联合利华公司(Unilever)已经受到了通货膨胀的冲击——现在,这股冲击正向你迎面扑来。
随着投入成本不断上升,联合利华下调了今年余下数月的利润预期。受此影响,7月22日欧洲股市午盘联合利华股价下跌约5.6%。作为快消品巨头,联合利华旗下有Ben & Jerry’s冰淇淋、好乐门(Hellman's)蛋黄酱、多芬(Dove)洗发水和阳光(Sunlight)洗衣粉等众多产品。
联合利华在7月22日上午公布的半年报中指出,棕榈油等原材料、包装、货运和全球经销成本正在以2008年以来的最快速度上涨,备受关注的预期营业利润率将由19.8%下调至18.8%。下调后的预期营业利润率接近去年新冠疫情期间的水平。也就是说,联合利华今年依然无法达到营业利润率20%的目标。
被抑制的需求、全球供应链短缺和不断飙升的大宗商品价格共同导致了通胀上升,迫使各大企业做出艰难的抉择:要么把成本转嫁给消费者,要么自行消化成本、眼睁睁看着利润缩水。联合利华称,全球190个国家每天都有25亿人在使用联合利华旗下的品牌。
未来联合利华计划更快提高巴西和南亚等市场的商品价格,同时在欧洲市场更努力减缓消费下降。
联合利华的首席执行官乔安路(Alan Jope)指出,成本波动和价格上涨的时机让公司的营业利润变得更难以预测。但他向投资者保证:“我们正在对此进行动态管理,预计2021年基本营业利润率将与今年持平。”
不过,这一消息还是令市场观察人士措手不及。7月22日,美银证券(Bank of America Securities)的投资者报告中,分析师对联合利华下调营业利润率预期表示惊讶,并指出“2021年第一季度乃至6月中旬时,管理层对于管控投入成本压力还非常有信心”。
目前,美银证券仍然维持联合利华的评级为“买入”,并表示联合利华的股价如今比同行低20%,这一下跌并不合理。
日用杂货价格上涨
联合利华不是唯一提高商品价格的公司。其竞争对手宝洁(Proctor & Gamble)正着手将纸尿裤和女性护理产品的价格提高5%至10%。宝洁的首席执行官大卫•泰勒于6月在《财富》全球论坛上表示,通胀是“真实存在的”。
“纸浆、纸张、一切和油有关的东西、塑料包装都在涨价。卡车运输成本大幅上涨,海运运费大幅上涨。各方面的成本都在上涨……我们将无可避免地看到通货膨胀率上升。上升多少?我不知道。”
标普全球(S&P Global)的一项调研显示,这一现象可能会持续下去。这家市场调研公司指出,尽管一些较大的压力点将会得到缓解,但通货膨胀率不会很快回落至美联储(Federal Reserve)的目标水平。目前美联储的通货膨胀率目标为2%,远低于5月实际录得的核心个人消费支出物价指数3.4%。报告指出,零售和制造业价格涨幅居前。
而且别忘了,瑞银集团(UBS)的首席经济学家保罗•唐纳文指出:“美国两党对于通胀问题的看法截然不同。”近期美国总统乔•拜登和共和党参议院少数派领导人米奇•麦康奈尔的讲话证实了唐纳文的观点。拜登总统表示,汽车价格很快就会回落到新冠疫情前的水平;麦康奈尔则称,通货膨胀使“所有东西都价格飞涨”。
唐纳文说,他们都错了。
但就冰淇淋而言,麦康奈尔可能是对。(财富中文网)
译者:钱功毅
联合利华公司(Unilever)已经受到了通货膨胀的冲击——现在,这股冲击正向你迎面扑来。
随着投入成本不断上升,联合利华下调了今年余下数月的利润预期。受此影响,7月22日欧洲股市午盘联合利华股价下跌约5.6%。作为快消品巨头,联合利华旗下有Ben & Jerry’s冰淇淋、好乐门(Hellman's)蛋黄酱、多芬(Dove)洗发水和阳光(Sunlight)洗衣粉等众多产品。
联合利华在7月22日上午公布的半年报中指出,棕榈油等原材料、包装、货运和全球经销成本正在以2008年以来的最快速度上涨,备受关注的预期营业利润率将由19.8%下调至18.8%。下调后的预期营业利润率接近去年新冠疫情期间的水平。也就是说,联合利华今年依然无法达到营业利润率20%的目标。
被抑制的需求、全球供应链短缺和不断飙升的大宗商品价格共同导致了通胀上升,迫使各大企业做出艰难的抉择:要么把成本转嫁给消费者,要么自行消化成本、眼睁睁看着利润缩水。联合利华称,全球190个国家每天都有25亿人在使用联合利华旗下的品牌。
未来联合利华计划更快提高巴西和南亚等市场的商品价格,同时在欧洲市场更努力减缓消费下降。
联合利华的首席执行官乔安路(Alan Jope)指出,成本波动和价格上涨的时机让公司的营业利润变得更难以预测。但他向投资者保证:“我们正在对此进行动态管理,预计2021年基本营业利润率将与今年持平。”
不过,这一消息还是令市场观察人士措手不及。7月22日,美银证券(Bank of America Securities)的投资者报告中,分析师对联合利华下调营业利润率预期表示惊讶,并指出“2021年第一季度乃至6月中旬时,管理层对于管控投入成本压力还非常有信心”。
目前,美银证券仍然维持联合利华的评级为“买入”,并表示联合利华的股价如今比同行低20%,这一下跌并不合理。
日用杂货价格上涨
联合利华不是唯一提高商品价格的公司。其竞争对手宝洁(Proctor & Gamble)正着手将纸尿裤和女性护理产品的价格提高5%至10%。宝洁的首席执行官大卫•泰勒于6月在《财富》全球论坛上表示,通胀是“真实存在的”。
“纸浆、纸张、一切和油有关的东西、塑料包装都在涨价。卡车运输成本大幅上涨,海运运费大幅上涨。各方面的成本都在上涨……我们将无可避免地看到通货膨胀率上升。上升多少?我不知道。”
标普全球(S&P Global)的一项调研显示,这一现象可能会持续下去。这家市场调研公司指出,尽管一些较大的压力点将会得到缓解,但通货膨胀率不会很快回落至美联储(Federal Reserve)的目标水平。目前美联储的通货膨胀率目标为2%,远低于5月实际录得的核心个人消费支出物价指数3.4%。报告指出,零售和制造业价格涨幅居前。
而且别忘了,瑞银集团(UBS)的首席经济学家保罗•唐纳文指出:“美国两党对于通胀问题的看法截然不同。”近期美国总统乔•拜登和共和党参议院少数派领导人米奇•麦康奈尔的讲话证实了唐纳文的观点。拜登总统表示,汽车价格很快就会回落到新冠疫情前的水平;麦康奈尔则称,通货膨胀使“所有东西都价格飞涨”。
唐纳文说,他们都错了。
但就冰淇淋而言,麦康奈尔可能是对。(财富中文网)
译者:钱功毅
Inflation has come for Unilever—and it will now be coming for you.
In the face of rising input costs, the Anglo-Dutch consumer goods giant—the makers of Ben & Jerry's ice cream, Hellman's mayonnaise, Dove shampoo and Sunlight detergent—has slashed its forecasted profits for the rest of the year, sending shares plummeting around 5.6% by midday in Europe on July 22.
