7月19日,英国全面解除了长达几个月的封锁令。对英国而言,这相当于打败新冠病毒的“独立日”。要想了解新冠疫情如何继续分裂这个国家,不妨到推特(Twitter)上寻找答案。当天在推特上流行的标签话题是“自由日”、“瘟疫岛”和“人类清除计划”。
为什么人们会出现截然不同的情绪?
英国的新冠疫苗接种率全球最高,确实值得夸耀。但英国也有全球数量最多的现有新冠肺炎确诊病例,而且在最新的一波新冠疫情中,年轻人尤其是男性受到的影响特别严重。
据英国国家统计局(Office of National Statistics)统计,在6月的最后一周,男性占英国新冠死亡病例的55%。之前一周,男性新冠死亡病例的比例高达70%。
德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)分析师在7月19日上午向投资者发布的一份研究报告中表示,过去几周,15至40岁男性的新冠肺炎确诊病例大幅增加,首次出现了“明显的性别差异”。该投资银行在字里行间表现出极大的担忧。报告称,在欧洲杯(Euro Cup)总决赛英国队对阵意大利的比赛结束一周之后,欧洲可能出现了因为足球比赛而引发的新一波新冠疫情。德意志银行的分析师表示,从性别差异中“可以明显看出数以百万计现场观看欧洲杯总决赛的球迷的影响。”
感染病例激增也引发了投资者的避险情绪,7月19日下午,伦敦富时指数(FTSE)下跌2.3%。
投资公司Hargreaves Lansdown的高级投资与市场分析师苏珊娜•斯特里特写道:“随着新冠疫情带来的不确定性冲击金融市场,富时100指数(FTSE 100)的抛售潮加速。自由日并没有增加投资者的信心,反而因为英国大幅上升的感染率影响企业运营,耗尽了投资者的信心。”
新的疫情中心
英国新一波疫情的罪魁祸首是德尔塔变种病毒,它不仅在英国,在全世界都变成了主要病毒株。英国已经成为新冠疫情新的中心,7月17日当天新增确诊病例54,600例。
但到目前为止,鲍里斯•约翰逊政府的自由日经济重启计划并没有因此而放慢速度。
从7月19日开始,随着英国开放夜店、取消戴口罩的法律要求和对室内聚集人数的限制,英国人的免疫系统将进一步接受考验。
虽然取消了戴口罩的要求,但英国政府将保留影响深远的检测追踪计划,要求与新冠肺炎的确诊者有过密切接触的人员进行自我隔离。
最近,接种过两剂疫苗的英国卫生大臣赛义德•贾维德的新冠检测呈阳性,在英国政府高层引起了连锁反应,使该计划引起了关注。7月18日,英国首相鲍里斯•约翰逊和财政大臣辛伟诚(Rishi Sunak)均证实,在收到英国国家医疗服务体系(National Health Service)的新冠追踪应用程序的提醒之后,将根据规定自我隔离10天。
与许多人一样,我也因为接触过某位新冠确诊患者,收到了英国国家医疗服务体系的检测及追踪应用程序的提醒,并将自我隔离到7月26日星期一。pic.twitter.com/X57gDpwDqe
——鲍里斯•约翰逊(@BorisJohnson),2021年7月18日
亚当斯密研究所(Adam Smith Institute)称,目前英国有173万人在收到应用程序提醒后正在进行隔离,自我隔离者的规模之庞大已经对英国造成了严重破坏,这种情况被戏称为“Pingdemic”(自主隔离传染病)。这项服务已经导致公共交通和Iceland超市、Greene King连锁酒吧等公司都出现了人员短缺。亚当斯密研究所称到8月中旬,自我隔离人数将达到520万。
确诊病例激增
虽然英国的新冠疫苗接种计划大获成功,有64%的成年人接种了两剂疫苗,接种一剂疫苗的比例高达86%,但源自印度的德尔塔变异毒株传播速度更快,导致即使接种过一剂疫苗的年轻人也很容易受到感染。此外,阿斯利康(AstraZeneca)等公司的疫苗效果较弱,也可能成为防御缺口,比如核酸检测呈阳性的赛义德•贾维德所施打的就是阿斯利康疫苗。
英国首相约翰逊在宣布解封时称:“我们确实一直在强调会有第三波疫情。”他补充说:“很遗憾,我们必须接受更多人将死于新冠病毒的事实.”
