基础设施周终于来了,不过,华尔街却把目光投向了未来。
尽管美国前总统特朗普在4年前便呼吁要重建美国道路和桥梁,但这个得到了广泛支持的愿景却从未实现,而总统拜登似乎正准备再次尝试推动此事。
这个重要的两党法案长达2700多页,未来几天之内,这个涉及5500亿美元的新预算预计将在参议院得到通过,然后再交由众议院投票。不过,众议院议长南希•佩洛西(Nancy Pelosi)曾表示,在参议院通过即将出台的预算协调方案(涵盖拜登政府“人类基础设施”抱负涉及的众多领域)之前,众议院不会对基础设施方案进行投票。该法案的推进意味着联邦政府划拨巨资改善美国破败实体基础设施的可能性越来越大。
根据这一两党法案,美国政府将划拨5500亿美元来改善全美的道路和桥梁,升级电网,并修建覆盖范围更广的宽带网络。该法案内容涉及的其他投资领域包括饮用水项目、铁路、机场、港口和航道。最终,销售相关产品的各大公司,从混凝土到建造设备再到电动交通工具,都将因该法案而受益。
然而,华尔街的投资者,也就是那些永远的预言者们,基本上都认为该法案的影响已经被市场消化了。
最近几天,跟踪75家基础设施行业首要跨国公司的标普全球基础设施指数仅上涨了0.4%。事实上,那些有望获得该法案投资的大公司对于该法案在周一的出现无动于衷。例如,卡特彼勒公司(Caterpillar)和迪尔公司(Deere)的股价在盘中还出现了下滑。Compass Point政策研究总监伊萨克•波尔坦斯基(Isaac Boltansky)对《财富》说,“这个两党框架法案中有一些明确的可投资主题,已经引发了某些投资者的重点关注。”
然而,这并不意味着基建法案所带来的投资机会已经彻底消失。晨星(Morningstar)美国市场首席策略师大卫•瑟卡拉(Dave Sekara)表示,对于雅各布工程集团(Jacobs Engineering Group)、Hubbell和霍尼韦尔(Honeywell)这类公司来说,依然还有很大的运作空间。电动汽车市场的参与者,例如福特这样的汽车制造商以及爱迪生国际公司(Edison International)这样的可再生能源公司,当然还有特斯拉,可能都将因此而受益。基建法案将划拨75亿美元,用于在全美打造电动汽车充电网络。
瑟卡拉对《财富》说:“在那些我称之为传统基础设施[公司]的企业当中,我觉得大多数公司的股价都已经上涨。因此在大多数情况下,我认为,这些股票说的好听点是合理估价,说的难听点,其中的大多数属于估值过高。为了在传统行业中寻找价值,我们将目光投向了次级影响。”
对于国会山的一些民主党来说,这个两党法案还不够周到,因为它并没有考虑民主党3.5万亿美元的预算协调计划,该计划旨在实现拜登政府在更广泛领域的基础设施抱负,包括儿童看护成本、教育和全美带薪休假等。纽约州民主党众议员亚历山大•奥卡西奥-科特兹(Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez)在周日的CNN采访中表示:“如果参议院不通过协调计划,我们将坚持我方的条件,而且在获得所有这些投资之前不会通过这个两党法案。”
就在佩洛西和奥卡西奥-科特兹这样的民主党一心想要通过协调计划的同时,国会山正纠结于财政部的债务上限问题,有鉴于此,华尔街很大一部分人士似乎将目光投向了即将出台的预算协调计划。
Compass Point的波尔坦斯基说:“总的来说,大多数投资者专注的是协调计划,而在该计划出现之时,在我看来,华盛顿将迎来疯狂的多事之秋。国会山涌现的政治风险将开始在9月份交汇,而对于投资者来说,这将成为一台颇有影响力的好戏。”(财富中文网)
译者:冯丰
审校:夏林
基础设施周终于来了,不过,华尔街却把目光投向了未来。
尽管美国前总统特朗普在4年前便呼吁要重建美国道路和桥梁,但这个得到了广泛支持的愿景却从未实现,而总统拜登似乎正准备再次尝试推动此事。
这个重要的两党法案长达2700多页,未来几天之内,这个涉及5500亿美元的新预算预计将在参议院得到通过,然后再交由众议院投票。不过,众议院议长南希•佩洛西(Nancy Pelosi)曾表示,在参议院通过即将出台的预算协调方案(涵盖拜登政府“人类基础设施”抱负涉及的众多领域)之前,众议院不会对基础设施方案进行投票。该法案的推进意味着联邦政府划拨巨资改善美国破败实体基础设施的可能性越来越大。
根据这一两党法案,美国政府将划拨5500亿美元来改善全美的道路和桥梁,升级电网,并修建覆盖范围更广的宽带网络。该法案内容涉及的其他投资领域包括饮用水项目、铁路、机场、港口和航道。最终,销售相关产品的各大公司,从混凝土到建造设备再到电动交通工具,都将因该法案而受益。
然而,华尔街的投资者,也就是那些永远的预言者们,基本上都认为该法案的影响已经被市场消化了。
最近几天,跟踪75家基础设施行业首要跨国公司的标普全球基础设施指数仅上涨了0.4%。事实上,那些有望获得该法案投资的大公司对于该法案在周一的出现无动于衷。例如,卡特彼勒公司(Caterpillar)和迪尔公司(Deere)的股价在盘中还出现了下滑。Compass Point政策研究总监伊萨克•波尔坦斯基(Isaac Boltansky)对《财富》说,“这个两党框架法案中有一些明确的可投资主题,已经引发了某些投资者的重点关注。”
然而,这并不意味着基建法案所带来的投资机会已经彻底消失。晨星(Morningstar)美国市场首席策略师大卫•瑟卡拉(Dave Sekara)表示,对于雅各布工程集团(Jacobs Engineering Group)、Hubbell和霍尼韦尔(Honeywell)这类公司来说,依然还有很大的运作空间。电动汽车市场的参与者,例如福特这样的汽车制造商以及爱迪生国际公司(Edison International)这样的可再生能源公司,当然还有特斯拉,可能都将因此而受益。基建法案将划拨75亿美元,用于在全美打造电动汽车充电网络。
瑟卡拉对《财富》说:“在那些我称之为传统基础设施[公司]的企业当中,我觉得大多数公司的股价都已经上涨。因此在大多数情况下,我认为,这些股票说的好听点是合理估价,说的难听点,其中的大多数属于估值过高。为了在传统行业中寻找价值,我们将目光投向了次级影响。”
对于国会山的一些民主党来说,这个两党法案还不够周到,因为它并没有考虑民主党3.5万亿美元的预算协调计划,该计划旨在实现拜登政府在更广泛领域的基础设施抱负,包括儿童看护成本、教育和全美带薪休假等。纽约州民主党众议员亚历山大•奥卡西奥-科特兹(Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez)在周日的CNN采访中表示:“如果参议院不通过协调计划,我们将坚持我方的条件,而且在获得所有这些投资之前不会通过这个两党法案。”
就在佩洛西和奥卡西奥-科特兹这样的民主党一心想要通过协调计划的同时,国会山正纠结于财政部的债务上限问题,有鉴于此,华尔街很大一部分人士似乎将目光投向了即将出台的预算协调计划。
Compass Point的波尔坦斯基说:“总的来说,大多数投资者专注的是协调计划,而在该计划出现之时,在我看来,华盛顿将迎来疯狂的多事之秋。国会山涌现的政治风险将开始在9月份交汇,而对于投资者来说,这将成为一台颇有影响力的好戏。”(财富中文网)
译者:冯丰
审校:夏林
Infrastructure week is finally here, though Wall Street is looking toward the future.
Four years after former President Donald Trump championed revitalizing America's roads and bridges, a vision that never materialized despite widespread support, President Joe Biden appears to be on the precipice of doing just that.
