者能够在以太坊平台上编写代码、创建规则和开发应用。以太坊的“智能合约”可以用于以安全的方式验证协议。

在以太坊上开发的应用,类似于在苹果公司(Apple)的应用商店(App Store)或谷歌(Google)的安卓(Android)系统上开发的应用程序。最大的区别是,以太坊网络不受任何科技巨头的控制,一切均通过计算机代码进行操作。加密货币吸引许多人追捧的主要原因在于其控制权被分散。加密货币背后的基本理念是,由于区块链的安全性,每个人都能够创建所有权凭证规则,并自动执行软件程序。

在网络上消费时,你需要使用以太坊的加密货币以太币。《华尔街日报》(Wall Street Journal)报道称,2021年前4个月,新创建的持有以太坊资产的账户共有超过700万,总量超过5,500万。第一季度的以太坊交易总额达到1.5万亿美元,超过前七个季度的总额。

什么是“dapp”?

dapp是指在以太坊上运行的去中心化应用。想象一个不需要类似于Coinbase这种集中中介机构的加密货币交易平台(例如Uniswap)。再比如一个没有Facebook或者马克·扎克伯格发号施令的社交媒体网络(这似乎是杰克·多尔西为推特设想的基于区块链的终极版“蓝天”计划)。以太坊可以有无数种用途,例如博彩、众包投资、去Uber化的Uber替代应用等。

以太币能够涨到多高?

deVere集团(deVere Group)的首席执行官及创始人奈杰尔·格林表示,以太坊的时代已经到来,而且其数字货币将扩大市场份额。

他说:“以太币是加密货币市场爆发性增长的主要受益者之一。”格林在5月初称:“近几个月的市场繁荣主要得益于大批大型机构投资者对加密货币的兴趣激增,并且无国界数字货币代表了未来货币的观念得到更多认可。这种势头在短期内将会延续,而且我认为以太币的价格有望突破5,000美元。”

分析“DeFi”的作用

DeFi是“去中心化金融”的缩写,读作“DEE-fie”。《财富》杂志的前撰稿人骆杰峰(Jeff Roberts)最近分析了这个话题。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的前银行家彼得·约翰逊指出:“对去中心化金融最简单的描述是,它是一个开放金融网络。无论汇款还是借贷,你不需要加入私人网络,比如PayPal或者Fedwire或者银行等。”约翰逊在芝加哥的Jump Capital公司担任高管,该公司专门从事金融科技和加密货币投资。

与比特币一样,去中心化金融的发展也得益于自由主义世界观和对金钱的渴望。但与2017年的加密货币狂热不同,如今精明的交易商已经不需要依赖资产价格波动来赚取回报。相反,他们可以借助各种网站,以较高利率借出他们的加密货币。

大公司是否接受以太坊?

部分公司支持以太坊。《财富》杂志曾经报道称:“在需求增长的同时,以太坊供应量在持续下滑,包括万事达卡(Mastercard)、瑞银集团(UBS)和摩根大通(JPMorgan)等大公司在内,许多公司都在投资开展以太坊业务的初创公司。”

什么是以太坊的公允价格?

卡尔森在《财富》杂志的文章中称,这个问题很难回答。“单纯从金融资产的角度来考虑,这无法帮助我们确定以太坊的公允价格究竟是多少。价格的大幅上涨可能是考虑到了这种技术的未来潜力。市场动向、投机和错失焦虑症也影响了以太坊的价格。你无法确定以太坊的‘公允’价值,或者其可能达到的‘公允’价值。加密货币就像是一种大宗商品,无法用现金流、利润、股息或收入流进行估值。关键取决于供需关系。目前,以太坊的需求依旧强劲。假设其使用案例继续增加,在一段时间内以太坊可能依旧有旺盛的需求。”

如果你持有以太币,什么时候能够出售?

你会变现离场吗?还是继续加码,希望未来获得更高的收益?你是否希望可以选中下一个大赢家?

卡尔森建议投资者思考一下这四个问题。第五个也是最后一个问题尤其切中要害。问问自己:出现哪种情况会让我最后悔?