英国政府解封的决定遭到了许多人的反对。有1,200多名科学家联合署名在医学杂志《柳叶刀》(The Lancet)发表公开信,称英国政府在7月19日取消大部分新冠防控措施的计划是一次“不道德的试验”,将给全世界带来严重威胁。
其他批评者指出,解封相当于快速建立“变异病毒工厂”,并形容新任卫生与社会保障部大臣赛义德•贾维德的态度“非常可怕”。
与此同时,下议院健康特别委员会主席、前卫生大臣杰里米•亨特对英国广播公司(BBC)表示,英国国家医疗服务体系面临的形势“非常严峻”,并且如果夏季住院率继续上升,英格兰可能要在秋季重新实行封锁。
任何挫折都可能让已经脆弱的经济复苏出现变数。据英国国家统计局统计,包括酒吧、夜店在内的酒店服务业受到新冠疫情的影响最为严重,消费者支出依旧只有疫情之前的70%。
与此同时,没有人向夜店消费者提醒疫情或者自我隔离。他们用各种方式庆祝“自由日”。
来自天堂的#自由日,伦敦中部,经过16个月之后夜店重新开门迎客。(财富中文网)
——本杰明•巴特沃思(@benjaminbutter),2021年7月18日
译者:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
7月19日,英国全面解除了长达几个月的封锁令。对英国而言,这相当于打败新冠病毒的“独立日”。要想了解新冠疫情如何继续分裂这个国家,不妨到推特(Twitter)上寻找答案。当天在推特上流行的标签话题是“自由日”、“瘟疫岛”和“人类清除计划”。
为什么人们会出现截然不同的情绪?
英国的新冠疫苗接种率全球最高,确实值得夸耀。但英国也有全球数量最多的现有新冠肺炎确诊病例,而且在最新的一波新冠疫情中,年轻人尤其是男性受到的影响特别严重。
据英国国家统计局(Office of National Statistics)统计,在6月的最后一周,男性占英国新冠死亡病例的55%。之前一周,男性新冠死亡病例的比例高达70%。
德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)分析师在7月19日上午向投资者发布的一份研究报告中表示,过去几周,15至40岁男性的新冠肺炎确诊病例大幅增加,首次出现了“明显的性别差异”。该投资银行在字里行间表现出极大的担忧。报告称,在欧洲杯(Euro Cup)总决赛英国队对阵意大利的比赛结束一周之后,欧洲可能出现了因为足球比赛而引发的新一波新冠疫情。德意志银行的分析师表示,从性别差异中“可以明显看出数以百万计现场观看欧洲杯总决赛的球迷的影响。”
感染病例激增也引发了投资者的避险情绪,7月19日下午,伦敦富时指数(FTSE)下跌2.3%。
投资公司Hargreaves Lansdown的高级投资与市场分析师苏珊娜•斯特里特写道:“随着新冠疫情带来的不确定性冲击金融市场,富时100指数(FTSE 100)的抛售潮加速。自由日并没有增加投资者的信心,反而因为英国大幅上升的感染率影响企业运营,耗尽了投资者的信心。”
新的疫情中心
英国新一波疫情的罪魁祸首是德尔塔变种病毒,它不仅在英国,在全世界都变成了主要病毒株。英国已经成为新冠疫情新的中心,7月17日当天新增确诊病例54,600例。
但到目前为止,鲍里斯•约翰逊政府的自由日经济重启计划并没有因此而放慢速度。
从7月19日开始,随着英国开放夜店、取消戴口罩的法律要求和对室内聚集人数的限制,英国人的免疫系统将进一步接受考验。
虽然取消了戴口罩的要求,但英国政府将保留影响深远的检测追踪计划,要求与新冠肺炎的确诊者有过密切接触的人员进行自我隔离。
最近,接种过两剂疫苗的英国卫生大臣赛义德•贾维德的新冠检测呈阳性,在英国政府高层引起了连锁反应,使该计划引起了关注。7月18日,英国首相鲍里斯•约翰逊和财政大臣辛伟诚(Rishi Sunak)均证实,在收到英国国家医疗服务体系(National Health Service)的新冠追踪应用程序的提醒之后,将根据规定自我隔离10天。
与许多人一样,我也因为接触过某位新冠确诊患者,收到了英国国家医疗服务体系的检测及追踪应用程序的提醒,并将自我隔离到7月26日星期一。pic.twitter.com/X57gDpwDqe