In Unilever's half year results, released on July 22 morning, the company noted the prices of raw materials such as palm oil, packaging, freight and global distribution costs were rising at the fastest pace seen since 2008, and that the company was decreasing its operating margin expectations, a much-watched metric, from 19.8% to 18.8%. The new forecasted operating margins are near last year's pandemic levels as the company goes another year without reaching its 20% target.
Inflation is rising due to a combination of pent-up demand, global supply chain shortages and soaring commodities prices forcing companies to make a tough decision: either pass on the costs to consumers or absorb them, and watch profits erode. Unilever boasts 2.5 billion people across 190 countries use its brands every day.
Going forward, Unilever will be raising prices on their goods more quickly in markets such as Brazil and South Asia, while remaining more cautious in Europe not to slow consumption.
Unilever CEO Alan Jope noted that the cost volatility and timing of the price increases made it more difficult to predict what the company's operating profit would be, but reassured investors noting, "we are managing this dynamically and expect to maintain underlying operating margin for 2021 around flat."
Still, the move caught markets observers off guard. In Bank of America Securities investor note on Thursday, analysts expressed surprised by the cut guidance for operating margins, noting "management had come across as very confident on managing input cost pressures at the 1Q21 stage and even in mid-June."
They still hold a "buy" rating on the stock, and added that Unilever's share price drop—which is trading at a 20% discount to its peers—was not justified.
Grocery prices going up
Unilever isn’t the only one bumping up prices. Rival Proctor & Gamble are pushing up prices on diapers and feminine-care products by percentages in the mid-to-high single digits. David Taylor, chief executive of Procter & Gamble, said at the Fortune Global Forum in June, inflation was "very real."
"It’s pulp, it’s paper, it’s anything involving oil. Plastic packaging is going up. Trucking costs have gone up significantly. Ocean freight has gone up significantly. You are seeing it in a wide range of cost areas…It’s inevitable we will see an increase in inflation. How much? I don’t know.”
And according to research by S&P Global, this phenomenon is likely to stick around. The market research firm notes that while some big pressure points will ease, inflation will not drop back toward the Fed's target level any time soon. The central bank's current target stands at 2%, well below the core personal consumer expenditure metric which was recorded at 3.4% in May. According to the report, the retail and manufacturing sectors are leading the way with price rises.
And let's not forget, "inflation remains politically polarizing in the U.S.," notes Paul Donovan, UBS chief economist. Donovan fact-checked recent statements by President Biden—that car prices would return to pre-pandemic levels soon—and Republican Senate Minority Leader McConnell—that inflation was driving "the cost of everything through the roof."
They're both wrong, Donovan said.
But McConnell's probably right when it comes to ice cream.