一场名为“芯片决战”的汽车半导体芯片短缺危机,可能让汽车制造商因祸得福。
7月15日,德国的戴姆勒(Daimler)紧跟同行福特(Ford)、大众(Volkswagen)以及Stellantis集团之后,公布了其第二季度的财报业绩。该公司声称第二季度的财报之所以好于预期,是因为核心品牌梅赛德斯奔驰(Mercedes-Benz)拥有优秀的产品系列、严格控制成本,以及降低信贷风险。
在新冠疫情爆发之后,半导体行业遭遇了瓶颈,汽车行业难免受到冲击,但Jefferies公司的汽车行业分析师菲利普·霍乔斯认为,如果情况未进一步明显恶化,或许还有一线希望。
制造商不但可以因此转而生产其他利润更加丰厚的车型,例如体积更大、配备完善的SUV,芯片短缺还或许能够间接带来长远的利益,让汽车制造商摆脱依靠利润率稀释折扣来转移对金属的依赖。
“考虑到芯片短缺的情况持续了很长时间,该行业被迫做出调整。如果只是暂时性短缺,可能就不会出现这种情况。”霍乔斯告诉《财富》杂志。
这对汽车制造商来说是好消息,但对汽车消费者来说就是坏消息,他们花在买车上的钱更多了。这是美国通胀率创下自2008年6月以来最高月度环比增幅的一个因素。
霍乔斯说:“因此,消费者现在只能够以标价购买汽车,而不是以我们通常看到的10%到15%的折扣购买。在美国,汽车市场已经回到2019年的水平,库存比欧洲更少,一些经销商甚至在涨价。他还补充说,未来12到18个月将表明这种现象能否持续。
美国的通胀是不平衡的:6月,约90%的核心物价指数(CPI)上涨0.2%(同比上涨2%),10%的核心物价指数上涨超过5%(同比上涨20%)。这次通胀主要向汽车行业(二手车、新车、出租车)、航空业、电影业、酒店服务业倾斜。这种倾斜是前所未有的。
——大卫·罗森伯格(@EconguyRosie),2021年7月14日
戴姆勒表示,即将成为梅赛德斯公司核心部门的汽车货车部门第二季度的息税前利润为34亿欧元(41亿美元),大大超过了市场普遍预期的29亿欧元和相较于去年第四季度11亿欧元的亏损。
更重要的是,在剔除1.66亿欧元的非经常性法律和重组成本后,营业毛利率上升至12.8%,显著高于市场预期的11.5%。
戴姆勒的首席执行官康林松(Ola Källlenius)在一份声明中指出,梅赛德斯连续三个季度实现两位数的利润率,是因为该公司“坚持不懈地专注于利润增长以及严格的成本控制”。
投资银行瑞银(UBS)预测,梅赛德斯好于预期的业绩,意味着市场平均预期将上升10%至15%。
戴姆勒在一份研究报告中称,供应短缺也间接带来了好处。“我们认为,整个行业的芯片供应紧张状况将持续较长时间,这对未来几个季度的市场价格而言也是一个好兆头。”该公司表示。
预警系统
汽车制造商们认为,没有理由相信芯片供应瓶颈会很快结束。大众公司公布,上半年运营利润达到了创纪录的110亿欧元,同时该公司表示,自去年12月中旬首次出现的芯片短缺现在可能严重影响下半年的交货,比上半年更甚,因为上半年经销商尚可以依赖库存。
宝马集团(BMW Group)的生产主管米兰·内德利科维奇告诉媒体,目前公司的产量缺口约为3万辆,整个工厂网络的装配线在交班期间甚至一整天都无法运行。
“半导体的供应问题非常显著,整个汽车行业都受到了严重影响。”他在7月初表示
宝马、戴姆勒和大众目前正在开发一种预警系统,以防止未来进一步短缺的出现,并更好地了解直接为供应商供货的中小企业的庞大网络。
安永会计师事务所(EY)负责全球和运输业的首席分析师阿尼尔·瓦尔桑在7月早些时候的播客节目中称:“制造商实际上看不到自己的供应链。”瓦尔桑将这一短缺称为“芯片决战”。
尽管整个汽车行业或将从加强的定价纪律中受益,市场预测机构LMC Automotive于6月底警告称,若个别汽车制造商不能在美国疫情后的经济繁荣期向客户交付产品,就可能会遭受严重打击。
“由于库存不足而失去一位(有时非常忠诚的)客户的代价,或者是赢回那些失望的买家所需要付出的努力,这些不应该被低估。”该机构称。(财富中文网)
编译:於欣、杨二一
一场名为“芯片决战”的汽车半导体芯片短缺危机,可能让汽车制造商因祸得福。
