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报告证实:特斯拉投资比特币的环境成本巨大

Shawn Tully
2021-06-21

这份报告提供的数据证明,特斯拉的绿色目标和对比特币的热情是相互矛盾的。

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在1942年的电影《来吃晚餐的人》(The Man Who Came to Dinner)中,传奇喜剧演员吉米•杜兰特用一首名为“你是否有想留下来的感觉”(Did You Ever Have the Feeling That You Wanted to Stay)的疯狂歌曲逗乐了战时的观众。吉米坐在钢琴前,旋律激荡的音乐展现了他不知是来还是去的矛盾心理。这位矮脚滑稽演员不停起身,戴上斯泰森毡帽,好像要离开,然后又坐下来,脱掉帽子,又好像想留下来。在做溜溜球动作的时候,他敲着琴键颤抖着说:“你曾经有想离开的感觉,但仍然有想留下来的感觉。走或留,留或走,又想走的时候,你却又改变了主意!”

埃隆•马斯克对比特币(Bitcoin)的态度起伏不定,与吉米“你有过那种感觉吗”的进退两难不谋而合。今年早些时候,这位特斯拉(Tesla)的首席执行官以15亿美元购买了这种标志性加密货币一举成名,引发了一场巨大的反弹。随后在5月,他又在推特(Twitter)上表示,由于比特币的碳排放太大,特斯拉将不再接受比特币作为其电动汽车的付款方式,又引发了一轮抛售。在今年6月初,马斯克发布了一个关于一对情侣分手的表情包——伴随着比特币的话题标签和心碎表情——似乎是在暗示要放弃比特币。几周后,这位汽车行业的大明星似乎又把他的斯泰森毡帽搁在一边,在键盘前坐了下来,并在推特上发文称:“在矿商合理(约50%)使用清洁能源的情况下,特斯拉将恢复接受比特币。”

现在,一份新的报告显示了用于开采特斯拉比特币的碳是如何抵消其电动汽车节省的大部分排放的。它提供的数据证明,特斯拉的绿色目标和对比特币的热情是相互矛盾的。这份报告中的发现应该给马斯克一个充分的理由去反思一下。

这项研究题为“数字货币的真实成本:探索能源使用之外的影响”(The True Costs of Digital Currencies: Exploring Impact Beyond Energy Use),发表在爱思唯尔(Elsevier)的期刊《一个地球》(One Earth)上。论文的作者是荷兰央行经济学家亚历克斯•德•弗里斯、慕尼黑大学(University of Munich)的乌尔里希•加勒斯多弗和克里斯蒂安•斯托尔,以及麻省理工学院(MIT)的莱娜•克拉森。弗里斯还运营着一个跟踪比特币能源足迹的网站Digiconomist。该报告对比特币在ESG、能源、社会影响和治理三个方面的缺点进行了全面分析。但我将关注这些作者如何首次量化特斯拉持有的比特币在比特币排放中所占的份额。

他们指出,比特币挖矿消耗的能源几乎相当于全球所有数据中心的总和,产生的二氧化碳排放量相当于伦敦市的碳排放量。这篇论文估计,比特币每年产生9020万吨碳气体。根据国际能源署(International Energy Agency)的计算,这一数额几乎超过了以电动汽车取代汽油汽车所实现的年度总减少量的两倍。

为了得出特斯拉在比特币排放中的“份额”,这些作者援引了《温室气体协议》(Greenhouse Gas Protocol)并做出自己的解读,该协议决定了一家公司对其他排放碳氢化合物的企业的股权投资的碳足迹份额。假设公司A是公司B的被动投资者,无权决定公司B的能源政策。如果公司A拥有公司B 20%的股份,《温室气体协议》系统将公司B五分之一的碳排放分配给公司A。显然,比特币不是一家公司,但对特斯拉来说,它显然是一种投资。因此,将比特币的碳排放比例分配给特斯拉,使其在所有比特币中的所有权份额相匹配,是说得通的。

这些作者估计,特斯拉在2021年年初大手笔采购了43,345枚比特币,在第一季结束时卖出了这其中的10%,至今仍然持有39,092枚。据本人估计,目前的数量还要略高一些,约为41,000枚。矿工挖出了近1,900万枚比特币,但约20%的比特币已经散佚。因此,在市场上流通的约1,500万枚中,特斯拉拥有约0.26%。它在比特币年碳排放量中的“份额”是9,020万公吨的0.25%,即24万公吨。