——鲍里斯•约翰逊(@BorisJohnson),2021年7月18日
亚当斯密研究所(Adam Smith Institute)称,目前英国有173万人在收到应用程序提醒后正在进行隔离,自我隔离者的规模之庞大已经对英国造成了严重破坏,这种情况被戏称为“Pingdemic”(自主隔离传染病)。这项服务已经导致公共交通和Iceland超市、Greene King连锁酒吧等公司都出现了人员短缺。亚当斯密研究所称到8月中旬,自我隔离人数将达到520万。
确诊病例激增
虽然英国的新冠疫苗接种计划大获成功,有64%的成年人接种了两剂疫苗,接种一剂疫苗的比例高达86%,但源自印度的德尔塔变异毒株传播速度更快,导致即使接种过一剂疫苗的年轻人也很容易受到感染。此外,阿斯利康(AstraZeneca)等公司的疫苗效果较弱,也可能成为防御缺口,比如核酸检测呈阳性的赛义德•贾维德所施打的就是阿斯利康疫苗。
英国首相约翰逊在宣布解封时称:“我们确实一直在强调会有第三波疫情。”他补充说:“很遗憾,我们必须接受更多人将死于新冠病毒的事实.”
英国政府解封的决定遭到了许多人的反对。有1,200多名科学家联合署名在医学杂志《柳叶刀》(The Lancet)发表公开信,称英国政府在7月19日取消大部分新冠防控措施的计划是一次“不道德的试验”,将给全世界带来严重威胁。
其他批评者指出,解封相当于快速建立“变异病毒工厂”,并形容新任卫生与社会保障部大臣赛义德•贾维德的态度“非常可怕”。
与此同时,下议院健康特别委员会主席、前卫生大臣杰里米•亨特对英国广播公司(BBC)表示,英国国家医疗服务体系面临的形势“非常严峻”,并且如果夏季住院率继续上升,英格兰可能要在秋季重新实行封锁。
任何挫折都可能让已经脆弱的经济复苏出现变数。据英国国家统计局统计,包括酒吧、夜店在内的酒店服务业受到新冠疫情的影响最为严重,消费者支出依旧只有疫情之前的70%。
与此同时,没有人向夜店消费者提醒疫情或者自我隔离。他们用各种方式庆祝“自由日”。
来自天堂的#自由日,伦敦中部,经过16个月之后夜店重新开门迎客。(财富中文网)
——本杰明•巴特沃思(@benjaminbutter),2021年7月18日
译者:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
For the English, July 19 marks a kind of Independence Day over COVID-19 as monthslong lockdown restrictions are eased across the country. And yet to see how the outbreak continues to divide the nation, look no further than Twitter. Hashtags like “Freedom Day,” “Plague Island,” and “The Purge” have been trending throughout the day.
Why such mixed emotions?
The country holds the bragging rights of one of the highest vaccination rates in the world. It also has one of the highest numbers of active COVID-19 cases in the world—and the latest wave is hitting the young and males particularly hard.
In the last week of June, men made up 55% of the COVID-19 deaths in the United Kingdom, according to the country's Office of National Statistics. The week before, males made up 70% of all COVID-19 deaths.