7月15日,德国的戴姆勒(Daimler)紧跟同行福特(Ford)、大众(Volkswagen)以及Stellantis集团之后,公布了其第二季度的财报业绩。该公司声称第二季度的财报之所以好于预期,是因为核心品牌梅赛德斯奔驰(Mercedes-Benz)拥有优秀的产品系列、严格控制成本,以及降低信贷风险。
在新冠疫情爆发之后,半导体行业遭遇了瓶颈,汽车行业难免受到冲击,但Jefferies公司的汽车行业分析师菲利普·霍乔斯认为,如果情况未进一步明显恶化,或许还有一线希望。
制造商不但可以因此转而生产其他利润更加丰厚的车型,例如体积更大、配备完善的SUV,芯片短缺还或许能够间接带来长远的利益,让汽车制造商摆脱依靠利润率稀释折扣来转移对金属的依赖。
“考虑到芯片短缺的情况持续了很长时间,该行业被迫做出调整。如果只是暂时性短缺,可能就不会出现这种情况。”霍乔斯告诉《财富》杂志。
这对汽车制造商来说是好消息,但对汽车消费者来说就是坏消息,他们花在买车上的钱更多了。这是美国通胀率创下自2008年6月以来最高月度环比增幅的一个因素。
霍乔斯说:“因此,消费者现在只能够以标价购买汽车,而不是以我们通常看到的10%到15%的折扣购买。在美国,汽车市场已经回到2019年的水平,库存比欧洲更少,一些经销商甚至在涨价。他还补充说,未来12到18个月将表明这种现象能否持续。
美国的通胀是不平衡的:6月,约90%的核心物价指数(CPI)上涨0.2%(同比上涨2%),10%的核心物价指数上涨超过5%(同比上涨20%)。这次通胀主要向汽车行业(二手车、新车、出租车)、航空业、电影业、酒店服务业倾斜。这种倾斜是前所未有的。
——大卫·罗森伯格(@EconguyRosie),2021年7月14日
戴姆勒表示,即将成为梅赛德斯公司核心部门的汽车货车部门第二季度的息税前利润为34亿欧元(41亿美元),大大超过了市场普遍预期的29亿欧元和相较于去年第四季度11亿欧元的亏损。
更重要的是,在剔除1.66亿欧元的非经常性法律和重组成本后,营业毛利率上升至12.8%,显著高于市场预期的11.5%。
戴姆勒的首席执行官康林松(Ola Källlenius)在一份声明中指出,梅赛德斯连续三个季度实现两位数的利润率,是因为该公司“坚持不懈地专注于利润增长以及严格的成本控制”。
投资银行瑞银(UBS)预测,梅赛德斯好于预期的业绩,意味着市场平均预期将上升10%至15%。
戴姆勒在一份研究报告中称,供应短缺也间接带来了好处。“我们认为,整个行业的芯片供应紧张状况将持续较长时间,这对未来几个季度的市场价格而言也是一个好兆头。”该公司表示。
预警系统
汽车制造商们认为,没有理由相信芯片供应瓶颈会很快结束。大众公司公布,上半年运营利润达到了创纪录的110亿欧元,同时该公司表示,自去年12月中旬首次出现的芯片短缺现在可能严重影响下半年的交货,比上半年更甚,因为上半年经销商尚可以依赖库存。
宝马集团(BMW Group)的生产主管米兰·内德利科维奇告诉媒体,目前公司的产量缺口约为3万辆,整个工厂网络的装配线在交班期间甚至一整天都无法运行。
“半导体的供应问题非常显著,整个汽车行业都受到了严重影响。”他在7月初表示
宝马、戴姆勒和大众目前正在开发一种预警系统,以防止未来进一步短缺的出现,并更好地了解直接为供应商供货的中小企业的庞大网络。
安永会计师事务所(EY)负责全球和运输业的首席分析师阿尼尔·瓦尔桑在7月早些时候的播客节目中称:“制造商实际上看不到自己的供应链。”瓦尔桑将这一短缺称为“芯片决战”。
尽管整个汽车行业或将从加强的定价纪律中受益,市场预测机构LMC Automotive于6月底警告称,若个别汽车制造商不能在美国疫情后的经济繁荣期向客户交付产品,就可能会遭受严重打击。
“由于库存不足而失去一位(有时非常忠诚的)客户的代价,或者是赢回那些失望的买家所需要付出的努力,这些不应该被低估。”该机构称。(财富中文网)
编译:於欣、杨二一
The ongoing automotive semiconductor shortage one consultancy pithily called “chipageddon” might actually prove to be a blessing in disguise for carmakers.