投资本身就是将遗憾降至最低的一种形式。你现在放弃消费,希望未来能够有更多资金,有机会进行其他消费。

危机当前,有些投资者善于咬牙坚持。有些投资者更适合减少波动的风险管理策略,即使降低风险从长远来看意味着预期回报较低。

无论你属于哪一类投资者,如果你的投资组合带来丰厚收益之后,出现哪种情况会让你更后悔:(1)过早出售导致错失更多收益,还是(2)因为持有时间过长导致先前的收益成为泡影?想清楚这个问题,就可以帮助你做出决定。(财富中文网)

翻译:刘进龙

审校:汪皓

上周,长期处于比特币(Bitcoin)阴影之下的以太坊(Ethereum)暴涨超过50%,这番突破性的表现震动了整个加密货币圈。作为全球第二大加密货币,从年初至今,以太坊上涨超过360%。从去年3月末股市触底以来,以太坊涨幅达到惊人的2,200%。对于不了解这种加密货币或者对它好奇的读者,以下是有关以太坊你需要知道的一些信息。

什么是以太坊?

以太坊与比特币类似,是一种支持向任何人发送加密货币的技术,仅收取少量手续费。更重要的是,以太坊支持基于其区块链网络创建强大的、去中心化的应用,这些应用可以供任何人使用并且不会被封禁。以太坊的区块链网络核心是分布式计算系统。维塔利克·布特林在2013年的一份白皮书中首先提出这种概念,2015年以太坊正式推出。

是否能够使用以太坊来真正做些什么?

正如本·卡尔森为《财富》杂志撰写的文章中所说,当然可以。这是以太坊价格暴涨的主要原因:

此轮加密货币行情有两个特征是2017年的行情所不具备的:机构持有和实际应用。据《金融时报》(Financial Times)报道,Coinbase平台上来自机构的资产从2020年年底的450亿美元现在已经增加到超过1,220亿美元。加密货币自诞生以来,其发展大部分情况是受到个人和零售持有的推动,而这种情况正在发生变化。

然而,真正推动以太坊价格上涨的原因是其用途。以太坊与比特币类似,但它是一种高度可编程的区块链。这意味着开发者能够在以太坊平台上编写代码、创建规则和开发应用。以太坊的“智能合约”可以用于以安全的方式验证协议。

在以太坊上开发的应用,类似于在苹果公司(Apple)的应用商店(App Store)或谷歌(Google)的安卓(Android)系统上开发的应用程序。最大的区别是,以太坊网络不受任何科技巨头的控制,一切均通过计算机代码进行操作。加密货币吸引许多人追捧的主要原因在于其控制权被分散。加密货币背后的基本理念是,由于区块链的安全性,每个人都能够创建所有权凭证规则,并自动执行软件程序。

在网络上消费时,你需要使用以太坊的加密货币以太币。《华尔街日报》(Wall Street Journal)报道称,2021年前4个月,新创建的持有以太坊资产的账户共有超过700万,总量超过5,500万。第一季度的以太坊交易总额达到1.5万亿美元,超过前七个季度的总额。

什么是“dapp”?

dapp是指在以太坊上运行的去中心化应用。想象一个不需要类似于Coinbase这种集中中介机构的加密货币交易平台(例如Uniswap)。再比如一个没有Facebook或者马克·扎克伯格发号施令的社交媒体网络(这似乎是杰克·多尔西为推特设想的基于区块链的终极版“蓝天”计划)。以太坊可以有无数种用途,例如博彩、众包投资、去Uber化的Uber替代应用等。

以太币能够涨到多高?

deVere集团(deVere Group)的首席执行官及创始人奈杰尔·格林表示,以太坊的时代已经到来,而且其数字货币将扩大市场份额。

他说:“以太币是加密货币市场爆发性增长的主要受益者之一。”格林在5月初称:“近几个月的市场繁荣主要得益于大批大型机构投资者对加密货币的兴趣激增,并且无国界数字货币代表了未来货币的观念得到更多认可。这种势头在短期内将会延续,而且我认为以太币的价格有望突破5,000美元。”

