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逃过灭顶之灾,实现逆袭增长,这家公司开挂了?

Shawn Tully
2021-06-25

危机也是机遇。

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当时,美国西南航空公司的首席执行官加里•凯利眼前一片模糊。去年4月摆在他面前的调查数据惨到难以言喻,而且无法预测新冠疫情意味着暂时下跌还是缓慢衰退。

“每周财务团队发给我业务数据时,通常都会提供一些偏乐观的评论。”他告诉《财富》杂志。

但2020年4月5日这一周报告的“色调”让人异常难过。“我从未遇到财务人员发出如此悲伤的信息。报告中说:‘损失已经无法用语言来描述。我们如何才能够复苏?’”

看到2019年航空流量下降97%,而当周现金消耗达2亿美元,凯利不禁产生了同样的疑问。他回忆说,美国世贸中心袭击事件发生后几天里,自己曾经作为首席财务官向赫伯•凯莱赫呈送过同样灾难性的数据,凯莱赫是这家廉价航空公司传奇的联合创始人,也是他的导师。

然而,几个月后,西南航空便恢复了稳定盈利。

凯利的任期已经达到17年,也成为美国大型航空公司当中任职时间最长的首席执行官,这一次,他却猜不出神秘的病毒会让美国旅行者停飞多久。新冠病毒可能不像“9•11”一样短暂迅速地冲击市场,更可能是持久的瘟疫,对商业航空公司的打击比其他大企业都要严重。

事情确是如此。他说:“‘9•11’事件很可怕,但我们很快就恢复了,而新冠病毒的冲击更具破坏性,因为好转的期盼一次次落空,疫情仍然在持续。”

2020年12月,西南航空的董事长兼首席执行官加里•凯利乘坐波音737 Max从菲尼克斯飞往达拉斯。凯利的任期已经达到17年,也成为美国大型航空公司当中任职时间最长的首席执行官。图片来源:Courtesy of Stephen M. Keller/Southwest

人们可能认为,为了挺过现代航空史上最严重的灾难,也是一场凶猛而且持续时间完全不可预测的风暴,凯利会启动削减成本的策略开展防御,要么就是静候观察。

其实在疫情之前,由于西南航空扩张业务依赖的波音737 Max停飞,公司就已经陷入了危机。为了止血,凯利确实大幅削减了开支。但同时,他也表现出远见和智慧,为实现发展制定了雄心勃勃的飞行计划。

随着竞争对手接连退出,西南航空却新进驻了至少17家机场,包括芝加哥奥黑尔机场、迈阿密国际机场和休斯顿洲际机场等重要枢纽。从萨拉索塔到科罗拉多斯普林斯再到棕榈泉,西南航空也借此将十多个度假目的地加入航线网络,这些地方都很重要,因为引领航空飞行复苏的是度假探险,而不是商务旅行。

简而言之,凯利抓住了原定需要五年或更长时间的计划,利用疫情快速推进行动。

种种措施也包括将闲置飞机停在沙漠机场,以及将因为疫情停飞而公司仍然在支付薪酬的机组人员派往新航线,为西南航空带来了急需的收入,也让他取得了巨大成功。

危机之前,西南航空甚至不敢奢望进驻奥黑尔机场。但当对手撤退空出宝贵的位置时,凯利立刻补上。

“数十年来,西南航空之所以一直可以在危机期间扩张,主要是因为成本低,危机过后会更加壮大。”行业专家罗伯特•曼恩表示。“但在疫情期间,西南航空比起惯常做法更像是饕餮。这一次,他们充分利用了千载难逢的机会。”

50岁

就在6月18日西南航空准备庆祝成立50周年之际,该公司也在最严重的衰退中实现了有史以来规模最大的扩张。

1971年的同一天,美国第一家低成本航空公司开通了达拉斯、休斯顿和圣安东尼奥之间的航线,至于运营模式,正如同联合创始人罗林•金在一家酒店酒吧里为凯莱赫画出的三座城市连接线。

当美国人再次排队抢购机票时,西南航空也将开启下半个世纪的发展之际,比起疫情之前,其地位可能将超越美国航空、美国联合航空和达美航空。

西南航空的联合创始人罗林•金在一家酒店酒吧里画出连接得克萨斯州三座城市的线。图片来源:Courtesy of Southwest

西南航空的优势主要源于两大因素:疫情期间精心策划的抢地盘,以及强健的财务实力。

在各大航空公司中,西南航空持有现金最多,负债最低。正因为财务是如此的健康,公司才能够在未来数月和数年大幅扩大机队,提供更多座位,在市场增长中占据巨大份额,并在前景大好的市场中吸引竞争对手的客户。

12月,美国联邦航空管理局批准波音737 Max复飞,到3月时,西南航空的Max机队已经恢复服务。当月,西南航空购买了一大批新型超级节油飞机,为将来大发展铺好了跑道。

1974年1月,西南航空的联合创始人罗林•金和总裁拉马尔•缪斯监督转移到拉夫菲尔德机场。图片来源:Courtesy of Southwest

凯利曾经两度接受《财富》杂志的深入采访,介绍了西南航空应对疫情的策略。

他说:“成立了50年,总会在危机中挣扎几次,应对之法要么彰显理念,要么撇清不认同的观点。我们仍然是美国顶级的廉价航空公司,仍然是空中民主的领先践行者。在走出危机后,我们将从竞争对手的手里争夺大量市场份额。”

20世纪70年代,穿着热裤的西南航空空姐。图片来源:Courtesy of Southwest

目前,西南航空的财务状况已经有巨大改善:去年此时,营业收入较2019年缩水达四分之三,而估计今年6月营业收入仅下降20%,可能有助于现金流平衡,说明很快就可以实现正向现金流。

值得注意的是,凯利告诉《财富》杂志,至少在季度收入方面,“并未放弃”明年某个时候达到西南航空有史以来最高。这是其他大公司很难追上的纪录,甚至连预测的勇气都没有。

空飞机

由于业绩大幅下降,而且疫情已经将航空旅行拖回20世纪70年代的水平,真要实现大规模复苏,则堪称英雄之举。

去年第二季度,西南航空的客运收入从55亿美元下降到7亿美元,跌幅87%,损失达惊人的11亿美元。“收入几乎少了个零。”公司的执行副总裁鲍勃•乔丹表示。

在去年余下的时间里,情况只能够说略有改善。截至第四季度,机票销售仍然比2019年低了近69%。全年西南航空付费旅客的总飞行里程下降了60%,平均而言,波音737-700s和800s的飞机客座率只有一半。

亏损导致西南航空负债从2019年年底的18.5亿美元增加到第一季度的105.5亿美元。靠着美国财政部提供的54亿美元工资支持计划拨款,再加上贷款,亏损才没有大幅上升。西南航空欠工资支持计划的15.4亿美元债务利率极低。

尽管亏损数字很大,但西南航空的资产负债表在各大航空公司中仍属最佳。达美航空(274亿美元)和美国联合航空(298亿美元)的负债都是西南航空的2.5倍还多,而美国航空的负债为西南航空的三倍,达到325亿美元。

堪萨斯城国际机场,西南航空的一位空姐在为飞机起飞做准备。图片来源:Charlie Riedel—AP Images

资深空乘克莱顿•怀特清楚地记得在这一年里,美国各种“空中飞人”和度假者是如何大幅减少的。

“最多可以乘坐143人和175人的737-700和800型飞机里,经常只有四五位乘客。”怀特接受《财富》杂志采访时说。“‘最繁忙’的航线经常只有40位客人预订,最后只有16人登机。有一次在芝加哥飞往休斯顿的航班上,有四人购票却无人出现。不管怎样我们都得飞,这样飞机才能够继续返程航班。”