A major bipartisan package tallying more than 2,700 pages and $550 billion in new spending is expected to pass the Senate in the coming days before heading to the House of Representatives. And while Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi has indicated that the bill will not go up for a vote in the lower chamber until the upcoming budget reconciliation package is put forward—as it is expected to tackle many parts of the Biden administration's "human infrastructure" ambitions—the bill's advancement will represent the growing possibility of billions of federal dollars being doled out to improve the country's decaying physical infrastructure.
Under the bipartisan plan, the $550 billion will be allocated for improving roads and bridges across the country, updating the electrical grid, and building out a more expansive broadband network. Other areas of investment included in the bill's structure include drinking water projects, railroads, airports, ports, and waterways. As a result, companies selling products from concrete to construction equipment to electric vehicles all stand to benefit.
However, Wall Street investors, ever the soothsayers, have largely already priced in the bill's effects.
The S&P Global Infrastructure Index, a benchmark that tracks 75 global companies that help make up the infrastructure industry, has ticked higher only by 0.4% in recent days. In fact, big-name companies with exposure to the bill's investments showed little reaction to its introduction Monday. Shares in both Caterpillar and Deere, for instance, fell in trading. "There are some clear investable themes in the bipartisan framework that certain investors have sunk their teeth in" already, Isaac Boltansky, director of policy research for Compass Point, told Fortune.
But that's not to say the infrastructure bill's resulting investment opportunities have completely dried up. For companies like Jacobs Engineering Group, Hubbell, and Honeywell, there is still more room to run, according to Morningstar chief U.S. market strategist Dave Sekara. Others with exposure to the electric-vehicle market—including carmakers like Ford, renewable energy company Edison International, and, of course, Tesla—could all benefit as well. The infrastructure package allocates $7.5 billion to create an electric-vehicle charging station network around the country.
"Of what I consider to be the traditional infrastructure [companies], I think most of those have already moved higher. So in most cases, we think that those are, at best, fairly valued and most of them, at worst, overvalued," Sekara told Fortune. "To find value in the traditional space, we're looking to the secondary impacts."
For some Democrats on Capitol Hill, the bipartisan bill does not go far enough without consideration for the party's $3.5 trillion budget reconciliation plans, which is expected to tackle the administration's broader infrastructure ambitions around child care costs, education, and national paid leave. Said New York Democratic Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez during a CNN interview on Sunday, "If the Senate does not pass the reconciliation bill, we will uphold our end of the bargain and not pass the bipartisan bill until we get all of these investments in."
With Pelosi and other Democrats like Ocasio-Cortez focused on getting the reconciliation bill done at the same time that Capitol Hill wrestles with the Treasury Department's debt ceiling, much of Wall Street seems to be focused on the next package.
"By and large, most investors are focused on the reconciliation package that is set to follow in conjunction with what I think could be a frenetic and headline-driven period in Washington," Compass Point’s Boltansky said. "There is a confluence of political risk emanating from the Capitol beginning in September, and that's going to be one of the driving storylines for investors."