分析“DeFi”的作用

DeFi是“去中心化金融”的缩写,读作“DEE-fie”。《财富》杂志的前撰稿人骆杰峰(Jeff Roberts)最近分析了这个话题。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的前银行家彼得·约翰逊指出:“对去中心化金融最简单的描述是,它是一个开放金融网络。无论汇款还是借贷,你不需要加入私人网络,比如PayPal或者Fedwire或者银行等。”约翰逊在芝加哥的Jump Capital公司担任高管,该公司专门从事金融科技和加密货币投资。

与比特币一样,去中心化金融的发展也得益于自由主义世界观和对金钱的渴望。但与2017年的加密货币狂热不同,如今精明的交易商已经不需要依赖资产价格波动来赚取回报。相反,他们可以借助各种网站,以较高利率借出他们的加密货币。

大公司是否接受以太坊?

部分公司支持以太坊。《财富》杂志曾经报道称:“在需求增长的同时,以太坊供应量在持续下滑,包括万事达卡(Mastercard)、瑞银集团(UBS)和摩根大通(JPMorgan)等大公司在内,许多公司都在投资开展以太坊业务的初创公司。”

什么是以太坊的公允价格?

卡尔森在《财富》杂志的文章中称,这个问题很难回答。“单纯从金融资产的角度来考虑,这无法帮助我们确定以太坊的公允价格究竟是多少。价格的大幅上涨可能是考虑到了这种技术的未来潜力。市场动向、投机和错失焦虑症也影响了以太坊的价格。你无法确定以太坊的‘公允’价值,或者其可能达到的‘公允’价值。加密货币就像是一种大宗商品,无法用现金流、利润、股息或收入流进行估值。关键取决于供需关系。目前,以太坊的需求依旧强劲。假设其使用案例继续增加,在一段时间内以太坊可能依旧有旺盛的需求。”

如果你持有以太币,什么时候能够出售?

你会变现离场吗?还是继续加码,希望未来获得更高的收益?你是否希望可以选中下一个大赢家?

卡尔森建议投资者思考一下这四个问题。第五个也是最后一个问题尤其切中要害。问问自己:出现哪种情况会让我最后悔?

投资本身就是将遗憾降至最低的一种形式。你现在放弃消费,希望未来能够有更多资金,有机会进行其他消费。

危机当前,有些投资者善于咬牙坚持。有些投资者更适合减少波动的风险管理策略,即使降低风险从长远来看意味着预期回报较低。

无论你属于哪一类投资者,如果你的投资组合带来丰厚收益之后,出现哪种情况会让你更后悔:(1)过早出售导致错失更多收益,还是(2)因为持有时间过长导致先前的收益成为泡影?想清楚这个问题,就可以帮助你做出决定。(财富中文网)

翻译:刘进龙

审校:汪皓

The crypto world has been transfixed as Ethereum, long stuck in the shadows of Bitcoin, had a breakout stretch, rising more than 50% in the past week. Year to date, the world’s second largest cryptocurrency has risen more than 360%. And since the stock market bottomed late last March, Ethereum is up an astonishing 2,200%. For those new to crypto or just curious, here's what you need to know about ETH.

What is Ethereum?

Ethereum is, like Bitcoin, a technology that lets you send cryptocurrency to anyone for a small fee. More significantly, Ethereum lets people build powerful, decentralized applications on top of its blockchain network—the distributed computing system at its core—that everyone can use and no one can take down. First outlined in a 2013 white paper by Vitalik Buterin, Ethereum launched in 2015.

Can you actually use Ethereum for anything?

As Ben Carlson wrote for Fortune, yes you can. And that's a big reason the price is soaring:

The crypto run this time has two features the 2017 version didn’t—institutional adoption and actual applications. According to the Financial Times, Coinbase now has more than $122 billion in institutional capital on its platform, up from just $45 billion at the end of 2020. For most of its existence, crypto has been driven by individual and retail adoption. That is changing.

But it’s the uses that are likely driving Ethereum higher. Ethereum is a blockchain just like Bitcoin but it differs in that it is highly programmable. This means developers can write code, create rules, and make applications on the platform. The “smart contracts” behind them can be used to validate agreements securely.