从洛杉矶到火奴鲁鲁长达2400英里的长途飞行中,经常只有十几名乘客。

怀特回忆起有一次从圣迭戈飞往巴尔的摩,客舱里只有一位乘客,是前往华盛顿特区治疗新冠肺炎患者的医生。

“我们不得不载着那位医生继续飞,而且还要运送医疗用品。”他说。气氛就像灾难片。

“到了春天,走遍西南航空最繁忙的枢纽之一芝加哥中途机场,也只有15个人。”怀特说,“抵达达拉斯之类的维修机场时,可以看到窗外停着几十架飞机。”在飞越加州莫哈韦沙漠的维克多维尔机场时,乘客们会发现地上停着一片西南航空的飞机,标志性涂装组成了红色、黄色和蓝色的海洋。

凯利让停机坪上闲置的飞机重新投入工作,为危机之后迅速发展奠定基础。

在最严重的经济衰退中实现增长

疫情爆发五年前,原本只在美国国内运营的西南航空做出了重大调整,在其主要增长地加勒比海和拉丁美洲的基础上,增加了墨西哥的坎昆、哥斯达黎加的圣何塞,还有巴哈马的拿骚等20个目的地的航班。

2019年,西南航空制定了新策略,增加西海岸到火奴鲁鲁和通往夏威夷其他四座机场的航线,首先完成“水上网络”的最后一段。之后,凯利计划开通新目的地,在美国发动长线进攻。

西南航空列出了50家美国机场,希望进驻服务。当时,西南航空只计划在2021年年初增加休斯顿洲际机场,庆祝公司成立50周年纪念,因为刚开始西南航空曾经在该机场运营,后来搬到规模较小的威廉•佩特斯•霍比机场。

“2019年,公司迎来了非常强劲的增长机会。”首席财务官塔米•罗莫说,“希望增加网络密集度,连接更多地方。我们计划增加成百上千架飞机。”

根据公司蓝图,每年要新增三到四个目的地。计划中也包括第二条战线,在西南航空已经很强大的市场上通过增加航班来吸引更多的乘客,从而提供推动力。

“在丹佛、奥斯汀、休斯顿、劳德代尔堡、纳什维尔和很多城市里,乘客的需求超过了公司的供应能力。”凯利说,“从2020年到2024年,我们计划开展为期五年的大规模增长。”

然而民航界接连出现两起严重悲剧,造成的冲击导致西南航空顿时缺了冲锋所需的战马。2019年3月13日,印尼狮航和埃塞俄比亚航空公司发生坠机事故,造成346名乘客死亡,美国联邦航空管理局宣布波音737 Max停飞。

当年西南航空正运营34架Max,还新订购了26架,这意味着2019年的飞机总量比预期少了近10%。西南航空并没有多余的飞机,因为老旧的波音737-300有67架为了给Max让路已经退役。

尽管不能启用Max飞机,西南航空还是履行了2019年和2020年年初为火奴鲁鲁和夏威夷其他目的地提供服务的承诺,造成短缺情况愈加恶化。

“公司增长计划因为Max停飞而受阻。”西南航空的首席商务官安德鲁•沃特森说道。

但疫情开辟了意想不到的新赛道。凯利估计,通过部署原本闲置的飞机,还有飞行次数比以前少很多的机组人员,西南航空为新地方提供服务的收入可能会高于增加航班的额外成本,主要包括飞机燃油和机场费。

“这是帮助填补庞大且无法削减的固定成本的好方法。”凯利说。沃特森补充道:“我们一直在寻找让员工有事情做,又可以减少现金消耗的方法。”

另外,随着竞争对手纷纷撤退,这家领先的廉价航空公司终于迎来了进驻繁忙大机场的好机会。凯利认为,一旦疫情消退,西南航空的策略就能够与市场的趋势相吻合。

在公司希望增加的50个目的地中,绝大部分是较小的海滩或山地度假地。到目前为止,危机中受影响最大的是商务旅行,凯利跟行业内的其他领袖都清楚地发现,度假者大批增加可以引领航旅反弹,而商务人群要想恢复原来的数量还需要数年时间。

因此凯利预测,从规模上来看,休闲目的地带来的新乘客远多于商务乘客。

尽管大多数市场都很小,但凯利认为,快速增加大量市场能够推动西南航空的扩张速度超过原计划。在之前的计划中,西南航空希望每年增加两个新机场,实现缓慢而谨慎地扩张。

从11月中旬开始,西南航空向科罗拉多州的斯廷博特斯普林斯、特莱瑞德和科罗拉多泉;加州的弗雷斯诺、圣巴巴拉和棕榈泉;佛罗里达州的萨拉索塔/布拉登顿和德斯廷/沃尔顿堡海滩;萨凡纳/希尔顿海德,以及其他8处新增旅游目的地提供服务。在这些优质度假市场,公司目标是吸引全新客户。

“寻找休闲客户时,最合适的就是小地方。”沃特森说,“对小地方来说,西南航空开通航线是一件大事情。比起进驻大机场,在弗雷斯诺和科罗拉多泉等地可以获得更多的新闻报道和讨论。”

2020年11月,西南航空开始在棕榈泉国际机场(Palm Springs International Airport)提供服务。图片来源:USA TODAY NETWORK/Reuters

公司领导将目标放在了此前门槛较高的机场上。

在芝加哥,长期以来,西南航空一直是中途机场的主要航空公司。但中途机场占地仅为1平方英里多,目前已经满负荷运行,导致西南航空无法增加航班将“风城”芝加哥乘客送往更多的城市。

在疫情之前,庞大的奥黑尔机场根本不是西南航空的目标。因为美国联邦航空管理局已然冻结了奥黑尔着陆和起飞的“空位”或次数,西南航空无法染指,也没有机会挑战占该机场流量近80%的两家航空公司:美联航和美国航空。

但芝加哥市控制了奥黑尔的一些登机口,认为如果有登机口大部分闲置就能够提供给别家航空公司。过去由于机场起降非常繁忙,当然并未发生过。

但在疫情中,奥黑尔机场的航空公司航班流量仅为正常情况下的约三分之一。机场流量的大跌帮助西南航空实现了一直渴望的梦想,终于在全美第三繁忙的机场获得了登机口。

沃特森说:“我们一直以为不可能进入奥黑尔,所以没有为去那里开展服务制定计划。”

现在,每天西南航空提供20架直飞达拉斯、丹佛、纳什维尔、菲尼克斯和巴尔的摩/华盛顿的航班。很多住在靠北,离奥黑尔机场不远的人们之所以之前不选西南航空,主要是因为不喜欢大老远前往南边的中途机场。

如今,人们第一次可以从附近的奥黑尔机场乘坐最大廉价航空的飞机出行。

在迈阿密,西南航空的另一突破也要感谢疫情危机。公司在劳德代尔堡有个繁忙的枢纽,但在规模大得多的迈阿密国际机场却没有航班。问题在于,迈阿密机场对每位乘客收取的费用相当高,向来是劳德代尔堡的数倍。

凯利认为迈阿密机场很有吸引力,但并不急着进驻。“费用上的差异导致西南航空之类的低成本航空公司很难经营。”曼恩说。

但如今,机场指望新进入者帮忙覆盖成本。因此,迈阿密国际机场向航班频密的航空公司收取统一月费。这一变化大大降低了西南航空的总体成本,与劳德代尔堡的差距缩小。突然间,迈阿密的新收费方式提升了对廉价航空公司的吸引力。

凯利再次抓住了机会。“迈阿密像火箭一样起飞。”他说。

西南航空的很多常旅客都来自纽约拉瓜迪亚和中途机场等枢纽,前往迈阿密度假或做生意,但之前没法选择最喜欢的航空公司,也不希望从劳德代尔堡机场出发向南后在95号州际公路遇上堵车。

“事实证明,对我们的乘客来说,离开机场后的那段路比预期中的要麻烦得多。”沃特森说,“如果能够直接飞迈阿密国际机场,就能防止芝加哥或东北部的乘客转投其他航空公司。”

