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比特币狂泄,高盛为何仍看多Coinbase?

Ann Sraders
2021-05-26

在加密货币的原生系统不断扩大的过程中,Coinbase是涉足这一领域的最佳途径。

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如今,在看涨Coinbase的多头里,可以加上高盛集团(Goldman Sachs)了。

5月24日,高盛开始将这家新上市的加密货币交易所评为“买入”一级,将该股在未来12个月内的目标价格定为每股306美元,这意味着和5月21日的收盘价相比,该股票可能会再飙升36%。(截至5月24日午盘交易,这家刚上市不久的公司股价为226美元)

高盛为什么要这么做?根据该机构分析师在5月24日给出的报告,他们认为,“在加密货币的原生系统不断扩大的过程中,Coinbase是涉足这一领域的最佳途径”。

尽管Coinbase仍然只是一个“初生”的生态系统,也不是高盛基本盘的重要组成部分,但是高盛表示,它正在关注相关的技术增长及应用状况,例如基于稳定代币的支付方式、去中心化金融(DeFi)创新或自动区块链应用、非同质化代币(NFT),以及“为现实资产的代币化创造市场”。

高盛的分析师写道:“如果那些有意义的经济成分能够随着时间的推移向区块链和加密货币原生技术过渡,作为这一生态系统的金融基础设施,[Coinbase]的地位非常关键,它将前途无量,从中受益巨大。”(分析师还指出,Coinbase的安全性和合规性也可以助此一臂之力。)

除了在区块链生态系统中的作用,高盛还预测,Coinbase从交易手续费中获得的收入也将强劲增长,这无疑是Coinbase最大的收入来源:“短期内,用户数量持续大增,这[将]推动这部分业务实现稳健、有机的增长。”

和其他分析师一样,高盛的团队也指出,投资者可能“过于关注”在Coinbase上交易的,例如比特币(Bitcoin)和以太坊(Ethereum)等加密货币的价格涨跌,而忽略了一个事实,即利好Coinbase的恰恰是波动性本身,这和传统意义上的股票或证券经纪公司业务模式类似。最近,就在上周加密货币跌得最惨烈的那天,投资机构D.A. Davidson的分析师吉尔•卢里亚告诉《财富》杂志:“波动性是真正推动Coinbase业绩的因素——它要人们买卖比特币……而不管比特币的涨跌。”

与其他华尔街人一样,从长远来看,高盛并不认为交易手续费是Coinbase唯一的筹码:“虽然[Coinbase]现在非交易手续费的收入只占4%,但我们相信,该公司会慢慢上线更多辅助功能,除了其核心业务,这些来自订户和其他服务的额外收入也可能大涨。”包括抵押式贷款(类似于保证金贷款),以及机构用户业务的进一步增加。实际上,高盛的报告指出:“尽管我们认为该公司现在的核心业务增长势头可观,并有望进一步扩大其盈利能力,但我们还看到,留给他们拓展新业务的空间非常大,能够让他们获得更稳定、源源不断的收入。”

当然,高盛也考虑到Coinbase中存在的一些主要风险。包括对加密货币行业的监管、波动性降低、币价下跌、交易手续费率下跌等。

确实,正如卢里亚指出的那样:“从长远来看,Coinbase的价格和市值将与加密经济行业的整体成功联系在一起,而这还是与加密货币的价格密切相关。”(财富中文网)

编译:陈聪聪

如今,在看涨Coinbase的多头里,可以加上高盛集团(Goldman Sachs)了。

5月24日,高盛开始将这家新上市的加密货币交易所评为“买入”一级,将该股在未来12个月内的目标价格定为每股306美元,这意味着和5月21日的收盘价相比,该股票可能会再飙升36%。(截至5月24日午盘交易,这家刚上市不久的公司股价为226美元)

高盛为什么要这么做?根据该机构分析师在5月24日给出的报告,他们认为,“在加密货币的原生系统不断扩大的过程中,Coinbase是涉足这一领域的最佳途径”。

尽管Coinbase仍然只是一个“初生”的生态系统,也不是高盛基本盘的重要组成部分,但是高盛表示,它正在关注相关的技术增长及应用状况,例如基于稳定代币的支付方式、去中心化金融(DeFi)创新或自动区块链应用、非同质化代币(NFT),以及“为现实资产的代币化创造市场”。

高盛的分析师写道:“如果那些有意义的经济成分能够随着时间的推移向区块链和加密货币原生技术过渡,作为这一生态系统的金融基础设施,[Coinbase]的地位非常关键,它将前途无量,从中受益巨大。”(分析师还指出,Coinbase的安全性和合规性也可以助此一臂之力。)