You can think of the applications that can be built on Ethereum much like the apps that can be developed on Apple’s App Store or Google’s Android system. The biggest difference is there are no giant tech behemoths behind the scenes controlling Ethereum’s network—instead everything is done by computer code. This is what attracted so many people to crypto in the first place: It’s decentralized in terms of who controls it. The general idea is you can create rules for proof of ownership and automatically executing software programs because of the security of the blockchain.

And you need Ether, the cryptocurrency that powers Ethereum, to buy things on the network. According to the Wall Street Journal, more than 7 million new accounts that hold Ethereum balances were created in the first four months of 2021, bringing the total up to more than 55 million. Transactions totaled $1.5 trillion in the first quarter, more than the previous seven quarters combined.

What's a “dapp”?

These are decentralized apps that run on Ethereum. Imagine a cryptocurrency exchange without the need for a centralized intermediary, like a Coinbase. (That's Uniswap.) Picture a social media network that has no Facebook or Mark Zuckerberg calling all the shots. (That seems to be Jack Dorsey's ultimate, blockchain-based "blue sky" plan for Twitter.) The options are endless: Gaming, crowd-sourced investing, an Uber-less Uber alternative, and on.

How high can ETH go?

Nigel Green, CEO and founder of deVere Group, says Ethereum’s time has come—and the digital currency is well positioned to increase its market share.

“Ether is one of the main beneficiaries in the wider explosion in the cryptocurrency market,” he says. “The boom over recent months has been fueled by soaring interest from major institutional investors and growing recognition that borderless digital currencies are the future of money. This momentum is likely to build further in the near-term and I believe Ether will hit $5,000,” he said in early May.

Explain how “DeFi” plays into all of this

DeFi—pronounced "DEE-fie"—is short for "decentralized finance." Former Fortune writer Jeff Roberts recently dove into this topic. "The simplest way to describe DeFi is as an open financial network. If you want to send, lend or borrow money you don't need to join a private network like PayPal or Fedwire or a bank," says Peter Johnson, a former Morgan Stanley banker who is now an executive at Chicago's Jump Capital, a firm that specializes in fintech and cryptocurrency.

Like Bitcoin, the broader world of DeFi is fueled by a libertarian worldview, and a thirst for money. But unlike the crypto mania of 2017, savvy traders don't have to rely on swings in asset prices to earn a return. Instead, they can turn to a variety of websites that let people loan out their cryptocurrency, often for high rates of interest.

Are big companies embracing Ethereum?

Some have. According to Fortune, "The supply of Ethereum has also been dropping amid increased demand and businesses have been investing in startups that revolve around Ethereum, including such big names as Mastercard, UBS, and JPMorgan."

What's a fair price for Ethereum?

Carlson wrote in Fortune that there's no easy way to answer that question. "From a purely financial asset perspective, none of this helps us determine what the fair price is for Ethereum itself. The soaring price is likely taking into account the future potential of this technology. There is also an element of momentum, speculation, and the fear of missing out at play here. It’s impossible to know what the “fair” value of Ethereum is or could be. Crypto is like a commodity in that there are no cash flows, profits, dividends, or income streams to use for valuation purposes. It’s all supply and demand. Right now, the demand for Ethereum remains strong. Assuming the use cases continue to grow, that demand could remain for a while."

If you own ETH, when should you sell?

Do you take profits off the table? Let your winnings rise in hopes of even greater gains in the future? Try to pick the next big winner?

Carlson advises asking yourself these four questions. The fifth and final one is especially germane. Ask yourself: What would bring me the most regret?

Investing itself is a form of regret minimization. You’re forgoing consumption now to give yourself the opportunity to consume something else, hopefully with more money, in the future.

Some investors are better than others at holding on for dear life during a crash. Others are better suited for a risk management strategy that reduces volatility, even if that reduction in risk comes in the form of lower expected returns over the long haul.

Whatever your disposition, it can pay to figure out what you would regret more after sitting on big gains in your portfolio: (1) Missing out on further gains if you sell too early, or (2) Seeing those gains evaporate if you hold on too long.

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