在疫情之前,西南航空服务的市场每年机票总销售额为630亿美元。进入复苏期后,西南航空新进驻的机场销售额可以达到130亿美元,比沃特森提到“能够钓鱼的池塘”高出20%。

凯利预测,到2022年,休闲旅客激增将大大抵消商务旅客减少,西南航空可领先大型竞争对手恢复到2019年的水平。

保持无裁员、无降薪纪录

疫情期间,西南航空不仅是唯一大举扩张的大航空公司,也是唯一未实施大规模裁员和降薪的公司。

事实上,西南航空既没有裁员,也没有降薪。相比之下,全球航空业裁员40万人,仅美国就解雇了3.2万人。西南航空以从未强制休假或削减工资而自豪。

凯利告诉《财富》杂志,危机中最令人痛苦的部分是可能要伤害员工。凯利说:“我很同意赫伯•凯莱赫在‘9•11’事件期间说的话,我不能够保证不裁员,但可以保证不到最后关头绝不考虑。”

然而,西南航空仍旧在长时间消耗大量现金,在成立50周年纪念即将到来之际几乎挺不住要裁员。

“如果撑不住公司,就无法关心员工。”凯利说,“我只想尽全力让人们安居乐业,让血液保持流动,这样就有足够的人手加速复苏,创造更多的就业机会。”

凯利的第一步是降低非劳动成本。他限制了科技投资和机场扩建等资本支出。随着航班减少,燃油、机油和着陆费等“可变”成本急剧下降。

“很多运营费用都随着客户数量下降而收缩。”他说。总体而言,西南航空削减了凯利称之为“硬邦邦钞票”的80亿美元支出。这一举措将综合运营费用和资本支出较2019年下降了40%。

然而,航空公司几乎是插着翅膀的资本。

西南航空不得不继续为750架波音737飞机买单,飞机都停在维克多维尔等维修中心。当然,到目前为止,其最大的成本还是工资、薪酬和福利,这在2019年占运营成本的43%。如果西南航空想生存,庞大的一块必须大幅收缩。

公司的目标是通过自愿项目确保大幅降低成本,让尽可能多的员工有正式工作,如果情况好转,则随时回归。

2020年4月,西南航空为空乘、飞行员、维修工人、带薪员工和其他群体提供三种选择。第一种被称为自愿离职或VSP。提前退休方案包括现金买断加上慷慨的健康和旅行福利。第二种是延长休假或ETO,员工可以选择暂停工作6个月、12个月或18个月,工资减半。第三项计划允许员工短时间休假,几小时、一天、一周或一个月,工资也减半。

2020年4月,西南航空为空乘、飞行员、维修工人、带薪员工和其他群体提供三种自愿选择,让尽可能多的员工有正式工作,如果情况好转,则随时回归。图片来源:Courtesy of Stephen M. Keller/Southwest

西南航空的6万名员工中有三分之一选择了其中一项。4500人离职,4000至5000人选择弹性工作制,14500人选择延长休假时间,通常是为了照顾在家上学的孩子。带薪员工则转岗。

“公司有100名员工从事其他工作,比如维护保养记录。”乔丹说。

尽管如此,到了10月,显然危机已经拖太久,西南航空从《关怀法案》的工资支持计划获得的援助并不够,如果政府不加大援助力度就无法阻止裁员降薪。

10月15日,危机期间凯利共面向员工进行了71次在线广播,这次他宣布:“工资支持计划可以保证在9月30日之前不降薪或强制休假,但力度不够大,撑得不够长……现在要采取必要措施拯救西南航空了。”

即使在自愿项目生效后,西南航空仍然人员太多。凯利提出的应急计划对非工会员工(主要是办公室员工)全面减薪10%,但没有裁员。对于“合同工”或工会员工,西南航空要求各团体2021年在2019年成本基础上降低10%。可以通过多种途径实现目标,例如裁员、降薪、提高生产率,或者三管齐下。工会合同要求,如果空乘、飞行员和其他团体未能提出达到10%目标的计划,西南航空裁员应该提前通知。

“去年年底,17000名空乘大约有1500人收到了‘休假’信,我一些同事也在其中。”怀特说,“他们在西南航空从未经历过这些。”如果工会不介入,员工将减少6000人,或超过10%。

但去年12月,凯利与美国财政部达成了额外援助的协议。这笔救命钱帮助西南航空避免了历史上的第一次裁员和减薪,此时距离成立50周年还有6个月。如今,每10名休假的员工中有9人重返全职工作岗位。

凯利认为,拥有随时准备投入并不断壮大的完整员工队伍,对充分利用人力进军17个新市场至关重要,随着锡拉丘兹的加入,新目标很快将增至18个。

“暂停计划最棒的一点就在于能够迅速运行起来。”乔丹说。

为快速发展组建机队

如今,西南航空提出了大型航空公司里最激进的机队扩张项目,从而支持其增长计划。

目前,机队中以老旧的波音737-700飞机为主,平均机龄12年。波音还有200多架更大的737-800飞机,机龄年轻得多,还可以服役多年。西南航空打算用两款Max机型取代即将退役的700,一款是175座的Max 8,另一款是143座的小型Max 7。

与波音老款相比,Max燃油消耗减少了14%,噪音降低了40%。今年3月,西南航空自Max复飞以来进行了最大一笔采购,固定订单增加了100架飞机。6月7日,西南航空表示因为反弹比预期快,再次追加了34架Max飞机。

两项交易中还为西南航空提供了额外187架Max飞机的采购权。所以在2021年上半年,西南航空的Max 7和Max 8的订单加上采购权已经多出一倍,机队扩大到660架飞机,赌的就是未来快速增长。

如果西南航空行使全部采购权,增长符合凯利预期的可能性非常大,那么西南航空很有可能在10年内运营近1100架飞机的机队,运力增加50%。

凯利拓展西南航空业务的模式很大程度上是靠危机。不过他总是回到人的因素,认为公司最看重的资产还是人。

10月15日,凯利警告即将到来的牺牲时曾经缓缓低声说:“我们都认为西南航空是毕生事业。当员工50年后回顾今日,他们会说:‘当初的前辈拯救了西南航空,拯救了西南航空的工作,那是西南航空最美好的时刻。’”

凯利跟他的偶像凯莱赫一样,都很有演艺天赋。但丘吉尔式的狂热背后是坚实的计划,西南航空一直最擅长的走出危机大戏将再次上演。

当竞争对手还在停机坪上轰鸣之际,西南航空已经一飞冲天。(财富中文网)

译者:梁宇

审校:夏林

当时,美国西南航空公司的首席执行官加里•凯利眼前一片模糊。去年4月摆在他面前的调查数据惨到难以言喻,而且无法预测新冠疫情意味着暂时下跌还是缓慢衰退。

“每周财务团队发给我业务数据时,通常都会提供一些偏乐观的评论。”他告诉《财富》杂志。

但2020年4月5日这一周报告的“色调”让人异常难过。“我从未遇到财务人员发出如此悲伤的信息。报告中说:‘损失已经无法用语言来描述。我们如何才能够复苏?’”