On Thursday, Germany’s Daimler followed mass market peers Ford, Volkswagen, and Stellantis in reporting better-than-expected second-quarter results, citing favorable product mix at its core Mercedes-Benz brand, strict cost management, and reduced credit risks from its loan book.
Following so swiftly on the heels of the pandemic, the semiconductor bottleneck initially appeared to be a one-two blow for the sector, but Jefferies auto analyst Philippe Houchois believes there may be a silver lining—assuming the situation doesn’t markedly deteriorate further.
Not only have manufacturers skewed their production toward more profitable models such as larger, fully equipped SUVs, the chip crunch may lead indirectly to a lasting benefit by weaning automakers off their addiction to move metal with the aid of margin-diluting rebates.
“Given how protracted the problem has been, the industry has been forced to adjust. Had it just been a flash shortage, this likely would not have been the case,” Houchois told Fortune.
What's good news for automakers, however, is bad for car customers, who are now paying more at showrooms. This has been a contributing factor in the U.S. inflation rate increasing at its highest month-on-month pace since June 2008.
“As a result, consumers are now buying cars at list price rather than the 10% to 15% discounts we typically see. In the U.S., where the car market is already back to 2019 levels and inventories are much more depleted than in Europe, some dealers are even marking prices up,” he said, adding the next 12 to 18 months will indicate whether this discipline can be sustained.
The lopsided US inflation story: about 90% of the core CPI was +0.2% in June (+2% YoY) and 10% of it jumped over 5% (+20% YoY). Autos (used, new, rentals), airlines, movies, hotels — there's your inflation. The skew is unprecedented.
— David Rosenberg (@EconguyRosie) July 14, 2021
Daimler said earnings before interest and tax at its Mercedes cars and vans division, which will soon form the core of a new stand-alone company, swung to €3.4 billion ($4.1 billion) in the second quarter. This easily exceeded consensus estimates the company collected of €2.9 billion and the €1.1 billion loss in the previous year’s quarter.
More importantly, the operating margin surged to 12.8% when adjusted for €166 million in nonrecurring legal and restructuring costs—significantly higher than the 11.5% the market expected.
In a statement, Daimler CEO Ola Källlenius attributed the third straight quarter of double-digit margins to a “relentless focus on profitable growth and tight cost control" at Mercedes.
The better-than-expected results mean there is anywhere between 10% to 15% upside to consensus estimates, investment bank UBS estimated.
It, too, saw indirect benefits from the supply shortage, writing in a research note: “We think an industrywide, tighter-for-longer chip supply situation bodes well for price/mix also in the next few quarters.”
Early warning system
According to automakers, there is also no reason to believe the bottleneck will end anytime soon. When Volkswagen prereleased record first-half operating profit of €11 billion, it said the chip shortage it first flagged in mid-December would now likely affect deliveries more in the second half than in the first, as dealers were able to rely on inventories.
BMW Group production chief Milan Nedeljković told reporters the current output gap at his company amounted to roughly 30,000 vehicles, as assembly lines across its factory network stood motionless during individual shifts or even entire days.
“The supply constraints of semiconductors is really critical, and the entire auto industry has been heavily affected by it,” he said at the start of July.
BMW, Daimler, and Volkswagen are now currently developing an early warning system to prevent further shortages from occurring in the future and help gain a better overview over the vast network of small and medium-size companies that feed their direct suppliers.
“Manufacturers don’t actually have visibility into their supply chain,” said Anil Valsan, EY global automotive and transportation lead analyst, during a podcast earlier this month, dubbing the shortage as “chipageddon.”
While the industry as a whole might benefit from the increased pricing discipline, market forecaster LMC Automotive warned at the end of June that individual carmakers could suffer heavily if they cannot deliver to customers during the post-pandemic U.S. economic boom.
“What should not be underestimated is the cost of losing a (sometimes very loyal) customer, due to lack of inventory, or the effort it will take to win back those disappointed buyers,” it wrote.