那么,这个数字与特斯拉声称其电动汽车每年节省的排放量相比,又如何呢?特斯拉没有给出年报数据,但提供了其他数据作为估计。在合著者德•弗里斯的帮助下,我得出了以下近似结论。在2019年4月的一份环境影响报告中,特斯拉表示,到那时为止,该公司已经减少了400万吨二氧化碳排放。最近,特斯拉在其网站上公布,目前减少的排放量已经超过了1,600万公吨。因此,在过去的两年里,特斯拉估计它的排放量减少了大约1,200万公吨,即每年600万公吨。因此,我们将把2020年实现的减排目标定为两年总减排目标的一半,即6公吨。

结论就是:在特斯拉资产负债表上产生的近4万枚比特币的排放量,相当于其汽车避免污染大气排放的4%。2020年,特斯拉交付了18.1万辆汽车。你可能会说,它与比特币的姻亲关系抹去了7,000多辆电动汽车的环保效益。德•弗里斯称,如果买家在48个月内用比特币购买一辆特斯拉,比特币交易的碳排放将超过驾驶电动汽车所节省的碳排放量。

当然,我们不知道马斯克是否会继续为特斯拉的金库购买比特币,还是继续接受比特币购买其S、X、Y和3等车型。但马斯克购买或持有的每一枚比特币都是通过向空气中排放温室气体开采出来的。其金库里的每一枚硬币都在破坏特斯拉作为终极绿色捍卫者的形象。难怪一说到比特币,埃隆•马斯克不知道自己“是离开还是留下”。(财富中文网)

编译:陈聪聪

在1942年的电影《来吃晚餐的人》(The Man Who Came to Dinner)中,传奇喜剧演员吉米•杜兰特用一首名为“你是否有想留下来的感觉”(Did You Ever Have the Feeling That You Wanted to Stay)的疯狂歌曲逗乐了战时的观众。吉米坐在钢琴前,旋律激荡的音乐展现了他不知是来还是去的矛盾心理。这位矮脚滑稽演员不停起身,戴上斯泰森毡帽,好像要离开,然后又坐下来,脱掉帽子,又好像想留下来。在做溜溜球动作的时候,他敲着琴键颤抖着说:“你曾经有想离开的感觉,但仍然有想留下来的感觉。走或留,留或走,又想走的时候,你却又改变了主意!”

埃隆•马斯克对比特币(Bitcoin)的态度起伏不定,与吉米“你有过那种感觉吗”的进退两难不谋而合。今年早些时候,这位特斯拉(Tesla)的首席执行官以15亿美元购买了这种标志性加密货币一举成名,引发了一场巨大的反弹。随后在5月,他又在推特(Twitter)上表示,由于比特币的碳排放太大,特斯拉将不再接受比特币作为其电动汽车的付款方式,又引发了一轮抛售。在今年6月初,马斯克发布了一个关于一对情侣分手的表情包——伴随着比特币的话题标签和心碎表情——似乎是在暗示要放弃比特币。几周后,这位汽车行业的大明星似乎又把他的斯泰森毡帽搁在一边,在键盘前坐了下来,并在推特上发文称:“在矿商合理(约50%)使用清洁能源的情况下,特斯拉将恢复接受比特币。”

现在,一份新的报告显示了用于开采特斯拉比特币的碳是如何抵消其电动汽车节省的大部分排放的。它提供的数据证明,特斯拉的绿色目标和对比特币的热情是相互矛盾的。这份报告中的发现应该给马斯克一个充分的理由去反思一下。

这项研究题为“数字货币的真实成本:探索能源使用之外的影响”(The True Costs of Digital Currencies: Exploring Impact Beyond Energy Use),发表在爱思唯尔(Elsevier)的期刊《一个地球》(One Earth)上。论文的作者是荷兰央行经济学家亚历克斯•德•弗里斯、慕尼黑大学(University of Munich)的乌尔里希•加勒斯多弗和克里斯蒂安•斯托尔,以及麻省理工学院(MIT)的莱娜•克拉森。弗里斯还运营着一个跟踪比特币能源足迹的网站Digiconomist。该报告对比特币在ESG、能源、社会影响和治理三个方面的缺点进行了全面分析。但我将关注这些作者如何首次量化特斯拉持有的比特币在比特币排放中所占的份额。