看到2019年航空流量下降97%,而当周现金消耗达2亿美元,凯利不禁产生了同样的疑问。他回忆说,美国世贸中心袭击事件发生后几天里,自己曾经作为首席财务官向赫伯•凯莱赫呈送过同样灾难性的数据,凯莱赫是这家廉价航空公司传奇的联合创始人,也是他的导师。

然而,几个月后,西南航空便恢复了稳定盈利。

凯利的任期已经达到17年,也成为美国大型航空公司当中任职时间最长的首席执行官,这一次,他却猜不出神秘的病毒会让美国旅行者停飞多久。新冠病毒可能不像“9•11”一样短暂迅速地冲击市场,更可能是持久的瘟疫,对商业航空公司的打击比其他大企业都要严重。

事情确是如此。他说:“‘9•11’事件很可怕,但我们很快就恢复了,而新冠病毒的冲击更具破坏性,因为好转的期盼一次次落空,疫情仍然在持续。”

人们可能认为,为了挺过现代航空史上最严重的灾难,也是一场凶猛而且持续时间完全不可预测的风暴,凯利会启动削减成本的策略开展防御,要么就是静候观察。

其实在疫情之前,由于西南航空扩张业务依赖的波音737 Max停飞,公司就已经陷入了危机。为了止血,凯利确实大幅削减了开支。但同时,他也表现出远见和智慧,为实现发展制定了雄心勃勃的飞行计划。

随着竞争对手接连退出,西南航空却新进驻了至少17家机场,包括芝加哥奥黑尔机场、迈阿密国际机场和休斯顿洲际机场等重要枢纽。从萨拉索塔到科罗拉多斯普林斯再到棕榈泉,西南航空也借此将十多个度假目的地加入航线网络,这些地方都很重要,因为引领航空飞行复苏的是度假探险,而不是商务旅行。

简而言之,凯利抓住了原定需要五年或更长时间的计划,利用疫情快速推进行动。

种种措施也包括将闲置飞机停在沙漠机场,以及将因为疫情停飞而公司仍然在支付薪酬的机组人员派往新航线,为西南航空带来了急需的收入,也让他取得了巨大成功。

危机之前,西南航空甚至不敢奢望进驻奥黑尔机场。但当对手撤退空出宝贵的位置时,凯利立刻补上。

“数十年来,西南航空之所以一直可以在危机期间扩张,主要是因为成本低,危机过后会更加壮大。”行业专家罗伯特•曼恩表示。“但在疫情期间,西南航空比起惯常做法更像是饕餮。这一次,他们充分利用了千载难逢的机会。”

50岁

就在6月18日西南航空准备庆祝成立50周年之际,该公司也在最严重的衰退中实现了有史以来规模最大的扩张。

1971年的同一天,美国第一家低成本航空公司开通了达拉斯、休斯顿和圣安东尼奥之间的航线,至于运营模式,正如同联合创始人罗林•金在一家酒店酒吧里为凯莱赫画出的三座城市连接线。

当美国人再次排队抢购机票时,西南航空也将开启下半个世纪的发展之际,比起疫情之前,其地位可能将超越美国航空、美国联合航空和达美航空。

西南航空的优势主要源于两大因素:疫情期间精心策划的抢地盘,以及强健的财务实力。

在各大航空公司中,西南航空持有现金最多,负债最低。正因为财务是如此的健康,公司才能够在未来数月和数年大幅扩大机队,提供更多座位,在市场增长中占据巨大份额,并在前景大好的市场中吸引竞争对手的客户。

12月,美国联邦航空管理局批准波音737 Max复飞,到3月时,西南航空的Max机队已经恢复服务。当月,西南航空购买了一大批新型超级节油飞机,为将来大发展铺好了跑道。

凯利曾经两度接受《财富》杂志的深入采访,介绍了西南航空应对疫情的策略。

他说:“成立了50年,总会在危机中挣扎几次,应对之法要么彰显理念,要么撇清不认同的观点。我们仍然是美国顶级的廉价航空公司,仍然是空中民主的领先践行者。在走出危机后,我们将从竞争对手的手里争夺大量市场份额。”

目前,西南航空的财务状况已经有巨大改善:去年此时,营业收入较2019年缩水达四分之三,而估计今年6月营业收入仅下降20%,可能有助于现金流平衡,说明很快就可以实现正向现金流。

值得注意的是,凯利告诉《财富》杂志,至少在季度收入方面,“并未放弃”明年某个时候达到西南航空有史以来最高。这是其他大公司很难追上的纪录,甚至连预测的勇气都没有。

空飞机

由于业绩大幅下降,而且疫情已经将航空旅行拖回20世纪70年代的水平,真要实现大规模复苏,则堪称英雄之举。

去年第二季度,西南航空的客运收入从55亿美元下降到7亿美元,跌幅87%,损失达惊人的11亿美元。“收入几乎少了个零。”公司的执行副总裁鲍勃•乔丹表示。

在去年余下的时间里,情况只能够说略有改善。截至第四季度,机票销售仍然比2019年低了近69%。全年西南航空付费旅客的总飞行里程下降了60%,平均而言,波音737-700s和800s的飞机客座率只有一半。

亏损导致西南航空负债从2019年年底的18.5亿美元增加到第一季度的105.5亿美元。靠着美国财政部提供的54亿美元工资支持计划拨款,再加上贷款,亏损才没有大幅上升。西南航空欠工资支持计划的15.4亿美元债务利率极低。

尽管亏损数字很大,但西南航空的资产负债表在各大航空公司中仍属最佳。达美航空(274亿美元)和美国联合航空(298亿美元)的负债都是西南航空的2.5倍还多,而美国航空的负债为西南航空的三倍,达到325亿美元。

资深空乘克莱顿•怀特清楚地记得在这一年里,美国各种“空中飞人”和度假者是如何大幅减少的。

“最多可以乘坐143人和175人的737-700和800型飞机里,经常只有四五位乘客。”怀特接受《财富》杂志采访时说。“‘最繁忙’的航线经常只有40位客人预订,最后只有16人登机。有一次在芝加哥飞往休斯顿的航班上,有四人购票却无人出现。不管怎样我们都得飞,这样飞机才能够继续返程航班。”

从洛杉矶到火奴鲁鲁长达2400英里的长途飞行中,经常只有十几名乘客。

怀特回忆起有一次从圣迭戈飞往巴尔的摩,客舱里只有一位乘客,是前往华盛顿特区治疗新冠肺炎患者的医生。

“我们不得不载着那位医生继续飞,而且还要运送医疗用品。”他说。气氛就像灾难片。

“到了春天,走遍西南航空最繁忙的枢纽之一芝加哥中途机场,也只有15个人。”怀特说,“抵达达拉斯之类的维修机场时,可以看到窗外停着几十架飞机。”在飞越加州莫哈韦沙漠的维克多维尔机场时,乘客们会发现地上停着一片西南航空的飞机,标志性涂装组成了红色、黄色和蓝色的海洋。

凯利让停机坪上闲置的飞机重新投入工作,为危机之后迅速发展奠定基础。

在最严重的经济衰退中实现增长

疫情爆发五年前,原本只在美国国内运营的西南航空做出了重大调整,在其主要增长地加勒比海和拉丁美洲的基础上,增加了墨西哥的坎昆、哥斯达黎加的圣何塞,还有巴哈马的拿骚等20个目的地的航班。

2019年,西南航空制定了新策略,增加西海岸到火奴鲁鲁和通往夏威夷其他四座机场的航线,首先完成“水上网络”的最后一段。之后,凯利计划开通新目的地,在美国发动长线进攻。

西南航空列出了50家美国机场,希望进驻服务。当时,西南航空只计划在2021年年初增加休斯顿洲际机场,庆祝公司成立50周年纪念,因为刚开始西南航空曾经在该机场运营,后来搬到规模较小的威廉•佩特斯•霍比机场。

“2019年,公司迎来了非常强劲的增长机会。”首席财务官塔米•罗莫说,“希望增加网络密集度,连接更多地方。我们计划增加成百上千架飞机。”

根据公司蓝图,每年要新增三到四个目的地。计划中也包括第二条战线,在西南航空已经很强大的市场上通过增加航班来吸引更多的乘客,从而提供推动力。

“在丹佛、奥斯汀、休斯顿、劳德代尔堡、纳什维尔和很多城市里,乘客的需求超过了公司的供应能力。”凯利说,“从2020年到2024年,我们计划开展为期五年的大规模增长。”

然而民航界接连出现两起严重悲剧,造成的冲击导致西南航空顿时缺了冲锋所需的战马。2019年3月13日,印尼狮航和埃塞俄比亚航空公司发生坠机事故,造成346名乘客死亡,美国联邦航空管理局宣布波音737 Max停飞。

