由于通胀水平的不断上升,评论美国总统乔•拜登的人士正在批评其经济政策,投资者和经济学家也正为此感到担忧。然而,尽管一些观察家似乎对通胀的前景忧心不已,但面对温和的通胀水平,大多数美国民众无需感到焦虑。事实上,众多美国民众,尤其是那些不怎么富裕的人群,实际上将受益于通胀水平的上升。
我职业生涯的大部分时间都供职于贝莱德集团(BlackRock Group),从事风险评估工作,与华尔街打交道。在2007年至2008年的金融危机发生后,我帮助银行、政府和私营公司评估其风险水平。
一些看似风险极高的事件实际上并不具有真正的风险。当我审视眼下的经济情况时,通胀便是如此。我们基本上没有必要对当前的通胀感到坐卧不安,尤其是对数千万举步维艰的美国民众来说,通胀还存在一个鲜有人讨论的益处。
2021年,我们到目前为止看到的所有证据都表明,工资在稳步增长,企业在重新开业,美国民众又重新加入劳动大军。由于债务的真实价值有可能会随着通胀的上升而缩水,但工资却在随着通胀的增长而增加,因此更多的美国民众有望受益于更高的通胀水平,而且这一比例比你想象的还要高。
如果你在偿还抵押贷款,或拥有大量其他债务,例如学生贷款,通胀可能对你是有益的。尽管你的抵押贷款毫无变化,但房子的价值在增长,这些收益都是你的,哪怕你只是支付了房子的首付款。你的收入增幅通常略高于通胀水平,但你的绝大部分支出都不会上涨,这样你就有更多的钱去消费或储蓄。
另一方面,对向他人贷款的银行或投资者来说,通胀可能会带来不利影响,因为你需要向工人支付更多的工资,但却没有任何额外的收入。
然而,这一部分人群的数量要比持有大量债务的人群少得多。位于底部的一半美国民众实际上的净财富总额为负值,其总债务要高于其财富。然而,银行家和投资者对评估经济趋势的经济学家、分析师和商业新闻主持人有着莫大的影响力。
这并不是说通胀越高越好。然而,相对于超高的通胀本身,那些推荐用于预防通胀的手段对每天工作的芸芸大众来说更加不利。如果出现二选一的情形,一边是4%的通胀加2万亿美元的额外联邦基础设施开支,而另一边是2%的通胀加基础设施法案的取消,那么很明显,第一个选项对绝大部分的美国民众来说更有利。
需要明确的是,这并非是一个我们不得不做出的抉择。那些看衰通胀的经济学家数十年来一直都重复着同样的说辞,但他们每一次都是错的。事实在于,鱼和熊掌并非不能兼得。
那些主推通胀缓解政策的华尔街银行家和投资者的利益不应该凌驾于大多数美国民众的利益之上,因为在美国走出新冠疫情阴影之际,这些美国民众迫切需要救助。
所有人都意识到,稳定的美元价值是美国经济活力至关重要的组成部分。然而,我们没有令人信服的理由去采取限制经济恢复的举措,因为这种限制仅仅是为了让通胀下降那点微不足道的百分比,但恢复举措实际上能够帮助那些需要金融支持的民众。(财富中文网)
莫里斯•珀尔是“爱国百万富翁”(Patriotic Millionaires)团体的主席,亦是贝莱德集团的前董事总经理。他著有《向富人征税:谎言、漏洞和说客如何让富人变得更富》(Tax the Rich: How Lies, Loopholes, and Lobbyists Make the Rich Even Richer)一书。
译者:冯丰
审校:夏林
由于通胀水平的不断上升,评论美国总统乔•拜登的人士正在批评其经济政策,投资者和经济学家也正为此感到担忧。然而,尽管一些观察家似乎对通胀的前景忧心不已,但面对温和的通胀水平,大多数美国民众无需感到焦虑。事实上,众多美国民众,尤其是那些不怎么富裕的人群,实际上将受益于通胀水平的上升。
我职业生涯的大部分时间都供职于贝莱德集团(BlackRock Group),从事风险评估工作,与华尔街打交道。在2007年至2008年的金融危机发生后,我帮助银行、政府和私营公司评估其风险水平。
一些看似风险极高的事件实际上并不具有真正的风险。当我审视眼下的经济情况时,通胀便是如此。我们基本上没有必要对当前的通胀感到坐卧不安,尤其是对数千万举步维艰的美国民众来说,通胀还存在一个鲜有人讨论的益处。
2021年,我们到目前为止看到的所有证据都表明,工资在稳步增长,企业在重新开业,美国民众又重新加入劳动大军。由于债务的真实价值有可能会随着通胀的上升而缩水,但工资却在随着通胀的增长而增加,因此更多的美国民众有望受益于更高的通胀水平,而且这一比例比你想象的还要高。
如果你在偿还抵押贷款,或拥有大量其他债务,例如学生贷款,通胀可能对你是有益的。尽管你的抵押贷款毫无变化,但房子的价值在增长,这些收益都是你的,哪怕你只是支付了房子的首付款。你的收入增幅通常略高于通胀水平,但你的绝大部分支出都不会上涨,这样你就有更多的钱去消费或储蓄。
另一方面,对向他人贷款的银行或投资者来说,通胀可能会带来不利影响,因为你需要向工人支付更多的工资,但却没有任何额外的收入。
然而,这一部分人群的数量要比持有大量债务的人群少得多。位于底部的一半美国民众实际上的净财富总额为负值,其总债务要高于其财富。然而,银行家和投资者对评估经济趋势的经济学家、分析师和商业新闻主持人有着莫大的影响力。
这并不是说通胀越高越好。然而,相对于超高的通胀本身,那些推荐用于预防通胀的手段对每天工作的芸芸大众来说更加不利。如果出现二选一的情形,一边是4%的通胀加2万亿美元的额外联邦基础设施开支,而另一边是2%的通胀加基础设施法案的取消,那么很明显,第一个选项对绝大部分的美国民众来说更有利。
需要明确的是,这并非是一个我们不得不做出的抉择。那些看衰通胀的经济学家数十年来一直都重复着同样的说辞,但他们每一次都是错的。事实在于,鱼和熊掌并非不能兼得。
那些主推通胀缓解政策的华尔街银行家和投资者的利益不应该凌驾于大多数美国民众的利益之上,因为在美国走出新冠疫情阴影之际,这些美国民众迫切需要救助。
所有人都意识到,稳定的美元价值是美国经济活力至关重要的组成部分。然而,我们没有令人信服的理由去采取限制经济恢复的举措,因为这种限制仅仅是为了让通胀下降那点微不足道的百分比,但恢复举措实际上能够帮助那些需要金融支持的民众。(财富中文网)
莫里斯•珀尔是“爱国百万富翁”(Patriotic Millionaires)团体的主席,亦是贝莱德集团的前董事总经理。他著有《向富人征税:谎言、漏洞和说客如何让富人变得更富》(Tax the Rich: How Lies, Loopholes, and Lobbyists Make the Rich Even Richer)一书。
译者:冯丰
审校:夏林
With inflation on the rise, President Biden’s critics are blaming his economic policies and investors and economists are concerned. But for all the worries that the prospect of inflation seems to strike in the hearts of some observers, most Americans have nothing to fear from moderate levels of inflation. In fact, many Americans, particularly the less wealthy, actually stand to benefit from higher levels of inflation.