他们指出,比特币挖矿消耗的能源几乎相当于全球所有数据中心的总和,产生的二氧化碳排放量相当于伦敦市的碳排放量。这篇论文估计,比特币每年产生9020万吨碳气体。根据国际能源署(International Energy Agency)的计算,这一数额几乎超过了以电动汽车取代汽油汽车所实现的年度总减少量的两倍。

为了得出特斯拉在比特币排放中的“份额”,这些作者援引了《温室气体协议》(Greenhouse Gas Protocol)并做出自己的解读,该协议决定了一家公司对其他排放碳氢化合物的企业的股权投资的碳足迹份额。假设公司A是公司B的被动投资者,无权决定公司B的能源政策。如果公司A拥有公司B 20%的股份,《温室气体协议》系统将公司B五分之一的碳排放分配给公司A。显然,比特币不是一家公司,但对特斯拉来说,它显然是一种投资。因此,将比特币的碳排放比例分配给特斯拉,使其在所有比特币中的所有权份额相匹配,是说得通的。

这些作者估计,特斯拉在2021年年初大手笔采购了43,345枚比特币,在第一季结束时卖出了这其中的10%,至今仍然持有39,092枚。据本人估计,目前的数量还要略高一些,约为41,000枚。矿工挖出了近1,900万枚比特币,但约20%的比特币已经散佚。因此,在市场上流通的约1,500万枚中,特斯拉拥有约0.26%。它在比特币年碳排放量中的“份额”是9,020万公吨的0.25%,即24万公吨。

那么,这个数字与特斯拉声称其电动汽车每年节省的排放量相比,又如何呢?特斯拉没有给出年报数据,但提供了其他数据作为估计。在合著者德•弗里斯的帮助下,我得出了以下近似结论。在2019年4月的一份环境影响报告中,特斯拉表示,到那时为止,该公司已经减少了400万吨二氧化碳排放。最近,特斯拉在其网站上公布,目前减少的排放量已经超过了1,600万公吨。因此,在过去的两年里,特斯拉估计它的排放量减少了大约1,200万公吨,即每年600万公吨。因此,我们将把2020年实现的减排目标定为两年总减排目标的一半,即6公吨。

结论就是:在特斯拉资产负债表上产生的近4万枚比特币的排放量,相当于其汽车避免污染大气排放的4%。2020年,特斯拉交付了18.1万辆汽车。你可能会说,它与比特币的姻亲关系抹去了7,000多辆电动汽车的环保效益。德•弗里斯称,如果买家在48个月内用比特币购买一辆特斯拉,比特币交易的碳排放将超过驾驶电动汽车所节省的碳排放量。

当然,我们不知道马斯克是否会继续为特斯拉的金库购买比特币,还是继续接受比特币购买其S、X、Y和3等车型。但马斯克购买或持有的每一枚比特币都是通过向空气中排放温室气体开采出来的。其金库里的每一枚硬币都在破坏特斯拉作为终极绿色捍卫者的形象。难怪一说到比特币,埃隆•马斯克不知道自己“是离开还是留下”。(财富中文网)

编译:陈聪聪

In the 1942 film "The Man Who Came to Dinner," legendary comedian Jimmy Durante tickled wartime moviegoers in a madcap number called "Did You Ever Have the Feeling That You Wanted to Stay.'" Jimmy's seated at the piano, and the musical twist is that he doesn't know if he's coming or going. The bantam funnyman keeps bouncing to his feet and donning his stetson as if to leave, then sitting back down shedding the hat like he's staying. While doing his yo-yo routine, he's thumping the keys and trilling, "Did you ever have the feelin' that you wanted to go, but still have the feelin' that you wanted to stay. Go or stay, stay or go, start to go again and change your mind again!"

Elon Musk's up and down attitude towards Bitcoin echoes Jimmy's "did you ever have the feelin'" predicament. The Tesla CEO famously bought $1.5 billion in the signature cryptocurrency early this year, igniting a giant rally, then backtracked in May by tweeting that Tesla would no longer accept Bitcoin as payment for its EVs due to its extensive carbon footprint, sparking a selloff. Then, it seemed that Musk might be abandoning Bitcoin in early June, when he issued a meme about a couple breaking up––sporting a Bitcoin hashtag and broken heart emoji. Two weeks later, the auto industry's premier showman appeared to shelve his stetson and sit back down at the keyboard by tweeting that Tesla would resume accepting Bitcoin "When there's confirmation of reasonable (around 50%) clean energy usage by miners."