当年西南航空正运营34架Max,还新订购了26架,这意味着2019年的飞机总量比预期少了近10%。西南航空并没有多余的飞机,因为老旧的波音737-300有67架为了给Max让路已经退役。

尽管不能启用Max飞机,西南航空还是履行了2019年和2020年年初为火奴鲁鲁和夏威夷其他目的地提供服务的承诺,造成短缺情况愈加恶化。

“公司增长计划因为Max停飞而受阻。”西南航空的首席商务官安德鲁•沃特森说道。

但疫情开辟了意想不到的新赛道。凯利估计,通过部署原本闲置的飞机,还有飞行次数比以前少很多的机组人员,西南航空为新地方提供服务的收入可能会高于增加航班的额外成本,主要包括飞机燃油和机场费。

“这是帮助填补庞大且无法削减的固定成本的好方法。”凯利说。沃特森补充道:“我们一直在寻找让员工有事情做,又可以减少现金消耗的方法。”

另外,随着竞争对手纷纷撤退,这家领先的廉价航空公司终于迎来了进驻繁忙大机场的好机会。凯利认为,一旦疫情消退,西南航空的策略就能够与市场的趋势相吻合。

在公司希望增加的50个目的地中,绝大部分是较小的海滩或山地度假地。到目前为止,危机中受影响最大的是商务旅行,凯利跟行业内的其他领袖都清楚地发现,度假者大批增加可以引领航旅反弹,而商务人群要想恢复原来的数量还需要数年时间。

因此凯利预测,从规模上来看,休闲目的地带来的新乘客远多于商务乘客。

尽管大多数市场都很小,但凯利认为,快速增加大量市场能够推动西南航空的扩张速度超过原计划。在之前的计划中,西南航空希望每年增加两个新机场,实现缓慢而谨慎地扩张。

从11月中旬开始,西南航空向科罗拉多州的斯廷博特斯普林斯、特莱瑞德和科罗拉多泉;加州的弗雷斯诺、圣巴巴拉和棕榈泉;佛罗里达州的萨拉索塔/布拉登顿和德斯廷/沃尔顿堡海滩;萨凡纳/希尔顿海德,以及其他8处新增旅游目的地提供服务。在这些优质度假市场,公司目标是吸引全新客户。

“寻找休闲客户时,最合适的就是小地方。”沃特森说,“对小地方来说,西南航空开通航线是一件大事情。比起进驻大机场,在弗雷斯诺和科罗拉多泉等地可以获得更多的新闻报道和讨论。”

公司领导将目标放在了此前门槛较高的机场上。

在芝加哥,长期以来,西南航空一直是中途机场的主要航空公司。但中途机场占地仅为1平方英里多,目前已经满负荷运行,导致西南航空无法增加航班将“风城”芝加哥乘客送往更多的城市。

在疫情之前,庞大的奥黑尔机场根本不是西南航空的目标。因为美国联邦航空管理局已然冻结了奥黑尔着陆和起飞的“空位”或次数,西南航空无法染指,也没有机会挑战占该机场流量近80%的两家航空公司:美联航和美国航空。

但芝加哥市控制了奥黑尔的一些登机口,认为如果有登机口大部分闲置就能够提供给别家航空公司。过去由于机场起降非常繁忙,当然并未发生过。

但在疫情中,奥黑尔机场的航空公司航班流量仅为正常情况下的约三分之一。机场流量的大跌帮助西南航空实现了一直渴望的梦想,终于在全美第三繁忙的机场获得了登机口。

沃特森说:“我们一直以为不可能进入奥黑尔,所以没有为去那里开展服务制定计划。”

现在,每天西南航空提供20架直飞达拉斯、丹佛、纳什维尔、菲尼克斯和巴尔的摩/华盛顿的航班。很多住在靠北,离奥黑尔机场不远的人们之所以之前不选西南航空,主要是因为不喜欢大老远前往南边的中途机场。

如今,人们第一次可以从附近的奥黑尔机场乘坐最大廉价航空的飞机出行。

在迈阿密,西南航空的另一突破也要感谢疫情危机。公司在劳德代尔堡有个繁忙的枢纽,但在规模大得多的迈阿密国际机场却没有航班。问题在于,迈阿密机场对每位乘客收取的费用相当高,向来是劳德代尔堡的数倍。

凯利认为迈阿密机场很有吸引力,但并不急着进驻。“费用上的差异导致西南航空之类的低成本航空公司很难经营。”曼恩说。

但如今,机场指望新进入者帮忙覆盖成本。因此,迈阿密国际机场向航班频密的航空公司收取统一月费。这一变化大大降低了西南航空的总体成本,与劳德代尔堡的差距缩小。突然间,迈阿密的新收费方式提升了对廉价航空公司的吸引力。

凯利再次抓住了机会。“迈阿密像火箭一样起飞。”他说。

西南航空的很多常旅客都来自纽约拉瓜迪亚和中途机场等枢纽,前往迈阿密度假或做生意,但之前没法选择最喜欢的航空公司,也不希望从劳德代尔堡机场出发向南后在95号州际公路遇上堵车。

“事实证明,对我们的乘客来说,离开机场后的那段路比预期中的要麻烦得多。”沃特森说,“如果能够直接飞迈阿密国际机场,就能防止芝加哥或东北部的乘客转投其他航空公司。”

在疫情之前,西南航空服务的市场每年机票总销售额为630亿美元。进入复苏期后,西南航空新进驻的机场销售额可以达到130亿美元,比沃特森提到“能够钓鱼的池塘”高出20%。

凯利预测,到2022年,休闲旅客激增将大大抵消商务旅客减少,西南航空可领先大型竞争对手恢复到2019年的水平。

保持无裁员、无降薪纪录

疫情期间,西南航空不仅是唯一大举扩张的大航空公司,也是唯一未实施大规模裁员和降薪的公司。

事实上,西南航空既没有裁员,也没有降薪。相比之下,全球航空业裁员40万人,仅美国就解雇了3.2万人。西南航空以从未强制休假或削减工资而自豪。

凯利告诉《财富》杂志,危机中最令人痛苦的部分是可能要伤害员工。凯利说:“我很同意赫伯•凯莱赫在‘9•11’事件期间说的话,我不能够保证不裁员,但可以保证不到最后关头绝不考虑。”

然而,西南航空仍旧在长时间消耗大量现金,在成立50周年纪念即将到来之际几乎挺不住要裁员。

“如果撑不住公司,就无法关心员工。”凯利说,“我只想尽全力让人们安居乐业,让血液保持流动,这样就有足够的人手加速复苏,创造更多的就业机会。”

凯利的第一步是降低非劳动成本。他限制了科技投资和机场扩建等资本支出。随着航班减少,燃油、机油和着陆费等“可变”成本急剧下降。

“很多运营费用都随着客户数量下降而收缩。”他说。总体而言,西南航空削减了凯利称之为“硬邦邦钞票”的80亿美元支出。这一举措将综合运营费用和资本支出较2019年下降了40%。

然而,航空公司几乎是插着翅膀的资本。

西南航空不得不继续为750架波音737飞机买单,飞机都停在维克多维尔等维修中心。当然,到目前为止,其最大的成本还是工资、薪酬和福利,这在2019年占运营成本的43%。如果西南航空想生存,庞大的一块必须大幅收缩。

公司的目标是通过自愿项目确保大幅降低成本,让尽可能多的员工有正式工作,如果情况好转,则随时回归。

2020年4月,西南航空为空乘、飞行员、维修工人、带薪员工和其他群体提供三种选择。第一种被称为自愿离职或VSP。提前退休方案包括现金买断加上慷慨的健康和旅行福利。第二种是延长休假或ETO,员工可以选择暂停工作6个月、12个月或18个月,工资减半。第三项计划允许员工短时间休假,几小时、一天、一周或一个月,工资也减半。