I spent most of my career on Wall Street at BlackRock Group working on risk assessment. In the aftermath of the 2007–08 financial crisis, I helped banks, governments, and private companies assess their level of risk.
Some things that may seem especially risky are not really risks. When I look at our economy today, inflation is one of those things. There is virtually no reason for us to be extremely worried about inflation right now, especially when it comes with an under-discussed upside for tens of millions of struggling Americans.
All of the evidence we’ve seen so far in 2021 shows that wages are steadily rising as businesses reopen and Americans reenter the workforce. Faced with the prospect of the real value of their debt shrinking and their wages rising at pace with inflation, more Americans than you would think stand to gain from higher inflation rates.
If you are paying a mortgage or have any other large form of debt, like a student loan, inflation is good for you. Your mortgage payment does not change at all, but the house goes up in value, and you get all of the benefit, even though you only paid the down payment on the house. Your income goes up typically a tiny bit more than inflation, but a major part of your expenses do not go up, leaving you with more money to either save or spend.
On the other hand, if you are a bank or an investor and you lend money to people and collect their mortgage payments, inflation might be bad for you, because you need to pay more to your workers without receiving any additional revenue.
But, this group of people is substantially smaller than those with significant debt. The bottom half of Americans combined actually have a negative net worth, with more total debt than wealth. Bankers and investors, however, hold a disproportionate sway over the economists, analysts, and business news anchors who review economic trends.
This isn’t to say that we should be aiming for more inflation. But the steps that are being recommended to avoid inflation are more detrimental to everyday working people than ultra-high inflation itself. If we have to choose between 4% inflation combined with $2 trillion in additional federal infrastructure spending, or 2% inflation and no infrastructure bill, the first option seems obviously better for almost all Americans.
Let’s be clear—that’s not a choice we even know we have to make. Economists crying doomsday over inflation have been saying the same thing for decades, and they’ve been wrong every time. The truth is, we can likely have our cake and eat it too.
The interests of Wall Street bankers and investors who are pushing for policies that lead to less inflation should not be given higher priority over the majority of American people who are in desperate need of relief as we make our way out of the COVID-19 pandemic.
We can all agree that a stable dollar value is a crucial part of the American economy’s viability. But there’s no compelling reason for us to limit our recovery efforts just to avoid an insignificant number of inflation percentage points that could actually help those in need of financial support.
Morris Pearl is chair of Patriotic Millionaires and former managing director at BlackRock. He is the author of Tax the Rich: How Lies, Loopholes, and Lobbyists Make the Rich Even Richer.