Now, a new report is chronicling how the carbon used to mine Tesla's Bitcoin is negating a significant part of the emissions saved by its EVs. It provides numbers documenting that Tesla' green goals and enthusiasm for Bitcoin contradict one another. Its findings should give Musk good reason to get the feelin' to go.

The study is titled "The True Costs of Digital Currencies: Exploring Impact Beyond Energy Use," published in the Elsevier journal One Earth. The authors are economist Alex de Vries of the central bank of the Netherlands, who also runs the site Digiconomist that tracks Bitcoin's energy footprint, Ulrich Gallersdorfer and Christian Stoll of the University of Munich, and Lena Klaassen of MIT. The report offers a broad view of Bitcoin's shortcomings in all three categories of ESG, energy, social impact, and governance. But I'll focus on how the authors, for the first time, quantify the share of Bitcoin's emissions attributable to Tesla's holdings.

They note that Bitcoin mining consumes almost as much energy as all the the world's data centers combined, and produces CO2 emissions that match the carbon footprint for the city of London. The paper estimates that Bitcoin generates 90.2 million metric tons of carbon gases per year. That volume exceeds by almost two times the total annual reductions achieved by the replacement of gasoline-burning cars by electric vehicles, as calculated by the International Energy Agency.

To arrive at Tesla's "share" of Bitcoin's emissions, the authors adapt the Greenhouse Gas (GGH) Protocol that determines the portion of a company's carbon footprint attributable to its equity investments in other enterprisesthat emit hydrocarbons. Say company A is a passive investor in company B and has no power to determine B's energy policies. If A owns 20% of B, the GGH system simply allocates one-fifth of B's carbon footprint to A. Obviously, Bitcoin isn't a company, but for Tesla, it's clearly an investment. Hence, it makes sense to allot Tesla the proportion of Bitcoin's carbon emissions that matches its ownership share in all Bitcoin.

The authors reckon that Tesla acquired 43,345 coins during its big buy at the start of 2021, and still holds 39,092, following the famous sale of 10% of their stash later in Q1. (My own estimate of their current haul is a bit higher at around 41,000). Miners have minted almost 19 million Bitcoin, but around 20% of the coins have been lost. So of the roughly 15 million in circulation, Tesla owns about 0.26%. Its "share" of Bitcoin's annual carbon emissions is one-quarter-of-one-percent of that 90.2 million Mt., or 0.24 million Mt.

So how does that number compare with the emissions that Tesla claims its EVs are saving each year? Tesla doesn't report the numbers by year, but does provide other data that point to an estimate. I arrived at the following approximation with the assistance of co-author de Vries. In an environmental impact report from April of 2019, Tesla stated that it had saved 4 million metric tons (Mt.) of CO2 over its history through that date. It recently posted on its website that the current number's risen to over 16 million Mt. Hence, over the past two years, Tesla reckons that it's reduced emissions by a total of around more than 12 million Mt., or 6 million Mt. annually. So we'll put the reduction in achieved in 2020 at half the two-year total or 6 Mt.

Conclusion: The emissions that produced the almost 40,000 coins on Tesla's balance sheet equaled about 4% of the gases that its cars kept from polluting the atmosphere. In 2020, Tesla delivered 181,000 vehicles. You could argue that its romance with Bitcoin erased the environmental benefits from more than 7,000 of those EVs. De Vries says that if a buyer purchases a Tesla by making payments over 48 months in Bitcoin, the carbon footprint of the Bitcoin transactions would exceed the total lifetime emissions savings from driving an EV instead of a gasoline-powered car.

Of course, we don't know if Musk will keep buying Bitcoin for Tesla's treasury, or resume accepting coins for its Models S, X, Y, and 3. But every coin that Musk buys or collects was mined by putting gases in the air that Tesla's EVs are taking out. Every coin in its treasury undermines its image as the ultimate green champion. No wonder that when it comes to Bitcoin, Elon Musk doesn't know if he's coming or going.

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