西南航空的6万名员工中有三分之一选择了其中一项。4500人离职,4000至5000人选择弹性工作制,14500人选择延长休假时间,通常是为了照顾在家上学的孩子。带薪员工则转岗。

“公司有100名员工从事其他工作,比如维护保养记录。”乔丹说。

尽管如此,到了10月,显然危机已经拖太久,西南航空从《关怀法案》的工资支持计划获得的援助并不够,如果政府不加大援助力度就无法阻止裁员降薪。

10月15日,危机期间凯利共面向员工进行了71次在线广播,这次他宣布:“工资支持计划可以保证在9月30日之前不降薪或强制休假,但力度不够大,撑得不够长……现在要采取必要措施拯救西南航空了。”

即使在自愿项目生效后,西南航空仍然人员太多。凯利提出的应急计划对非工会员工(主要是办公室员工)全面减薪10%,但没有裁员。对于“合同工”或工会员工,西南航空要求各团体2021年在2019年成本基础上降低10%。可以通过多种途径实现目标,例如裁员、降薪、提高生产率,或者三管齐下。工会合同要求,如果空乘、飞行员和其他团体未能提出达到10%目标的计划,西南航空裁员应该提前通知。

“去年年底,17000名空乘大约有1500人收到了‘休假’信,我一些同事也在其中。”怀特说,“他们在西南航空从未经历过这些。”如果工会不介入,员工将减少6000人,或超过10%。

但去年12月,凯利与美国财政部达成了额外援助的协议。这笔救命钱帮助西南航空避免了历史上的第一次裁员和减薪,此时距离成立50周年还有6个月。如今,每10名休假的员工中有9人重返全职工作岗位。

凯利认为,拥有随时准备投入并不断壮大的完整员工队伍,对充分利用人力进军17个新市场至关重要,随着锡拉丘兹的加入,新目标很快将增至18个。

“暂停计划最棒的一点就在于能够迅速运行起来。”乔丹说。

为快速发展组建机队

如今,西南航空提出了大型航空公司里最激进的机队扩张项目,从而支持其增长计划。

目前,机队中以老旧的波音737-700飞机为主,平均机龄12年。波音还有200多架更大的737-800飞机,机龄年轻得多,还可以服役多年。西南航空打算用两款Max机型取代即将退役的700,一款是175座的Max 8,另一款是143座的小型Max 7。

与波音老款相比,Max燃油消耗减少了14%,噪音降低了40%。今年3月,西南航空自Max复飞以来进行了最大一笔采购,固定订单增加了100架飞机。6月7日,西南航空表示因为反弹比预期快,再次追加了34架Max飞机。

两项交易中还为西南航空提供了额外187架Max飞机的采购权。所以在2021年上半年,西南航空的Max 7和Max 8的订单加上采购权已经多出一倍,机队扩大到660架飞机,赌的就是未来快速增长。

如果西南航空行使全部采购权,增长符合凯利预期的可能性非常大,那么西南航空很有可能在10年内运营近1100架飞机的机队,运力增加50%。

凯利拓展西南航空业务的模式很大程度上是靠危机。不过他总是回到人的因素,认为公司最看重的资产还是人。

10月15日,凯利警告即将到来的牺牲时曾经缓缓低声说:“我们都认为西南航空是毕生事业。当员工50年后回顾今日,他们会说:‘当初的前辈拯救了西南航空,拯救了西南航空的工作,那是西南航空最美好的时刻。’”

凯利跟他的偶像凯莱赫一样,都很有演艺天赋。但丘吉尔式的狂热背后是坚实的计划,西南航空一直最擅长的走出危机大戏将再次上演。

当竞争对手还在停机坪上轰鸣之际,西南航空已经一飞冲天。(财富中文网)

译者:梁宇

审校:夏林

Gary Kelly had no visibility. The numbers that the Southwest Airlines CEO surveyed in April of last year were unspeakably catastrophic, and he had no indicators to foresee if the pandemic signaled a brief nosedive or a slow-motion crash. “Each week when the finance team sent me the figures for our operations, they would provide commentary that was typically upbeat,” he told Fortune. But the “color” that accompanied the report for the week of April 5, 2020, evoked the lowest of low-down blues. “I’d never read a message from the finance staff anything like that dark. It said, ‘We have no words to describe the damage. How do we recover?’”

Marveling at a 97% drop in traffic from 2019, and a cash burn of $200 million that week, Kelly couldn’t help wondering the same thing. He recalled that in the days after the World Trade Center attack, when he as CFO sent similarly disastrous figures to the budget carrier’s legendary cofounder, and his own mentor, Herb Kelleher. Yet within months Southwest roared back to post steady profits. This time, Kelly, whose 17-year tenure makes him the longest-serving CEO for a major U.S. carrier, couldn’t even guess at how long the mysterious virus would ground America’s travelers. COVID might not be a short, quick shock like 9/11, but a long-lasting plague that hammered commercial aviation harder than any other big business. And that’s what happened. “9/11 was awful, but we recovered quickly,” he observes. “The COVID hit was far more damaging because we kept getting false dawns, then it would go on and on.”

You’d think that to weather the worst devastation in modern airline history, a tempest whose ferocity and duration were totally unpredictable, Kelly would play defense by onboarding a strategy of chopping costs and otherwise hunkering down. Southwest already entered the crisis hamstrung by the grounding of the aircraft it’s counting on for future expansion, the Boeing 737 Max. To stanch the bleeding, Kelly indeed slashed outlays. But at the same time, he showed the vision and moxie to pursue a superambitious flight plan for growth. While rivals were exiting market after market, Southwest has opened no fewer than 17 new destinations, a campaign that encompasses key hubs Chicago O’Hare, Miami International, and Houston Intercontinental. Over a dozen vacation destinations joined the network, from Sarasota to Colorado Springs to Palm Springs, important new dots since vacations and adventures rather than business trips are leading the recovery in air travel.

Put simply, Kelly grabbed plans off the shelf scheduled to take five years or more and exploited the pandemic to fast-track the campaign. He achieved that feat by deploying planes parked at desert airfields, and crews grounded by the pandemic, that Southwest still paid for, and dispatching them to the new routes, a gambit that brought sorely needed revenue. Before the crisis, O’Hare wasn’t even on Southwest’s wish list. But when its rivals pulled back, precious landing slots opened, and Kelly pounced. “For decades, Southwest has been able to expand during crises because of its low costs, then come back stronger,” says industry expert Robert Mann. “But what they did during the pandemic is the Big Gulp version of what they usually do. This time, they took advantage of once-in-a-lifetime opportunities.”

Turning 50

Southwest has achieved its biggest expansion ever in its deepest downturn just as it prepares to celebrate its 50th anniversary on June 18. On that date in 1971, America’s first low-cost airline flew between Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio, following a model that cofounder Rollin King illustrated for Kelleher in a hotel bar by drawing lines connecting those three cities on a napkin. As Americans line up once again at the ticket counters, it’s likely that Southwest will begin its second half-century in a much stronger position versus American, United, and Delta than before the pandemic.

It owes that edge to two factors: the land grab orchestrated during the pandemic, and its financial strength. Southwest holds the most cash and carries the lowest debt of the major carriers. That super-solid position should enable it to greatly expand its fleet in the months and years to come, providing the extra seats to capture an outsize share of the overall market’s growth, and in promising markets, pull passengers from its rivals’ planes. The FAA approved the 737 Max to fly again in December, and by March Southwest's Max fleet had returned to service. That month, Southwest laid the runway for the liftoff ahead by purchasing a big new batch of the super-fuel-efficient aircraft.

In two in-depth interviews with Fortune, Kelly described how Southwest navigated the pandemic. “You get to bat in a crisis a couple of times in 50 years, and how you do proves what you stand for or disproves it,” he said. “We’re still America’s top low-cost airline, we’re still number one in democratizing the skies, and coming out of the crisis, we’ll take lots of market share from our competitors.”