Cases have also been considerably growing in males ages 15 to 40 over the past few weeks—the first time there’s been "a notable gender split" in the disease, Deutsche Bank analysts said in a research note to investors on July 19 morning. The investment bank put in words the big fear that Europe may be glimpsing a kind of soccer-led spike in cases a week after the Euro Cup final match, pitting England against Italy. The gender split, Deutsche Bank analysts wrote, “strongly hints at the impact of millions of football fans watching the Euro football final.”
The spiking case load is also putting investors in a risk-off mood, with London's FTSE down 2.3% on July 19 afternoon.
"The FTSE 100 selloff has accelerated as strong undercurrents of COVID uncertainty wash through the financial markets," writes Susannah Streeter, senior investment and markets analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown. "Far from giving investors a jolt of confidence, Freedom Day has seen it evaporate, as sharply rising infection rates disrupt businesses across the U.K."
New epicenter
The big culprit is the Delta variant, which has become the dominant strain in not just the U.K., but globally. Britain has becomes a new epicenter for the disease, recording 54,600 daily new cases on July 17.
So far, that hasn't slowed down the Boris Johnson government's Freedom Day reopening plan.
From July 19 onward, English immune systems will be further tested as the U.K. opens nightclubs, ends lawful requirements for face coverings, and drops all limits on the number of people who can hang out indoors.
The masks may be dropping, but the government’s far-reaching test-and-trace program, which requires people to self-isolate when they come into contact with someone who has COVID-19, will remain in place.
The program has been in the spotlight lately as U.K. Health Secretary Sajid Javid, who was fully inoculated, tested positive for COVID-19, setting off a chain reaction in the highest circles of power. On July 18, Prime Mister Boris Johnson and Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak confirmed they would self-isolate for 10 days, as is required, after being “pinged” by the National Health Service (NHS) COVID tracing app.
Like so many people I've been pinged by NHS Test and Trace as I have been in contact with someone with COVID-19, and I will be self-isolating until Monday 26th July. pic.twitter.com/X57gDpwDqe
— Boris Johnson (@BorisJohnson) July 18, 2021
The number of people who are in self-isolation—colloquially called the "Pingdemic"—has caused massive disruptions in England as 1.73 million people are currently isolating after getting pinged, according to the Adam Smith Institute. The service has left public transport and other companies like supermarket Iceland and pub chain Greene King with staff shortages. This figure could rise to 5.2 million people by mid-August, the research group said.
Rising cases
Despite the U.K. having one of the most successful vaccination campaigns, with 64% of its adult population jabbed with both doses and a whopping 86% jabbed with one, the Delta strain, which originated in India, can spread quicker than its predecessors, leaving even partially vaccinated youths significantly less protected. Additionally, less effective jabs such as the AstraZeneca shot may also uncover some chinks in the armor—with Sajid Javid branding the vaccine in his arm when he tested positive.
At the time of the rules-relaxing announcement, Johnson noted, “We always did say there would be a third wave.” He added, “We must sadly reconcile ourselves to more deaths.”
There has been a lot of pushback on the rules-easing. More than 1,200 scientists backed a letter in the journal The Lancet saying that the U.K.’s plan to lift most coronavirus restrictions in England on July 19 is an “unethical experiment” that poses a serious threat to the rest of the world.
Other critics have noted that the move to lift the restrictions is like building a new “variant factory” at a fast rate, calling the attitude of the new Health and Social Care Secretary Sajid Javid “frightening.”
Meanwhile Jeremy Hunt, the chairman of the Commons health select committee and former health secretary told the BBC that the situation facing the NHS was "very serious," and that there was a danger England may need to go back into another lockdown in the autumn if hospitalization rates continued to increase during the summer.
Any further setback would strain an already fragile recovery. The hospitality sector, namely bars and clubs, has been hit hardest by the COVID-19 pandemic, with consumer spending still remaining 70% of pre-pandemic levels, according to the U.K.'s ONS.
Meanwhile, there's little talk of plagues or pings for England's clubbers. They rang in Freedom Day in style.
#FreedomDay from Heaven, central London, as nightclubs open again after 16 months
— Benjamin Butterworth (@benjaminbutter) July 18, 2021