除了在区块链生态系统中的作用,高盛还预测,Coinbase从交易手续费中获得的收入也将强劲增长,这无疑是Coinbase最大的收入来源:“短期内,用户数量持续大增,这[将]推动这部分业务实现稳健、有机的增长。”

和其他分析师一样,高盛的团队也指出,投资者可能“过于关注”在Coinbase上交易的,例如比特币(Bitcoin)和以太坊(Ethereum)等加密货币的价格涨跌,而忽略了一个事实,即利好Coinbase的恰恰是波动性本身,这和传统意义上的股票或证券经纪公司业务模式类似。最近,就在上周加密货币跌得最惨烈的那天,投资机构D.A. Davidson的分析师吉尔•卢里亚告诉《财富》杂志:“波动性是真正推动Coinbase业绩的因素——它要人们买卖比特币……而不管比特币的涨跌。”

与其他华尔街人一样,从长远来看,高盛并不认为交易手续费是Coinbase唯一的筹码:“虽然[Coinbase]现在非交易手续费的收入只占4%,但我们相信,该公司会慢慢上线更多辅助功能,除了其核心业务,这些来自订户和其他服务的额外收入也可能大涨。”包括抵押式贷款(类似于保证金贷款),以及机构用户业务的进一步增加。实际上,高盛的报告指出:“尽管我们认为该公司现在的核心业务增长势头可观,并有望进一步扩大其盈利能力,但我们还看到,留给他们拓展新业务的空间非常大,能够让他们获得更稳定、源源不断的收入。”

当然,高盛也考虑到Coinbase中存在的一些主要风险。包括对加密货币行业的监管、波动性降低、币价下跌、交易手续费率下跌等。

确实,正如卢里亚指出的那样:“从长远来看,Coinbase的价格和市值将与加密经济行业的整体成功联系在一起,而这还是与加密货币的价格密切相关。”(财富中文网)

编译:陈聪聪

You can add Goldman Sachs to the list of Coinbase bulls.

The firm initiated coverage of the newly public cryptocurrency exchange on May 24 with a "buy" rating, assigning it a 12-month price target of $306 per share—implying that the stock could soar another 36% from its May 21 close price. (As of early afternoon trading on May 24, the stock is at $226, having had a rough debut so far in the public markets.)

Among the many reasons for that call? Goldman analysts believe Coinbase is "the best way to gain exposure to the expansion of the crypto-native ecosystem," the analysts wrote in the May 24 report.

Though it's still a "nascent" ecosystem and not a big part of Goldman's base case for Coinbase, the firm says it's watching the growth and adoption of technologies like stablecoin-based payments; "innovations" in DeFi, or decentralized autonomous blockchain applications; and NFTs, or non-fungible tokens and the "creation of markets for tokenized, real-world assets."

"If meaningful parts of the economy can transition to blockchain and crypto-native technology over time," the analysts wrote, "we see significant opportunity for [Coinbase] to benefit from its status as a critical element of the financial infrastructure for the ecosystem." (The analysts also point out that Coinbase's security and regulatory compliance helps bolster that case.)

Apart from Coinbase's role in the blockchain ecosystem, Goldman sees strong growth in the firm's transaction revenues, far and away Coinbase's biggest slice of sales, predicting that near term, "continued strong growth in users [will be] driving solid organic growth for the business."

Much like other analysts, the Goldman team note that investors may be "too focused" on the price of stalwart coins traded on Coinbase, like Bitcoin and Ethereum, instead of on the fact that volatility itself is a boon for the firm's business, just like at traditional stock or securities brokerages. D.A. Davidson analyst Gil Luria recently told Fortune on an especially rough day for crypto last week that, "The level of volatility is what really drives results for Coinbase—people buying and selling Bitcoin... not Bitcoin going up or down."

Like others on the Street, Goldman doesn't see trading fees as the only name of the game for the longer term: The firm notes that "While just 4% of [Coinbase’s] revenue now comes from non-trading activities, we believe subscription and services revenue has the potential to see outsized growth relative to the core run rate of the business as [Coinbase] rolls out additional ancillary services over time," including collateralized lending (which they describe as similar to margin lending) and the further growth of the firm's institutional business. Indeed, Goldman's report notes that "while we believe the core business today offers an attractive growth profile with the potential to drive high levels of profitability, we see significant white space for new initiatives to drive more stable and recurring revenue streams."

Of course, Goldman is eyeing a few key risks for Coinbase, too. That includes regulation of the cryptocurrency space, lower volatility and declining prices of coins, and lower commission rates.

Indeed, as D.A. Davidson's Luria noted, "long term, Coinbase's price and value is going to be tied to the overall success of the crypto economy, which is tied to crypto prices."

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