Southwest’s already seeing huge improvement in its fortunes: It’s estimating that for June, operating revenues will be down just 20% from 2019 versus three-fourths at this time last year, possibly bringing cash flow into balance and suggesting that it will make the turn to generating cash soon. Remarkably, Kelly tells Fortune that at least on a quarterly basis, he "hasn't given up on" achieving Southwest's biggest revenues ever by sometime next year, a record no other major is likely to match, or would have the nerve to predict.

Flying empty planes

A comeback on that scale would be heroic, considering the depth of the drop, and how long the pandemic crunched air travel to the levels of the 1970s. In Q2 of last year, Southwest suffered an 87% drop in passenger revenues from $5.5 billion to $700 million, causing a staggering loss of $1.1 billion. “We almost lost a zero,” says Bob Jordan, EVP of corporate services. The picture improved only slightly for the rest of the year; by Q4, ticket sales were still almost 69% below 2019 levels. For the full year, the total miles flown by all Southwest paying passengers dropped by 60%, and on average, its fleet of Boeing 737-700s and 800s flew half-empty.

The losses swelled Southwest’s debt level from a slender $1.85 billion at the close of 2019 to $10.55 billion in Q1. The $5.4 billion Payroll Support Program (PSP) grants and loans from the Treasury kept that number from going far higher. And the $1.54 billion Southwest owes in PSP debt carries extremely low rates. Still, Southwest’s balance sheet is in the best shape by far among the majors. Delta ($27.4 billion) and United ($29.8 billion) are shouldering over two-and-a-half times Southwest’s burden, and American owes three times as much at $32.5 billion.

Clayton White, a veteran flight attendant, shares vivid memories of the year that grounded America’s road warriors and vacationers. “We were flying around the country with four or five passengers on the 737-700 and 800s that carry 143 and 175 passengers,” White tells Fortune. “We’d regularly book 40 people on the ‘busiest’ routes, and 16 would board. One time on a scheduled flight from Chicago to Houston, four people were booked, and nobody showed up. We had to make the flight anyway so that the plane could make the return trip.”

It wasn’t uncommon to make the 2,400-mile trek from Los Angeles to Honolulu with a dozen passengers. White recalls a trip from San Diego to Baltimore with one passenger aboard, a physician going to the Washington, D.C., area to treat COVID patients. “We had to keep flying to take passengers like that doctor, plus we were carrying medical supplies,” he says. The atmospherics were like something out of a disaster movie. “In the spring, you’d walk through Chicago Midway, one of Southwest’s busiest hubs, and see 15 people,” says White. “You’d look out the window when arriving at one of our maintenance airports like Dallas and see dozens of planes parked in the maintenance hangars.” Flying over the Victorville Airport in California’s Mojave Desert, passengers would spy a sea of Southwest heavy metal ribboned in red, yellow, and blue.

Kelly took the idle planes off the tarmac and back to work, laying the groundwork for a fast ascent once the crisis lifted.

Going for growth in the worst downturn ever

For the previous half-decade prior to COVID, Southwest, which had been a domestic-only carrier, made a major shift by focusing its growth almost exclusively on vacation locales in the Caribbean and Latin America, adding flights to 20 destinations such as Cancún, Mexico; San José, Costa Rica; and Nassau in the Bahamas. In 2019, Southwest went to a new playbook: The goal was to first finish the last legs of the “over-the-water network” by adding Honolulu and gateways to four other Hawaiian airports from the West Coast. Then Kelly planned to launch a long-term offensive in the U.S. by flying to new places.

The airline assembled a list of 50 domestic airports where it wanted to start service. At the time, it planned only one addition, Houston Intercontinental, for early 2021, as part of the fanfare for Southwest’s 50th anniversary, since it had flown there in the early days before moving to smaller William P. Hobby Airport. “We came into 2019 with very strong growth opportunities,” says CFO Tammy Romo. “We wanted to make our network more dense, to get more connectivity. We were planning hundreds of aircraft worth of growth.” The blueprint called for around three or four new destinations a year. But it also encompassed a second front, a major push in markets where Southwest was already strong, but could fly far more customers by adding flights. “We had more customers than we could serve in Denver, Austin, Houston, Fort Lauderdale, Nashville, and more cities,” says Kelly. “From 2020 to 2024, we planned on a big, five-year growth run.”

The shockwaves from two of the worst tragedies in airline history left Southwest short of the horses needed for the charge. On March 13, 2019, the FAA grounded the Max following the Lion Air and Ethiopian Airlines crashes that killed 346 passengers. Southwest was already flying 34 of the Max and had 26 more on order for the year, meaning that its total fleet for 2019 was almost 10% smaller than expected. Southwest had no extra planes, since it had already retired 67 of its aging Boeing 737-300s to make way for the Max. And despite losing the Max aircraft, Southwest honored its commitment to serve Honolulu and the other Hawaiian destinations in 2019 and early 2020, worsening the shortage. “Our growth plans were stymied by losing the Max,” says Andrew Watterson, Southwest’s chief commercial officer.

But the pandemic opened an unexpected new lane. Kelly reckoned that by deploying planes that would otherwise sit idle, and crews flying a lot less than before, Southwest could generate higher revenue serving new places than the extra cost of those flights, consisting primarily of jet fuel and airport fees. “It was a great way to help us offset big fixed costs that are impossible to cut,” says Kelly. Adds Watterson: “We were looking for ways to keep people busy and reduce cash burn.”

Plus, as competitors retreated, the top budget carrier had a chance to gain footholds in congested airports that it might never see again. Kelly perceived that Southwest’s strategy dovetailed with the market’s trend as the pandemic lifted. Dominating the wish list of 50 destinations were smaller, beach-or-mountain vacation venues. It was business travel that suffered most by far in the crisis, and it was clear to Kelly, as well as other industry leaders, that a rush of vacationers would lead the rebound, while it would take years for the business crowd to return in their old numbers.

Hence, Kelly predicted that for their size, those leisure destinations would generate far more new passengers than the business as a whole. Though most of the markets were small, Kelly figured that adding a lot of them fast would enable Southwest to expand more rapidly than under the original plan, where it would move slowly and deliberately by adding a couple of new airports a year. Starting in mid-November, Southwest introduced service to Colorado’s Steamboat Springs, Telluride, and Colorado Springs; California’s Fresno, Santa Barbara, and Palm Springs; Florida’s Sarasota/Bradenton and Destin/Fort Walton Beach; and Savannah/Hilton Head, as well as eight other first-time destinations. In these prime vacation markets, the goal is to lure totally new customers. “When we’re looking for leisure customers, the best places are those smaller locales,” says Watterson. “Southwest coming to town is a big deal in those markets. You get a lot more news coverage and buzz in places like Fresno and Colorado Springs than going to major airports.”

The ace was planting the flag in two major destinations, one where Southwest had no hopes of flying, and the other where the journey would have taken years. In Chicago, Southwest had long been the dominant carrier in Midway. But Midway, occupying just over one square mile, was operating at full capacity, preventing Southwest from adding more flights to cities where more of its Windy City customers wanted to go. Prior to the pandemic, giant O’Hare wasn’t even on Southwest’s list. The FAA had effectively frozen the number of landing and takeoff “slots” or times, making it impossible for Southwest to expand there, and challenge United and American, the two carriers that account for almost 80% of its traffic.

But the City of Chicago controlled a number of gates at O’Hare and deemed that if those gates went mainly unused, newcomers could step in. In the past, that didn’t happen because the airport was chockablock with takeoffs and landings. But in the pandemic, the carriers at O’Hare were operating maybe one-third of their regular flights. That pullback allowed Southwest to realize what it had only dreamed of—grabbing gates at the nation’s third-busiest airport. “We thought getting into O’Hare would be impossible,” says Watterson. “We had no plan for starting service there at all.”

Now, Southwest is offering a total of 20 nonstop flights a day to Dallas, Denver, Nashville, Phoenix, and Baltimore/Washingon. Many folks who live near O’Hare on the far north side didn’t take Southwest before because they dreaded making the long drive south to Midway. Now for the first time, they can fly the largest low-cost carrier from nearby O’Hare.

In Miami, Southwest benefited from another breakthrough courtesy of the crisis. It had a thriving hub in Fort Lauderdale, but not a single flight from much larger Miami International to the south. The problem was that the airport charged what amounted to big fees per passenger that were traditionally several times higher than in Fort Lauderdale. Kelly thought Miami was highly attractive but wasn’t rushing to invade. “The difference in fees made it extremely difficult for a low-cost carrier like Southwest,” says Mann. But the airport wanted to incentivize new entrants to help recover its costs. So Miami International is now charging flat monthly fees to carriers that provide high volumes of flights. That change significantly lowers Southwest's overall costs, shrinking the gap with Fort Lauderdale. Suddenly, that new arrangement has made Miami much more attractive to low-cost competition.

Once again, Kelly leaped in. “Miami’s taking off like a rocket,” he says. Many of the folks flying Southwest are regular customers from such hubs as New York’s LaGuardia and Midway who vacation or do business in Miami, but couldn’t fly there on their favorite carrier and didn’t want to get stuck in traffic driving south on I-95 from Fort Lauderdale. “It turns out that for our customers, that drive is a much bigger hassle than we expected,” says Watterson. “Flying to Miami prevents our customers from Chicago or the Northeast from leaking to other airlines.”

Pre-COVID, Southwest was serving markets that sold a total of $63 billion in tickets a year. Entering the recovery, it will reach airports that do another $13 billion in business, a jump of 20% in what Watterson calls “the pond we can fish in.” The upshot: Kelly predicts that the surge in leisure travelers could by 2022 more than offset the decline in business traffic, lifting Southwest back to 2019 levels well before its big competitors get there.

Keeping the record of no layoffs or pay cuts

Southwest’s not just the sole major to grow its footprint big-time in the pandemic; it’s also the only one not to impose huge layoffs and pay cuts. In fact, it didn’t do either one. By contrast, the global industry lost 400,000 workers, and American alone laid off 32,000. Southwest prides itself on never imposing furloughs or chopping wages. Kelly tells Fortune that the most distressing part of the crisis was the prospect of punishing the workforce. “I echoed what Herb Kelleher said during 9/11,” says Kelly. “I can’t promise we won’t lay people off, but I can promise it’s the last thing we’ll do.”

Still, Southwest was hemorrhaging so much cash, for so long, that it came darn close to breaking that hallowed tradition, just as the half-century mark approached. “You can’t take care of people without taking care of the company,” says Kelly. “But I wanted to do everything I could to keep people in place and the blood flowing, so that we’d be staffed to zoom out into the recovery and create more jobs.” Kelly’s first move was to hammer nonlabor costs. He curbed such capital expenditures as tech investments and airport expansions. As flights dwindled, “variable” costs for the likes of fuel, oil, and landing fees dropped sharply. “A lot of operating expenses flow from customer volumes,” he notes. Overall, Southwest axed outlays of $8 billion in what Kelly calls “cold, hard cash.” That drive lowered combined operating expenses and capex by 40% versus 2019.

But airlines are capital on wings. Southwest had to keep paying for its fleet of 750 Boeing 737s, flocks of which were parked at maintenance hubs such as Victorville. Of course, its biggest single cost by far is wages, salaries, and benefits, accounting in 2019 for 43% of operating costs, and for Southwest to survive, that huge nut had to shrink drastically. The objective was to secure large reductions through voluntary programs that kept the largest possible number of workers officially employed, and poised to return in the upswing. In April 2020, Southwest introduced three options for flight attendants, pilots, maintenance workers, salaried employees, and all other groups. The first was called voluntary separation, or VSP. The early-retirement packages included cash buyouts plus generous health and travel benefits. The second: extended time off, or ETO, in which employees could elect to stop working for six, 12, or 18 months at half-pay. The third program allowed workers to take time off in short spurts, a few hours or a day, a week, or a month at a time, also at half-pay.

One-third of Southwest’s 60,000 employees chose one of the programs. The departures totaled 4,500. Another 4,000 to 5,000 chose to work on flexible schedules, and 14,500 opted for extended time off, often to supervise their schooled-at-home kids. Salaried employees switched roles. “One hundred people in personnel went to other jobs across the company, such as keeping maintenance records,” says Jordan. Still, it was clear by October that the crisis was dragging on so long that the aid Southwest had received from the CARES Act Payroll Support Program wasn’t adequate to prevent layoffs and pay cuts—unless Washington stepped up with more rounds of assistance. In one of his 71 online broadcasts to employees during the crisis, Kelly on Oct. 15 declared, “The Payroll Support program allowed us to operate without pay cuts or furloughs through Sept. 30, but it didn’t go far enough or long enough…Now it’s time to do what must be done to save Southwest.”

Even after the voluntary programs took effect, Southwest was still far overstaffed. Kelly’s contingency planned called for a 10% across-the-board pay reduction for nonunion staff, chiefly office workers, sans layoffs. For “contract,” or union workers, the airline directed each group to reduce its 2019 costs by 10% in 2021. But they could reach that goal through a variety of routes, by imposing layoffs, reducing pay, or hiking productivity, or a blend of all three. The union contracts required that Southwest provide advance notice of the cuts to come if the flight attendants, pilots, and other groups failed to present a plan to reach that 10% target. “About 1,500 of the 17,000 flight attendants got those ‘furlough’ letters late last year, and I was flying with some of them,” says White. “They’d never seen that from Southwest before.” If the unions didn’t come through, the workforce would shrink by 6,000, or over 10%.

But in December, Kelly reached an agreement with the Treasury for additional aid. The lifeline saved Southwest from imposing the first layoffs and pay reductions in its history, six months before the 50-year mark. Today, nine in 10 of the employees who went on leave have returned to full-time work. Kelly views a full workforce that’s ready to go and grow as essential to capitalizing on its move into those 17 new markets, soon to increase to 18 with the addition of Syracuse. “The beauty of the time-off program is the ability to ramp up quickly,” says Jordan.

Building a fleet for a fast takeoff

Now Southwest is backing its growth plans with the most ambitious aircraft expansion program of any major. Dominating its current fleet is the aging Boeing 737-700, averaging 12 years in the skies. Boeing also has over 200 of the larger 737-800s, which are far younger and have years of service ahead. It plans to replace the fast-retiring 700s with two Max models: the Max 8 at 175 seats, and the smaller Max 7 that boards 143. The MAXs burn 14% less jet fuel, and are 40% quieter, than their Boeing predecessors. In March, Southwest made the biggest new purchase since the Max returned to service, raising its firm orders by 100 planes, and on June 7 it cited the faster-than-expected rebound to add another 34 Max aircraft to its book. As part of those two deals, it secured an additional 187 options on Max aircraft. So in the first half of 2021, Southwest bet big on growth by almost doubling its roster of firm orders plus options on the Max 7 and Max 8 to 660 jets.

If Southwest exercises all options—a strong possibility if its growth opportunities match Kelly’s expectations—it could operate a fleet of almost 1,100 planes in 10 years, an increase in capacity of 50%. Kelly’s template for expanding Southwest’s reach in large part grew out of the crisis. Yet he always returns to the human factor, the view that the assets the carrier most prizes are its people. In his Oct. 15 warning on looming sacrifice, Kelly intoned, “We all realize Southwest is a cause. When our employees look back 50 years from now, they will say, ‘Those people saved Southwest, they saved Southwest’s jobs, that was Southwest’s finest hour.’” Kelly’s a showman like his hero Kelleher. But behind the Churchillian fervor is a solid plan to do once again what Southwest has always accomplished coming out of a crisis—to soar while rivals are still revving on the tarmac.

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